ISIS and Hollande in a tie for popularity. One in six French citizens sympathises with the Islamist militant group ISIS, also known as Islamic State, a poll released this week found – see the thumbnail chart. The poll of European attitudes towards the group, carried out by ICM for Russian news agency Rossiya Segodnya, revealed that 16% of French citizens have a positive opinion of ISIS. This percentage increases among younger respondents, spiking at an eye popping 27% for those aged 18-24. A recent poll placed French president Francois Hollande’s approval rating at just 17%.
So yes, ISIS, the brutal regime, who beheads its foes, massacres whole villages, buries people alive and forces you to observe their oppressive religion, is in a statistical tie with President Hollande. You might think, well there a lot of Arabs in France – but they are only 9% of the population. This does not explain entirely this poll. So what does this poll really say and what effect if any does this have on the global economy?
I am sure if we plucked many of these young pro-European ISIS supporters, away from their iPhones and Xboxes, and put them into the real middle if the ISIS state, their response might be a little different. But nevertheless, what it does show is the growing frustration of both adults and more specifically young folks in the EU with its political leaders and the economy. EU youth unemployment is around 22%, about the same in France and even more in other countries – click here. The key problem? Lack of opportunity, brought on by economic policies of our leaders. Most people don’t really support the ISIS, they just want to send a message to their leaders.
This is not just an EU issue either. This same story can be found in the US and frankly around the world, to varying degrees. The wealth gap and the growing lack of opportunities for people to even survive are having a global frustrating effect. It is not just jealousy of the rich. If you are doing well and someone just does a little better, this maybe considered jealousy. But when you are going down while a few are getting rich, you begin to believe the system is rigged and your not jealous, rather you want to get back the money they stole. Of course, this is fertile ground for recruitment into all kinds of radical and global destabilizing groups – ISIS is just one of the more extreme manifestations of this.
The economy to a small extent and for sure the markets are in an up swing today. This will not last forever. The next down swing will be horrendous, if leaders do not do something – and do it fast. Social dis-cohesion will lead to radical politics and even more radical economic policies. In the end spelling the end to this recent historic bull market. Storm clouds are building, the only thing we have to work out as traders, is the timing.
Blue Point Trading, William Thompson