Same here, I’m staying on the sidelines for AUDUSD for now. Looks like both currencies are fundamentally strong so the pair might range for a while, unless risk sentiment shows a clearer direction.
The AUSSIE confirmed a negative closing on Friday while remaining interior the previous day’s range forming a new inside day with 0,9390 – 0,9315 the levels to follow in the coming hours! The closing was again below the 100 days line! The weekly closing was positive as well as the monthly one where it even failed to confirm the previous months’ negative month reversal.
The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive as well as those of the weekly one but the indicators of the monthly chart are negative. The indicators of the s/t charts are mixed today suggesting some consolidation. However, while above the 200 hours line at 0,9320 we expect the AUSSIE to move higher toward a possible target at 0,9382!!
We stay on the sideline following the inside day!
The pair confirmed a weak closing last night but it is already recovering all what it made yesterday on the downside. A closing at the present levels will confirm a positive outside day suggesting a retest of the 0,9375 level that could be the neck line of a reversed S_H_S formation with a double head or a double bottom!! The indicators of the daily chart are already returning above the line and of course also those of the s/t ones are positive suggesting higher levels. In the hourly chart we have however overbought conditions after having formed bullish divergences on the way down. An hourly closing above 0,9366 will however abort the negative reversals already re-launching the move up! We stay on the side line waiting for confirmations!
The pair confirmed a positive closing last night but it failed to confirm the move above 0,9375 and even that above the 55 days line at 0,9356. However, while above the 0,9340 level we expect the AUSSIE to try further on the upside!! The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive for now while those of the s/t charts are showing a mixed picture suggesting some consolidation/ correction. However, only a break below 0,9330 will support a deeper correction; while above we favour a 0,9400 overshooting!!
After finally breaking below the 200-day moving average on 9/10 (and making a new 100-day low), I waited for the first positive day which came on 9/16 with a 126 pip move up. I put on an order to get in just below any new break to a new low and it was triggered the very next day on 9/18 and I went short at 0.8979. We are now less than 30 pips from the January low into territory not seen since 2010.
Tracking the 3-day high, my stop has me locking in 87 pips and I am waiting for the 7-day high to catch up with my stop so I can groom it along the 7-day high while letting this trade breathe. Don’t pick bottoms, stay short.