Well I know the volume spread analysis would tell you that the last two candles are the first sign of a possible buy by the big money. You should try to ask them I suppose.
Hey guys.
Tuesday’s results.
JPY : +7 -0 0///+3 -0 0
NZD: +4 -1 2///+2 -1 2
CHF: +3 -1 3///+2 -0 1
GBP: +3 -1 3///+2 -0 1
EUR: +3 -2 2///+2 -1 0
CAD: +1 -5 1///+1 -4 0
AUD: +0 -5 2///+0 -4 1
USD: +0 -6 1///+0 -2 1
Majors took it…again. +6
Wow. I tell ya…this is a repeat of last week. Monday and Tuesday the JPY took both days.
0120 GMT
Mike
Hi Team,
as I said earlier we talk about setups but now how it went. Yesterday Peter made some nice profits with trading S&P, I have seen the setup a bit late. Still, it is good to look back how it turned out. The first two circles on the chart show the upward movement in price and S&P. It shows Peter took the best possible long setup yesterday. On the other side it was risky because it was against the main trend. So now look at the second two yellow circles. It looks pretty similar like it was yesterday. W/S is heading up, but there is the 50 SMA that was resistance yesterday and the trend is down. Instead of going long, maybe it worth to wait and see if the resistance works as good as yesterday.
Peter can maybe tell if the falling S&P has something to do that the FOMC meeting and Yellen is expected to leave the “considerable time” expression which is bad for stocks. I don’t know if my thinking is right, it just came into my mind.
Thoughts?
FE
PS: thanks Philip for the comment
Hi FE, Yes, I’ve no intention of trading pre fomc, maybe only a scalp on FTSE this morning at most.
BTW some of the guys were saying about correlation on all major indexes - reality is in the UK morning the FTSE / Dax is dominant, S&P futures tracking, then as US open nears it’s over to USA, and FTSE follows, so if I’m trading FTSE then always in morning, otherwise it’s simpler just to follow the S&P.
Yesterday was against trend and also markets are very choppy (nervous) so important to exit and re-enter like I did, most important of all is the 16.00 gmt time for going flat (or if feeling brave, which I’m not, then being a spinner and taking the opposite direction).
Many times by going flat I leave points on the table, but when in a choppy mrket
then many times I keep the profits.
Will have a look at those oil numbers in a couple of hours.
FE,
Yeah, there is nervousness re interest rates, maybe the fed wants them off the floor, but stock traders are not so sure that it is such a good idea, anyways all eyes on the statement wording.
About Oil, well spotted, the volume across the board is very interesting, if you have a look at $XOI first to see what was happening yesterday on the commercials’ shares the jump in the daily range is of interest.
Then check the largest 2 etf’s USO and UCO for their volume and then lastly the etn that you have shown.
I’m not into bottom picking, but I am into bottom heads upping, so if I was considering entering short on oil what you have noted would cause me to hesitate.
I find it helpful to me when I call the stockchart to look at volume by choosing “volume - separate” rather than “overlay”, (it defaults to overlay) makes it easier for me to compare.
Hi Peter,
hmmm good post on oil. Slowly we are talking about business here! You made the post in the morning and oil gained $4 today!!! Wow the big boys are still reading the thread! I will just call you “Bottompicker” :-).
I was checking the whole time S&P if history repeats itself. You bet! It happened exactly what yesterday was out there. It is just happening now so I post it in a time when we do not know the outcome. Still it is interesting how S&P gave a buy signal again but against the trend. So, like yesterday, it bursted through the 50 SMA and 1H later it changed the direction to be inline with the trend. It happened also the day before yesterday. I also mark it on the chart. If you read my morning post, it is especially interesting to see happening it again.
I post this “live” because I am interested to see if it goes down to the 1970.00 level again or it will fail to make those lows again.
It is good that Williams invented W/S. And it is also good that you showed us how to use.
BTW Natural Gas bounced back from the main support zone. I opened the trade after market open and my SL is under the main support zone.
FE
Hi FE,
The thing about volume often gets extremely complicated. I’ve read many thoughts on volume over the years even from the master of volume, Richard Wyckoff.
I have found that volume is in the first instance a great ‘heads up’ on something up ahead. I look at the ETF volumes, then the price action of the Index of the companies involved and then price of the asset.
Then I just use common sense, no fancy algos or ratios, if asset price remained unchanged and we had sudden high volume and index value say going up then I say to the other part of my brain - hmmm investors have been sneakily buying, maybe buying 100, selling 50, buying 80, selling 20 … pushing volume up but not impacting big on price …, then they do similar next day…
Finally the market smells, price then starts to rise on their sneaky actions.
Then the key, when price rises the volume needs to be monitored, if higher than the avg then they want even more, if low then undecided, price then may fall back, if price holds then more volume needed …
Stayed out of market today, always dangerous on FOMC and also if previous day was ok.
S&P price just sitting on that yellow dotted line that was on my chart from Mon, actually interesting little point that, the S&P always has a liking for those dotted lines 
S&P 15min at present, same yellow line - interesting?
Now watch US10yr for direction, yes I took a small scalp up on S&P 30points, but I suspect a fall may now happen, lets see.
Edit that, up then down then up … stay flat:)
Hi Peter,
I guess you also watched live the FOMC Conference. So I think it was quite bullish on a rate hike. At least definitely not bearish. That would give me a conclusion of declining stocks. Now looking at S&P, and waiting a bit to settle down the chaos, charts tell me stocks were holding themselves good. Or at least S&P is recovering from the loss in the beginning. Do you find this as a bullish signal for stocks?
FE
Hi FE,
No I didn’t watch, just speed read the statement, When I last posted price was on the first candle down, then when I edited it was on the second one, but the 10yr was giving a conflicting signal at that point.
Since that price returned to the line and has since gone back up. I feel a sense of risk on now, USD/JPY feels the same, it was also giving conflicting signals, so if S&P breaks higher then I would see more bullishness on both S&P and USD/JPY
Update: price hasn’t broken to the upside yet (yesterday’s high, 2017.90), it went right to the line a turned heel, but it may have another go soon, let’s see.
Hey guys.
Wednesday’s results.
USD: +6 -0 1///+2 -0 1
CAD: +6 -0 1///+4 -0 1
GBP: +5 -2 0///+2 -1 0
AUD: +3 -3 1///+3 -2 0
NZD: +3 -3 1///+3 -2 0
EUR: +1 -5 1///+0 -3 0
CHF: +1 -5 1///+0 -3 0
JPY : +0 -7 0///+0 -3 0
Comms took it. +6
0100 GMT
Mike
I have to say I’m a little bit disappointed with the market reaction to the FOMC statement. The dollar buying in my opinion was a little underwhelming.
I have to say that there are a lot of indications that dollar buying might take a step back in the near future. First, the COT index is already (and has been for a number of months) at an extreme reading, meaning a top is near by. When you look on the weekly charts, there are divergences in EURUSD and NZDUSD, suggesting there should be a bounce against the dollar soon.
The other thing that caught my attention was the reaction in Oil; although it did lose a bit after the announcement, it still ended the day in green. To be honest my expectation was that after an announcement like this (basically the FOMC said they will up rates to 0.25% in July), I was expecting a big red candle in oil but it didn’t come. FE and Peterma noted the strange volume in oil and stock markets in the gulf had rallied on Wednesday (they open at the same time of Euro open in the forex market). It was the first rally in Gulf stock market, oil-relying economies, after four sessions that saw them make historic losses.
I have a feeling that the FOMC statement was like the last game of a sports season; We know that dollar won and were the best. We know that once the new season begin they will be the favorites to buy,but them actually performing up to traders expectations is a different matter.
A final note on oil, I have switched my long term bias (my view of oil trend) to bearish. I only take short trades in oil from now on.
Hi Philip,
I wanted to post a graph about oil and saw your nice post. Well a little correction, oil ended the day in green yesterday. Of course the difference might come that we have different time set on our graph and for this reason the candles look different.
A question: you want to turn your long term bias bearish at these very low levels? I understand your reasoning but the large part of the rally is definitely over. Oil cannot fall another $50.
So now I post the volume chart which Peter often refers to an I also believe is a good help.
FE
PS: I agree with everything you said on the USD. A weaker USD is good for oil though I am right.
Also very very very important: wo was going long on EUR/CHF? That person made a good deal! Very good risk reward ratio! Exactly happened what was expected!
Yeah, oil (WTI) closed up on the day with a higher high and higher low. Volumes remained high on the etf’s
The bigger shaker was XOI - the oil companies’ shares took a jump, the biggest 2 day jump in a long time.
Would I Buy here? - not yet, would I sell then, not yet - possible consolidation which means choppy, which means SL’s getting hit. Tight stop? - yep, tight stops on sells on Dec15 are history from yesterday.
Btw see the S&P made it up past the high, but I like momentum so will wait until nearer open.
FTSE is dragging it’s heels, but it’ll eventually join in the play, waiting…
Hi BB,
we talked about a COT signal I think on Sugar. Today it arrived to the main support level. What do you think?
FE
On Oil - if price can break yesterday’s high, maybe in NY session, then $60 is back onto the horizon.
Sorry FE I meant to say oil ended the day in green but wrote red by mistake. I corrected it now.
I do expect to see a correction targeting above 70$ but I doubt oil will get back to $100 in the next two years. On the other hand I see it reaching the 30s in the same time frame, hence the change in bias.
That is all of course assuming that the fundamental story remains unchanged in the US dollar. A slack growth in the US in 2015 will lead to a different tale.
I have a rule not to take the same position again once I burn myself. I’ll probably sit it out. Depends on the COT report mostly.