Lol, only joking, of course I really remember it’s name :)…it’s not the yellow lines that has made me
inquisitive, it’s something else:
See that long bar at the bottom…
The sad truth is I don’t know what that pattern means. Some serious brainstorming is going on in my head right now. Not to mention that its still very early in the morning. I think I got a clue from your next post. Call it cheating. Sellers are being squeezed there ? Buyers coming in with pending buy orders. Hence the large volume down at the bottom on GLDX etf chart ? So therefore gold should rise sometime soon. But what we don’t know just yet, is if its just a correction or a reversal.
Ok. I agree. That should do for now. I’ll take the apple & chips at any day!
Mike!
If you have seen Peter’s post on EURUSD, I specially liked how he used USDX to the gauge the euro strength. And I’m thinking EURUSD acts like a benchmark indicator for other euro pairs. Correct me if i’m wrong guys. It’s just an assumption. And I remember you were talking of how AUDUSD acted like a benchmark index ok I made that up for other commdolls.
I would like you to examine a bit more on the subject if you’ve got time of course. I have been executing my AUD trades based off of this theory lately. And its been going quite well actually. So I wanted to do some further study on the subject.
Hey guys.
Wednesday results.
NZD: +7 -0 0///+5 -0 0
CAD: +4 -1 2///+4 -0 1
USD: +4 -2 1///+0 -2 1
AUD: +3 -1 3///+3 -0 2
JPY : +3 -2 2///+0 -1 2
CHF: +2 -5 0///+0 -3 0
EUR: +1 -6 0///+0 -3 0
GBP: +0 -7 0///+0 -3 0
Comms took this one. +12
Well that’s 2 days in a row for the Comms. Domination.
This is what I find interesting. The NZD is so strong! This entire week so far they have not had a down day against anyone. Also, as I just looked at the AUD, they have not had a down day against anyone these first 3 days…except one…to the NZD. That happened today.
So, as it always goes, they are doomed to have some down days before the end of the week. (down days means the daily candle against each other currency)
Oh, and hey Doc! The AUD/USD was my theory of the Comms/Majors. It does match. You can look at the daily candle of that pair and tell who was on top that day. This week so far belongs to the Comms. But, beware of the rest of the week. Things just don’t get tilted too much. Remember…back and forth…back and forth. I do find that in todays market, the Comms do throw their weight around. The players like them.
Mike
Hey Mike!
I have been fascinated by the flow of things as well. And I’m still waiting on your project. Remember ? I don’t think anyone has ever studied the flow of things in currency trading. Or at least I haven’t came across such studies. And yet it can be such a powerful tool. Forget about the indicators.
How AUD leads the other com dolls , how everyone’s got their up and down days almost equally. And how major turning points do occur mostly during London and NY session and Asian traders carry on what’s has happened during these sessions.
I have been riding down EURAUD all week long. Taking profit , adding more. And it seems like I’ve gotten the most out of this pair. It’s about time to hit a major support. And according to your theory everyone’s got their victory days so I’ve closed my remaining EURAUD shorts and done for the week. Well I’ll leave euro alone for now. And will fish for potential opportunities for next week.
Hey guys… FE and Peter?
I think I’ve just spotted the ‘V’ pattern on US Russell’s 2000.
Tell me more about this? ddc4d
Hi Rookie,
The V reflects what Williams refers to as the talking heads and their influence on retail investors.
Yesterday morning the BBC had a headline about the Banks pulling the FTSE lower. “FTSE down on Bank Fears” or something like that.
When the FTSE opened of course it went lower - but see how it finished up.
Williams argues that the low of the day to the high is not a measure of the pro action in such a market, he argues to look at the value of the open to the close for the pro sentiment.
The bank story, from the pro perspective, is first very old news, and second of very little consequence to stock values. Retail news made a very big story, encouraged by the regulators (makes them look effective) out of the entire episode, thus retail investors got spooked and in come the sell orders at the open.
Obviously this needs a name and an indicator, so Williams called it ProGo - I just call it a V.
FTSE will open higher today simply because it’s futures have been tracking the Nikkei, I’m not aware of any special news overnight, except some on Ukraine, so maybe no V, however if I see price decline in the morning I will wait.
Hey Doc!
Well, I can’t really diagnose this. I’ve given up. Maybe you can. But still am tallying these figures. This is what I got so far. I’ll have to explain.
In each column you have how they placed, for that week. From the top down is how they came in at, for the week. The numbers in each column mean what they are ranked.
So what you have is how they all placed with what their ranking is. And I was trying to see the difference between the strong and the weak (their ranking) and the particular currency (who they are). The questions would be: If they are ranked high do they stay on top for any length of time (trend)? Is there a difference of who they are, to be on top? Does it matter what their ranking is to be on top? Also their rankings change differently than where they placed.
Oh, and the bottom part means this. I split the whole line-up into 2 sections, the top 4 and bottom 4 (1-4, 5-8). So I asked the question "does the top ranking 4 place in the top 4? and does the bottom ranking 4 place in the bottom 4?
Well, if you have any questions, I’ll answer them.
Mike
Ok, FE was suggesting some live stuff, well there has been no V as suggested. Also on Eur/Usd, some guys are shorting around now (at 2464), however I am not doing so, there is no divergence hr1 - so no signal to short.
I’ll see if I spot anything interesting. There must be something. I’m off now Mike!
I’ll see you guys in the morning 
Hi guys,
I thought I share you the start of the three commodities (wheat, cotton and soybean) which I traded based on COT extremes. After 3 days I cannot complain. The prices where I bought was low and limited my risk. Asset allocation is definitely good as it really diversifies my portfolio. This is the first time I see this on my account as this is the first time when I have currencies, agriculture and metals trading at the same time. Interesting journey.
Back to the three commodities. wheat just skyrocketed (I added to my original position after the breakout), soybean is like a stone without movement and cotton is in negative territory (a lot less though than what wheat brings).
There is a lot to improve though. I entered at the worst possible time again. Now I do not talk about technicals. Rookie sent a couple of hours after my entry to me the fresh monthly, just published document about forecasts and prices on agricultural products. Of course I had the sense to open my trades exactly the same day as the report came out and of course the report did not do any good to me. Is it a complain? No, this is my style of learning (learning by doing) and I basically have to pay the price for it. The reaction was interesting though: wheat did not react negative, soybean went down but came back within a day, cotton turned down and does not show any sings of coming back. As I plan here long term trades and want to ride my winners and entered on COT extremes, my SL is not wide. Within an hour I will be thrown out from my cotton trade.
One important thing not to forget: when I talk about losses or wins, do not forget what I discussed with Philip once: in the commodity markets pip values are larger. Therefor a “skyrocket” or “falling like a stone” expression have a totally different meaning than it has by currencies. Many commodities are trending but move very slowly so that is why the larger pip value is needed. Larger pip value = larger risk.
So guys, just wanted to give a quick update in the new journey of agriculturals,
FE
You are not alone, I’m getting a heavy beating with my Gasoline long. I guess I’ll be out in a few mins 
Hi Mike,
well I see a trend. In the rare case someone is 1. and 2. place 4 days in a row then the 5. day is down. That might be something. BTW looking at your chart it seems like someone makes steps with excel! 
Hi Rookie,
in post 2026 you wrote you traded EUR/AUD the whole week taking profits and jumping back again. Why would you do that? Then you just pay way too much spread and might miss some good moves out. However it was good for you to close EUR/AUD today early. I am giving some money back.
Good night eveyone,
FE
Hi BB,
before I am off, I wanted to say thanks for the optimizing tutorial. I put it in the table of contents. You helped me with Step 1 and Step 5 so it was worth the time! I downloaded all 4 years of data separately and I also did not choose the colums only but copied them one by one, year by year. That will definitely make it faster.
The last problem which remains is the excel tables. That is a lot of time to refresh every single table for every commodity every week but there is no solution as we already discussed.
So thanks and I am looking forward to try it on the weekend.
And do not worry for Gasoline, you will get back hopefully in a better price.
FE
Hey guys.
Thursday results.
EUR: +6 -0 1///+3 -0 0
CHF: +6 -0 1///+3 -0 0
NZD: +4 -2 1///+2 -2 1
USD: +3 -2 2///+1 -0 2
AUD: +3 -3 1///+2 -2 1
JPY : +2 -5 0///+1 -2 0
GBP: +1 -6 0///+1 -2 0
CAD: +0 -7 0///+0 -5 0
Majors took this one. +5
0120 GMT
Mike
Okay, I’ve been trying to construct a sensible strategy around COT reports for days now. Today is no different, but I’m making progress. Will check in tomorrow.
Precisely FE.
I have been on with EURAUD all week long. No other trades. Remember how I was determined to sit through - 200 pips. It worked out well. Because I was on it - no other distraction and I noticed on 1h chart 200SMA was being tested several times. I gained around 30pips only to see it diminish whilst testing 200SMA so the next day I took profit on that level and not to my surprise the pair retested that level bounced off 30-40pips and proceeded to go down through the london session.
So I would like to say, I have managed to ride this pair up and down. Trying to bag in as much as I can. However, you still leave pips on the table and its impossible not to. Like you said it was good that I closed off my trade on thursday because I knew euro was going to rise up from the grave after all we’ve had major support coming close as well.
Hey Mike,
I see that in the example you’ve got 20 weeks of data which derived from daily charts if I’m not mistaken. One thing thats very obvious is the weakness of EUR and CHF. While everyone gets to enjoy the top place at least once a week EUR and CHF have failed , barely climbed up to the middle before dropping down at the bottom.
Its interesting to see yen stealing the top place not once but couple of times. Even for a risk off thing. On dailys it looks major - I mean yens dominance on top. Do we have weekly and monthly ranks as well ? Along with daily I think they would tell a lot more. I like your stats better on excel btw keep it going
[B]Update:[/B]
And the questions you asked are valid. I’ll do some brainstorming and see if I can come up with useful input and will get back to you. I think it would be great also to incorporate sessions in your sheet, say how eur , chf and gbp generally perform during their session and so on to see if there’s any pattern there must be something. I sure have noticed some pattern with the aussie and the kiwi during asian session. But I don’t have weeks of data like you to prove my observation. What do you think ?
I know that you do screenshots and but I want to see what we’ll get if we put that all into excel sheet.