Price broke through the 50 ema and reversed at the identical point to the stopping volume candle 5 at 1.80448, which as I stated previously, was likely to be a point of resistence. Not sure why my profit target which is set at 1.80450 was not triggered.
I suspect, price will re-test this area again, but this time if it does not close my trade I will manually close it.
Once you see SV in action Daxter, youâll become a believer! Iâd have moved that TP above the stopping volume for the second hit. My take on SV is that it presents a ânewâ price of support & resistance that we have to mark for ourselves manually during the session.
Hereâs a good example of âClear Path to ProfitââŚ
This is on GBPUSD this afternoon (or morning for Euro). None of this is indicator driven, theyâre all realities of price and structure, previous sessions etcâŚ
As you can see (by the pink lines) itâs a mess! And not a tradable environment. Best advice, is to stay out until price figures out where it wants to go, and the path from your Entry to your Profit Target is clear of obstructions.
Iâll answer your question if you answer mine Is there a âClear Path to Profitâ below your entry?
The previous dayâs low is there (strong buying area) AND a support/resistance line. In two places before your entry (one at 10:50) and one at 11:55 and another at 12:20 buyers have all come in at that support & resistance line.
But, I will say well done on trading with the trend, waiting for a pullback to the 14ema, and getting a sign of No Supply volume! (So youâve just got one more box to tick, clear path to profit)
Can you post charts that are a little bit zoomed in please?
Thks mate and will modify my image⌠I saw previous low was break ,there is not support below , 14 eam below 50 ema ⌠So i took the trade for sellâŚ
The blue line is support, your sell entry has to be strong enough to get through that for profit. There is strong buying support there. Previous Low was broken and quickly rejected.
Hi JN,
I think everybody starting or seasoned on Volume Spread Analysis, has seen it sort of evolves around Wyckoff market cycle. I think even petefader mentions it in one of his videos. However, Iâve never seen it on a live chart. I wonder if you ever seen itâŚon what time frame you think they can be observed (I think petefader said on 1H)? I donât know, but I think Wyckoff cycle is not quite applicable to Forex. It seems like Wyckoff evolved his trading career working on a different market.
While trying to load the template on one of my demo accounts to make it look like the charts being used by JN, I noticed something which I think is well worth to share so everybody is aware of it. The volume reported by any given broker can vary significantly when it comes to produce NSNS signals with the great indicator provided by JN. I compared 3 brokers and it seems like there can be around 5-8 missing signals, being XM the one which gives the least. Look at the screen-shots and see for yourself:
Broker XM:
Broker PepperStone:
Broker IBFX:
As you can see, the discrepancies can make the difference between missing a few good trades and not getting any on a session. Interestingly, even though XM misses many signals, it also gives a few other good signals which the other two brokers missed. So, I leave it up to debate what is more convenient for this nice strategy: Use a broker which processes tons of orders (like FXCM)? Use simultaneously 2 brokers to have more signals at the expense of an additional window to watch?
Iâve spent quite a bit of time on the 4HR and 1HR charts looking at the accumulation/distribution and mark-up/mark-down phases of price, stopping volume, higher TF trends etc. But to be honest, no timeframe seems to hold up better than the other.
In all honesty, a 15m TF or 5m TF is where Iâm most comfortable, the only take-aways I use from VSA is looking at NDNS and Stopping Volume, the rest are a bit academic.
I hate to say it, but Iâve been using XM this whole time! (After testing Alapri, Oanda, Pepper ad IBfx).
Change your thoughts from instead of looking for an âexactâ NDNS candle, so say you have volume of 78, the next is 74, now the third, youâre looking for 74 or less to be âtechnicallyâ a NDNS, if I get a volume of 75 or 76, Iâm not going to ignore it, look at the candle itself, the wicks, the close, where it is in relation to S&R etcâŚ
So instead of looking for a technically âexactâ NDNS third candle, look for âsignsâ of NDNS volume leading up to. In order of looking for an entry, the volume is one of the last boxes to tick prior to an entry.
On this also Keen, load up a chart thatâs quite range bound, and put it on 5m or 15 m TF, zoom out a bit, and see if you can notice thereâs higher volume when price is at the top of the range or the bottom of the range, this can often indicate (while in accumulation or distribution) which was price is likely to break out. Or more precisely, whether the buyers or the sellers are filling their order books under the radar.
But for us on the 5m TF, itâs irrelevant, wait for the breakout, ensure thereâs no SV or S&R in your way, and wait for an opportunity to jump on the wagon.
The beauty of the 5 minute time frame is you can watch volume unfold as a candle forms. For instance a bullish candle may form with relatively low volume, then suddenly sellers enter the market and the price shoots down and the volume dramatically increases, only for the buyers to slowly take control once again but with slowly rising volume. I would then take a quick look at the 1 minute chart to see the full picture and where price is likely to go next. I cannot imagine staring at a 1 hour candle in the hope of seeing some rapid movement in price and volume.
I have attached M15 chart on 23July2014 London Open, As per my analysis i should had take long on the pull back candle after confirmation. Plz let me know if my analysis is wrong.
A couple of comments from my end, (firstly, thanks for zooming in, could you zoom in one more click next time)
Are the coloured lines the murray math S&R? If so, you have the blue S&R line right there. The volume increase at London + wick on the top suggests stopping volume. Price hasnât pulled back to the 14ema. So there are a couple of things on this trade. Also, this strategy is on the 5m TF. Was there a fundamental news release just after your entry?
Almost there mate, weâll have a great entry soon!
Yes i am using MM SR as per your initial post. It was beginning of the London session and there was no news.
Should the price clear the SR and hit the 14 EMA after the on the first bounce.
Yep, youâre looking for a breakout of S&R, then a pullback. So that price has broken through the price barrier, then the previous point of resistance can become support.
Keep in mind though, that the Murray Math S&R changes each day (as does price) so if you take a screenshot a day or two later, the S&R will be different than when you took the trade. Research âBreakout Pullbacksâ online and at Lance Beggâs website.
Reviewing the news releases for Friday, there was german ifo business release right on your entry. You need to be aware of all news times on both forexfactory and fxstreet prior to entry.
Iâd have moved that TP above the stopping volume for the second hit. My take on SV is that it presents a ânewâ price of support & resistance that we have to mark for ourselves manually during the session.
