That’s the charting from “tradingview”. I love that service. Even bought a monthly subscription to that.
It is free, but if you want more options, …well, got to buck up. I will go on a monthly basis on that.
Yeah, I thought about waiting for corrections, but after yesterday and seeing the Comms going down, I just got on in with those, just about at the beginning of London session Thursday. And so far, in the green.
The USD is not showing any signs of nose diving, after the FOMC meeting.
Yeah, I think I posted that earlier that my analysis marked up $33 and $14 as the two potential turning points for Oil. The month of March should also be significant, but I don’t know in which direction will it take oil.
But to be honest I think come the end of 2015, our current biases will seem so far away.
Back the day before the ECB QE I was mentioning that XLE was leading the S&P up - I suggested that these buyers were bottom pickers so I wasn’t going in on the rise.
After QE then XLF joined in which gave things slightly more credibility. Well nothing much happened since except there was still more energy buying, maybe on the back of the weather forecast of widespread severe cold in NE USA (it just recently turned out to be not as bad as was forecast) - anyways I mentioned energy prices and there was no reason to invest in energy at present.
So when a couple of earnings, or outlook notes, were negative then those bottom pickers began to sell out - that I knew would be a momentum driver - see how the fall paused before fomc - the remaining pickers were hoping for whatever, when nothing from fomc - then sell - more momentum.
The pivot thing, you probably know the story of the floor traders and their little folded cards - the important thing for those guys was the fact that they all were looking at the same folds, likewise computers,- the only question is whether ET or GMT - often doesn’t matter, they are just a level to target for a pause or profit.
E.G todays s1 is around 1980 on Oanda, so a reasonable place for a pause in price, maybe a place to take off some risk.
Yeah, the old saying, if it’s going up then keep buying, when do you stop Sir?, “when it reaches the moon”
Lol, I’ll add my own little piece to that saying - ‘or when it stops going up’ , hmmm, just thinking maybe that’s what the old guy meant by the moon, I.e it had reached the top… hehe I am rambling
Rookie,
Crude oil is mine, there is nothing to report. Maybe we get a sell signal in 5-6 weeks.
Mike,
I like the way you presented the charts. Actually it is guite nice and good. However you know that I like perfect things and besides EUR and CHF charts it is not perfect Why is that? It is because EUR is always base currency and CHF is always quote currency so we can compare the currencies quite good. However all other 6 currencies are base and quote currencies too which is a bit missleading on the charts. The question is if you can use inverse charts. Think about it how useful it would be for a currency like NZD which is quote currency about half the time and base currency the other half so the picture they way it is now is a complete chaos. Just my thoughts.
Peter,
I am happy to read your thoughts on pivot points. It is something we have never discussed in detail so it is great you share your experience on it. Did you trade S&P or something else lately?
Philip, I do not add a comment to your post as I agree
About live trading:
Guys, I believe I also deserved now a good trade. Well XAU is falling like a dream I have to say. My only problem is that I never got a chance to scale in until this point. The trade is risk free I “just” have to see how I manage it.
Have a nice evening everyone and just once more: I am proud and happy to work together with all of you guys.
FE
PS: BB write something wise and then really everyone contributed to the thread today.
I agree, FE, with your sentiments on everyone’s input today. Totally awesome.
I guess I’m in a good mood. I am seeing the USD just take off today. And to hear from you about Gold finally going down. That must mean that the USD has been the opposite, of the money flow.
I’ve been thinking. Thanks to Doc’s comments. Well, if it’s the USD that is on the up, then why not get on in it? Up to this point, there is no other dependable currency to lean on, and count on for the up coming days. Actually all else is just a gamble.
Maybe that is what the big money is thinking also. (I’m hoping) And up to this point, it shows on the charts.
(One day after the FOMC ).
Peter…what do you have for us come Friday? Tomorrow? Month’s end play? Take profit anywhere?
Again…not that we will ever know before hand, but, what seems possible, probable?
Well, I can’t offer anything that could be considered ‘wise’. I’m managing the little spare time I have the best I can. Right now, I’m working with the Composite Index to see how signals differ from our traditional COT Index.
Now the %'s are interesting. Must think about that. The GBP made more pips on the board than the JPY. But the average % gain was more from the JPY than the GBP.
And the NZD lost pips totaled up, but the average % is a positive.
So, I guess these numbers speak more to the aggregate. As a whole, the JPY was stronger than the Pound.
Nice job Mike. Now we are talking about charting! This way it is possible to compare them and give a current strength indicator for the specific currencies. Please check the JPY chart, that looks funny.
I find two strange things that got my attention on the picture:
the NYAD line and the S&P AD line show completely different direction. Why is that? Are the S&P companies not listed in the NYSE? Are these two not correlated? At least I would not suppose they show such a divergence.
the second thing is your “army example”. Usually generals go down and soldiers say “no way Jose” and they push it further up. However now price goes up, AD down so generals say “no way little soldiers, we say down and we mean it” - at least how I interpret it. Can you explain this phenomana?
The theory behind the market breadth is summed up in the army story. A recent example was Apples q4 report, it was very rosy - investors bought the shares to the extent that the purchasing caused a rise in the S&P, this was also reflected in the tech sector. Apple was the general, the other smaller soldiers stayed in the bunker, so the rise had little ‘breadth’ and was not sustained.
The problem with breadth is that it is best viewed longer term than intraday, so one way of checking breadth intraday is to look at the current sectors using say xlf or xle etc. If only one sector is leading then likewise there is less breadth.
The breadth outlook works in both directions, so if a company comes out with poor results and consequent large selling of that stock causes a falling of the index then there is little breadth - this happened a few weeks back on the ftse, the stock was Tesco.
Stocks are now more range bound so I look to the sector map for guidance for intraday, and also small caps Russell 2000, for volume there is SPY.
I’ll try to replicate those charts above and have a look.
FE, you’ve got me, I just use SPXADP as per the image below, Notice at last night’s close how the ad did not come down like price did - that’s bullish - little soldiers staying in bunker
BTW not my notes, one of the guys in the stockcharts community.
One example intraday just happened - big push up in S&P - all from xle pretty much on it’s own.
Thanks Peter for the answer. I also look at those sectors but not as often as you do. I am waiting for your chart analysis.
So guys, here is the end of the week maybe we can discuss it a bit. I said there are two signals: short for gold and silver. I took gold. It turned back today, what a pitty. It had a huge run down and it was eliminated today. The whole week is still a red candle. However the interesting part is to look at silver. That would have been the right choice to buy. It was a lot weaker than gold and could not gain as much back.
I do not know if the sudden rise has to do with the crazy crude oil moves.
Why is that? It is because EUR is always base currency and CHF is always quote currency so we can compare the currencies quite good. However all other 6 currencies are base and quote currencies too which is a bit missleading on the charts. The question is if you can use inverse charts. Think about it how useful it would be for a currency like NZD which is quote currency about half the time and base currency the other half so the picture they way it is now is a complete chaos. Just my thoughts.
