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  1. #721
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    Nov 2012
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    714
    FOREX NEWS: EURO IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS THE FRENCH ELECTION SHAKES THE MARKET



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Friday the pair showed mixed movement, first descending into the support at 1.0680 and then bouncing above 1.0710; economic data came close to analysts’ expectations, so the impact was mostly overlooked.

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    Technical Outlook

    The 50 period Exponential Moving Average together with the level at 1.0680 created a very strong confluence zone of support, which acted as a springboard for price and immediately pushed it higher. Under normal circumstances, we would anticipate a continuation of the bullish advance, but given the important French Presidential Election that took place over the weekend, we maintain a neutral stance and recommend caution.

    Fundamental Outlook


    The Euro will be affected throughout the day by the French Presidential Election and this will probably be a reason for irregular price action, with alternating periods of high and low volatility.

    At 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate is released, expected to show a reading of 112.4. This is a well-respected survey, with a large sample of about 7,000 businesses, that asks respondents to rate the current level of business conditions, as well as a 6-month outlook; under normal circumstances, a higher than anticipated reading strengthens the Euro.


    GBP/USD

    The pair dropped Friday, mostly due to a worse than expected value of the British Retail Sales (forecast -0.3%; actual -1.8%) but the support at 1.2770 couldn’t be broken and price returned above it after a temporary dip below.

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    Technical Outlook


    The support at 1.2770 proved once again too strong and the pair bounced higher after a failed attempt to break it. This shows that the bears still cannot build enough pressure and the bulls remain in control but for the time being the pair is trapped between support (1.2770) and resistance (1.2855). A break of support will probably take price into the 50 period EMA, while a break of resistance will make 1.2905 the first target but the pair’s movement will likely be affected by the French Presidential Election.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today but the markets will be affected by the French Presidential Election so we recommend caution throughout the day.

  2. #722
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    Nov 2012
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    714
    FOREX NEWS: EURO GETS A BOOST FROM THE FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The week opened with a huge upside gap of almost 150 pips, generated by the French Presidential Election. The pair is now sitting above several levels, which were previously resistance.

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    Technical Outlook

    The gap took price to a high of 1.0890 but afterwards the pair started to range and the bullish advance stopped. Usually, gaps are closed, meaning that price will eventually return to the point where the gap originated but the time it takes for price to move there is unknown. We could very well see a push into the high at 1.0905 but it’s more likely to get another ranging trading session; for now, caution is recommended, until the pair chooses a clear direction.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey will be today’s only notable release, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 123.7, which is a drop from the previous 125.6. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding economic and business conditions; this large sample is what makes it important, generating US Dollar strength if the actual reading surpasses analysts’ expectations.


    GBP/USD

    Yesterday the pair wasn’t much affected by the French Election and instead remained confined in a relatively tight range, with low volatility.

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    Technical Outlook


    As long as the pair remains confined inside the channel created by 1.2770 support and 1.2855 resistance, we consider it in a range and we have a neutral directional bias. From a longer term perspective the pair is in an uptrend and we expect a continuation but if 1.2770 support is broken, we will most likely see a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will not be affected by any major economic releases, so the pair’s direction will be determined by the technical aspect and by the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey.

  3. #723
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    Nov 2012
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    714
    FOREX NEWS: EURO BREAKS OUT, POUND STILL STUCK IN A RANGE



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The Euro continued its advance to the upside yesterday and the pair managed to pierce through the high at 1.0905. The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey showed a disappointing value of only 120.3 (forecast 123.7) and this weakened the US Dollar, facilitating the climb.

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    Technical Outlook

    Now that the pair broke the previous significant high at 1.0905, we expect to see a touch of 1.0950 resistance, followed possibly by a move into the psychological resistance at 1.1000. It must be noted that both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are clearly overbought, thus increasing the chances of a move down, below 1.0900. Also, the weekly gap is not closed and usually price returns to where the gap originated; however, the time frame for this to happen cannot be anticipated.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Euro and US Dollar both have a slow day ahead, in terms of economic news releases, so the main driver of price will be the technical aspect.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound-Dollar remained in a relatively tight range, with low volatility for the most part of yesterday’s trading session. Overall the session was bullish but price is still inside the horizontal channel.

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    Technical Outlook

    The pair touched several times the support at 1.2770 and each time it bounced higher, so for today we expect to see a touch of 1.2850 – 1.2855 resistance zone, which is also the upper boundary of the horizontal channel. If that zone is broken, we will most likely see an extended move into 1.2905. Keep in mind that until one boundary of the channel is broken decisively, the pair is in range-mode, without a clear bias.

    Fundamental Outlook


    Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected today by any economic news releases, so the main focus will be on the technical side.

  4. #724
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    Nov 2012
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    714
    FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON ECB FOR RATE DECISION AND PRESS CONFERENCE



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was mostly bearish, with price dropping after a perfect bounce at 1.0950 resistance. The pair wasn’t affected by major economic releases and most of the move was technical.

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    Technical Outlook

    Even if yesterday the sellers managed to take the pair below 1.0900, the bias remains bullish as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, this bearish move may continue, considering that the Relative Strength Index was overbought for a long time and is now moving down with good momentum. It must be noted that today the technical aspect will be secondary as traders around the world will focus on Mario Draghi’s attitude and answers during the ECB Press Conference.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today all eyes will be on the European Central Bank for the interest rate announcement, scheduled at 11:45 am GMT. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.00% but usually the event creates volatility nonetheless. Later, at 12:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference discussing the rate decision; he will also answer journalists’ questions and usually this part creates strong movement on Euro pairs.

    At the same time (12:30 pm GMT) the U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released, showing changes in the total value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of at least three years. Numbers above forecast (1.5%), usually generate US Dollar strength.


    GBP/USD

    The pair remained in a tight range and showed choppy movement yesterday. It is currently in a consolidation phase, inside a horizontal channel.

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    Technical Outlook

    The lack of economic releases for the Pound is part of the reason why the pair moved sideways the entire week so far and until the horizontal channel created by 1.2855 and 1.2770 is broken, we expect to see more of the same. Our bias remains bullish, expecting a move into the resistance at 1.2905 but a break to the downside would invalidate this scenario.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Similar to the rest of the week, today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic news releases, so the pair’s direction will be affected by the technical aspect and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders.

  5. #725
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    714
    FOREX NEWS: KEY DATA TO END THE TRADING WEEK: UNITED STATES AND UNITED KINGDOM GDP



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The Euro initially strengthened yesterday when ECB’s Draghi mentioned that downside risks to the economy have diminished but soon after, the market turned and the pair crossed back below 1.0900, heading towards 1.0850.

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    Technical Outlook

    The pair is still facing strong support at 1.0850 and 1.0830 but bearish pressure has clearly increased and we expect a break of these levels, followed by an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If price can move below the 50 EMA, we expect to see an extended move down, possibly to where the weekly gap originated. Even if this will be the case, we will most likely see bullish pullbacks until price closes the gap; also, we don’t expect to see a closing of the gap during one day. A move back above 1.0900 would invalidate such a scenario for now.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today the focus shifts towards the US Dollar for the release of the U.S. Advance version of the Gross Domestic Product. The GDP is an economy’s main gauge of overall performance and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the currency; also the Advance version is the most important of the three and this increases its importance. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the forecast is 1.3%.


    GBP/USD

    The pair continued slowly but surely to the upside, exiting the horizontal channel that confined it for more than a week. However, the resistance at 1.2905 stopped upside momentum.

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    Technical Outlook

    The pair is very likely to retrace lower from 1.2905, considering that the Relative Strength Index is overbought and price travelled a long distance to the upside (compared to the movement seen during the last week). If this is the case, the first barrier is represented by the previous resistance at 1.2855, which now may turn into support; however, we don’t exclude the possibility of a move back inside the horizontal channel.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released today at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show a change of 0.4%. As mentioned above the GDP is the main gauge of economic performance and higher values usually strengthen the currency.

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