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  1. #221
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by RISKonFX View Post
    Do you ever find Fridays are pathetic, at least that's my point of view regarding FX movements.

    I rarely trade on a Friday, and in most instances Mondays too - but then again a three day week cant be complained about...

    I have a significant correlation between the day of the week and averaged returns and yield of trades taken for these two days, it's not rosy
    Hiya! Thanks for stopping by!

    Yes, I totally agree, I also used to recommend traders to ignore Mons and Fris. as I usually did myself. But I am in a transient stage at the moment. I had only ever traded currencies for many years, but I have now swapped over to crude and I am only in my 3rd month so far. So I am trying and testing and evaluating everything from scratch. Mons are clearly a non-event but I am not yet sure about Fridays, especially with the Baker-Hughes release on Fris which is, or at least has been, traditionally very relevent.

    I would even go so far as to suggest that the mornings generally are not very active and it is worth just turning up for the NY session.

    But not only have I swapped from forex to commodities, well oil anyway, but I am also trying to extend my trade lengths from intraday to several days or more - which is why I am also tracking Turbo's High-5 method here (on paper so far). It has gone well so far, but when backtesting it during the latter parts of last year it didn't do so good in Crude Oil! So I am trying to combine the best of my own methods with the High-5 principles.

    But I suspect you are right and Fridays are probably a waste of time here as well....

    Have you ever tried any commodities?

  2. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manxx View Post
    I had only ever traded currencies for many years, but I have now swapped over to crude and I am only in my 3rd month so far. So I am trying and testing and evaluating everything from scratch.
    And how do you find the transition from FX to Brent from a PA point of view. I've often tried to simply overlay my FX trading system onto Brent, Nat.Gas & WTI; admittedly with little success [on demo]. The parameters certainly would require some quantified adjusting, which I just dont have the time do at the moment. Ironically though, my FX system is 'self-adjusting' from a volatility point of view.

    Unfortunately, the key driver of my FX system is using round number levels as areas of interest - if a certain commodity doesn't follow this routine then it's back to the drawing board when considering anything else other than FX.

    I have no reason to move away from FX at this point in time, but in the medium term future I would like to open up to opportunities within commodities and perhaps indices.
    Last edited by RISKonFX; 05-13-2017 at 01:06 PM.

  3. #223
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by RISKonFX View Post
    And how do you find the transition from FX to Brent from a PA point of view. I've often tried to simply overlay my FX trading system onto Brent, Nat.Gas & WTI; admittedly with little success [on demo]. The parameters certainly would require some quantified adjusting, which I just dont have the time do at the moment. Ironically though, my FX system is 'self-adjusting' from a volatility point of view.

    Unfortunately, the key driver of my FX system is using round number levels as areas of interest - if a certain commodity doesn't follow this routine then it's back to the drawing board when considering anything else other than FX.

    I have no reason to move away from FX at this point in time, but in the medium term future I would like to open up to opportunities within commodities and perhaps indices.
    So far, the transition has worked out better than I expected. I am trading cfd's on WTI rather than Brent. I chose WTI over Brent only because there is only a 1-hour break each evening whereas with Brent there is a 3-hour daily break. But I have been wondering whether Brent would afterall be better since it is a more widely used global standard than WTI and therefore levels like $50 are more relevant from a PA point of view.

    To be honest, I don't really have a "system" as such. I treat my charts as the "tools of my trade" and use them as guides rather than rules. They keep me disciplined but not incarcerated. Therefore they tend to fit anywhere, it is my interpretation that needs adapting to different circumstances.

    I think I am in a minority of one on BP since I just use a few MA's and their crossovers and don't really get on with PA at all in terms of S & R levels and patterns, etc. I tend to mess around a bit with my MA's but my core trading method has been the same for years, ever since I started drawing my own daily charts by hand in my banking days! My main interest is in using multiple timeframes, though, and I jump from daily/4H to 1H/15m/5m etc depending on how I see the current overall movement potential - as you saw last Friday, that was definitely a 15m/5m day!

    But I do feel that Crude Oil does tend to "honour" technicals. I have seen some S & R lines respected and the widely watched 200SMA does seem to carry some influence. But I think there are some very different fundamentals and practices in Oil that I have not seen before in forex. A lot of this is due to the size of interest from the industry itself. For example, after OPEC started its production cuts last December the price rose sharply but then fizzled out. It was not that the market changed from bullish to bearish but simply that the US producers, who have a B/E of $20-$40 per barrel started to lock in their profits for 2017 and 2018 and even apparently partly for 2019, too! This apparently is why the US producers can carry on massively increasing their production towards record levels regardless of where the prices go. Naturally, there is also the huge money management and hedge funds that are more speculative!

    I just like the fact that there is a concrete product and an entire, specific industry underlying my trading. It adds an entirely different dimension to trading and price movement. And the oil industry just happens to fascinate me. Its production, shipping, refining, companies, countries, environmental issues and general impact on global economics - it is never-ending!

    But it is scary, too! Oil sometimes seems strangely slow to react to fresh input compared with forex, but when it does move it is fast and far! Having spent the bigger part of my entire working career in risk analysis and control in banking and industry, I am more at home identifying and limiting risk rather than seeking it out - which is not maybe the best quality for a trader! So, although I would like to extend my trading horizons to days and even weeks, I am not ready for that yet! But on the other hand, the short term trading is quite ridiculous with 5-pip spreads on cfd's! I should, and probably will, swap to futures once I feel ready to continue long term with Oil, but that will mean changing brokers and I don't want to do that until I am convinced about this change.

    That's why this thread is just kind of me thinking out loud and not necessarily very reliable for anyone else! But it is great to chat with others like yourself sometimes too! So thanks again for your time and interest and you input is welcome any time!

  4. #224
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    Short-term trading still seems the best way as we approach the OPEC meeting (1Hour => 15m has been just great, but wearisome watching!)....but which means there is less to actually talk about!

    It is becoming difficult in the oil markets to understand why do organisations insist on reporting data which is not only contradictory to each other and but also totally out of line with the so-called "experts'" opinions. Is it that the data compiled by the organisations is so unreliable or that the industry analysts don't know how to compile it - or are they simply looking at different things? I mean, how difficult is it to add up the content of crude storage vessels at a certain date? Apparently very difficult!

    Yesterday's API release on oil stocks reported a build of 882,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, compared to analyst expectations for a draw of 2.3 million barrels for the week ending May 12. Not only are these figures wildly different, but in totally different directions.......let's see tonight if the EIA is any closer to either of these figures!

    But the end result is we get headlines like these three, from the same author, only a few weeks apart:

    Oil Markets Whipsawed As API Reports Unexpected Crude Build - Apr 25, 2017
    Bullish API Data Prevents Oil From Falling Further - May 02, 2017
    Oil Prices Slip After U.S. API Reports Build In Crude Stocks - May 16, 2017

    OK, comment on issues like the likely impact on future stock levels and prices from OPEC developments, etc is educated opinion, but Oil stocks are current, concrete, factual data - so why are these reports so unreliable and, if unreliable, why bother reporting on them, or trade according to them?

    But, that is the nature of the trader animal, the elusive carrot and the eternal herd. It is hungry and wants feeding, and will eat whatever it is given - good, bad, or indifferent. And others are paid to feed it...................if nobody stirs the spoon we all get bored and go home hungry!

    We are close to the OPEC meeting now, and, as we already saw at the weekend, we can expect to see the surprise rabbits being pulled out of the hat. Russia and Saudi Arabia already pulled out the "extending the agreement beyond the anticipated year-end". There will no doubt be more of the same on and before the day....or should we say that if there is not more of the same then where will oil prices go then!

    The one thing that is for sure, oil price will continue its fluid dynamics in every which way it can - catch it if you can!

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    Whilst in the meantime the US just keeps on pumping like crazy!

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    Last edited by Manxx; 05-17-2017 at 04:51 AM. Reason: typos

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