Bobmaninc's quest to short the Aussie into extinction

Trading Discussion Currencies
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Ideally I didn’t want to enter the trade at the prices listed. I probably should have waited for a better set up, but I’m working on a strategy that gets in at the end of the week expecting the trade to close at the end of the next week (if not sooner because the goal is to hit take profit).
I have done a lot of reading and have gotten some great ideas from this book called “The little book about trading currencies.” Basically I think I’m more of a short term trader but I would like to get a better understanding of how to long term trade so that I can have a more balanced account. The problem is I need two accounts because I like to trade the same currencies long and short term. I too was also surprised when the AUD/USD hit parity as quickly as it did. I am going to back test the rest of last week with my current up to date short term strategy as well as continue to forward test it on my practice account. If I’m still satisfied with the back testing results (just going to test the rest of last week) would you like to hear it?

I would love to have someone else test it too to see that they come to the same results. You really only need to test one day to see why I like it so much, which will hopefully get you excited enough to back test it on any other random day it is designed to trade on (it’s only a Monday through thursday kinda strategy, no Fridays or Sunday’s). Are you willing to trade 4 currencies though (it works great with the AUD/USD)? It works fine with just one currency, and it works on any currency to my knowledge thus far, I just see exponential potential when trading 4 currencies. So far it reduces the overall amount of losses thus greatly increasing overall winning percentages faster when trading more than one currency simultaneously following the same plan. But its safe because your taking less risk by limiting your time in Market. Anyhow, let me know if your up for what I hope to be the dream short term strategy. I’m not going to talk it up anymore, but it wouldn’t it be great to make your desired profit during the peak two hours of the day and be able relax the rest of the day unaffected by the market after your done trading because your no longer in it? Am I right?

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IF you think you got something then by all means bring it I dont mind. I probably will not use it as what I do works for me and I learned a long time ago dont fix whats not broke. But like I said before everything I know came from babypips. Some of it came from strategies that I dont see any way to make money from it. Just that one piece worked for me. So I am always looking to sharpen my skills or let you know the flaws I see in it. This site is all about helping people that truly want to learn and at no cost to them. Its not about hey follow me I will make you a millionaire or I would have a million bucks to show everyone.

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Ok well now I will talk about intermediate term bias which will start to touch on entry for now I will stick to my short bias. As thats when I started back trading this year.

Here is a daily chart

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So based off the last concept I showed you the weekly its the same concept. Here we have a S/R level. Where price consolidated (top green line). Again we have some significant highs there and price broke those highs. This changes my bias to short. I would like to have seen price break it a little more than that but thats not for me to decide. Now you can see on the top red circle where the consolidation happen. We have a pin bar setup at the top of the range (remember I said when price is in consolidation play the range and wait for a breakout). We got the 50% retrace of the pinbars wick. I am pretty sure that trade I did take and it is in Nikitas thread. So I wont go to deep into it. But I will say if when price was at the 50% level if you drop to the 15 minute you will find the same exact setup on the 15 minute which is why I took that trade. If you want to see it just scroll back on her thread to that point in time. Now there is another thing I have noticed after learning ICT concept of OTE. If you look at daily pin bar setup like this and enter at the 50% level of the pinbars wick. I notice it lines you up with OTE of the previous days high and low almost eveytime. Just something I seen.

Now I will mention how I look to enter based on my bias. When in a bear market life is great. Look of couse for pinbar setups on an s/r level. Also to know when to look for you setups that where OTE come in 68-79% fib levels, pivots, and traders trinity mainly. I do use price correlation with the NU and USDX but they follow so closely its hard to find SMT divergance. Once in the trade I look to cash out 50% once my trade is at 1:1 R:R. Another 25% at the bottom of the previous swing and let the rest run till stopped out.

In a bull market I use the same concepts except I look to enter at the 128% fib of the previous swing instead of OTE. Reason is like I said before if price is making higher highs why would you enter at OTE. You will be stopped. However reguardless of bias if I get stopped entering at OTE I will look to reenter at the 128 level. I will try to get shot of what I am talking about soon I have nothing to show yet. Bare with me guys like I said takes patience to let the trade setup for you instead of chase after the setup.

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Sweet. Where do you want me to post this?

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You can post here. So that I can too back test the strategy… :smiley:

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Where is up to you.

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Total time daily spent to trade: 2 hours
Timeframe: 800 a.m e.s.t - 10 am e.s.t
5 minute chart is used for placing trades.
Candle colors : green = long, red = short

The first trading opportunity of the day is entered at precisely 8:05 a.m if the 2 pip rule is met.

Basically your first trade will never be placed before 8:05 am, rather, exactly 8:05 to be precise. but you are using the 8:00 candlestick to determine which direction to call the currency until you exit the trade at 8:25 a.m precisely. 10 a.m. Is the last time you can place a trade per day.

EUR/USD example:

If the 8:00 a.m candle is green and has a minimum two pips in difference in the opening and closing price you call the EUR/USD going up at precisely 8:05 a.m.

If the 8:00 a.m candle is red and at least two pips in length, then we would call the currency down.

Wait a full twenty minutes (this part is crucial)

Then close the full position.

Then you must wait to place your second trade until another full twenty minutes has passed since closing your first trade. Always wait a full twenty minutes after exiting a trade before entering a new trade (that’s a rule).

Enter the second trade at precisely 8:45 a.m using the 8:40 a.m candlestick to call the direction. Remember it has to be at least 2 pips in length to confirm that green means buy and red means to sell, if not do not enter the trade… Wait another 20 minutes and check to see if you can enter then.

Follow the same procedure mentioned in the first trade in every trade until the end of the defined trading session mentioned up at the top of this post. 10:00 a.m is the last possible trade you can enter.

So If each time you look to enter the trade and the requirements are met, you can make up to four trades per day. But you are required to trade from 8 a.m until 10 a.m so that you are more likely to win more than you lose on a day to day basis. After 10 a.m by following this short term strategy, you will be done trading for the day!

Only trade Monday through Thursday’s as these are the best days to trade.

Check it out (back test any monday through Thursday) the get back with me.

Once again I will post pics later today of a few sample days.

I will provide pics when i get home with more examples.

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Well I must warn you markets to not care about time. However the 8am (assuming est) trade could work as thats when NY opens and typically will move the market in one direction or the other for a little while so you could get away with that. I also can not test it as I am at work during those times and can not trade.

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Hmm. I need to program a bot. Well if your curious… I would advise paper trading it just to see what kind of results it gets.

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So can I post Aussie buys? I mean if your going to short it into non-existence don’t I have to buy it up and put the ball on the tee for you?

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Buys are always welcome. This week would be the time to buy

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Hope someone was able to catch some of the moves on the Aussie today there was some nice pin bar setups that went for nice pips on the 15 minute today

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Bob, check this out man, the Yearly Traders Trinity! (seen you wondering in some earlier post if there is higher TF trinity, so here it is)

…hm… see any significance? :wink:

I showed this to few people, but there wasnt much of a interest, so I kept it for myself.
Unfortunately you will have to plot the lines yourself, bit of a pain but once there, just save it as a template and voilà!

:41:

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I was thinking that too for this week, but dollar strength across the board it looks like.

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Agreed looking at the Aussie I can see it want to go up but the dollar is just beating everything out. I would not call it dollar strength just less weak atm. I have seen the dollar do some pretty amazing things but this is crazy justified but crazy

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I guess I called it right this week lol. Who cares what fb is doing, I swear the us is trying to make bad data because they want the dollar to be worthless. Haha, the f*****'s can’t stop it from rising no matter
What data comes out. It’s only uphill for the dollar from here. The euro and the Aussie both broke psychological supports. Calling the euro or the Aussie up right now would be like setting fire to your own house.

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Why I always say trade what you see and not what someone tells you. I know you didnt come to that off technical analysis but you still seen an opportunity and I hope you capitalized on it. In fact the last few calls I have made only 1 has played out (the .9800 level being rejected on the first attempt). Thats why I try not to speculate on what I think markets will do instead trade what is on the charts. Right now it has taken some real discipline to sit on my hands as these moves just keep going down. But according to how I trade I have not had a clear entry and I dont chase trades. Entries have been there but when I could not trade. Thats the only issue with being a part time trader. I have a small window to catch an entry. I think I have watched the last 100+ pips tick by. Next true support is .9600. I also think this thread is effecting me a little as I want to show how I enter the market starting with the most basic concept and moving forward from there. Well the market are not giving me that right now. Sure I can show it based off the left side of my chart but I do not want to. I want to show it unfold on the right side, the great black unknown. That way I am just not picking a spot that worked and saying this is what could happen. Like I have said many times before I can make anything look good on the left side of my chart but its the right side that counts. Also by doing the right side I can show real time trade management and everything. That to me I think will have more benefit than any thing else I can do I think. But I seem to be waiting for that most basic ideal entry and missing possible trades. Not that it matters though guess I am starting with my first requirement patience and discipline. Sorry if this thread seems to have come to a halt. It has not its just waiting so I am not all over the place trying to teach people. Like I said I am no teacher or in your case I am no signal service (bet you glad you didnt listen to me lol). Instead I am a trader. I am not looking for money besides my profits from trading. I have no demo this is all real time all real cash. If any doubt that check out nikitas thread I just opened a trade and closed it for a loss to show something someone asked for. That looks like my big trade this week lol.

Leg0nd please dont think this rant was directed at you because it is not. Its just me bored and frustrated. I may be a patient and disciplined trader but I am still human. I only short the Aussie and to see it take a nose dive off a cliff after waiting so long for this moment shorting bull markets. It turn bearish and I cant get in you have to see the irony in that lol. Its all good though I do know one thing it will bounce so the way I see it the further it drops the further it must bounce. All that means the bigger the swing for me later. Pay me today pay me tomorrow either way you will pay me lol.

END OF RANT

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No worries, in my previous post I was frustrated as hell. The data didn’t line up yet the euro and Aussie still fell. I simply supply opinions. I don’t care how well thought out my trades are (I’m still a noob and am learning), some of the trades I’m calling are bound to win as others are bound to fail. I simply want to state my view of how the market is doing and what direction I think the market is set to go. If it lines up with the majority, then I might be onto something. However, I have come to conclusion opinions don’t drive the market.

It must be super frustrating to not be able to trade full time. Fortunately for the past few weeks I have been able to, but with a new job, that all comes to an end tomorrow.

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Whewww! Things are heating up in here! Must be all that excitement to cash in on the Aussie selloff, huh?

Check out my trade idea and let me know what you think:

After trading USD/CAD and NZD/USD ranges for the longest time, I’m finally giving AUD/USD a shot!

As we all know, the Aussie has been weakening against the Greenback since the start of the month thanks to weak commodities and growth concerns in the euro zone. AUD/USD is down 5.69% as of writing and even touched new 2012 lows yesterday!

I’m thinking that I can still jump in AUD/USD’s downtrend since nothing much has changed in Australia’s fundamental landscape. For one, concerns on Greece and the euro zone are likely to escalate since we’re still not seeing concrete action from the European leaders.

Then, China’s HSBC PMI signaled more contraction in the manufacturing industry at 48.7 (vs. 49.3) in May while gold prices are still near its steep lows.

Read more: Riding the AUD/USD Downtrend: First Position Triggered! | Forex Blog: Playing with ComDolls

audusd.jpg700×405 36.1 KB

On the technical side, I’m looking to jump in on the trend by entering at the .9800 level. That area not only coincides with the falling trend line, but it’s also lining up with the 38.2% and 50% Fib levels. Aside from that, stochastic is also in the oversold territory!

I’m not sure the pair will retrace all the way up to the 50% Fib, so I plan on scaling in my positions. I put 0.25% on the .9800 major psychological handle and another at .9820 in case we see comdoll strength before the U.S. session. I set my first PT at yesterday’s lows (.9700 area) and my stop loss at around .9875.

Here are the details.

Short AUD/USD at .9800 and .9820, stop loss at .9857, target at .9700.

Thoughts, anyone?

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Assuming you got in happy pip, that would have been a nice trade. As far as the heat goes, bring it! The more heated a debate gets, the sooner the cannon’s come out!

On this thread though, we are all on the same page. Any criticism is welcome. If I were to get into the Aussie now, I would short it to .96
I wouldn’t put my stop any lower than .9850