AceTraderForex Jun 9: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released toda

Trading Discussion Currencies
21

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

11 Jul 2014[/B] [I]01:57GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] -  ...  Japan FinMin Aso said "Japan long-term interest rates at 0.54% are abnormal".

The greenback remained under pressure on Thursday and intra-day decline gathered momentum after penetrating 101.45 support to a fresh 7-week low at 101.07 due to active cross buying in jpy on renewed risk aversion before staging a recovery to 101.39 in Asian morning.
Offers are now tipped at 101.45-50 n more at 101.60 with stops only seen above 101.70.
On the downside, some bids are located at 101.15-10 with mixture of bids n stops seen at 101.00.

Wraping up from last night, Fed’s George said 'concerned about effects of higher food prices on lower-income households; formulas that guide interest rate changes point to liftoff from 0 as early as this year; anxious to work twd process of policy normalization.'
The single currency Euro had finally gained some respite in NY session after intra-day sharp retreat from 1.3650 to 1.3589 in NY morning on risk aversion due to growing concerns over Portuguese bank BES.
Offers were now seen at 1.3615/20 n more above at 1.3630/40 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids were noted at 1.3580/90, suggesting selling on any recovery was still the favored strategy.

[B]Data to be released on Friday:[/B]

Australia new home loans, Germany CPI, HICP, WPI, France current account, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and U.S. Fed budget.

22

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

14 Jul 2014[/B] [I]02:26GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ... The greenback edged higher in Asia on Mon and briefly penetrated Fri's high of 101.39 to 101.41 due to broad-based softness in yen as the BoJ kicked off its latest two-day monetary policy meeting today with the board expected to stand pat.

Offers from various accounts are noted at 101.50-60 with mixture of offers and stops emerging above 101.80.
On the downside, bids are placed at 101.30/25 and then 101.15/10 with stops located just below 101.00.

Earlier Japan PM Abe said that he wanted a summit with China at Nov Apec meeting.

[B]Data to be released next week: [/B]

Japan capacity utilization, industrial output and EU industrial production [B]on Monday. [/B]

Australia RBA minutes, Japan BoJ rate decision, Swiss PPI, UK BRC retail sales, CPI, PPI, PPI input, PPI output, RPI, core RPI, Italy CPI, Germany ZEW current conditions, economic sentiment, U.S. retail sales, export prices, import prices, Redbook retail sales and business inventories [B]on Tuesday.[/B]

New Zealand CPI, China GDP, retail sales, industrial output, Italy trade balance, UK ILO unemployment, claimant count, Swiss ZEW sentiment, U.S. PPI, core PPI, net L-T flows, capacity utilization, industrial output, NAHB housing market index, Fed beige book and Canada BoC rate decision [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

Australia NAB business confidence, EU CPI, U.S. building permits, housing starts and jobless claims [B]on Thursday.[/B]

EU current account, Canada CPI, core CPI and U.S. U. of Michigan consumer sentiment [B]on Friday.[/B]

23

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

15 Jul 2014 [/B] [I]01:29GMT[/I]

[B]AUD/USD[/B] - Statement just released by [B]RBA[/B] minutes of its July 1st monetary policy meeting, quote :

1 on present indications, prudent to have period of steady rates;
2 repeats A$ high by historical standards, particularly given drop in commodity prices;
3 A$ offering less assistance to the economy than it might otherwise;
4 board noted NZD and CAD also high, were most surprised by low level of US dollar;
5 members agreed was difficult to judge if low rates would offset mining, fiscal drag;
6 further substantial falls in mining investment expected, public demand to be weak;
7 economic growth seen a little below trend over coming year, inflation in target band;
8 significant amount of monetary stimulus already in place to support economy;
9 RBA saw some improvement in labour market, only moderate jobs growth expected;
10 household consumption had eased, liaison suggested retail sales little changed from may to June;
11 strong growth in home building expected, non-mining investment rising gradually;
12 labour costs subdued, members noted productivity had improved across economy.

AUD briefly dipped to intra-day low of 0.9384 b4 rebounding to 0.9402 after the minutes were released as Reuters headline:
“Australia c.bank sets steady course for rates amid economy doubts” suggests no rate cut will be made any time soon.

Next RBA meeting will be on Aug 5.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]

Australia RBA minutes, Japan BoJ rate decision, Swiss PPI, UK BRC retail sales, CPI, PPI, PPI input, PPI output, RPI, core RPI, Italy CPI, Germany ZEW current conditions, economic sentiment, U.S. retail sales, export prices, import prices, Redbook retail sales and business inventories.

24

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

17 Jul 2014 [/B] [I]02:31GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] -  ... The greenback traded with a soft bias below Wednesday's high of 101.79 in Asian morning and retreated to 101.52 due partly to cross-buying in yen vs other currencies.

Eur/Jpy dropped to a fresh 5-month low at 137.38 whilst aud/jpy and gbp/jpy retreated from 95.29 to 95.04 and fm 174.34 to 174.01 respectively.

Investors are reluctant to enter big position ahead of U.S. jobless claims and housing data due at 12:30GMT. Range trading is envisaged in Asia and Europe, therefore, buying dlr on dips is the way to go.
Market forecasts the U.S. jobless claims to be up by 6K to 310K from previous reading of 304K and U.S. housing starts and building permits in June to be increased to 1.018 mln and 1.040 mln respectively.

At the moment, bids are noted at 101.50/45 and then 101.30-20 with stops emerging below 101.00, whilst offers from various accounts are placed at 101.75/80 and around 101.90 with stops located just above 102.00.

[B]Data to be released on Thursday: [/B]

Australia leading indicator, NAB business confidence, EU inflation, U.S. housing starts, building permits and jobless claims.

25

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

18 Jul 2014[/B] [I]02:14GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ... comments from Japan's FinMin Taro Aso said: " need to watch negative impact on economy such as oil prices due to situation over Ukraine including downing of Malaysian airliner.

Dlr weakened slightly below o/n NY low at 101.17 to 101.09 in Australia this today as investors weighed risks after President Barack Obama said the U.S. would assist in determining the cause of the crash of a Malaysia Airlines plane near the Russia-Ukraine border. However, short covering in yen crosses lifted price and dlr climbed back to 101.30.

At the moment, offers are noted at 101.40-50 n then 101.65/70 with stops emerging above Wed’s high of 101.79. On the downside, bids are placed at 101.00 n around 101.85 with stops located just below 2014 bottom at 100.76 (Feb). Selling dlr on recovery is cautiously favoured as demand for yen on risk aversion after yesterday’s Malaysian Airplanes plane crash should continue to pressure usd/jpy in Asia.

Earlier BoJ minutes stated, quote:
most members shared view that BoJ would continue with QE to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as necessary;
members shared view that impact of QE is firmly taking hold, supporting firms’ and households’ spending;
members agreed that geopolitical risks continue to warrant attention;
some members said decline in interest rates worldwide might reflect weaker outlook for mid- to long-term growth;
members agreed Asian economies likely to lack momentum because of weak demand, especially in Thailand;
members shared view that the economy continues to recover moderately as a virtuous cycle among production, income and spending continued to operate;
members agreed that Japan’s exports had leveled off but were likely to increase moderately, mainly due to a recovery in overseas economies.’

[B]Data to be released on Friday: [/B]

Japan BoJ minutes, China house prices, EU current account, Canada CPI, wholesale trade, U.S. leading indicators and U. of Michigan consumer sentiment.

26

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

21 Jul 2014[/B] [I]02:17GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ... The greenback traded with a soft bias in Asia this morning n moved lower from Australian high of 101.37 to 101.27 in part due to cross-buying in yen vs other CCYs as risk aversion remained after the shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines jet in eastern Ukraine last Fri.

Today, expect range trading with mild downside bias until European open as market is thin in Asia due to national holiday in Japan. There are no major economic data release from U.S. and therefore, fund flow should be the main drive for this pair’s direction.

At the moment, offers are noted at 101.35/40 and then 101.55/60 with stops emerging above last Wed’s high of 101.79, whilst bids are noted at 101.15/10 and around 101.00 with mixture of bids and stops located at 101.80 and just below 2014 bottom at 100.76 (Feb).

[B]Data to be released this week: [/B]

Japan market holiday, UK house prices, Germany PPI, Italy industrial sales and industrial orders [B]on Monday. [/B]

China leading index, Japan leading index, Swiss trade balance, UK PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends, U.S. CPI, core CPI, Redbook retail sales, home price and existing home sales [B]on Tuesday.[/B]

Australia CPI, France business climate, UK BoE minutes, BBA mortgage approvals, Italy trade balance, Canada retail sales and EU consumer confidence [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

NZ RBNZ rate decision, trade balance, imports, exports, Japan exports, imports, manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Italy retail sales, UK retail sales, U.S. jobless claims, manufacturing PMI and new home sales[B] on Thursday. [/B]

Japan National CPI, Tokyo CPI, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, Ifo current conditions, expectations, business climate, Italy unemployment, UK GDP and U.S. durable goods [B]on Friday.[/B]

27

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

22 Jul 2014[/B] [I]02:12GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- .... The greenback strengthened ahead of Asian open today as risk appetites improved after comments from Japan economy minister Amari (see our prev. MMN). Broad-based selling in yen pushed dlr rose above yesterday's high of 101.39 to 101.52 b4 easing.

Today, expect the greenback to trade with a mild upside bias ahead of European open but gain should be ltd due to thin market condition as investors are on the sidelines to monitor development of events in Ukraine and Gaza. Having said that, market participants should pay attention to the U.S.'s CPI and existing home sales due out at 12:30GMT n 14:00GMT respectively. Market forecasts CPI m/m for Jun to be lowered to 0.2% from previous reading of 0.3%, whilst core CPI m/m in Jun also to be reduced to 0.3% from previous reading of 0.4%. Meanwhile, market expects the existing home sale for Jun to be 2.0% and 4.95 mln units.

At the moment, offers are noted at 101.60-70 n then 101.75/80 with stops emerging above 102.00, whilst bids from various accounts are placed at 101.40-30 n around 101.20 with stops located just below 101.10.

The United Nations Security Council condemned the downing of a Malaysian passenger plane in Ukraine with 298 people on board and demand that armed groups allow safe, secure, full and unrestricted access to the crash.

Earlier, Bloomberg headline which came out in Australia, Kyodo news reported comments from Japan economy minister Amari who said Japan to decide on 10% sales tax hike in early Dec.

Dlr climbed on the news ahead of Asian open and hit intra-day high of 101.51 after tripping stops above last Fri’s top at 101.45.

U.S. President Barack Obama & Polish President Komorowski stress in call need for “transatlantic solidarity” in response of Malaysia plane & “Russia’s efforts to destabilise Ukraine” - White House.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday:[/B]

The release of China leading index, Japan leading index, Swiss trade balance, UK PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends, U.S. CPI, core CPI, Redbook retail sales, home price and existing home sales.

28

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

23 Jul 2014[/B] [I]01:33GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B].... Statement from BoJ's Deputy Governor Nakaso quote: 'Japan's economy continues to grow above its potential; domestic demand is firm but exports continue to move sideways;

expect Japan’s economy to continue to grow above its potential as virtuous cycle is sustained;
QQE exerting its intended effect with long-term yields moving stably, inflation expectations rising as a whole;
Japan eyeing end of deflation but still half-way through in meeting BoJ’s price target;
won’t hesitate to adjust policy if risks threaten change to our economic, price projections;
no evidence to confirm view that U.S. is suffering “secular stagnation”; situation in Ukraine, Russia a potential risk for global outlook, warrants attention;
I am somewhat concern about slow growth in emerging economies, particularly in Asia; decline in Japan’s private consumption broadly in line with initial expectations;
pace of recovery in Japan’s exports has been slower than in the past when considering pace of recovery in global growth, yen moves;
Japan’s real exports are expected to increase moderately, though must watch developments “without undue optimism”; Japan likely to achieve 2% inflation in or around fiscal 2015.’

Earlier quoting source from the Nikkie which said Abe advisers urge an initial 2% corporate tax cut.

[B]Wednesday [/B]will see the release of Australia CPI, France business climate, UK BoE minutes, BBA mortgage approvals, Italy trade balance, Canada retail sales and EU consumer confidence.

29

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views[/B]

[B]23 Jul 2014[/B] [I]05:20GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- .... Statement from BoJ's Deputy Governor Nakaso quote:

‘Japan’s economy recovering moderately as a trend, impact of sales tax hike easing; sales tax hike reduces real household income, so must watch its impact on consumption;
global financial regulation must be created in a way that does not excessively hamper private-sector banking activity;
too early to debate specific exit strategy for BoJ’s QEE programme;
BoJ has experience exiting previous QE in 2006 and already has various means to withdraw liquidity;
how to use such means to withdraw liquidity and in what order, would depend on economic, price conditions at the time;
BoJ won’t be able to use same exit strategy as when it ended previous QE, as its balance sheet is larger and debt duration is longer;
monetary policy has a role to lay in addressing financial imbalances ;
in general, prolonged ultra-loose policy may spur excessive risk taking, but no such behavior seen in Japan.’

23 Jul 2014 02:17GMT
USD/JPY - … Although dlr edged higher in Tokyo morning n climbed to 101.54, renewed broad-based buying in yen quickly emerged after comments BoJ’s Deputy Governor Nakaso (see our prev. MMN) n pressured price to 101.39.

Today, the greenback shud remain supportive as the release of solid U.S. inflation and existing home sales numbers y’day determines that the U.S. economy continues to improve n is in need of less support fm the Federal Reserve. Therefore, buying dlr on dips in anticipation of next intra-day upmove is recommended, however, as broad outlook is consolidative n in an absence of U.S. economic events in U.S. today, reckon renewed selling may emerge below last Wed’s high of 101.79 n yield retreat later.

At the moment, bids are noted at 101.25/20 n around 101.10 with stops emerging just below 101.00. On the upside, offers are placed at 101.55/60 n then 101.70 with mixture of offers n stops located at 101.95/00.

Earlier quoting source fm the Nikkie which said Abe advisers urge an initial 2% corporate tax cut.

30

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY AUD/USD

24 Jul 2014[/B] [I]00:42GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - 101.53...  BoJ's board member Shirai gave the following statements:

‘BoJ sees long-term inflation expectations in moderate rising trend, must closely monitor whether this trend will continue;
transforming public’s deflation mindset will take some time but positive developments gradually starting to spread;
BoJ’s goal of “sustaining 2% inflation in stable manner” is equivalent to stabilizing long-term inflation expectations at around 2%;
assigning too many objectives to monetary policy without allocating sufficient policy tools may be potentially problematic.’

Japan June trade balance -822.2 bln yen, exports -2.0% y/y n imports +8.4%.

[B]24 Jul 2014[/B] [I]01:54GMT[/I]
[B]AUD/USD[/B] - … Despite Aussie’s retreat from yesterday’s high of 0.9463 ahead of Asian open, price staged a strong rebound from 0.9435 after release of better-than-expected China HSBC manufacturing PMI and rose to 0.9470.

China HSBC July flash PMI came in at 18-month high of 52.0.

[B]Thursday [/B]will see NZ RBNZ rate decision, trade balance, imports, exports, Japan exports, imports, manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Italy retail sales, UK retail sales, U.S. jobless claims, manufacturing PMI and new home sales.