What I've learnt after 4 years of Forex Trading - Page 7
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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manxx View Post
    In all seriousness, this is about the best write-up I have yet seen anywhere concerning the "short life of a Newbie trader". A link to this post should be posted automatically after every new trader's introduction post - it would probably save them years of wasted time and a lot of wasted money.

    There are at least 3 simultaneous threads on this site that discuss why 90-95% of retail traders lose. Its all here, this post gives all the answers in one big nutshell.

    Brilliant! Brilliantly written, brilliantly constructed and obviously written with sincerity and a lot of personal experience.

    I would think that any trader will be able to identify with at least part of those stages if not all of them!

    So, one might think, why should anyone trade if it is not possible to gain?

    Well for one thing, although the post describes many stages along the trader development route and the pitfalls that may occur (and often, no usually, do), it stops there. It does not describe actually learning from those stages. It just describes a process of "oh, that didn't work, what shall I try next". It entirely omits at every stage the application of the main tool that every trader needs to use that is situated approximately between, and slightly above, the left and right ear lobes.

    It also only deals with extremes like jumping from scalping to 1:10 risk/reward position trading, for example:

    "You learn about risk reward, and how you only need to be right once every 10 trades to make profit"

    There is a whole world between 1:1 and 1:10

    But the OP does not explain why he thinks R/R always fails, he just concludes with, "You go back, and fail again, so you return to learning" - that is one huge generalisation and assumption!

    But this is a serious read for ANY new trader. Read and be warned - and if you take away anything from it, let it be this: Learn from your journey, learn your instrument , use your brain - it is what every successful professional does in every other field - why would you think that forex is any different.

    Edited to add:

    In a curious, double negative, kind of way, it is intriguing to ponder that if over 90% of traders lose, then if they all did a mirror image of their own trading then they would be over 90% successful. I have even seen at least one trader ask in exasperation how could he find a broker that would automatically always fill his orders in the opposite direction, but without him actually knowing it himself, otherwise he would automatically take that into account as well and still lose!

    But the intrigue here is that, in theory, it actually would work. In which case it significantly changes the target area where the problem lies.

    The OP builds his case on the argument that it is the market itself that prevents a trader making money because it is untradeable due to its pseudo-random characteristics. But the fact that if 90+% traders actually traded in the opposite direction to their actual trades then they would have profited suggests powerfully (IMHO) that the problem lies in the trader and not the market - that is a crucial issue - and why we still have bumble bees......
    Great reply, Manxx...

    I suppose we are a band of brothers and sisters here, but sometimes it does feel like 'the blind leading the blind', as RiskOn put it... So after all the wonderful thinking and communicating (and sharing) that we do on here, the question of 'can one be profitable as a self-taught retail trader (of any instrument)?' still remains one that, being so subjective in its answer to each of us differently, cannot be resolved by any other than ourselves individually. . . There is where it becomes difficult to have a 'one size fits all' methodology or system...

  2. #62
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    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by PipMeHappy View Post
    I suppose we are a band of brothers and sisters here, but sometimes it does feel like 'the blind leading the blind', as RiskOn put it... So after all the wonderful thinking and communicating (and sharing) that we do on here, the question of 'can one be profitable as a self-taught retail trader (of any instrument)?' still remains one that, being so subjective in its answer to each of us differently, cannot be resolved by any other than ourselves individually. . . There is where it becomes difficult to have a 'one size fits all' methodology or system...
    Yes, I agree, I doubt there can be any method or system that is right for everyone. Everyone is different, has different ambitions (e.g. trading for income or capital building), different psychological makeups, and different circumstances (e,g, capital, available time, existing financial commitments) and so.

    So every trader needs to develop an approach that fits their circumstances and goals.

    This particular thread is different in that it is questioning whether any trader can make a sustainable profit at all.

    An interesting thought here is that if retail traders cannot make profits because of the nature of the market rather than their own lack of expertise, then why is it that all the banks dealing in foreign exchange do not go bankrupt as well?

    But regarding the question of 'can one be profitable as a self-taught retail trader (of any instrument)?' I really am not in a position to comment on that, as you know, my own training was very different.

    Having said that, after my years in int'l banking, when I started my own account trading for real, I still found it an incredibly demanding and frustrating experience to adjust to the world of personal retail trading on shorter terms.

    But I am confident that an individual can learn and make it in this business. It just demands the normal extreme effort, commitment, and dedication - and more than a little business sense, too, that most complex fields require.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manxx View Post
    ... rather he is asking us to set ourselves up like skittles to have something to aim at..

    I await the response from the OP with great anticipation!

    My man..


  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by PipMeHappy View Post
    ..
    So after all the wonderful thinking and communicating (and sharing) that we do on here, the question of 'can one be profitable as a self-taught retail trader (of any instrument)?' still remains one that, being so subjective in its answer to each of us differently, cannot be resolved by any other than ourselves individually. . . ...

    I think you've summed it up there Pip Me.
    And that is why threads such as these , thoughtful, insightful and entertaining (have my popcorn at the ready at all times) as they are, ultimately and inevitably are a continuous loop of personal opinion and experience providing no conclusive answer to anything on an individual level. One persons "fact" remains another persons "fiction".
    Yes people can succeed and sustain that success (in trading or any other field) but not everyone does.
    We come up with all kinds of hare-brained ideas throughout our lives and many don't pan out or are just completely unsuited to our personalities or patience levels.
    I can do one or two things reasonably well but you could give me an eternity and I would still be lousy at the violin.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by FundamentallyFlawed View Post
    I think you've summed it up there Pip Me.
    And that is why threads such as these , thoughtful, insightful and entertaining (have my popcorn at the ready at all times) as they are, ultimately and inevitably are a continuous loop of personal opinion and experience providing no conclusive answer to anything on an individual level. One persons "fact" remains another persons "fiction".
    Yes people can succeed and sustain that success (in trading or any other field) but not everyone does.
    We come up with all kinds of hare-brained ideas throughout our lives and many don't pan out or are just completely unsuited to our personalities or patience levels.
    I can do one or two things reasonably well but you could give me an eternity and I would still be lousy at the violin.
    Well said, brava!!

    Mind you, if you had a good teacher (like me, huh huh)...you may win that violin battle

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by PipMeHappy View Post
    Well said, brava!!

    Mind you, if you had a good teacher (like me, huh huh)...you may win that violin battle
    I might just take you up on that...though it may take me a while to get to Scotland. I may be a little late.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by FundamentallyFlawed View Post
    I might just take you up on that...though it may take me a while to get to Scotland. I may be a little late.
    Well, there's a point: I have been wondering if Skype lessons would work, and have been looking into this but hardly anyone seems that keen, even in this so-called 'digital age' of ours.

    Anyway, the violin is immensely rewarding after all the awful squeaks and squawks

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