The only other trade which I closed is EURCAD for a gain of 37 pips (the 0.03% of the 50,000 demo account). So technically I made more than 3000 pips so far in two weeks 
Of course this is after all this is a demo account. But it does tell me that my system and the discussions I have with you guys have a positive impact on my trading. I never had issues with psychology anyways so I canāt wait to start trading.
On oil, I do expect the rally to continue may be towards 70-75 at least, as the risks of deflation grow and the US opts against hiking rates. Letās be clear, SNB, Canada and Australia have lowered interest rate and it will be crazy for the US to hike rates now. Its clear the global economy is more concerned with fighting deflation.
Iām only committed to selling oil though so I wont trade that rally. Once we reach that 75 area I will look to sell all the way to $35 possibly.
This is my view on oil for 2015.
Hi guys,
there is an obvious correlation between silver and gold and we have talked about these two a million times. Still, I think I will devote a lot of time in the future to analyse which one to trade. It just drives me crazy. Their charts look similar but if you look at the strength of the little moves, there are huge differences. This looks an interesting topic to me.
FE
I agree with you there. To me, and based on technicals, Silver is the cleaner sell. Although my money management wouldnāt allow me to trade it even though I would sell it now.
See I saw āI would sell it nowā and silver falls almost $0.5 on the spot. Now thatās great analysis right there 
(broken clock is right twice a day)
Yeah, there is a healthy feel to taking on some risk today, Gold down, 10yr down, majority of sectors up in S&P, maybe some more upside yet on USD/JPY currently at 117.26, wouldnāt be surprised down to the number first though, maybe a little short of it.
I wouldnāt mind a little buying in the S&P before the close.
Update: USD/JPY tried itās best for the number but was indeed a little short of it, made itās low 15 mins later and could resist no longer - happens like that when risk is on. Got my little buying as well, the S&P will do that leading into the close if the majority of sectors are on board - it takes a lot to stop risk momentum whether on or off.
I agree with Philip here. I would play with silver and keep gold as a leading indicator. That seems to be the best option.
Hey guys.
Tuesdayās results.
CAD: +606///+.83
EUR: +676///+.75
GBP: +540///+.42
NZD: -32////+.06
CHF: -118///-.15
USD: -385///-.44
JPY : -453///-.51
AUD: -834///-.97
0105 GMT
Mike
BTWā¦Who out there thinks the JPY is finally done with the ābullyingā. I hope so.
I did good with the GBP/JPY trade. Took 153 pips and ran. Also today I went with GBP/USD, and took 124 pips also.
Okā¦I also went with the GBP/AUD one also, and lost -84 pips. So, not bad today.
Will be an interesting week.
I have my sites on a weak JPY. Will take those opportunities.
ALSOā¦I have noticed that the USD and the JPY have been in lock and step a lot lately. Very similar. Iāll have to show you some numbers, but Iām telling you, thereās something up with that.
Got to run. Talk to you guys in the am.
Mike
Good morning guys.
Well, the GBP markit services data just came out. Looking good.
I think they might start taking the lead now. Whoever is looking at the data lately should see that the USD is dipping much this year so far. And is starting to make the Pound look much better.
Iām just thinking there might be a shift happening.
Seeā¦this is what I thrive for. I want to see some shifting in the numbers. And hopefully get in on the boost going up.
Weāll see how it plays out.
Iām back in on GBP/AUD. Only. Going north.
Mike
Hi Mike,
no one knows what will happen but always keep in mind we have a better edge in the direction of the main trend and not against it. If you keep going with the trend with a good SL then you can not hurt yourself.
Most of those events you are talking about are retracements and not reversals which means that most likely the trend continues. I am not talking about this particular event but in general terms. USD can also not win on every day, taking a pause is just normal.
Good luck with GBP/AUD,
FE
Hey guys!
FE suggested me to look at CRB index along with oil.
Crude and CRB certainly has a positive correlation except for that divergence, although the fall of oil looks far later than CRBs I did check the timing of course ! on the graph it looked as if CRB acted as a lead , however to my disappointment Ive found that they did fall about the same time. But if you notice, both has found a support. Not sure if this is temporary correction or a complete reversal. I however, donāt think a complete reversal would occur just like that, I would at least expect a period of consolidation prior things turn the other way or UP in this case.
Knowing that CRB and Dollar index has a negative correlation it was no surprise that dollar index was finding resistance on monthly chart. Hmmm, are we about to head down ? Technically speaking.
Moving on, I came across this ETF for USD, well I hope Peters going to correct me if this isnāt the right one. But it did appear to be the one, I wanted to see what investors were up to as regards to Dollar. You can check the chart for yourself. Theyāre all monthly charts btw. i would suggest you guys to pay attention to the price action. After all, its a monthly chart so price action should be that much accurate no ? It definitely doesnāt want to go further below 80 and up above 100 for now, and the last candle appears to be bullish unlike Dollar index.
On CRB monthly chart, price is bouncing off of descending channel, it might shoot up all the way to the resistance, if fundamentals align with it my guess ? hmmm, dollar index finding resistance, along with USD ETF not wanting to go further beyond 100, got me thinking CRB just might climb all they up to the resistance, if then so should oil ? weāll have to see about that.
I havenāt compared gold, but it would be interesting to see, if CRB index keeps falling further down as with oil, gold might start marching to the opposite direction āupā - fear of deflation. In that case, Iām guessing thereās going to be a divergence between gold and CRB or all the other commodities. Any thoughts ? Guys ?
Hi Rookie,
I asked you to compare these things because I was sure in a high quality technical analysis. I am not disappointed at all, thanks for the great update. BTW I am still not convinced what was discussed by many of you here in the thread that gold will get stronger in deflation. Not that you guys are not right but it is against my logic so if deflation hits I just leave gold on the side. I keep in mind your findings when I enter the trades. I hope though that Crude is not climbing now as I entered a short trade today early 
SL is under BE though so no worries there.
Hi Peter,
I also have an interesting question on you. I think Philip mentioned more times now that US interest rate rise might be late because of the world slow down. This can well be and I like this way of thiking especially looking at the weak US economic reports daily. I not that confirmed about a reversal at all like Philip because I think US is still stronger than the others. However that is not the whole point for me now.
What gets my interest is what would happen with commodities if we see weaker US reports? Looking at intermarket analysis, a weak USD would make commodity prices increase. We should not forget though that not only the US economy is not that great but actually the whole world is struggling. So higher commodity prices are hard to imagine for me because there is just no demand from anywhere and for sure no one will buy in tough economical times commodities for even more expensive. So we are facing with potentially a not so strong USD and low demand of commodities. Who is likely to be the winner here? Do you have experience with such situations?
Thanks,
FE
Hi Rookie,
Sorry, I have to correct you, itās a common mistake on that ETF because of itās symbol.
There are a number of good ETFās for the US Dollar, but itās always good to view those with a higher average volume, they are the ETFās getting the attention.
The one I like is UUP on US Dollar, and in the past hour there has been buying on that with some volume (itās a bull USD ETF), so if I were scalping right now maybe Iād buy on USD say a sell Eur/Usd or Gbp/Usd
There is also a good one for Euro EUO (itās a bear fund) - currently suggesting to sell the Euro. (hr1)
BTW another often watched one is FAS or FAZ, just now indicating a sell on S&P, or USD/JPY
Hi FE,
Yes, your thinking is very valid. Obviously if we have a falling USD then that will apply upward pressure on commodities, but on the other hand there is much talk of falling demand in the big economies.
I suppose when you are in the middle of a raging trend it can be easier, but the longer a trend survives the more wary we become of the possibility of a turning point.
Maybe itās a little like a trader recently was preparing for his interview on CNBC, he got a draft of the likely questions. One was - where do you see the market at Yearend?.
This was at end of Q2.
This guy is one of these whizz traders, works for a well known prop firm, the kind of trader anyone would want to ask that very question.
He looked hard at the paper, looked to his boss and gulped. " I havenāt a clue boss " he answered.
The boss told him to not answer the question, just mention some levels that need watching is best.
LOL, in the length of time it took me to type up that post Eur/USD moved down 60 pips .
Lol Peter I was going say the same thing. I was short on EURUSD. I was second guessing the timing of ETFs.
One more thing Peter is this how you mean by the volume and the upward move ?
Hey guys.
Wednesdayās results.
GBP: +477///+2.3
JPY : +470///+.58
NZD: +468///+.58
AUD: +149///+.25
USD: +199///+.23
CHF: +38////+.09
CAD: -807///-1.02
EUR: -994///-1.15
0105 GMT
Mike
Yes Rookie,
As it is a bear fund then guys are buying who anticipate a fall in Euro, price is on the up (shorting Euro) and then you have increased volume, meant first there was a hint of news, then confirmed, and in they jumped.
I have since found out that the news was ref Draghi and Greece, but when the ETF is on the move like that I would usually not take the time to look for the reason.
Btw, Willspread gave the signal first, with USDX as the influence market. the ETF gave a confirmation both on the USD and Euro.
Hey guys!
Iām currently reading a book called, Genius of the beast by Howard Bloom. And came across this line
" emotion and perception are the keys to boom and crash ā
ā emotion and perception are the core of economies "
Iām pretty sure this isnāt completely new, however I was amazed by how he put things into context. He touched on Kondratievs wave in which John Murphy has talked about briefly in his book. Throughout the book he keeps introducing theories after theories bioeconomics included. Although there isnāt anything that I could take advantage of immediately i my trading, like in Murphys Iām finding it to be an excellent read to really understand the underlying forces that comes into play āemotion and perceptionā and many more.
It was no surprise that I kept playing how Peter looks at market in terms of risk on and off sentiment in the back of my mind whilst I was reading the first few chapters 
You might like the book Mike ! Iām thinking of looking into Bioeconomics sounds interesting ? Anyone ?
In retrospect Peters strategy trading S&P500 with USDJPY as a secondary market to gauge fear/greed is a genius idea !
Can we apply the same technique on other indexes ? Take yen ETF as a secondary market to other stock indexes. Anyone ?
Iām in my creative mode, he he. Thanks for the book.
Hi Rookie,
as far as I know the most important secondary market for S&P500 ist the 10yr. USDJPY is important too, it is a confirmation. What I do not know if you want to make it complicated with ETFs right away. If you just setup your index charts with 10yr and USDJPY it should be enough to do the trick. And you have to give āfalseā in W/S for the correlation. Always trade the index considering in which session you are.
Good luck and keep us updated how you progress,
FE
