Hello Dear
I am trading Forex for more than 7 years
But still losing!
Most of my trade decisions are wrong and ends with loss.
Now I am trying to build a software to combine some other traders who are losing in Forex like me.
If we can trade together we surely can reduce risk of wrong decision.
Say for example two traders A and B both have success rate of making right trade decision is around 40%.
So when they trade individually each of their trade decision has 60% probability to be wrong.
Now if they trade together and execute their decisions only if both of them agreed then the probability of making wrong decision will reduced to 0.6x0.6 = 0.36
So probability of making right decision increase up to 64%.
In this way we can reduce risk and increase profit probability by including as many traders as possible in our group.
If you are facing the same issue, please join with me to test the idea in demo account.
Here attached the software, test it in your end and let me know how it can be improve to make it more useful
Note: updated copy of the application uploaded on October 26, 2014
If you have been trading for 7 years and losing money, joining with someone else who is also losing money will certainly not enhance your performance. What you need is either a good coach or mentor to teach you some new skills as well as to break whatever bad habits you have acquired by (I assume) trying to do it yourself.
If you don’t have a coach or someone who can guide you, then you need to keep a trading journal and find out [B][I]exactly[/I][/B] what it is you keep doing that makes you loose money. So, one, you need more knowledge and skill than you currently have and two, you need to pinpoint what it is that you keep doing consistently that gets you in trouble.
Asking other traders to join you in the exercise is akin to the blind leading the blind and will not help you nor any other trader.
Thanks for your reply
But the logic given above doesn’t make any sense?
We can remember 'two head is better than one’
When two or more traders agreed with a trade decision that should be better than their individual decisions.
It also help them to overcome emotional trading, one’s emotion can be balanced by other - isn’t it?
I think here is a misunderstanding about 'Joining with other loosing traders’
There are no absolutely loosing trader in Forex, who loose all of his traders.
If some one can find a way to loose 100% trade, he can easily reverse his trade decision to make it 100% win - isn’t it?
So, everyone in Forex trading has certain probability of loosing and wining for each of his trade.
When a trader can make more than 50% right decision he can be a winner
Now, if two traders share their trade decisions with each other and execute only those decisions where both of them are agreed about market movement - that should have higher probability to win than their individual decisions.
There is no following a Guru in this system, just reducing risk by avoiding trades those are not agreed by others
i’ve made many modifcations to the way i trade recently
in the past month my win rate was only about 40% yet i am up 3% over that period
being profitable is not [U]purely[/U] about win ratio
secondly, i am sure you are well aware that 95% of all forex traders are loosers. what you are not understanding my friend is that the crowd as a collective are LOOSERS. what you are proposing is to try and group a mini crowd of your own together …but what you are not understanding is that the CROWD ARE LOOSERS. By clumping together a bunch of loosers it will not make you profitable. you will remain one of the 95% of unprofitable traders and be here unprofitable for another 7 years if you go down that path i can assure you
So, you think it’s only GURU’s world!
2-3% extra ordinary people can make profit and all other lose?
Combined effort of many traders can’t improve probability of win in a trade?
When a number of traders analyze market separately and make their trade decision - if they can’t be right then the question is ‘can they all become wrong at the same time?’
from your responce it appears that you’ve never heard of the 95% thing. if this is indeed the case quite frankly i am shocked that you could be trading for 7 years and not have heard of that.
around 5% of traders are profitable over the long term. the other 95% loose
in forex everyone is not a winner. this is not like school or college where you go in and study and most people end up getting a job after their qualifications. in forex most people end up [U]unprofitable[/U]
and what you are forgetting is that most traders will not be trading the same as you. how will you make a decision if most of the traders are trading a differant strategy for you. even if you are trading the same strategy. no two people are gonna trade it [U]exactly[/U] the same. the only way that might happen if it is some simple crossover system requiring no skill at all, …and im sure you must be aware of how profitable those systems are in the long term.
do you think 50 mediocre chess players with a ranking of say 1500, if they got together on the same team for a chess match could beat a chess champion like gary kazparov?
I know 95% of Forex trader lose, but they are trading individually, and emotional trading is one of the most important factor for losing. By combined effort we can overcome personal emotion.
And yes, I know people are using different system to make their trade decision - and that can be very helpful in team work. Say for example trader A is using a system X. He has taken a decision to buy EUR/USD for 20 pips TP and 30 Pip SL. Trader B is using system Y. And from his analysis he found that the TP should be 15 or SL should be 40 or this trade may not be profitable at all. Now if both of them share this findings then the combined decision can be better than individual one.
Think about 10 traders using 10 different trading system and all of them agreed that a trade should be profitable from their individual different trading system - do you think all of them can be wrong at the same time??
Finally, playing Chess and trading Forex is not same in any way. Just one move in Chess can make you looser but in Forex if you can make 80% wright decision(i.e 20 mistake in 100 move) you can easily remain in profit.
To the OP: First of all respect for your endurance. Having said that, if you have been loosing money for seven years than there seems like something is wrong. I have no idea on what you do and how you do it, but after seven years you should have gotten somewhere. The 95% failure rate is optimistic and I think we may be closer to 98% of people who really succeed as traders.
The good thing is you have not given up and as I said I respect that, but at some point you may want to ask yourself if trading is the right thing for you. I do not mean to discourage you here and by all means keep at it as maybe you will get your head around it in the next three years (maybe sooner, maybe later). Look at all your past trades (assuming you kept a journal) and weed out everything which caused you losses, find something in common, see what’s leftover and go from there.
Thanks for your advice
But this post is not about my loosing
In fact I didn’t lose too much real money in Forex, I didn’t invest much as I couldn’t find a profitable way!
I am working in building software, EA, indicator for other traders.
This post is about the idea of sharing trade decision among a group of traders.
I thinks that can be helpful to avoid wrong trades and personal emotion
The attached application is an experimental effort.
By using this software a group of trader all around the world can share their opinion about a trade decision quickly.
I am looking for some other traders like me who can’t make profit individually and interested to try it.
Look Hasan, no one is trying to discourage you here. Simply to point out that your reasoning needs to be re-examined. I know what you are saying, it is hard to trade, it might be easier to trade with the combined efforts of a group of people and I agree with you.
There are many organizations that already exist where a group of traders trade collectively. It’s called a fund management company. [B][I]But[/I][/B], the thing is, these traders are all trained under one system and they all have proper education when it comes to trading. It is not a collection of regular people who have bits and bobs of information trying to trade together. Each individual is very schooled in the fundamentals of trading and they all have the same mindset. If you don’t have a good foundation, then no matter what strategy you use will fail.
So what we are all saying is, get a proper education first. Find out where your weak points are. Trading is 10% technical and 90% psychological, in my humble opinion. What you need is to be in a group of [B][I]successful[/I][/B] traders and then find out what it is you need to learn and improve on. Do you see what I’m saying? We are all just wanting to help you here, but you also got to take a step out for a moment and see things from a different perspective.
Allow me to state the obvious if others have not already…you have been losing in forex for the last seven years and now want to build up what seems like an ea to limit the loss with others who have been losing as heavily as you have…do you see where I am going with this?
Nope? Well, there’s not a chance in a million that I would purchase a trading product from a trader who has been losing steadily for the last seven years. Sorry, did not mean to sound harsh but that would be the reaction of anyone you approach. Have you considered the futures or stocks? Just a suggestion…and good luck.
You are thinking a bit more than i said!!
For sure, I am not selling anything here
You can download and run the application to see what it is.
There is a ‘How does it work’ section in help menu for better understanding what I am developing.
Thanks
Thanks
Finally I found one who is thinking logically!
Yes, it has a game sprite to make people serious about their response
To earn more point you have to respond seriously and to keep the system running you have to spend point to submit your trade proposal.
If we get a number of traders active in this game - finally we may get a leader at the top of the chart.
