AceTraderForex Apr 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

Trading Discussion Currencies
61

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

10 Oct 2014[/B] [I]02:27GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - .... Despite staging a rebound from Thursday's 3-week low of 107.53 to 108.18 initially in NY morning session after release of upbeat U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly claims dropped 1,000 to nearly its lowest level b4 the 07'-09' recession), however, sell off in U.S. stocks (S&P & the Dow fell 2.1% & 1.9% respectively) led to renewed risk-aversion buying of yen n knocked dlr back down to 107.72.

The pair traded narrowly in Aust. before falling to 107.65 at Asian open as the Nikkei open lower following o/n sell off in the N225 futures.

Although Nikkie is currently down 152 points, it is trading above intra-day 15259 low, therefore, as dlr/yen has been tracking the Nikkei index closely these days, further consolidation above 107.53 is therefore envisaged.
Offers are tipped at 108.00 and more at 108.15/20 with stops above there. Initial bids are noted at 107.65-60 with stops reported below 107.50, then 107.40, suggesting selling dlr on intra-day recovery is still favoured.

[B]Friday[/B] will see the release of Japan BoJ minutes, consumer confidence, France industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK trade balance, Canada employment, unemployment, U.S. export price index and import price index.

62

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

13 Oct 2014[/B] [I]00:53GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ..... Dlr opened lower in NZ on Monday as decline in global stocks triggered continued broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion.

Price easily penetrated last week’s 107.53 low in NZ n hit an intra-day low of 107.26 in Australia, despite a minor recovery ahead of Asian open, the 400 plus points sell off in the Nikkei futures (financial markets in Japan are closed for Health-Sports Day holiday) prompted another round of yen buying, the pair weakened to a near 1-month bottom of 107.18 shortly after the open.

Today’s decline was partly attributable to usd’s weakness vs other major European currencies as dovish comments by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Sat who said weaker-than-expected global growth could prompt the Fed to slow the pace of eventual interest-rate increases.

Offers are tipped at 107.50/60 n more above with some stops reported at 108.00.
On the downside, some bids are noted at 107.10-00 and more below with some fairly large stops rumoured below 106.80, suggesting selling the pair on recovery is the way to go as initial weakness in Asian equities suggests intra-day risk-aversion buying of yen should continue.

This week’s economic events will see the release of China’s export, import and trade balance[B] on Monday[/B] while Japan, Canada and U.S. will be closed for holiday.

U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan’s domestic CGPI, Australia’s NAB business conditions, BOJ outlook report, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment, eurozone industrial production, U.S. Redbook [B]on Tuesday. [/B]

China’s CPI and PPI, Japan’s industrial production, Germany’s final CPI and HICP, U.K. ILO unemployment rate and claimant count unemployment change, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. retail sales, NY Fed manufacturing, core PPI final demand, business inventories and Fed’s Beige book [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI, consumer inflation expectation, eurozone trade balance and CPI, U.S. initial jobless claims, industrial and manufacturing output, NAHB housing market index, Philly Fed business index, Net L-T flows and overall capital flows[B] on Thursday. [/B]

Japan’s Tankan, Germany’s whole price index, eurozone GDP, U.S. building permits and housing starts, Canada’s CPI and preliminary U.S. University of Michigan sentiment[B] on Friday.[/B]

63

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

13 Oct 2014

USD/JPY[/B] - … Dlr pares initial broad-based losses in Asian morning and has rebounded from intra-day Asian near 1-week low of 107.06 to 107.48 in early European trading as recovery in the Nikkei futures (currently up by 65 points after early 400+ points sell off in Asia) has triggered yen-selling.

As mentioned earlier, offers are tipped at 107.50/60 may check present rebound, more selling interest is noted at 107.70/80 and some bids (profit-taking) is reported at 107.20-00 region, suggesting range trading is in store in European morning.
Current active trading may quieten down in post-European lunch session as markets in U.S. & Canada are closed for holiday today.

64

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

14 Oct 2014[/B] [I]01:23GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - .... It was deja vu in Australia early this morning, just like Monday's morning price action in NZ when short-term specs sold the greenback broadly ahead of Asian open, knocking the pair briefly but sharply below Monday's 137.06 low to a fresh 1-month trough of 106.76 as a late sell off in the Dow & S&P (only U.S. bond market was closed for Columbus Day holiday on Mon) prompted renewed buying of yen on risk aversion.

Bids are noted at 107.10-00 and more below whilst offers are tipped at 107.45/55 with stops above there, however, more selling interest is reported at 108.00/10, suggesting consolidation with upside bias is in store.

Despite intra-day sell off in the Nikkei (currently down 367 points), Japanese bargain hunters (importers) bot dlr ahead of Tokyo open, price bounced back to 107.24, suggesting the intra-day low print would remain, at least during Asian session.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]

U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan’s domestic CGPI, Australia’s NAB business conditions, BOJ outlook report, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment, eurozone industrial production, U.S. Redbook.

65

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

15 Oct 2014[/B] [I]02:09GMT[/I]
[B]USD/JPY[/B] - … Earlier Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari said today the gov’t is not pursuing a policy to intentionally weaken the yen.
Amari, speaking in parliament, said it is necessary to monitor any negative impact from rising import prices.
Some cited his comments may have contributed to dlr’s intra-day retreat from 107.41.

The greenback swung from gain to loss in volatile Tokyo trading on Wed as various comments from Japan officials have confused traders.

Despite climbing in Australia after touching a fresh 1-month low of 106.67 in Europe yesterday due to cross-buying of yen, anticipated rebound in the Nikkei prompted short covering, dlr easily penetrated NY high of 107.12 n rallied to intra-day high of 107.41 ahead of Tokyo open after tripping stops above 107.30. Present retreat on renewed cross-buying of yen possibly after Japan’s Economy minister Amari’s comment suggests choppy sideways trading is in store.

Offers are noted at 107.30/40 n more at 107.55/60 would stops touted above there. Initial bids have been raised to 107.05-00 n more below should keep dlr trading above said yesterday’s low. Therefore, with the Nikkei now in positive territory after recent losing streak, buying dlr on dips is favoured.

Earlier, BoJ senior official said ‘BoJ’s QE has caused rates to fall, making it easier for banks to increase lending; increase in money stock helps support demand for funding, supports overall economy.’
‘no comment on specific FX levels;
in general, weak yen is positive for exports and companies operating globally; weak yen can be negative for some small firms and importers;
weak yen can put pressure on real household incomes;
BoJ gov Kuroda thinks that as long as FX moves in line with fundamentals, weak yen is positive.’

[B]Wednesday [/B]will see the release of China’s CPI and PPI, Japan’s industrial production, Germany’s final CPI and HICP, U.K. ILO unemployment rate and claimant count unemployment change, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. retail sales, NY Fed manufacturing, core PPI final demand, business inventories and Fed’s Beige book.

66

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

16 Oct 2014[/B] [I] 02:08GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Dlr is nursing loss after yesterday's brief but sharp fall to a 5-week trough of 105.20 as release of a surprise sharp drop in U.S. retail sales (September monthly sales fell 0.3% vs forecast of -0.1%, previous reading was +0.6%) proved to be the 'catalyst' for a broad-based sell off in global stocks with the Dow having fallen 458 points after the data.

The broad-based weakness in global equities also triggered sharp fall in the Nikkei futures (N225 futures closed down 535 points) led to active buying of yen on risk aversion.
Although recovery in U.S. stocks plus rebound in the benchmark 10-year U.S. treasury yields (10Y had one of the biggest intra-day moves in over a decade fell from 2.20% to 1.85%, lowest since mid-2013) lifted dlr to 106.40 on short-covering, price moved narrowly for rest of NY afternoon session.

The lack of a movement in Tokyo trading is a surprise, no bargain hunters, no short-term specs selling dlr on stop-hunting etc suggests buyers & sellers are evenly balanced.
Although Nikkei is currently trading at a 4-1/2 month low of 14763 (down 310 points), yen is weak on the crosses, suggesting range trading would continue in Asia as traders are on the sideline.
Offers are noted at 106.30/40 and more above with stops above 106.70. Initial bids are reported at 105.80-60 area with stops touted below 105.20.

[B]Thursday[/B] will see the release of New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI, consumer inflation expectation, eurozone trade balance and CPI, U.S. initial jobless claims, industrial and manufacturing output, NAHB housing market index, Philly Fed business index, Net L-T flows and overall capital flows.

67

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

17 Oct 2014[/B] [I]01:33GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ....... Statement from BoJ Kuroda, quote:

‘there is no doubt BoJ will end QQE if Japan hits 2% inflation and this price level is maintained stably;
too early to debate exit strategy for QQE now, how to exit will depend on market, economic developments at the time;
talking about specific exit strategies now could cause confusion when communicating with market.’

While statement from BoJ Deputy Gov Iwata quote:
‘BoJ is internally making ssimulations on exit strategy, but too early to consider one now;
Japan still half way in meeting boJ’s 2% inflation target.’

Japan’s FinMin Taro Aso said no plan now to review Japan’s foreign reserves.

[B]Friday[/B] will see the release of Japan’s Tankan, Germany’s whole price index, eurozone GDP, U.S. building permits and housing starts, Canada’s CPI and preliminary U.S. University of Michigan sentiment.

68

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

20 Oct 2014

USD/JPY [/B] …Statement at a quarterly meeting of the central bank’s regional branch managers BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, quote:
-Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately as a trend

  • effect of sales tax hike on economy likely to gradually ease
    -Japan banking system maintaining stability
    -QQE exerting intended effects
    -BOJ will maintain qqe for as long as needed to achieve 2 pct inflation in stable manner
    -BOJ will adjust policy as needed, looking at upside, downside risks to economy, prices
    -some weakness seen in output

The main driver of today’s gap-up open on the dlr in NZ was a w/end report by Bloomberg citing source from the Nikkei.

Bloomberg reported Japan’s $ 1.2 tln retirement fund will increase its allocation target for shares to about 25% from 12%, the Nikkei newspaper reported today without attribution.

Nikkei also said GPIF will also boost its holdings of foreign bonds n stocks to about a combined 30% from 23%, while reducing domestic notes to the 40% level from 60%.

Takatoshi Ito, a member of the panel said that the GPIF would be "stupid? to announce its new investment strategy before adjusting asset allocations. Publishing targeted weightings in advance would move markets, forcing the fund to buy at highs and sell at lows, he said in an interview on Oct. 14.

The fund’s asset review could come as late as December, as GPIF officials, members of its investment committee n the health ministry have different views on the best timing and approach, Ito said.

[B]Data to be released this week: [/B]

UK Rightmove house prices, Germany producer prices, EU current account, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales and Canada wholesale trade[B] on Monday. [/B]

Australia CB leading indicator, Westpac leading index, RBA minutes, China GDP, retail sales, industrial output, Japan industry index, Swiss trade balance, UK PSNB, PSNCR, U.S. Redbook retail sales and existing home sales [B]on Tuesday. [/B]

Japan imports, exports, trade balance, Australia inflation, BoE minutes, UK BoE MPC vote, Canada retail sales, BoC rate decision, U.S. weekly earnings and CPI [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

New Zealand CPI, Japan manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, France business climate, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Italy trade balance, UK retail sales, CBI trends, U.S. home price index, jobless claims, manufacturing PMI, leading index and consumer confidence [B]on Thursday. [/B]

New Zealand trade balance, imports, exports, China house prices, Germany consumer sentiment, Italy retail sales, UK GDP and U.S. new home sales [B]on Friday.[/B]