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  1. #741
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    FOREX NEWS: EURO BOOSTED BY ‘TOO WEAK’ COMMENTS, POUND STILL ON THE FENCE



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The Euro got another boost yesterday, this time from Germany’s Merkel, who mentioned that she considers the currency “too weak”. The comment sent the pair higher, rebounding around 1.1170 and moving past 1.1240 resistance.

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    Technical Outlook


    Although the current move up is overextended, the Euro found new strength in Chancellor Merkel’s comments and now the resistance at 1.1240 is in danger. The overall picture remains bullish and the next target is located at 1.1340 if 1.1240 can be decisively broken. However, it is highly likely to see a bearish retracement before the pair can reach that zone. Bearish divergence is still present (price is making higher highs and the Relative Strength Index is making lower highs), thus increasing the chances of a pullback.

    Fundamental Outlook


    The day’s highlight is the release of the German IFO Business Climate, scheduled at 8:00 am GMT. This is a survey with a very large sample size of about 7,000 German businesses, focused on the respondents’ view on current business conditions as well as a 6-month outlook. The forecasted value is 113.1 and usually the Euro is strengthened by a higher than expected number but the impact of this indicator is not very high.


    GBP/USD

    The pair dipped below support, in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but soon after, it climbed back to where the market opened. Overall yesterday’s session lacked substantial developments or a clear bias.

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    Technical Outlook

    The pair showed rejection near the 50 period EMA but also failed to move past 1.3050 again. These are indications that control doesn’t clearly belong to either side for the moment, although from a longer term perspective the pair is still in an uptrend. Today’s price direction will be mostly determined by Governor Carney’s testimony and the technical side will be secondary. The levels to watch remain 1.3050 followed by 1.3090 to the upside and the 50 period EMA to the downside.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:00 am GMT the Inflation Report Hearings take place. During these hearings, BOE Governor Mark Carney and several MPC members will testify before the Parliament's Treasury Committee on inflation and economic outlook. The Pound can be strongly affected by the testimony but the impact cannot be accurately predicted, thus caution is recommended.

  2. #742
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    Nov 2012
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    733
    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS MINOR SIGNS OF RECOVERY. FOMC MEETING MINUTES EYED



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey released yesterday posted a better than expected value but this didn’t help the Euro to push higher, mostly because the pair was already overbought for a long period.

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    Technical Outlook


    The uptrend failed to break 1.1240 for the time being, although the pair climbed briefly above this resistance. In the short term it’s very likely to see a move into 1.1170, followed possibly by an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Overall the pair is in a clear uptrend but it is also under bearish pressure.

    Fundamental Outlook


    At 12:45 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the First Conference on Financial Stability, organized in Madrid by the Bank of Spain. The speech may have an impact on the Euro and volatility may be affected, so caution is recommended.

    On the US Dollar side we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes, scheduled for release at 6:00 pm GMT. The document contains details of the reasons behind the latest interest rate decision but more importantly, it can contain hints about future monetary policy. If this is the case, the US Dollar will be strongly affected so, as always, we recommend caution.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound slipped lower yesterday but movement was choppy and lacked a strong bias. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was touched but offered good support and pushed the pair higher.

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    Technical Outlook

    The failure to break the 50 period EMA to the downside shows that the pair is not yet ready for a strong move south but on the other hand, the bulls also lack clear determination. It looks like the pair is still trapped in a range, but with a slightly bullish bias as long as it remains above the 50 period EMA. To the upside 1.3050 is still the first target and a strong resistance.

    Fundamental Outlook


    The Pound will not be affected by any major economic indicators today but the pair’s direction will be influenced by the contents of the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

  3. #743
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    Nov 2012
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    733
    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ON SHAKY GROUND: ADVANCES AGAINST POUND, LOSES GROUND AGAINST EURO



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The pair had a flat day before the release of the FOMC Minutes but volatility increased at the time of the announcement and the Dollar weakened. The support at 1.1170 is still intact and shows clear rejection at the time of writing.

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    Technical Outlook

    As long as the pair remains above 1.1170 support and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish, anticipating a move into 1.1240 resistance and possibly above it. Almost all of yesterday’s price action took place very close to the mentioned support, so this level is clearly important for short term movement and a break would indicate that the bears are winning the battle and would make the 50 EMA the first target.

    Fundamental Outlook


    Today the two currencies will not be affected by major economic indicator releases but the OPEC Meetings take place in Vienna and this may influence the markets to a certain extent. Also, keep in mind that German and French banks will be closed in observance of Ascension Day.


    GBP/USD

    Overall the pair had a bearish session yesterday and the US Dollar losses seen at the time of the FOMC Minutes release were quickly erased. Price is now trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which is a bearish sign.

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    Technical Outlook

    As long as the pair is trading below 1.2990 and below the 50 EMA, our bias is bearish for the short term, anticipating a move into 1.2900. It must be noted that the Stochastic has moved into oversold territory, so a potential move into the mentioned support might be followed by a bounce higher. Overall the pair remains in an uptrend but control doesn’t clearly belong to either side.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 8:30 am GMT the Pound will be affected by the release of the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product, expected to show a change of 0.3%, same as previous. This version of the GDP is less important than the Preliminary but more important than the Final so we can expect to see some movement, especially if the actual change will differ from analysts’ forecast; better than expected numbers usually strengthen the Pound.

  4. #744
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    Nov 2012
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    FOREX NEWS: CAN THE US DOLLAR BOUNCE BACK? U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT EYED



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday the pair spent the entire session bouncing between support and resistance, without breaking either of them. The economic scene was calm, without major releases from either side.

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    Technical Outlook


    By failing to break 1.1240, the pair printed a lower high yesterday and this suggests that we may see a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average in the near future. Price remains in an uptrend for the time being but the bulls are starting to lose their clear control and a move below the 50 EMA would further weaken the uptrend. To the upside the first important barrier remains 1.1240, followed by 1.1340.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 12:30 pm GMT the Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product is released, showing changes in the total value of goods and services generated by the economy. This is the main gauge of economic performance and usually, higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.9% compared to the previous 0.7%.

    Also today the G7 Meetings start and will be attended by representatives of the 7 industrialized nations. The matters discussed may have an impact on the pair’s movement, so caution is recommended.


    GBP/USD

    British GDP numbers released yesterday disappointed and this reversed an earlier climb above 1.2990 resistance. Overall the session had choppy price action, with a bearish bias.

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    Technical Outlook

    If the bears can push price lower, keeping the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we are likely to see a move into the support at 1.2900. A push above the 50 EMA will probably take the pair above 1.2990 – 1.3000 and closer to 1.3050. From a longer term perspective the pair is in an uptrend but the break of the 50 EMA signals a possible short term bear market.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will not be affected by any important economic indicators today but UK and US representatives will attend the G7 Meetings and this can influence the pair overall.

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