Large specs tend to be on the right side of the trend unless your trading XAU or XAG which has been cornered by the commercials imo
The Euro: Large specs are net Short and over the last few weeks getting shorter I’d want to be trading in the same direction as they are: Down. Its only of passing interest not a major factor as I take my trades off the chart but it’s nice to know the smart money is looking to short too.
XAGs an interesting chart: C would have made for a great long entry, a nice impulse leg from A-B and a classic correction to the PRZ (potential reversal zone)/ 50-80% correction area/ C, combined with a supply zone where resistance has become support(Red arrows) You would have to have got long there with a target around $18.90 where AB=CD, price has kept going though hitting the upper parallel of the green minor fork before a minor correction (pip perfect) to the upper parallel of the Major Blue fork, Where it goes from here is anyones guess its the devils metal, the widowmaker, very volatile. A correction would be healthy perhaps down to the lower parallel of the minor fork around $18.6 to $19 or to the median line of the Major Fork around $18. I’d be a buyer in those areas
Have to go up to the weekly to get a better view Major fork(purple) confining price, obviously down. Speculative fork (Blue)with possibly a couple of markers still unvalidated. Obvious Supply/Demand S/R area (Blue rectangle). Price has hit the median line of the Major Fork(purple)- wait and see mode
Target for the 2nd leg of the Gold Bull market is $2300 where AB=CD, the median line of the fork. I would like to see price correct to the lower parallel, at some stage, before making a new high above $1370(or whatever the high of this move is) if this occurs the probability of price hitting the median line is 80%
and in Silver its $55
US Dollar is in a bull market here’s the overall view
Back in 2012 we had 3 impulse legs of around 650 pips each:
Back to todays chart and we just had an impulse leg of 650 pips (AB) followed by a retracement to C.
I expect the next leg to hit D where AB=CD to be around 650 pips taking us to the median line of the major fork. Obviously if the Dollar is about to rally this will affect all other Dollar FX crosses. The large specs are net long and over the last few weeks have been increasing those positions.
I don’t usually trade Daily Charts I trade the Dow on a 5 min but I use exactly the same methodology. I took this trade earlier (first trade of the week) on the 5 usually I would target the 1.217 ext of the last leg up on the 5(about 6 pips away now) but because I think this may be ‘New All Time High’ Day for the Dow I’m going to hold it. Target is the sliding parallel from the recent highs around 18.430 a new all time high+80 pips Stops at entry.
The 5:
May as well stick with this trade here There’s not much on the Dailys. Normally I would have closed this at D where AB=CD for 40 pips. If we get a retracement to the 50-80% area of CD and a rotation candle I might add to this position with stops at BE. Hoping it doesn’t retrace the full 100%
Now we have a fresh high I can make adjustments here and start trailing my stop manually (30 pips locked in) because you never know…
After hitting D price is beginning to retrace I’d expect a shallow retracement and new highs per the red arrows
Impulse legs on the Dow seem to be coming in at around 25 pips per leg AB=CD etc for the up move to continue price ought not drop below C (red dotted line) There is an 80% probability that it will stay above that level. I have now placed my stop below A (the 100% retracement of the last leg). I will continue to trail the move while giving the trade as much room as the price action allows.
Gonna get stopped out, for about 35 pips Really expected more from the Dow we had a monster rally in the Yen earlier and the two are highly correlated. Cleaned the chart up.
Price has stalled in its retracement at the median line of that wicked fork(purple) is it gonna bounce here and bust out of the green fork aiming for the upper parallel of the purple? I wonder what a 1 hour chart looks like? Thats a beautiful chart the symmetry is amazing how AB=CD at the upper parallel of the green fork is pretty cool.
I think if gold is going to turn up its going to be around here, at the median line of the fork. if it gets much lower will start to look bearish
[QUOTE=“BillyRayVal;777047”]I think if gold is going to turn up its going to be around here, at the median line of the fork. if it gets much lower will start to look bearish <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE]
Agreed and i think set and forget it as bullish trend continues
Stopped for +30 probably done for the day looks like retracement underway on the 1 hour probably to the median line
Perhaps but I wouldn’t be a buyer here I’d want to see a higher high and buy on a possible HL shortly after I want to see a bit of proof the target is £50 away plenty of time to try and hop on the train