AceTraderForex Aug 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views

Trading Discussion Currencies
21

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

10 Oct 2014[/B] [I]08:00GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ...... Italy's senior govt official says 'not worried about possibility of Italy's budget plan being rejected by EU.'

MNI, 'ECB’s Nowotny says would not rule out QE “perpetually”.'
MNI, ECB’s Hansson says ‘premature to put further monetary policy measures on the table already; question of whether to buy government bonds is for the future.’

Although euro weakened shortly after European open due to renewed broad-based strength in greenback n briefly fell below support in Australia at 1.2680 to 1.2671, price staged a recovery to 1.2686 after his comments. Offers are noted at 1.2690-00 n around 1.2710/15 with mixture of offers n stops emerging abv 1.2730. On the downside, bids are reported at 1.2660-50 n more below with stops emerging just below 1.2630.

German EcoMin said ‘outlook for exports remains “very restrained” in coming months; robust job market, rising incomes and stable prices mean private consumption will remain positive factor.’

22

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

13 Oct 2014

EUR/USD[/B] - … Euro jumps in early Asian trading on usd’s broad-based weakness despite ‘bearish’ comments from ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny who said the euro is very likely to keep weakening against other major currencies.

Source from WSJ where in an interview on the sidelines of IMF meetings, Nowotny was quoted as saying “due to the different tendencies in interest rate policies there is a great likelihood that this leads to a further depreciation of the euro.”

Traders reported fairly active buying of euro in NZ/Australian morning, price rose to 1.2648 and renewed buying emerged at Asian open, tripping stops above 1.2650, euro climbed to intra-day high of 1.2678/79.
Looks like Fri’s low at 1.2605 (NY) would continue to hold until European morning and with most financial markets in U.S. & Canada closed for a holiday, range trading is likely to take place after last week’s wild swings.

Bids have been raised to 1.2650-40 and more below with stops reported below 1.2600. Offers are noted at 1.2690/00 and more above with stops reported above 1.2720.

23

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

22 Oct 2014[/B] [I]02:26GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD [/B]- ...... Euro is nursing loss in Asia after yesterday's sell off from 1.2840 to as low as 1.2706 in Australia earlier today.

Despite extending Monday’s gain to 1.2840 in early European trading, heavy offers at 1.2840 checked intra-day gain and short-term euro bulls unwound their longs.
Breaking Reuters news of ECB was mulling corporate bond purchase as soon as at its December’s meeting for such action in early 2015 triggered broad-based selling in euro, price tanked to 1.2745 and despite a brief short-covering bounce to 1.2784, another wave of selling emerged and pressured price to 1.2716 in NY morning.
Euro edged lower to 1.2706 in Australia but talk of bids at 1.2725/00 lifted price in Asian morning.

Yesterday’s sell off suggests daily downside bias remains and there has been talk of fairly large stops building below 1.2700 as last Wednesday’s rally to 1.2888 after downbeat U.S. retail sales and subsequent sideways trading had lured euro buyers.
Offers are noted at 1.2740/50 and more above with some stops touted above 1.2780. Initial bids are noted at 1.2705-00 with stops below there.

Although euro is expected to remain under pressure on the ECB corporate bond buy plan in Europe, pay attention to release of U.S. inflation data (forecast for annual Sep core CPI is 1.7%).
If actual reading is below estimate, usd may fall broadly as this will dampen prospect of Fed tightening in 2015.

24

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

27 Oct 2014[/B] [I]02:15GMT[/I]

Euro rises above Friday’s 1.2696 top in Asia as release of Sunday’s stress tests report by the ECB on 130 banks showed no nasty surprises. Despite initial knee-jerk movement in Aust. on Monday (NZ was closed for a holiday), euro climbed in Asian morning after meeting buying interest at 1.2673.

Although consolidation with mild upside bias is likely ahead of European open and buying euro on dips is recommended, investors shud pay attention to the release of the important Ifo reports in European morning.
Ifo Institute will release its report on German business climate at 09:00GMT and market is expecting October’s reading to be 104.3, slightly worse than the previous reading at 104.7.

Bids are noted at 1.2680-70 and around 1.2660 with mixture of bids and stops emerging below 1.2650.
On the upside, offers are placed at 1.2700-10 and further out at 1.2720/25 with mixture of offers n stops located just above 1.2750.

Bloomberg reported on Sun 25 lenders among the 130 banks including Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA failed a stress test led by the ECB, which showed the biggest capital hole in the region’s banking system in Italy.

The ECB identified a total gap of 25 billion euros as of the end of 2013, most of which has now been raised by banks. Among lenders still in need of funds, Italy’s Monte Paschi (BMPS) n Banca Carige SpA (CRG) must find a combined 2.9 bln euros between them, the ECB said.

None of Europe’s largest banks were found lacking. No French, German or Spanish institutions were required to find more capital.
Lenders found to be deficient now have as many as nine months to fill gaps identified by the ECB, which is aiming to close the door on half a decade of financial turmoil in the euro region.

The results, on first impression, are “very positive” n should benefit some bank stocks on Mon, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note.

25

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

29 Oct 2014

EUR/USD[/B] - ...... Although the single currency rallied to 1.2765 in NY morning after disappointing U.S. durable goods orders, price retreated briefly to 1.2721 as U.S. Conference Board reported upbeat consumer confidence index (October's reading at 94.5 was the highest in 7 years), which was boosted by a more favorable assessment of the current job market and business conditions.

Later, euro recovered to 1.2753 and then moved sideways for rest of the NY session and well into Wednesday’s Asian morning.

As all eyes are on the release of Fed’s monetary policy announcement and the following Fed statement later today at 18:00GMT, range trading is envisaged in Asia n Europe.
France will release consumer confidence for Oct at 07:45GMT and economists expect the reading to be slightly better at 87 compares to 86 in previous month, however, it should have little impact on euro.

Offers are noted at 1.2750-60 and then 1.2780/85 with stops emerging above 1.2900, whilst bids are placed at 1.2710-00 and around 1.2680 with stops emerging further out below 1.2650.

Last night despite euro’s early brief rise to 1.2764 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. durable goods data, the single currency subsequently retreated on the robust U.S. consumer confidence. Offers was tipped at 1.2750-60 and more at 1.2780. On the downside, some bids was located at 1.2720-10 with stops building up below 1.2700.

26

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

29 Oct 2014 07:07GMT

EUR/USD[/B] - ....... Despite a brief drop to 1.2729 in Asian morning, euro edged higher ahead of European open on renewed broad-based weakness in greenback n briefly climbed to 1.2747.

Although marginal gain above yesterday’s high of 1.2765 may be seen, range trading below 1.2800 level is envisaged as investors are awaiting the FOMC monetary policy announcement n statement.
Offers are now noted at 1.2750-60 n then 1.2780/85 with stops emerging above 1.2900, whilst bids are touted at 1.2710-00 n around 1.2680 with stops emerging further out below 1.2650.

27

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

05 Nov 2014[/B] [I]02:04GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - 1.2553.. Ahead of Thurday's ECB policy meeting, WSJ reported the ultra low inflation becoming entrenched in Europe is playing out in strikingly different ways across the euro zone's 18 economies, complicating attempts to combat it.

In crisis-hit countries such as Greece n Spain, the detrimental effects of falling prices, known as deflation, are showing up clearly in strained profits n lower wages as companies try to adjust. But in healthier economies such as Germany n Austria, where unemployment is low and incomes are up, the most obvious impact is a boost to consumers’ purchasing power.

At 0.4% in annual terms, euro zone inflation is far below the ECB’s target of close-to 2%. A survey of purchasing managers released this week showed manufacturers cutting prices for a 2nd-straight month. The European Commission on Tuesday forecast inflation in the euro zone will remain below-target until at least 2016.

The ECB meets Thursday n is expected by analysts to refrain from new stimulus, but to keep the door open to dramatic measures such as gov’t bond purchases if needed. Officials have signaled that they prefer to wait for recent measures including interest-rate cuts, bank loans n private-debt purchases to take hold before weighing additional steps.

In Asian morning, the euro maintains a firm undertone following yesterday’s rally in NY morning to 1.2577. Price traded was above European low at 1.2501 in NY n jumped on Reuters report euro area central bankers were planning to challenge ECB President Draghi’s leadership style.

In its exclusive report, Reuters said the bankers are particularly angered that Draghi effectively set a target for increasing the ECB’s balance sheet immediately after the policy-making governing council explicitly agreed not to make any figure public, the sources said.

Some members intend to raise their concerns with Draghi at the governors’ traditional informal working dinner on Wednesday before their formal monthly rate-setting meeting on Thursday.
Despite the intra-day brief but sharp rise to 1.2577, euro later moved sideways on lack of follow-through buying n retreated to 1.2541.
Range trading was expected to continue in Asia with offers noted at 1.2575/80, stops were reported above there, however, more selling interest was noted at 1.2590/00.
On the downside, initial bids were reported at 1.2545-40 n more below with stops touted below 1.2500.

Pay attention to a slew of eco. data in European morning with Italy’s Markit services PMI, then the same fm France, Germany & the euro zone.

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday: [/B]

New Zealand’s HLFS unemployment rate, job growth and labour cost index, China’s HSBC services PMI, Swiss CPI, German Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit services PMI, eurozone retail sales, U.S. ADP National employment, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and employment index.

28

[B]
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

14 Nov 2014[/B] [I] 08:08GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ....... The release of slight better-than-expected German GDP triggered intra-day broad-based short covering in the euro earlier. Reuters reported the German economy grew by just 0.1% in the 3rd quarter of 2014, narrowly avoiding a recession thanks to a strong rise in consumer spending n small boost from foreign trade.

Some economists had feared Europe’s largest economy would sink into recession in the July-September period after a 2nd quarter contraction, but Germany managed to match a consensus forecast for 0.1% growth in a Reuters poll.

The Statistics Office said the main positive impulse came from private households “which sharply increased their spending” while foreign trade provided “a slight positive effect on GDP”.

Investments declined overall, the Statistics Office said, with investment in equipment declining sharply, investment in construction down slightly and a clear reduction in inventories.

Euro pares intra-day losses as early release of slightly better-than-expected French & German GDP triggered minor short-covering in the euro. As mentioned in previous update, st specs sold the euro at Asian open in anticipation of downbeat GDP readings from France, Germany, Italy & then EZ.
Intra-day decline accelerated in post-Tokyo lunch session on dovish comments by ECB Council member Noyer, euro fell to 1.2427 ahead of European open b4 rebounding to 1.2456 after the German GDP data.

Range trading above 1.2427 is expected until release of Italy’s GDP & later EZ GDP at 18:00GMT.
Offers are tipped at 1.2455/60 n more above with fairly stops reported above 1.2510.
Bids are noted at 1.2430-20 with stops below 1.2390.

29

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

20 Nov 2014[/B] [I]02:03GMT[/I]
[B]EUR/USD [/B]- … The single currency swung wildly on Wednesday as despite ratcheting higher from Asian low at 1.2513 to a fresh near 3-week high at 1.2602 in NY after release of FOMC minutes, renewed broad-based buying in greenback emerged and quickly knocked price down to 1.2525.
Later, euro recovered to 1.2556 in Thursday’s Australia before retreating to 1.2530 in Asian morning.

The overnight sell off and failure to close above 1.2600 level yesterday suggest initial choppy trading with downside bias would be seen and selling euro on recovery ahead of the release of a slew of PMI reports from EU and its member countries in European morning is the favorable strategy.
Offers are placed at 1.2550-60 and then 1.2575/80 with mixture of offers and stops emerging just above 1.2600.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.2510-00 and around 1.2480 with stops located just below 1.2450.

Last night the single currency briefly rose to 1.2602 after the release of FOMC minutes which showed many Federal Reserve policy makers last month said they should be on the lookout for signs of a decline in expectations for inflation, however, renewed dollar’s strength knocked price lower.

[B]Thursday[/B] will see the release of Japan’s export, imports, trade balance and manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, BoJ monthly economic survey, Germany’s producer prices ad Markit service PMI, EU Markit PMI, U.K. retail sales, CBI trade, Canada’s wholesale trade, U.S. CPI, Markit manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed business index, existing home sales, leading index change and consumer confidence.

30

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Nov 2014[/B] [I]02:21GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ..... The single currency weakened broadly on Friday after dovish comments from ECB's President Mario Draghi. Euro fell sharply against the greenback from 1.2553 to 1.2424 in European morning and continued to ratchet lower after a brief recovery to 1.2460.

Later, the pair fell to as low as 1.2375 in NY and then 1.2360 at Mon’s NZ open before recovering in thin Asian session.

Although euro’s failure to test Nov’s 26-month trough at 1.2357 suggests price is likely to stage a recovery ahead of European open, the single currency is expected to undergo another round of selling pressure later in the day due to recent ‘negative sentiment’.
Therefore, whilst investors may look to buy euro on dips for a recovery towards 1.2400 for st trade, preferred strategy is selling on intra-day rebound.
Bids are placed at 1.2370-60 with stops emerging just below 1.2350.
On the upside, offers are located at 1.2390-00 and then 1.2415/20 with mixture of offers and stops noted at 1.2440/45 and just above 1.2450.

Investors should pay close attention to the release of German IFO reports in European morning (09:00GMT). Market forecasts the headline IFO Business Climate Index to edge further down to 103.0 in Nov, below the 103.2 booked in October, which was the lowest level since Dec 2012.
Meanwhile, the Current Assessment sub-index is also seen edging down to 107.9, after posting a figure of 108.4 a month ago. Only the IFO Expectations Index is projected to rise to 98.6, from 98.3 in Oct.

[B]This week[/B] will see the release of following economic data:

Swiss non-farm payrolls, German Ifo business climate and U.S. Markit services PMI [B]on Monday[/B];

Japan’s BoJ meeting minutes, New Zealand’s RBNZ inflation expectation, German GDP, U.S. prelimary GDP, PCE prices and Redbook, Canada’s retails and U.S. monthly home price and consumer confidence [B]on Tuesday;[/B]

German import prices U.S. GDP and CBI distributive trades, U.S. core PCE, durables, personal income, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, new home sales, pending homes sales change and building permits [B]on Wednesday; [/B]

New Zealand’s trade balance, Australia’s HIA new home sales, Swiss GDP, U.K. Nationwide house prices, German unemployment rate, EU business climate, consumer confidence, economic sentiment, Germn Gfk consumer sentiment, HICP and CPI [B]on Thursday; [/B]

Japan’s unemployment rate, CPI, prelimary industrial output, IP forecast, retails sales, New Zealand’s NBNZ business outlook U.S. Gfk consumer confidence, Japan’s construction orders, housing starts, Swiss KOF indicator, EU inflation and unemployment rate, Canada’s GDP and producer prices [B]on Friday[/B]

31

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Nov 2014
EUR/USD[/B] - … Comments by ECB Council member Christian Noyer who is speaking at the Paris EUROPLACE International Financial Forum in Tokyo said, quote:
‘when policy rates go to zero, central banks must resort to unconventional measures to avoid involuntary policy tightening;
very low inflation can aggravate situation because this increases real interest rates;
monetary policy must aim at influencing both nominal rates and inflation expectations;
ECB’s purchases of covered bonds, abs will ease bank funding conditions, bring down risk premiums on private assets;
ECB’s action on nominal interest rates has been strong and efficient; governing council has unanimously stated commitment to using additional unconventional policy within its mandate if needed to fight low inflation;
governing council made unanimous commitment to protect against misperception ECB is more tolerant of low inflation;
governing council statement on balance sheet size is not a firm commitment but an expectation;
governing council statement on balance sheet is clear indication further policy action will not be limited by quantitative restraints;
communication about balance sheet size can help bring inflation expectations more in line with ECB’s definition of price stability;
Japan benefits from high wage flexibility, which helps competitiveness but may increase vulnerability to deflation;
in Europe, nominal wages are rigid and keep growing, which provides protection against deflation risk.’

32

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

26 Nov 2014[/B]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ....... This morning the single currency pared early losses as release of disappointing U.S. consumer confidence in NY morning following upbeat U.S. Q3 GDP (2nd reading) triggered broad-based selling in greenback. Euro rebounded strongly after a brief dip to 1.2402 and then rallied to session highs of 1.2486 b4 retreating to 1.2459 on profit-taking.

As euro has maintained a biddish tone in Asian morning, suggesting buying euro on dips for marginal gain above 1.2500 level is recommended, however, daily outlook remains consolidative and last week’s peak at 1.2602 should remain intact today.
Although eco. data from EU countries due out in European morning may have little impact on euro, investors are unlikely to enter large position ahead of the release of a slew of U.S. data in NY morning.

At present this morning, bids was placed at 1.2460/55 and then 1.2440-30 with stops emerging below 1.2410, whilst offers from various accounts are located at 1.2490-00 and near 1.2520 with a mixture of offers and stops emerging above 1.2550.

Last night despite euro’s brief drop to 1.2403 in NY morning after the release of robust U.S. GDP data, the single currency subsequently rebounded on dlr’s broad-based weakness after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence.
Euro then jumped to as high as 1.2486 before easing. Bids were located at 1.2460-50 and more at 1.2430. On the upside, offers were tipped at 1.2485-90 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 1.2500 last night

33

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Nov 2014[/B] [I]02:36GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD [/B]- … Euro strengthened against the dlr on Wednesday as despite a brief retreat from 1.2495 to 1.2444 in European morning after dovish comments from ECB’s Constancio, the single currency rebounded due to dlr’s broad-based weakness after release of a slew of weak U.S. economic data and rallied to 1.2532 in NY morning before retreating.

Yesterday’s intra-day rally suggests euro would continue to move inside the near ‘3-week long’ broad range of 1.2357-1.2602 and stronger gain toward 1.2565/75 is likely to be seen later today .
Bids are placed at 1.2490-80 and around 1.2470/65 with stops emerging below 1.2450, whilst offers are located at 1.2525/30 and then 1.2545/50 with stops located just above 1.2550.

Investors should pay attention to the release of German unemployment data at 08:55GMT, follow by euro zone economic sentiment reports at 10:00GMT. Street forecast for German unemployment rate to remain the same at 6.7% in November whilst unemployment change this month to be -4K compare to previous reading of -22K.

Last night ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Jazbec said that the European Central Bank’s monetary policy alone cannot solved the euro zone’s problems on its own and it needed to be complemented by other policies such as investment.

[B]Thursday [/B]will see the release of New Zealand’s trade balance, Australia’s HIA new home sales, Swiss GDP, U.K. Nationwide house prices, German unemployment rate, EU business climate, consumer confidence, economic sentiment, Germn Gfk consumer sentiment, HICP and CPI.

34

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Dec 2014

EUR/USD -[/B] ...... The single currency ratcheted lower on Wednesday and tumbled to a fresh 27-month low at 1.2301 after as a survey showed euro zone business activity grew less than thought last month. Market players are focusing on today's ECB rate decision and statement. ECB is widely expected to keep interest rate unchanged and more stimulus measures are expected from ECB.

Offers this morning was now tipped at 1.2330-40 and more at 1.2355-60.
On the downside, mixture of bids and stops was located at 1.2300 option barrier.

Reuters reported Greece will have to ask for an extension on its bailout programme before parliaments in euro zone nations close for Christmas because a new credit line will not be ready in time, a senior euro zone official said on Wed.

After 2 bailouts totalling 240 bln euros since 2010, Greece wants to switch back to market financing from the start of next year but disagreement over Greece’s funding needs next year means the euro zone cannot sign off on a back-up credit line.

“I’m willing to work on Dec. 24 but parliaments are not around,” the official told reporters on condition of anonymity, setting Dec. 15 as the cut-off date for prolonging Greece’s existing programme into Jan so that lenders can make a final 1.8 bln euro payment. All euro zone parliaments must approve that extension.

Greece and its lenders aimed to get a deal on a credit line - which Athens would only tap in an emergency - by next Mon when the IMF, the European Commission n the ECB, or troika, report back to euro zone FinMins in Brussels.

The official said that ideally Greece should formally request the credit line n the technical extension at the same time, although he saw this as unlikely to happen on Monday.

35

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

05 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:18 GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] ...... Euro staged a ferocious rally after ECB President left the door open on the exact timing of next stimulus move. Reuters reported the ECB will decide early next year whether to take further action to revive the euro zone's economy, its president said on Thur, signalling that he would not allow opposition from Germany or anyone else to stop it.

In his clearest language yet, Mario Draghi underlined the central bank’s commitment to supporting the ailing economy of the 18-country bloc, and argued the case for printing fresh money to buy assets such as state bonds. But his remarks, which came within minutes of a meeting where he clashed with German officials over his ambitions, set him on a possible collision course with the euro zone’s biggest and single most important country.

Very low inflation is seen as a trigger for ECB action such as printing fresh money to buy gov’t bonds, a step known as quantitative easing (QE) which Germany opposes. “QE has been shown to be effective in the U.S. & U.K.,” Draghi told journalists at a press conference, saying that he would not ‘tolerate’ the prospect of price stability, the ECB’s central goal, drifting off course. Perhaps most significantly, however, Draghi made clear that he would face down the considerable political opposition to further radical action.

The single currency swung wildly on Thursday. Despite euro’s weakness to a fresh 27-month low of 1.2280 at the start of ECB’s press conference, the pair rebounded strongly to as high as 1.2457 as ECB refrained from adding stimulus measures and will review the monetary policy in Q1 2015. However, renewed selling knocked price lower to 1.2360 near New York close.

Offers are now reported at 1.2400-10 n more at 1.2430-50.
On the downside, mixture of bids n stops seen at 1.2360 n 1.2340.
Investors are now focusing on the release of Germany’s industrial orders at 07:00GMT and euro zone revised GDP data at 10:00GMT.

[B]Friday’s [/B]will see the release of Japan’s Leading Indicator, Germany’s Industrial Orders, UK Consumer inflation expectations, euro zone revised GDP, US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings, Canada’s Unemployment Rate, Employment Change and Trade Balance, US Factory Orders and Durable Goods.

36

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Dec 2014

EUR/USD[/B] - ...... Euro rises above yesterday's high made in NY at 1.2344 as renewed broad-based weakness in the greenback triggered more short covering in the single currency.

Although euro came under initial selling pressure at Asian opening following yesterday’s strong rebound from 1.2257 to 1.2344 on WSJ report (see 03:05GMT MMN for details) that some FOMC members are seriously considering dropping an assurance that short-term interest rates will stay near zero for a “considerable time” when the Fed releases its policy statement next Wed, buying at 1.2292 emerged n lifted price.
Price traded sideways even though dlr/yen was tanking iat Asian midday due to active selling in eur/yen on risk aversion after Nikkei & Asian stocks fell, euro ratcheted higher in post-Asian lunch session and present break of said Monday’s 1.2344 after tripping stops above 1.2345 suggests euro is headed higher in European morning on further short-covering in euro, so buying the pair on dips is the way to go.

Bids have been raised to 1.2340-20 area with stops below 1.2290.
Some offers are reported at 1.2380/90 with stops touted above 1.2400.

37

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

16 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:23GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ....... The single currency fell on Monday after comments from ECB's Nowotny who said 'no prospect for more interest rate moves; not goal of ECB to have uniform interest rates in Europe; ECB efforts can function only if complemented by fiscal policy moves; take-up TLTROs won't have big impact on ECB balance sheet; rules out ECB buying bonds on primary market; prospect of QE depends on economic situation; ECB will take care that its policy does not lead to restrictive effects; Eurozone inflation will probably decline in Q1, driven by energy prices.'

However, buying interest at 1.2416 lifted the pair to 1.2479/80 in NY before trading sideways.
Bids are now located at 1.2425-20 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.2400.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.2470-75 and more at 1.2485-90 with stops building up at 1.2500.

Yesterday, ECB’s Visco said, quote:
'oil price falls will further lower inflation in coming months, many at ECB support containing deflation risk.'
Also yesterday, BundesBank statement:
‘ECB council unanimous in agreeing to use additional unconventional measures if needed;
risks to Euro zone economic outlook are on the downside; this would mean changing scope, pace n composition of ECB measures at start of next year; sustained drop in oil price would result in 0.4% cut to its 2015 German inflation forecast.’

[B]Tuesday[/B] will see the release of Australia’s RBA Minutes, Japan Normura/JMMA manufacturing PMI, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Markit Manufacturing PMI and Service PMI for France, Germany and Eurozone, Italy’s Trade Balance, UK’s Bank stress test results, PPI, CPI,RPI, BoE Financial Stability Report, Germany ZEW Current Conditions, Eurozone’s trade balance, ZEW Economic Sentiment, Canada’s Manufacturing sales, U.S.'s Building Permits, Housing Starts, Redbook and Markit Manufacturing PMI.

38

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:20GMT [/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ........ The single currency remained under pressure in Asian morning today after last Friday's breach of 1.2247 (Dec 08 low) to 1.2220 due to the dovish comments from European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio who said in a magazine interview he expected the euro zone inflation rate to turn negative in the coming months but that if this was just a temporary phenomenon, he did not see a risk of deflation.

Offers are now tipped at 1.2245-50 and more at 1.2270 whilst bids are located at 1.2220 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.2200.

On Sunday, Greek PM Antonis Samaras urged lawmakers to elect a new president and offered the prospect of general elections by the end of next year once negotiations with international creditors are complete.
Speaking in an unscheduled television address on Sunday, he said Greece had a duty to finish negotiations with the European Union and the IMF.
The unexpected announcement comes 2 days ahead of the 2nd round of voting in parliament to elect a new president n follows a disappointing result for the goverment’t in the 1st round last week when it won less support than expected.

If parliament does not elect a president by the 3rd and final round of voting on Dec. 29, a snap general election would have to be held by early Feb., putting talks on ending Greece’s international bailout programme at risk.

[B]This week[/B] will see the release of:

New Zealand’s Westpac consumer survey, Japan’s BoJ Monthly Economic Survey, Germany’s Import Price Index, Italy’s Trade Balance, Eurozone’s U.S.'s Existing Home Sales [B]on Monday[/B].

New Zealand’s Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, China’s CB Leading Economic Index, France’s GDP, Producer Prices, Italy’s Retail Sales, U.K.'s BBA Mortgage Approvals, Current Account, GDP, U.S.'s GDP, Personal Consumption, Redbook, Housing Price Index, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales, Personal Income, Personal Spending [B]on Tuesday.[/B]

Australia’s CB Leading Indicator, Switzerland’s KOF Leading Indicator; U.S. Initial Jobless Claims [B]on Wednesday.[/B]

Japan’s BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. New Zealand, Australia, China, Eurozone countries and North America are on Christmas Holiday [B]on Thursday. [/B]

New Zealand, Australia, Italy, Germany, Canada are on Boxing day holiday [B]on Friday. [/B]

39

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:16GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ....... The single currency met renewed selling interest at 1.2272 on Monday and fell to a fresh 27-month low at 1.2217 new New York close due to dollar's broad-based strength on renewed risk appetite following the rise in global stock markets.

Offers are now tipped at 1.2245-50 and more at 1.2265-70.
On the downside, some bids are located at 1.2220-15 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.2200.

Euro is expected to remain under pressure for the rest of this year on speculation the European Central Bank will add stimulus next year as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates.

In other news, S&P said on Monday that it still sees the first rate hike in June 2015, and says the Fed Funds rate can go as high as 1.25% by 2015 end. This corresponds with the Fed’s own projection which had the range of Fed Funds between 1.000 and 1.25% (or 1.125% for the average of the low to high range).

[B]Tuesday[/B] will see the release of New Zealand’s Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, China’s CB Leading Economic Index, France’s GDP, Producer Prices, Italy’s Retail Sales, U.K.'s BBA Mortgage Approvals, Current Account, GDP, U.S.'s GDP, Personal Consumption, Redbook, Housing Price Index, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales, Personal Income, Personal Spending.

40

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

29 Dec 2014[/B] [I]01:08GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ....... Euro came under initial selling pressure ahead of Asian open as short-term specs sold the single currency on political woes in Greece following w/end comments by Greek PM Samaras and German FinMin Schaeuble.

Reuters reported Greek PM Antonis Samaras faces a vote in parliament later toay that will decide whether the country goes to snap elections that could bring the leftwing Syriza party to power n derail an international bailout. Voting is due to start at midday (10:00 GMT), with the result likely around an hour later.

Reuters also reported Samaras warned lawmakers on Saturday against the snap election that will be called if he loses a key presidential vote in parliament on Monday, but said he was confident of winning if Greeks did go to the polls.

Speaking before Monday’s decisive round in the election of a successor to head of state Karolos Papoulias, Samaras said a general election, which must be held if a new president cannot be appointed, was against the national interest.

“The Greek people do not want early elections,” he told state television in an interview. “I have done and I am doing everything to ensure a president is elected and snap elections are averted,” Samaras said.

His comment came on the same day German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that any Greek gov’t would have to respect commitments already made by Athens.

More w/end news worth noting which also contributed to euro’s initial weakness ahead of Asian open Monday. Reuters reported German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble expressed his reservations against the ECB launching a bond buying stimulus program and praised Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann’s arguments against such moves.

In an interview with Bild newspaper on Sat, Schaeuble repeated his view that structural reforms are needed in some of the struggling euro zone countries.

“The ECB can make its decisions independently,” Schaeuble said. “But cheap money should not be allowed to dent the reform zeal in some countries. There is no alternative to structural reforms - if things are going to improve again.”

Schaeuble, when asked whether Weidmann has enough clout in the ECB, said: “Germany’s voice has weight…But even if we’re the strongest economy, Germany can’t always get its way. At the end of the day a compromise is what’s needed. But the arguments from Jens Weidmann are strong and are listened to in the ECB.”

He added Chancellor Angela Merkel and he have an open dialogue with Draghi. “The Chancellor n me, the finance minister, are constantly having intensive discussions with Mario Draghi.”