Balance: £363.96
Gain to Date: 80.28%
Amount left to goal: £4999999636.04
Well today was a good day and also a frustrating day. Firstly we’ll deal with the good.
I have been holding onto an EU short for the last few days which has been great in the fact that yesterday EU tanked. I sat through the retrace and finally decided to realise my profits at 1.30999 making this a 290pipper… looking back I could have held it longer and snatched a considerable number of additional pips but in honesty I got ludicrously drunk on red wine and I got all excited and took my profits.
I’m going to keep my eye on EU going forward and look for more short oportunities over the next week or so.
So now the frustrating part…
You know what really bugs me? Missing an oportunity!. now I know that the market is full of oportunities and I know that more will present themselves in the future but still for some reason it really bugs me. Even more so than losing a trade. It’s the good old case of what could have been. Anyway Yesterday I missed out on three identified opportunities.
Add to EU short - so I had a pending order to short EU (on top of my current position and I had mixed feeling as I watched EU ramp up in the morning. Price came to within 20pips of my order and then took a dive.
USD/CHF Long - The same thing happend with a pending order I have had placed on USD/CHF for a few days. this time I missed out on my order by about 12 pips.
Short E/J - This one was really more of a pipe dream really. I was looking at the charts thinking that it was starting to show a lot more bearishness and I even made a few calculations for stops etc. anyway I left it but when I came back a bit later in the day… well price had dropped something like 400pips form where I would have entered…
All three of these turned me to the bottle and so I hit the red wine… by the way red wine and daft traders don’t mix.
A couple of pending orders have been hit overnight though… We’ve got A buy on EG. which is currently 35pips up and a sell on UJ currently 39pips down (but in the good way) so we’ll see how these pan out over the course of the day.
So I’m just getting settled into my second glass of Sauvignon Blanc… Thought I’d better get this done quick otherwise 1. It’s unlikely that I’ll be able to see the keyboard. And 2. I’ll start swearing all over the place… get banned from the website… drink more… and then take all of my trading money out to pay for a night with a ladyboy and end up spewing in the gutter (if last Friday was anything to go by)
So I mentioned above that I had two trades trigger over night last night during the Asian session a long EUR/GBP and a Short USD/JPY now I closed down the EUR/GBP trade prety early today. Looking at the charts and trying to get into the more macro side of things Im kind of holding the view that the Euro is heading down and while the GBP has had a pretty rough time of late I’m not overly convinced that it will continue… Therfore holding a long EUR/GBP (despite the technicals) is kind of counter to my point of view. Thereby I closed it for a small gain of… wait for it… £3.25!! (well it is enough for a beer at least)
This just leaves me with a USD/JPY short open at the moment which is sitting at 89pips to the good as we type this I’ve really tightened my stop on the to the high of todays candle but as long as that doesn’t get hit I’m planning on holding this for a while to see if we are going to hit a bit of a downturn in this pair hopefuly for a fairly decent move… we’ll just see what happens.
Châteauneuf-du-Pape is a region that has thirteen different kinds of grapes. Nice try. At least tell us if you’re into the Grenache, Mourvèdre, or Syrah?
Sorry to disappoint you but I believe that you will find that a Chateauneuf-Du-Pape is a type of wine that is blended from Grenache, Mourvedre AND Syrah it is also a small village. I have included below photographic of a variety of three Chateauneufs to illustrate my point.
I lost a trade, well this is it. the turning point, the point of no return. somehow I managed to string a few winners together and then hubris kicked in and now, here I am. A big fat loser :-/
USD/JPY had been fudging around for the last few days and after getting into a short hoping for a possible reversal I finally got stopped out for -28.3pips which equates to about 1%. off my account but meh… never mind.
Wanting to carry on the momentum however from my previous success (please remember that I am a firm believer that this account will blow up at some point) I’ve been hunting for a trade. but really although there seem to be some nice trends around the all seem a little too expensive to be getting into (i.e. price is too far away from where I would like it to be) with that in mind I have set a couple of pending orders one for a short on EUR/USD and one for a Long on USD/CHF. I cranked up the risk on these quite considerably so I’ll probably be a nervous wreck if they get hit over the next few trading days.
that is it for now… definatley time for some beauty sleep.
So it looks like this week I’m going to have a tough time finding an entry. So rather than letting this thread sink down into non existence I thought I’d share with you the concept of what I look for to enter a trade…
In essence I am a trend trader. What this means I want to be trading in the direction of the trend. In general I always assume that a trend is more likely to continue than it is to reverse. However the question really is If a trend is going up where do I decide to get long?
Well the concept I use is nothing new really and I employ a moving avereage (normally the 20ema) to decide on where I want to enter a trade. Now before all you naked chart price action guys start screaming heathen it might pay to actually think what this EMA is telling us. I always find it best to detail the simplest example I can think of and here it is…
Pretend you are an American and you want to come pay lil’l ol’ me a visit over here in the UK you will need to cash in your dollars and buy some pounds. Now when you change your money you might think that you got a good deal or a bad deal. This may be expressed graphically as (and please excuse the drawing lol.`0
ok now if you bought your pounds at point A where the pound is strong against the dollar you might think to yourself that you got a poor deal. If you bought your pounds at point B you might think that you got a fair price or fair value for your dollars and if you bought at point C then you might think that you got excellent value for your money. Now the red line that cuts across the graph is simply the average of the past prices and it is this ‘indicator’ that we can use to determine the fair value of the currency pair.
When markets are trending then we can apply the same theory. except the general price and the average will be traveling is a specific direction.
When I think a market is trending and I want to get into the movement the only thing I care about is that I don’t want to feel like I just got ripped off so what I am doing is I am looking to get into a price that I feel is fair, I’m looking for fair value i.e. the position of the moving avereage.
I will wait to verify a trend once this is done I’ll wait for price to come back to the avereage and then I’ll look to enter the trade. This I feel give me the best chance for a trade to go in my direction assuming that the trend will continue.
And that quite simply is how I look to enter a number of my trades… Simple or what?
This is just something to think about it is not a hard and fast rule but hopefully it illustrates the point that an average is a useful indicator for assessing the value of a currency (at least in the short run). Hopefully this also explains why I am not feeling to hopeful about entering any trades over the next few days as it seems that every bleedin’ pair that I am interested in is trading quite a way away from the fair values.
I find in these cases it is best to just sit back and wait for the opportunity to present itself.
I hope you continue as I really enjoyed reading this thread! Apart from the humour I think your results are quite good!
I tried your wine trading idea out last night with a cabernet sauvignon. Didnt do any trading, but had fun watching bars form and listening to some music
Besides you still have about 4.9 bill pounds to go right?
Well first of apologies to all my faithful acolytes (all one of you) I’ve been away on my hols for a few weeks sunning myself in the Middle East. Anyway I’m back now and ready for some more trading…
I’ve got a lot of stuff going on at the moment and (without going into tons of details) I’m re-allocating all of my investments. So I’ve decided to stop this silly 200 to 5000000000 business and have just almagamated my forex accounts together.
Now I’m still going to continue with this thread however I might actually retract my quotes on there being no adequate risk management in place as there is a little more money at stake anyways, jump on board the daft train and let’s see if we can turn £201.04 (plus a little more) into £5’000’000’000.
Ok so here is what I am looking at and am quite keen on. Basically I’m itching to get into a long position on GBP/USD.
Looking at the chart there seems to have been a bit of a reversal and normally I would be quite wary of reversals after such a big decline like GU has seen in recent weeks.
however looking at the commitment of traders reports commercials are basically at their highest net long position for 3 years. Without boring anyone stupid basically when that happens we want to start looking for signs of reversal which (hopefully) we have seen in the chart above.
So now I have a trade idea and hopefully some half decent reasons behind why I should be trading it the question is now where and when do I trade it? going back to my fancy pictures from earlier in the thread I want to be getting some kind of fair value on the pair and for me that is a price that lies between the 10 and 20 EMA (highlighted the hotspot on the chart above. And what I intend to do is basically keep a pending order to go long in between those two EMA’s I’ll keep on adjusting the entry until it is either hit or untill I believe that this trade idea is no longer valid.
My stop is going to be placed a few pips underneath the last fractal low that has been formed as if I get into a trade and price moves down below this then that is the point where my trade is no longer valid.
Anyway that is what I am most interested in at the moment. Lets see what happens over the next week when hopefully I’ll get into a trade.
So here we go. My entry on GU got hit so we are now officially long on that pair. Lets see how it works out.
One thing you will notice is that I have one hell of a Stop Loss on this trade. something like 250pips which isn’t ideal however if the trend takes hold and continues then hopefully there will be further opportunities to scale in some additional funds into this little jaunt down (or hopefully up) this pair.
