Comms had +517 pips up on the Majors this week.
I guess we can say that CAD has dominated this week.
You know, it’s funny about CAD. Because they are a Commodity currency, but they also tail very closely with the USD. I have seen it too many times that when the USD is dominating, CAD gets the pips along with them. It’s like they are playing on both sides of the fence. We all know that this is the era of the USD. But when they falter a bit, the other side gets the benefits, where CAD is at. I’m sure there are fundamental reasons also.
It’s just interesting.
Anyone remember last year how the CAD lost their butts? They were most beat up upon currency. The most taking advantaged of.
And also I remember someone on here in baby pips (big dog…forget who) said to me, this was in the early summer time, they were just over valued and we must watch them come on back down. Like it was a temporary thing for them. I was stating how they are a player this year compared to last year. But this someone thought otherwise. Oil has a lot to do with it. And other factors. But, in any case, they are a player now. Maybe we just have a couple other losers that have taken their place on the wrong side of the trades.
I have updated my database and have nothing to report on Metals. However, both Wheat and Corn are setup markets for a sell. The trend is currently down, while the COT Index (6 months) flashing a Commercial bearish extreme.
When trading the 6 months signal, you want to take trades which are in harmony with the dominant trend. As you can see, Wheat is the example of the [I]1 Minute Commodity Trader[/I] in action. Trend is down while the COT Index (6 months) showing us a bearish extreme. That’s all is to it. We are ready to sell. ProGo divergence is only a plus. The Index of 6 months will give us more frequent signals as it’s look-back period is significantly reduced compared to the traditional COT Index’s (3 years).
[B]FE[/B]
I don’t think that there’s anything wrong with the original look-back periods. Of course, it would be nice to fine-tune them for each individual market, but that takes a tremendous amount of time. Oh, and I don’t see any signal in Soybeans (O_O)
can you please look at my EUR COT saying and also what Rookie wrote? We both think EURUSD can slip 400-500 pips but that is it. It is interesting to discuss since there is absolutely no fundamental reason which promotes our thinking. However COT and technicals… With GBP it was different, fundamentals for me really confirm that GBP should fall. Please read what I write to BB about Wheat. I know you do not trade agricultural but you can tell your technical point of you and COT analysis.
[B]Mike[/B],
you are very right about CAD. I think the same way as you. Sometime acting like a commodity, sometimes acting based on the correlation with USD and how US economy is doing. It is a really interesting currency I have to say.
[B]BB[/B],
I like the analysis in post 2142 however it is hard to comment on it. There is nothing on the chart what says what we exactly see. Of course I can click through my charts and see it is Wheat and not Corn. It is also the first time when I am not on the same opinion as you with your observations so I am very excited to see how wheat turns out. I really do not know what is this COT sell signal. We just discussed with Rookie that sell signal does not matter when the SMA is having higher highs. So the trade is actually in contradiction. You are going against the late up trend with a sell. Of course I do not know what happens but it is in contradiction. Looking at the 1 minute commodity trader setup your trade is valid as SMA moves down and COT index has to have a sell signal. However, we just experienced a market bottom with net positions and this was a turning point for the market, meaning we are looking at buy signals. As the SMA is slow, it is still moving down and cannot give us a buy signal just yet. Still, we do not trade against the commercials and they say the market is going up. The ProGo divergence is though good, that really shows a sell signal. Looking at the low price of wheat, the charts on daily and weekly I do not see anything why to sell it. I found one more interesting thing. As far as I see wheat moves a lot faster between net position extremes as most of the other markets. If it is continuous then we will have here relatively often a signal. So based on net positions in a couple of weeks I can imagine a sell signal but until then there is nothing I see.
Ok I read now what you wrote to Rookie. I think you have not seen that the problem there is solved already with the 1 minute commodity trader question. I see here our main discussion is about the trend. You look at the main trend which is down, also in the 1 minute commodity trader. I look at it as the market had bottomed so the trend is up, only the SMA did not have time yet to change the direction. This explains quite a lot on our different view of the price action. Interesting to observe!
On Soybean. Here is also hard to say something new as I think it is completely the same situation as it was with wheat. I see it as an uptrend as we have seen a market bottom and there is a retracement for a better entry. You are looking at a downtrend as the SMA moves down. Altogether these are the discussions which helps us to become a better trader so I am excited to see how this all turns out. Also important that I did not say there is a signal currently. I wrote there will be a signal. Price action seems like to confirm it. In the last three days Soybean is up and this is not yet in the COT report. So most likely both COT Index and Willco will move further up and give us a buy signal soon.
[B]Rookie[/B],
I could not send you PM as your storage is full. Please delete some.
Ok guys,
I wish you all a nice evening and Sunday I am also happy about the interesting COT discussions. Rookie and BB are both active and raise nice questions for open discussions. Now it is time that our “All-arounder Coach” (Peter) steps up and tells some thoughts to us,
I clicked through every single article for net positions on timingcharts.com and found some interesting facts also about your products. Can you please check the following in your database and give me answer?
Silver: is the low behind us and we should look for long scale in opportunities?
Copper: it seems like we are at an extreme net positions and prices just do not want to fall further on. Should we look for buy opportunities at the 3.00 level? (earlier we wanted 2.90 as an entry)
Cotton: should we look for buy opportunities? (this is not your product, I think I can take it or maybe Rookie but as it belongs to no one I thought I ask your opinion on it)
Lumber and Orange Juice (Dustan’s favorite) both look interesting but as I cannot trade them I am also not so interested. I just thought if someone can trade those two then might have a look.
It is hard to (if not impossible) to say whether we are witnessing a bottom or not. All I know is that the trend is down and price rallied a little. Same goes for Soybeans.
Silver: As the COT Index suggested earlier, a price rally was expected, which obviously happened. I did not take action as I saw no ideal entry point. Since the trend is down, I would not want to play against it so I’ll just wait for a 6 months bearish extreme to go short.
Copper: Your guess is good as mine. I’m kinda bullish on the pair because it just refuse to make lower lows and Commercials are still bullish. The Weekly trend is still down though. The problem with Copper is that it has high volatility so price swings are pretty huge which is a stop killer environment.
Cotton: I have it in my database and actually went long on a demo account. The trend is not exactly obvious, I’d say it is still sideways.
We are looking at Silver’s report with 2 charts attached. The upper one is derived from the Disaggregated report, while the other is the traditional. There’s something odd going on here, don’t you think?
At the moment, I am confused. I’ll look into the matter deeper, just wanted to give you guys something to ponder on
that is a very nice thinking on the issue. I never investigated it though, Peter might did. I do not know if the difference is very important. Maybe one is just more detailed and we do not have to understand every little reason there. Still, Peter might say something more valuable on it.
Swap dealers in FX could be construed as ‘commercials’ in the sense that they are commercial enterprises in the business of Foreign Exchange, usually banks, often acting for their customer who is themselves a commercial enterprise whose main business activity may not by the exchange of currencies, they could be selling computers or cars.
Dodd Frank is making these guys register and report, who they are to date is here:
That reminds me of something
So swap dealers are banks - processing foreign exchange deals on the behalf of their corporate customers. Their transactions might have a bigger influence on ‘short term price’ than on long term. What do guys think.
I would like to do this week an S&P 500 analysis and adding it to my database. There are two S&P 500 reports in the COT so I rather ask which is the right one so I do not have to work twice. I have the following options:
S&P 500 Consolidated - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-13874+
and
S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-138741
Thanks,
FE
PS: Rookie, I think Peter has to answer your question.
Thanks guys for the fast answer! From BBs I understood the difference and Peter’s example helped to choose what I want to do. I have to say it is not a clear cut do which one to analyse. What about you, BB? Which one do you do? I will go with the consolidated, because I read the example from Peter’s link and it makes more sense to me even if I do not trade the MINI S&P 500, but I think the consolidated report might give me a better overall view how is S&P doing.
So just an update on oil…Stock markets in the gulf has been declining somewhat this week, not to mention in October as well. There are some worries of the long term impact of low oil prices on the economy.
More importantly, there is an OPEC meeting Thursday to discuss the latest decline in prices. Let’s keep an eye.
