Daily Fundamental Dose - Page 77
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  1. #761
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
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    India
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    717
    Daily Fundamental Dose: 19 – May – 2017

    Hello Traders,

    Following a four-day long south-run that dragged the US Dollar towards lowest levels since November, the greenback managed to gain on Thursday after upbeat Philly Fed Manufacturing & Jobless Claims numbers, coupled with political turmoil in Brazil, shifted traders’ attention off from USD short. The EUR became the victim of profit-booking while GBP rallied noticeably after UK Retail Sales flashed highest reading in more than year. Further, AUD and NZD shed some of their early-day gains whereas CAD remained strong on positive Crude outlook as global oil producers are favoring extended supply-cut. Additionally, Gold and JPY refrained from extending their up-moves as strong US currency hurt safe-haven demand.

    During the start of Friday, safe-havens seems regaining their strength as latest news suggested US Navy is pushing another aircraft carrier near to Korean peninsula, which might not be liked by North Korea and can become a reason for heated situation. On the economic front, German PPI printed welcome number and helped EUR to restore its prior up-moves whereas commodity basket seems enjoying USD weakness.

    For the rest of the day, there seem fewer stats to observe except Canadian consumer-centric data-points, including Retail Sales & CPI. Forecasts concerning the same indicates improving situation at Canada and an extended CAD. Other than the economics, geo-political concerns at US, North Korea and Brazil might take the center-stage while Trump’s scheduled arrival at G7 could also offer intermediate headlines to make traders busy.

    With less economics on card and Trump’s meet at G7, chances of the USD to recover some of its latest losses are higher; however, any fierce announcements from North Korea and/or another twist in the cast against Trump campaign may not allow the US currency to remain strong.

    Technical Talk

    USDCAD continue struggling around 1.3570, breaking which 1.3525 & 1.3500 can be expected soon while 1.3650 may keep restricting the pair’s near-term advances. Further, NZDUSD couldn’t confirm “Falling-Wedge” and might re-test 0.6850 with 0.6930 being important resistance whereas USDCHF’s bounce from 0.9760 favors its meet to 0.9855-60.

    Have a nice trading-day ……

  2. #762
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Location
    India
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    717
    Daily Fundamental Dose: 22 – May – 2017

    Hello Traders,

    While political upheaval at US raised doubts on the pro-growth promises of Trump administration and dragged the US Dollar to six-month’s low during last week, traders now seem to think that the sell-off was too harsh and the Trump will surely please global investors soon, which in-turn triggered the greenback’s short-covering on Monday. On the other hand, EUR, the biggest gainer on strong economics, shed some of its latest profits while GBP dipped as UK policymakers recently threatened EU to quit Article 50 negotiation if the region demands a high divorce payment of 100 billion Euros. Further, AUD softened after S&P downgraded most AU financial institutions on housing market threat whereas NZD and CAD weakened on commodity basket pullback. Additionally, Gold and JPY declined a bit on USD’s strength but the Crude prices remained strong as Saudi Arabia said most of the oil producers are ready to extend production-cut accord by nine-months during May 25 meeting.

    On the political front, the North Korea conducted another missile-test but investors didn’t give much attention to it as US President is on trip to Middle East whereas Brazil’s President, Michel Temer, was impeached by country’s bar association over allegations of corruption.

    As we come closer to the month-end, fewer economics are on card to please momentum traders but early-week releases of Japan’s trade surplus and scheduled appearances of FOMC members and UK PM become crucial for traders to watch. The Canadian markets are closed due to Victoria Day and the Crude may remain shy ahead of Thursday’s production-cut meeting.
    Considering the latest market optimism in favor of the US Dollar, coupled with pre-established hawkish mood of the FOMC, chances of the greenback’s additional recovery are too high. However, any news against the Trump over Russian interference in election campaign, coupled with weaker GDP print and a bit neutral FOMC minutes, could raise bars for the US currency’s further advances.

    The EU and UK have fewer details line-up for publish, except EU PMIs & UK GDP, which may shift both the currency traders’ attention to Article 50 negotiation which is going through a rough patch. Also, commodity currencies are less likely to register much of the moves before Thursday’s oil-producers’ meet and hence it becomes safe to expect the US Dollar’s across the board up-moves that may even harm safe-havens, including JPY & Gold.

    Technical Talk

    Technically, EURUSD continue targeting 1.1230 unless breaking the 1.1150 ascending trend-line where as GBPUSD seems not that strong to sustain a 1.3000 break, which could raise hopes of 1.3120, and may revisit 1.2850 on a dip below 1.2930. Further, CADJPY might also fail to extend its latest advances as 82.55-65 resistance-confluence indicates its pullback to 82.00.

    Have a nice trading-day ……

  3. #763
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Location
    India
    Posts
    717
    Daily Fundamental Dose: 23 – May – 2017

    Hello Traders,

    In spite of having almost empty economic calendar, coupled with US President’s absence from home ground due to Middle East visit, the greenback refrained from registering heavy gains as Washington Post reported that Mr.Trump asked directors of National Intelligence & NSA in March to publicly deny his campaign’s link with Russia. Additionally, Fed governor, Lael Brainard’s, comments signaling weak inflation outlook also hurt the US Dollar. Further, EUR got a help from German Chancellor’s words that mentioned EUR was “too weak” while GBP couldn’t clear last-week’s high on concerns relating to Article 50. Moving on, commodity currencies refrained from rising in dearth of any major signals while Crude dropped on media reports of Trump administration plans to sell 50% of its emergy oil stockpile as a budget measure. Furthermore, JPY and Gold kept their north-run intact on US Dollar weakness.

    On early-Tuesday, markets got a shock from England when a deadly bomb blast at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester killed nearly 19 people & injured more than 50, making it the deadliest since 2005. As a result, safe-havens got boost and the US Dollar, which was lingering due to Trump concerns, witnessed additional selling. The commodity basket also failed to rise as market awaits Trump’s detailed budget for 2018 fiscal-year, starting from October.

    While renewed geo-political pressure propelled safe-havens and the EUR got counter-strength from greenback’s weakness, today’s EU Flash PMIs, German IFO Business Climate & US New Home Sales are likely second-tier details that can help foresee upcoming market moves. Moreover, details of the Trump budget, which is likely to rely on cost-cutting to offer tax-cuts, may offer additional information for traders to observe.

    With the allegations over Trump campaign getting murkier for the the future of Trump administration, a downbeat budget proposal, or the likely rejection by house of representative, could add more weakness in the US Currency. On the contrary, EUR might extend its north-run with upbeat data-points whereas GBP may become victim of latest attack. Furthermore, safe-havens can keep running high either on US or on Manchester attack but the commodity basket, together with commodity currencies, might regain their strength.

    Technical Talk

    Renewed risk-off sentiment is likely to drag USDJPY further towards 110.80 and then to 110.00 while 111.20 & 111.80 may restrict the pair’s near-term upside. Further, NZDUSD recently confirmed the “Falling-Wedge” and is likely heading to 100-day SMA level of 0.7055 whereas 0.6990 & 0.6950 can become immediate supports. In case of GBPAUD, the pair dropped below 1.7320 horizontal-line and is aiming 1.7240 with 1.7430 acting as adjacent resistance during pullback.

    Have a nice trading-day ……

  4. #764
    Join Date
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    India
    Posts
    717
    Daily Fundamental Dose: 24 – May – 2017

    Hello Traders,

    In absence of any fresh news concerning allegations to Trump campaign or geo-political tensions between US & North Korea, traders’ attention shifted towards safe-havens on Tuesday amidst Manchester blast. As a result, US Treasury yields manage to propel greenback prices when Trump administration’s detailed budget for 2018 was announced and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President, Patrick Harker, favored June rate-hike. The EUR and GBP remained sluggish even after witnessing upbeat data-points whereas JPY and Gold couldn’t gain buyers’ attention as greenback rise triggered market optimism. Further, commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, also shed some of their earlier gains but the Crude continued rising ahead of the Thursday’s global oil producers’ meet which is likely to deliver extended output-cut.

    On early Wednesday, greenback buyers got another boost when Moody’s investor services cut China’s debt rating which resulted into the extended drop by AUD, NZD and CAD while weaker than expected Australian Construction Work Done provided additional harm to the Aussie.

    Following not so heavy economic calendar during the start of the week, upcoming releases of FOMC meeting minutes, Oil producers’ meet and GDP figures from US & UK could offer busy trading sessions to market players.

    While a speech by ECB President, FOMC minutes, monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Canada and US Existing Home Sales are scheduled to release during today, investors may give high attention to Draghi’s speech and FOMC minutes as BoC is less likely to alter its present monetary policy and the US Existing Home Sales has less importance.

    Given the ECB President maintain its hawkish tone about the EU economy, the EUR may regain its strength but Mr. Draghi recently didn’t avail one such opportunity and rather remained neutral about the strength of the Euro-Area economy, which in-turn signal brighter chances of Euro’s further downside. At US, Trump’s absence from mainland could continue helping the global reserve currency if FOMC minutes also favor June rate-hike. Additionally, GBP might stretch its latest pullback a bit longer as Theresa May’s party dumped election campaigns amidst Manchester blast. Some polls were showing the ruling party has minor lead over their counterparts around weekend and hence may keep troubling the Pound traders.

    Technical Talk

    AUDUSD’s latest pullback from 0.7515 may drag the pair towards 0.7380 if short-term ascending trend line, at 0.7430, breaks while USDCAD has to clear 1.3570 in order to aim for 1.3645-50 with 1.3450 being nearby support. Further, EURJPY is expected to stretch its upside towards 125.75-80 but a dip below 124.50 immediate support can fetch the quote to 123.90.

    Have a nice trading-day ……

  5. #765
    Join Date
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    India
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    Daily Fundamental Dose: 25 – May – 2017

    Hello Traders,

    With the latest FOMC minutes signaling US policymakers’ go slow intention on rate-hike after the June promise is made, coupled with some raising doubts on US inflation, Bears continue to dominate greenback moves. However, Friday’s US GDP and Durable Goods Orders will become important for traders while forecasting near-term trend of the US currency. On the other hand, UK GDP and meeting of leading oil producers to discuss extension of OPEC-led output-cut, up for Thursday, are some additional details/events that could entertain market players.

    Before we discuss upcoming market catalysts, let’s first understand what happened during the present week.

    Greenback’s Weakness, Manchester Blast & Economics’ Play

    Even as Trump’s absence from US confined news on his alleged connection with Russia during election campaign, together with no reaction to North Korea’s second missile-test, the US Dollar continued shedding its gains as soft economics and dovish FOMC minutes raised doubts on the strength of world’s largest economy to sustain Fed’s promised rate-hikes.

    The EUR, on the other hand, managed to register noticeable strength on upbeat data-points and gained counter-strength from the USD whereas GBP remained sluggish as a deadly bomb blast killed nearly 22 people in Manchester. Further, safe-havens kept being traders’ favorite whereas commodity currencies had mixed signals to follow after Moody’s cut China’s credit rating and Crude prices rose on expected production-cut extension. Additionally, Bank of Canada, even after letting the monetary policy intact, sound more hawkish on its economy than expected and help CAD to stretch its north-run a bit longer.

    Wait For OPEC-led Production-Cut & GDP Numbers

    While ex-USD market sentiment have been ruling till now, today’s decision of the OPEC-led production cut and UK GDP, followed by tomorrow’s US GDP & Durable Goods Orders are something that traders are waiting eagerly.

    Considering latest informal communications from Russia and Saudi Arabia, it’s almost certain that global oil-producers might extend the six-month long supply-cut accord for another nine months’ period. However, some of the oil giants have recently said that there could be an option of additional three-month stretch to the supply-cut agreement if producers fail to curb supply-glut during expectedly agreed nine-months.

    At the economic calendar, UK GDP is likely to confirm the 0.3% initial estimate while US GDP may flash 0.9% mark versus 0.7% advance forecast and the Durable Goods Orders can register -1.4% contraction against +0.9% prior with Core reading likely printing +0.4% increase of orders compared to 0.0% earlier.

    On the political front, UK policymakers have stopped all the campaigns relating to June election after Manchester blast but polls showing chances of Theresa May’s reelection have deteriorate so far. At US, once US President comeback to home, case of his links with Russia and answer to North Korea will trouble USD whereas the Trump administration recently released full budget for 2018 fiscal year and the same should be approved by House of Representative to be a law.

    To sum up, US economics and politics aren’t showing a good-to-accept picture of world’s largest economy, which may hurt the greenback while GBP may gain if Theresa May wins snap election.

    Further, EUR has a strong economic support this time and might continue rising unless ECB raise an obstacle whereas commodity currencies have higher chances to remain strong if Crude production-cut accord takes place.

    Technical Analysis

    EURUSD’s sustained trading above 1.1200 continue favoring its run-up to 1.1310 and the 1.1330 while GBPUSD seems a contestant to claim 1.3170 if 1.3050 is broke with 1.2850 being near-term strong support. Additionally, USDJPY may struggle between 110.00 and 112.60 but the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are indicating 0.7555 and 0.7110 resistances to appear on the chart unless 0.7440 and 0.6980 respective supports are conquered.

    Have a nice trading-day ……

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