2-year backtest EURUSD, 300 pips/month

PipShip taking off :
(sailing out of the harbor…)

$ 40.000 3rd month (current) --> $ 4 miljoen by 5th month…?

30 indicators?!? This must be a joke… Sad part is, there are new people that get caught by these “be rich while sleeping EAs”. Just learn to trade the markets, step by step, day by day, just as everything else in life. Use your brain, folks.

None of those just one simple line to mark kimportantsupply or demand, no fib, no ema, just one line.

Im not going to get into a debate about EAs because I dont know enough about them, but if it was that easy then im sure more people/funds would use them. All of the top traders in the world are discretionary and that says it all for me.

Anyway bet of luck with the strategy, I genuinely hope the returns keep coming.

I think i ask before, but let me ask one more time…mate, are you considering sending your trading via zulutrade?
I am afollower there and am really much interested in actually following you…if you are that good as you are saying!

I am sending my trading for 8 weeks now via zulutrade…
(name = pipship. See previous messages.)

Created this thread 07-11-2013, 10:36 AM = 286 pips

At the moment = 536 pips. (about month later)

There are numerous ways to trade the market. By hand… (quoted)

There are also patterns in the market that are ‘standardised’. Standardised = patterns with higher than 50% chance a trade will win if buy or if sell at a certain time. This is all you need. (otherwise all trading tactics/this whole forums must be fake) Some of my strategy’s contain 8 A4 pages full of formules. You just need to made filters (more indicators adding) and layers. (different market? -> different part of strategy active) And you have to find a way how to deal with DD’s or negative trades.

Trading is not easy. Programming Succesfull Trading EA’s is one of the toughest things there is.

(have not seen a succesfull fully automated trading EA at this forum till now… otherwise please tell me)

I’m not going to debate whats the best way is to trade. (step by step, day by day or with standardised patterns and 'be rich while sleeping EA’s) I have bough a lot of automate programs (I was first programming in CTL, had to learn MT4 in about 2 years to design more complex strategies) also made indi’s by myself (half of them in EA)

I like standardised trading because you are able to make backtests of years. Then make risk analysis. Eventually you are able to use responsible money management when trading live. I also traded by hand, (I did many years on stocks, gas, oil, gold, forex etc.) but sometimes I ignored a rule of my step by step way of trading. And I had to do school, so I payed someone to trade for me. (he also stole my money, but that is another story…) But then I had to control his executions etc. Too damn difficult. Thats why I automated my trading. This EA is best way I found in 5 years of trading.

Then I didn’t had to pay this ‘trader’ instructed by myself anymore (And I had to search for a new trader if I wanted to continue step by step trading because he stole part of my money. Luckely, I got back most of the money anyway by starting a claims case. Nevermind…) By automating the trading, if I would trade by myself, then I wasn’t able to cheat anymore on my step by step trading rules and it would save a lot of time to automate the trading anyway. No mistakes. etc etc.

That is why…

I also do not trust ‘EA’s rich while i’m sleeping’ for sale. Otherwise it would be more wise to trade with the EA. I only trust my own EA and 5 years of experience. At this time 0,4 ton of dollars is with me. I’m gaining commissions of +/- 4$ a trade (30 trades month) about $120 dollar/month.

If not 4 million $ in account it’s not worth for me to send my trading signals to everyone. Then I will continue trading for myself with this EA.

In about 2 months ??


hmm, seems interesting

i want to say something for pipship as well as other members here.

first of all, im not a follower of pipship, might be interested to “test the water” with $1000-2000 but obviously nothing more than that.

But i must agree with what pipship mentioned about trading. It’s not true that trading with EA would not be working in long run and trading manually will always be better. that’s not always the case. because first of all almost all strategies can be turned out to be an EA, things like price action etc. can be turned in an EA too, so EA is not as “static” as it seems. While commercial EAs might look static but I think a lot of senior traders also trading with EAs just that they dont sell the system. Just that maybe not all EA are 100% automatic sometimes you need manual intervention like when it’s near major S/R, near very big news like NFP, etc. etc.

but eventually i agree that with EA things can work. even it might work better than trading manually. because every strategy, even the best ones eventually will have DD. so when a EA doesnt work for 1-2 months, it might not mean because it’s robot but simply because the strategy itself doesnt work. Who created the strategy? Still humans. If you trade based on very flexible rules manually then obviously EA is not for you but most traders that “survived” this business for years eventually always have rules set in stone. That’s how they conquered their emotion. and I think the logic is, if they set their rules very strictly and not let emotion “interfere” with their trading rules, why cant they make an EA based on that?

personally i believe in diversification. I would probably test pipship zulutrade account with just $1000 or max. $2000 but obviously won’t be too far from there, max. no more than 10% of my total money in forex.

wondering about something though. Why you dont have any contact information on your site? It’s always good to communicate with everyone even those who are bashing you.

Also, why history only 2010-2011? Why not 2012 and early 2013? :smiley:

Contact information can be found on the website as well.
Yesterday I made an url to this thread/forum. Now clients or followers can intervine in the discussion about the quality of my service. (see page strategic design)

We haven’t put our private post addresses on the website. Seems obviously why not. :stuck_out_tongue: (number of friendship requests I am receiving right now of members of this forum :stuck_out_tongue: thank you, thank you…) If the service will grow in the future we maybe want to expand our service with a mailadress for questions about how to use pipship’s services. Then we also have to hire assistance for answering the questions.

I like people criticising the strategy, EA, etc. Maybe I can still learn or use ideas. At the other hand, the strategy will not be changed. Codes are fixed (on start). I do not want to make any changes to the strategy. Admiror or criticiser? I try to answer questions and replies of both.

In the meanwhile I wrote the strategy in 2012, I downloaded the data for backtests.
I had data from 1970 till 2011. Early 2012. I wanted to do a history test 2010 till now, but the data I downloaded only contained the whole year of 2010 en 2011. That’s why the history test contains 2010-2011. The history test also contains only the EURUSD pair. With trading on three pairs, the result can be somewhat different. I mentioned some other possible characteristics that could cause a difference between test en live trading result on the page: risk & return/backtest EURUSD.

Hey pipship,

Good job on creating a consistently profitable EA, not easy as you said…

Cheers!

several questions after looking at your website:

Max DD = 1000 pips.
Our return is +/- 300 pips a month.

Max DD based on your backtests trading 3 pairs at once is 1000 pips? I have zulutrade demo account following you for now but i wonder if automatic settings risk meter bar 7% means that max DD is something like 30%? (considering that your average monthly profit claimed is 10-12% and in terms of pips it’s just 300 pips)… just for clarification

The absolute stop has to be filled in in euro’s/dollars. By using the normal risk appraoch, you will start to use a stop of 10%. You have to calculate the stop yourself in the preciese number of euro’s/dollars. (equity -0.1 * equity) (E 900,–) Then start to fill in the lotsratio.

I dont get the capital protection calculation. If my equity is $10,000, as stated in the demo account, what should I fill in there? $900? $9000?

[B]To understand the underneath answer (other readers at the forum) I think you first have to read the information at the risk and return page of my website, otherwise this information can create somewhat dizzyness. :stuck_out_tongue:

If you don’t understand **** about the information underneath… (I know it’s not easy!) then just trade some weeks with a demo account. Instead of using stops, adjusted percentages etc. you can also trade with the preciese actual numbers (risk meter settings) from the website. (maybe not even using an absolute stop, well…) See what percentage is good for you (try to see how a sudden DD will effect your account) Don’t take too much. Scale up the percentage month by month or by each three months for example. Especially if you are trading with a couple of $100-1000. Try to see the risk meter settings at the website as a reference point. Then by using your own risk-meter-setting, you will not be far away from the optimal settings.[/B]

Oke, there we go…

[I] - Max DD based on backtests trading EURUSD (1 pair) (2 years) is 600 pips. [/I]

I wanted to use a Max DD of at least 3 years (average of 3 years hit max DD) and (yes…) trading 3 pairs. (about twice or three times as much trades) Maybe 1000 pips is to high. I also wanted to have some buffer. (otherwise all followers will be thrown out of the strategy once maybe every year) Anyway, I chosed Max DD = 1000 pips. Of course you are free to use a different period of trading with pipship and therefore using a higher or lower MaxDD number.

[I] - 7% risk meter has to be equal with trading 0.1 mini lot / $1000.[/I]

At the moment: if you set your risk meter in account at 7% you will trade with more than 0.1 mini lots / $1000. (think it’s about 0.4 mini lot / $1000) (yes like trading with a +/- 30% risk meter)

[B]Risk meter is not DD account in euro’s/dollars !!! [/B]

Risk meter is just a tool of zulutrade to easy control the amount of lots to trade.
DD account is amount of risk account. (This will never exceeds -10% of original deposit when trading with a normal risk approach) By trading with 0.2 lots / $1000 the risk will be 20% (0.4 -> 40%)
But in the previous months you already gained money. So the 10% risk level of the original deposit won’t be crossed.

[B]Why 7% risk meter = maxDD 10% account? [/B]

Max DD account has to be max 10%. Using 0.1 minilots / $1000 I think the risk meter is about 7%. (max DD -1000 pips = 10% = normal risk approach)

The next year we will go beyond the current number of 166 pips maxDD at the moment. Therefore the percentage displayed by the risk meter will also change. (using 0.1 minilots / $ 1000) Make sure you are using 0.1 minilots / $1000. That’s why I mentioned at the risk and return page: [I]‘make sure that the risk meter percentage is equal (in case of start setting 7%) to 0.1 minilots / $1000 !!!’.[/I]

Maybe 5% risk meter eventually equals max DD 10% account = normal risk approach.

When trading 0.4 minilots / $ 1000 after first trading for 6 months (and scaling up the lots amount) you will finally earn about 12% each month with a normal risk approach.

Your second question:
If you do have $10.000 in your account. (trading with pipship as the only Signal Provider you are following, of course :P)
Then a 90% capital protection (loss is max 10%) is absolute stop is $9.000.
(E 1000,-- -> stop = E 900,–) ($ 10.000,-- -> stop = $ 9.000,–)

Hope the information above will give you a better understanding…
I know this is difficult, trading with good money management, then some calculations have to be made…

[B]If you don’t understand **** about the information above… (I know it’s not easy!) then just trade some weeks with a demo account. Instead of using stops, adjusted percentages etc. you can also trade with the preciese actual numbers (risk meter settings) from the website. (maybe not even using an absolute stop, well…) See what percentage is good for you (try to see how a sudden DD will effect your account) Don’t take too much. Scale up the percentage month by month or by each three months for example. Especially if you are trading with a couple of $100-1000. Try to see the risk meter settings at the website as a reference point. Then by using your own risk-meter-setting, you will not be far away from the optimal settings.[/B]

Thank you! :60:

settings has to be auto then? Because risk meter at 7% equals to 1.4 mini lot per $10,000 (and you recommend 1 mini lot per $10,000)

[B]To understand the underneath answer (other readers at the forum) I think you first have to read the information at the risk and return page of my website, otherwise this information can create somewhat dizzyness. :stuck_out_tongue:
[/B]

There are 2 possible ways to set the lots amount:

  • auto &
  • custum

If auto: then make sure your percentage equals (in case of $10.000) 1.0 minilots. (you have to use 5% for example to get 1 minilots instead of 1.4 mini lot, 7% is too much because you are then trading with 1.4 mini lots) Make sure every month the actual lots amount is correct !!!

If custom: then you are able to set the lots amount by yourself instead of using a percentage.
Use 1.0 minilots.

In the previous reply I wrote that 7% would equal about 1 mini lots / $10.000. (because you are saying 7% equals 1.4 minilots / $10.000) You have to use 5%. This percentage will differ somewhat caused by the actual DD’s noticed by zulutrade.

Instead of using the percentage, you have to use the lotsamount when filling in the percentage.
(other way around) [B]Use 0.1 mini lots / $ 1000. -> risk percentage will be 5%. Thats oke.[/B]

Custom mode works the other way around. Maybe it is better to use custom mode. Maybe I have to advice to use custom mode. I have to considder this for a moment. Maybe I will change this information at the website.

so basically the money management strategy is doubling lot size when we are winning every trimester and when it hits absolute stop (with that zuluguard settings) we need to start over again with 0.1 minilot/$1000, right?

Btw Contact information as adress information and registration of the business…
We are now setting up the business in a business model. Adress of pipship, mail etc. We are working on this.

We already registrated our tradename and tradelogo. :wink: In the following months the business will further be registrated.

good one, btw can you answer my previuos question?

i have plan to test your method with about $2000 deposit and will just let it run until at least 3 months. I know DD happens in every method so unlike most followers i wont jump “ship” if series of bad trade happen. Most likely i will report how it goes to other traders here (if the thread is still alive by then)

Yes, money management is basically doubling the lot size if +1000 pips. (till 0.4 minilots / $1000!!! = normal risk approach) …

if… +1000 pips (is MaxDD) (it takes about a trimester (3 months) to make 1000 pips)
so if it takes 4 months to make 1000 pips, you have to wait 4 months. (then 0.2 minilots / $1000 if trading with 0.1 minilots / $1000)

If hit absolute stop, you have to start over with trading with 0.1 minilots / $1000 indeed.
[B]
Stop doubling the lotssize after reaching 0.4 minilots / $1000. Because…[/B]

Till reaching the absolute stop, your account can drop with max 40%. (trading with the final lotsamount after 6 months of gaining) This is a huge drop! But we already gained this percentage, so [I]max total risk of original deposit is still max 10% risk.[/I] Because of the way we handle DD’s (see video prospect pipship), normally if not reaching the absolute stop the account will not drop beyond -20%.

[I]When using percentages the following fact needs some attention:[/I]
If loss is:
-10% -> you need 11% to make up the loss.
-20% -> you need 25% to make up the loss.
-30% -> you need 43% to make up the loss.
-40% -> you need 67% to make up the loss.
-50% -> you need to double your account to get back to your original deposit!

This is why losing big really hurts. (make sure this does not happen!!! use good moneymanagement, no dollar signs in your eyes and taking too much risk!)

You see the increase in percentage you need to make up a loss. This is why we do not recommand you to use a Max risk approach. Above (or under) -20% the fact illustrated has a serieus negative influence on your trading. (it limits the possiblity to increase the lotssize over and over again by gaining in the previous months)

This is why you have to stop doubling the lotsamount after reaching 0.4 minilots / $1000. (after trading +/- 6 months/normal risk approach)