AceTraderForex Apr 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GPB/USD

Trading Discussion Currencies
21

[B] Intra-Day News & Views

18 Sep 2014[/B]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - … Cable jumps ahead of European open.
Despite trading sideways in Asia following Wed’s sharp retreat from a fresh 1-week high of 1.6358 to 1.6247 (AUS), traders noted a wave of broad-based buying by European early birds near 1.6260/65, price rallied to intra-day high of 1.6325.

As cable’s intra-day up move was not news-driven and Scottish polling station are to open at 06:00GMT for voters to cast their votes (until 21:00GMT), choppy range trading is likely to continue.
Some offers are tipped at 1.6325/35 and more above with stops touted above 1.6360. Some bids are noted at 1.6270-60 and more below with stops below 1.6240.

Earlier comments by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew who said the United States will closely follow the Scottish independence vote on Thursday because it has potentially big economic consequences.
Lew told students on Wed "we think a strong, united UK is important as the UK has been one of our best and most reliable partners for a very long time."
He added “it’s an internal debate within the UK right now but obviously there are potentially significant economic ramifications.” He said “we’re all watching with great interest what happens tomorrow.”

22

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

19 Sep 2014[/B] [I]01:10GMT[/I]
[B]
GBP/USD [/B]- … Cable continues to climb to intra-day high of 1.6523 after 2nd local council result (total 32) from Orkney Islands showed ‘No’ won by 67% vs ‘Yes’ at 33%.

Reuters reported results from smaller councils will appear before larger ones (for obvious reasons), big cities of Glasgow, Edinburgh & Aberdeen are expected to come around 04:00GMT.

Earlier, Cable rises again in Asia on Bloomberg TV news reporting the 1st local council (32 in total) results from Clackmannashire which showed ‘No’ won by 53.8% vs ‘Yes’ at 46.2% in the Scottish Independence referendum.

[B]Friday [/B]will see the release of Germany’s producer prices, eurozone current account, Canada’s core CPI, CPI inflation and wholesale trade and U.S. leading index.

23

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

22 Sep 2014
GBP/USD[/B] - … Despite cable’s retreat after intra-day rebound from 1.6288 (Aust.) to 1.6365 in Asia morning, price found support at 1.6334 shortly after European open due to renewed cross-buying in sterling vs euro n yen.

Buying interest is seen at 1.6330-20 with demand fm various accounts noted at 1.6305/00. On the upside, Offers are noted at 1.6365/70 n then 1.6380 with mixture of offers n stops placed at 1.6400-10.

Last Friday Cable swung wildly n to a lesser extent in today, Monday’s trading.
Despite an initial rally to 1.6525 in Asia, price tumbled to as low as 1.6284 near NY close on long liquidation as investors locked in gains after more voters in Scotland’s independence referendum elected to remain inside the United Kingdom. Price briefly rebounded to 1.6340 in Mon’s NZ n then retreated to 1.6385 b4 climbing back to 1.6364 in Tokyo lunch session.

With the referendum issue out of the way, investors are turning their attention back towards the Bank of England’s monetary policy stance n therefore, choppy range trading inside 1.6300-1.6400 is expected today.
Offers are noted at 1.6360-70 n around 1.6380 with mixture of offers n stops placed at 1.6400-10. On the downside, bids are located at 1.6285-80 with stops below there.

On Sunday, U.K. PM David Cameron’s office said:
‘Scotland will get more autonomy with no “ifs or buts”’, after Scottish leader Alex Salmond accused him and other politicians of tricking Scots out of independence.
‘It is the people who were persuaded to vote “No” who were misled, who were gulled, who were tricked effectively,’ Salmond told BBC TV, saying he thought last-minute promises of greater powers and continued higher-than-average funding, which he said were already unravelling, had swayed the vote’s outcome.
Cameron’s office responded by saying the government would stick to its promises. Miliband, leader of the Labour party, said on Sun he disagreed with the proposals because he thought more time and consultation was needed to work out a solution to ‘the English question’ accusing his rival of playing politics.
He told BBC ‘You know we’ve spent two years trying to keep our country together. Let’s have a proper constitutional convention, let’s look at these issues; Let’s not drive our country apart because David Cameron thinks it’s a sort of opportunity for him to do it.’

24

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

30 Sep 2014

GBP/USD[/B] - … U.K. Sept Nationwide house prices +9.4% y/y n -0.2% m/m. U.K.‘s Nationwide says ‘Q3 London house prices +21% y/y vs Q2 25.8%, 31% above 2007; U.K. house prices may soften in Q4, but outlook uncertain.’’

Cable shrugged off the release of weaker-than-expected house price data and climbed above Asian high of 1.6268 to 1.6271 shortly after European open.
Fresh bids are noted at 1.6240-30 and more at 1.6220/15, then 1.6210 with mixture of bids and stops emerging below 1.6200.
On the upside, offers are placed at 1.6275/80 and 1.6290/95 with stops placed just above 1.6300.

Earlier cable swung wildly on Monday as despite a brief fall to 1.6210 in tandem with euro at NZ open, price ratcheted higher in Asia and Europe on broad-based weakness in greenback.
Later, the British pound climbed to a session high of 1.6275 in NY morning before retreating to 1.6245 and then 1.6225 shortly after Asian open on Tuesday.

Range trading above yesterday’s low at 1.6210 is expected until European open as investors are reluctant to add bets ahead of the release of U.K. current account and the confirmation of Q2 GDP reading at 08:30GMT.
Bids are noted at 1.6220/15 n then 1.6210 with mixture of bids and stops located around 1.6200. On the upside, offers are placed at 1.6250-60 and then 1.6275/80 with stops placed just above 1.6300.

Market expects the U.K. Q2 final continues to post strong readings with a growth of 0.8% Q/Q and 3.2% Y/Y.
Meanwhile, economists estimate U.K. Q2 current account deficit to narrow to 17.00 bln pounds from 18.5 bln pounds in Q1 (in the other way to show increasing demand for pounds from foreigners).

25

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

02 Oct 2014

GBP/USD -[/B] ...... Cable swung wildly in Wednesday's session as despite falling to a fresh 2-week low of 1.6161 after release of downbeat U.K. mfg PMI in European morning, short-covering together with broad-based selling in greenback after downbeat U.S. data lifted price to 1.6252 in NY before retreating to 1.6173 on renewed cross-selling in sterling.

Later, price edged higher after NY closing and recovered to 1.6199 in Aust. and 1.6206 in Asian morning.

The overnight rebound after holding above yesterday’s low of 1.6161 suggests range trading is likely until European open, however, investors should pay attention to the release of U.K. Markit construction PMI at 08:30GMT.
In addition, investors should also closely watch the intra-day move of eur/gbp cross as yesterday’s recovery after failing to penetrate Tuesday’s 2-year low at 0.8766 may triggered broad-based short covering and pressure price here later in the day.

Bids are noted at 1.6185/80 and around 1.6170 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.6150/45 and further out at 1.6130.
On the upside, offers are placed at 1.6220-30 and then 1.6240/45 with stops emerging just above 1.6260.

[B]Data to be released on Thursday: [/B]

China market holiday, Australia new home sales, exports, imports, trade balance, UK construction PMI, EU producer prices, ECB rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, ISM New-York index, durable goods and factory orders.

26

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

03 Oct 2014[/B] 10:00GMT

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ..... The British pound tumbles in European trading after weaker-than-expected Y.K. services PMI. Sep reading hit a 3-month low of 58.7 vs street forecast of 59.1.

Intra-day decline accelerated after stops below Thursday’s 1.6112 low were tripped, price has hit intra-day low of 1.6065 at European mid day, the lack of a bounce suggests sterling bears are looking for a re-test of September’s 9-1/2 month trough at 1.6052, there is market chatter of fairly large stops building below there, so a break of this lvl may see another 15-20 points decline.

Offers have been lowered to 1.6080/90 and more above with some stops touted above 1.6110, therefore, selling sterling across the board ahead of U.S. jobs data is the way to go.

Reuters reported earlier that Makit/CIPS showed U.K. Service PMI falls to three-month low of 58.7 in September from Aug’s 60.5. Markit chief economist Chris Williamson said PMI suggested Q3 GDP +0.8%, only a shade lower than the 0.9% achieved in the Q2, however, risk is seen for a slowdown in Q4.

Cable briefly bounced to 1.6105 after the data but swiftly tanked to a fresh session low at 1.6079, near September’s 9-1/2 month trough at 1.6052.

27

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

06 Oct 2014[/B] [I]01:01GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ..... Cable came under renewed selling pressure at NZ open today on bearish comments by U.K. Business Secretary Vince Cable.

Bloomberg reported Vince Cable said U.K.'s economic growth is being hampered by stalled exports, partly as a result of the high value of sterling.

“Arguably, the pound is overvalued by 10 to 15% on a trade-weighted basis,” Cable told a side meeting yesterday at his Liberal Democrat party’s annual conference in Glasgow, Scotland. “This feeds back into monetary policy. It is a significant problem that we can’t directly address.”

His comments echo those of BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent, who said in an interview in July that it’s “quite possible” the pound is 10% overvalued n its strength may have a long-lasting impact on inflation. The IMF said the same month in its External Stability Report that the pound was overvalued by 10% to 15%.

Sterling is nursing loss in subdued Asian trading after opening lower in NZ on w/end bearish comments by U.K. Bus. Secretary Vince Cable. Short-term specs sold cable at Mon open on stop hunting, price briefly fell below Fri’s 1.5953 low to a near 1-year trough of 1.5943 (Reuters), however, lack of follow-through selling later lifted the pound at Asian open.

Although range trading is in store in quiet Asian morning, Fri’s sell off below Sept’s 1.6052 low suggests signals recent decline has once again, so selling cable on recovery is the way to go. Order board is pretty empty, some offers are noted at 1.5980/890 n more abv with stops touted abv 1.6050. Some bids are noted at 1.5945-35. The only data due out at London open is Halifax house price at 07:00GMT.

[B]Data to be released next week: [/B]

China market holiday, Germany industrial orders, UK Halifax house prices, EU sentix index and Canada Ivey PMI [B]on Monday. [/B]

New Zealand business confidence, Japan BoJ rate decision, leading indicators, Australia RBA rate decision, Germany industrial output, Swiss CPI, retail sales, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, Canada building permits and U.S. redbook retail sales [B]on Tuesday. [/B]

UK BRC shop price index, Japan current account, China HSBC services PMI, Swiss unemployment, Canada housing starts and U.S. FOMC minutes [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

Japan machinery orders, Australia employment, unemployment, consumer confidence, Germany imports, exports, trade balance, France imports, exports, trade balance, UK BoE rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, wholesale sales, wholesale inventories and Canada new housing price index [B]on Thursday. [/B]

Japan BoJ minutes, consumer confidence, France industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK trade balance, Canada employment, unemployment, U.S. export price index and import price index [B]on Friday. [/B]

28


DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 08 Oct 2014 01:02GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences

21 HR EMA
1.6080

55 HR EMA
1.6068

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Neutral

13 HR RSI
50

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Marginal rise b4 strg retreat

Resistance
1.6250 - Oct 2 high
1.6175 - Last Thur’s NY high
1.6129 - Y’day’s high

Support
1.6067 - Y’day’s NY low
1.6027 - Y’day’s Asian low
1.5997 - Prev. hourly res (now sup)

. GBP/USD - 1.6079… Although the British pound remained under pressure in Asia on Tue n fell to 1.6027, cable rose in tandem with euro to 1.6117 at European open n then 1.6129 in New York in part due to cross-buying of sterling together with dlr’s broad-based weakness on the sell off in global stock markets.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y’day’s ‘erratic’ rise to 1.6129 suggests the MT downtrend fm Jul’s near 2-year peak at 1.7192 has indeed formed a temporary low at 1.5943 on Mon n as long as 1.6027 sup (y’day’s low) holds, upside bias remains for marginal gain, however, hourly indicators wud display ‘bearish divergences’ on next rise, reckon 1.6180 (being 50% r of intermediate fall fm 1.6416-1.5943) wud cap upside n yield another decline later this week.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.6027 wud be the 1st signal aforesaid correction fm 1.5943 is over n below 1.5997 wud yield resumption of MT downtrend to re-test said sup, below wud encourage for weakness twd 1.5820 (61.8% proj. of the entire MT fall fm 1.7192-1.6052 measured fm 1.6525) later this month.

. Today, in view of abv analysis, we’re selling cable on next intra-day up move in anticipation of a strg retreat but 1.6000/10 wud hold fm here.

800×600

29

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

14 Oct 2014[/B] [I]08:30GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Cable falls to session low of 1.5979 immediately after release of U.K. inflation data. September annual CPI came in at 1.2% vs street forecast of 1.4% whilst month/month CPI came in at 0% vs forecast of 0.2%.

Sterling was already down vs euro & yen in European morning and the lower-than-expected inflation has deferred market speculation of a hike in the U.K. base rate by the BoE anytime soon in 2015.
Looks like sterling would remain under pressure in Europe n last Monday’s 11-trough at 1.5943 is now in focus.
Offers are noted at 1.6000/10 and more above, some bids are reported at 1.5960/50 with stops building below 1.5940.
Therefore, selling cable is the way to go today !!

30

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

24 Oct 2014[/B] [I]05:00GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ...... Cable fell yesterday to a near 1-week low after U.K. retail sales showed continued slowdown consumer spending & industrial orders, damping expectation on timing of the BoE's rate hike in 2015.

Britain’s brisk economic recovery is showing more signs of cooling after shoppers bought less, exporters took a hit fm Europe’s slump and banks approved the fewest mortgages in more than a year.
Data released on Thursday underscored why the BoE is signalling that it is in no rush to raise interest rates, even as U.K.'s economic growth continues to outpace that of most other industrialised nations.

Earlier, BoE deputy governor Ben Broadbent had said that any future rise in interest rates was likely to be gradual, and that underlying interest rates - which dictate investment returns n BoE policy - would stay low for some time.
In a third set of figures, factory export orders in the 3 months to Oct fell to their lowest level since the start of last year as Europe’s slowdown took its toll on British manufacturers.

Today’s prelim. Q3 GDP data are expected to show growth cooled in the 3 months to Sep to a quarterly 0.7% fm 0.9% in the Apr-Jun period. A further slowdown is possible in the final 3 months of the year.
The recovery in Britain’s economy has pushed the unemployment rate down to 6%. But pay is still lagging behind inflation, a reflection in part of how many people have found work in low-paying industries.

A survey published on Thursday showed the biggest fall in 4 years in one measure of consumer confidence as many of those workers feared they could lose their jobs as the economy cools off.

This morning, although cable recovered in tandem with euro in Euroepan trading on Thursday and rose to 1.6052 in NY morning after early intra-day sell off to 1.5995 after downbeat U.K. retail sales reports, price retreated to 1.6021 near NY close and then moved narrowly in Asia.
Looks like range trading above yesterday’s low at 1.5995 would continue in Asia as traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of the release of important U.K. preliminary estimate for Q3 GDP at 08:30GMT.
According to consensus forecast, UK GDP growth in third quarter is expected to have slowed down to an annual rate of 0.7% fm 0.9% in previous quarter due to the significant deceleration in the euro zone, which had been driven down by the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine.
Therefore, despite Thur’s rebound fm 1.5995, selling cable on recovery is still the favorable strategy.

31

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

03 Nov 2014

GBP/USD[/B] - ..... Despite cable's fall to a fresh 2-week low at 1.5926 in Asia, price recovered in tandem with euro and then climbed back to 1.5983 in European morning.

Offers are touted at 1.6000-10 and around 1.6030 with mixture of offers and stops emerging just above Friday’s high of 1.6038.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.5940-30 and then 1.5915/10 with demand from real money accounts is placed around 1.5900.
Investors are now awaiting the release of U.K. Markit/CIPS mfg PMI.

This morning Cable fell in tandem with euro shortly after Asian open as dlr continued to strengthen against other ccys after Friday’s BoJ’s surprise easing. The pound briefly tanked below Fri’s 2-week low of 1.5942 to 1.5928 b4 short-covering lifted price to 1.5971 n then 1.5975.

The intra-day rebound fm 1.5928 suggests a temporary low has been made n therefore, buying cable on dips for st trade was recommended, however, position traders can looked to sell cable on intra-day rise as dlr’s recent broad-based firmness led by usd/jpy suggests a test of Oct’s 11-month trough at 1.5875 wud be seen later this week. Offers was noted at 1.6000-10 n then 1.6025/30 with mixture of offers n stops emerging just abv Fri’s high of 1.6038.
On the downside, demand from real money accounts was placed around 1.5900 with buying interest from various accounts located further out at 1.5850-40.

On the data front, investors shud pay attention to the U.K. Markit/CIPS mfg PMI at 09:30GMT. The PMI has been losing ground in the 2nd half of 2014, n slipped to 51.6 points last month. Market forecasts the reading to weaken further to 51.2 in Oct.