Balls Of Steel - trading volatile pairs

I got in at 2.2530

I’m with you as well. I’ve had a good day today already, this could be another nice little earner

Be aware of the UK decision tomorrow. If the vote moves to 9-0 it could cause some pretty big spikes.

Agree, I’m not expecting a change but would hope for 8:1.

Hello Eddie and Kev; sorry to be a know-it-all, but really there has not been much of a shift for months,

just looking at the BoE’s own MOPC voting spreadsheet here

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjztN_R7c_JAhWCeQ8KHZ8FAKgQFggxMAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bankofengland.co.uk%2Fmonetarypolicy%2FDocuments%2Fmpcvoting.xls&usg=AFQjCNGWKkMVuFhPYzq_CAefADhAGuK1NA&sig2=kgQ6AnxbqUecqxDhS-Lrjg

… I made a screenshot of the period from Jan. 2014 to Nov. 2015:


This shows how much there is almost no change at all, with just Weale and McCafferty wanting a change

(and then only one of them voting in this direction, of late)…

Hardly exciting reading, I know, but it shows just how unilaterally reluctant the BoE’s MOPC members

have been for nearly two years in changing their mind…

I am already banking on tomorrow being a non-event… All sights to the Fed meeting next week…

Peace.

Hi Pipmehappy.
I’m not expecting a change, just hoping it stays at 8:1 and doesn’t drift out to 9:0.
Also, as I have a UK mortgage, I’m not over keen on a rate rise.
Rock on

Very true Pipmehapppy but I don’t see anything in the last months figures that will create anything positive today for the pound at the decision. Having said that it will probably soar to great heights :slight_smile:

[B]Nzd on the up?[/B]

ANZ Bank says the New Zealand dollar’s post-rate-cut rally looks set to continue as the currency now has “the breeze at its back” On Friday morning in Wellington, the kiwi is at US$0.6752 after having ranged from US$0.6720-76 in offshore trading Thursday. Local data out Friday include readings on food prices, manufacturing and consumer confidence. ANZ says signs of continued domestic improvement will be watched for; that would support the currency. ([email protected])

Well,

there certainly does not seem to be anything wrong with that…

And if the Fed does not deliver a hawkish tone of a distinct possibility of further rate hikes in 2016

on top of next week’s one, then the Kiwi could capitalise on a USD-bearish market move…

But, with thinning liquidity conditions, a lot of trend development may have to wait until January…

What do YOU think, Eddie?

I wont be opening any new trades in GbpNzd this side of Xmas, unless something really spectacular happens. It might move a bit but the low volume will mean wider spreads.
Ive still got a GbpAud trade under this system, so will let that run until it hits TP or SL.
Saving my pennies for Christmas :slight_smile:

[B]Do the experts know what they’re talking about?[/B]

The article below discusses a current long term bull trend, whilst drawing our attention to very short term resistance. This isn’t how I see the charts. Looking at the weekly charts, the long term bull trend ended at the end of July/early August and price has been falling since. I accept prices rose last week, up ftom a 6 month low, but only to a lower high than before and it has already dropped from that level. Perhaps the author has a different opinion of what is “current” than I do, either that or I have missed something. What do you guys think?

I agree with you. The author is ignoring the Lower High at the end of October and the Lower Low at the end of November on the weekly chart. To me it looks like it may be a change in trend.

He talks about “a bullish breakthrough” at 2.1215. But that is considerably lower than the previous Lower High at 2.1700. I do not see a resumption of the bullish trend until it breaks well past this level at least.


“Bullish breakthrough” not appeared yet, price currently testing 2.08. If it breaks below this, 2.07 could be hit very soon and 2.04 is a possibility.
However, a bounce up from 2.08 could signal a continuation of the upward trend albeit at a slower pace than before

2.07 under pressure

It has tested 2.07 several times this month but managed to bounce back. But you are right. If it does break below, it could run all the way to 2.04.

Do you have a position open on this pair?


If it recovers past 2.09 (another resistance level) I would go long

I think that 2.09 may not be a good level to go long. In the past 17 days, the pair has broken above 2.09 seven times but failed to close above. Two times it closed above 2.09 but the following day closed below that level.

If price reaches 2.09, I may be looking to go short to catch a resumption of the down trend since September.


Its also had 4 goes at the 2.07 support. The way it looks, my money would be on a further drop before any recovery

Gotta bookmark this thread! Lot of good information on here. Hope to get through this by the end of week 2 of 2016.

Good luck, and post your thoughts too!