That chart is “OIL” in tradingview.
I think Rookie will be amazed when he gets up. Probably this will cause him to analyse further on the volume. Of course I missed this one, I still do not check it very often. I have to get used to it.
Hey guys.
(Wow…Peter…I want to be like you when I grow up)
(Thanks you two for those awesome posts)
Well, here comes Thursday’s results.
USD: +553///+5.05
NZD: +261///+1.71
CHF: +179///+1.71
JPY : +172 ///+1.3
CAD: +69 ///+.31
GBP: -184/// -.73
AUD: -272/// -.301
EUR: -778/// -6.34
Majors were on top +.99%
I think Peter is right about the months end play going to the USD. THAT IS INTERESTING TO ME.
The AUD took the other end of that.
Well, I don’t know what to think about tomorrow. Last day. Are we gonna see the USD continue?
One thing I think might happen. Maybe the NZD will have a down day, and much profits will be taken.
Monday they were 2nd, after the GBP. Tuesday they were last. Wednesday they were 1st. Today 2nd.
I just do not know. The Comms are tough lately.
We’ll have to see how Asia starts it off, and then if London agrees.
0105
Mike
Hey guys.
Great posts. Peter & FE.
Correct me if I’m wrong guys.
XLE was behind S&Ps fall. All by himself. But the downward move was faded with relatively big volume kicking in on OIL ETF chart after a while of pause mode in volume, I see bullish candle forming soon after. And so did S&P rise. Not sure about the timing. Am I still with you guys on this ?
I see that Peter uses willspread for momentum, I was wondering if I can use Philips combo stochastics along with 20,50emas for the same purpose on S&P ?
And last but not least, I remember Peter used to look at SPY and its volume but now I see that he’s gone one step further, and analyses sectors and volumes of ETFs that are leading the fall or rise at that particular moment, logically speaking I find this method to be more accurate way of timing entries and exits than looking at SPY. What do you say , Peter ?
Ok guys, as you might know I really don´t like to post articles because I am sceptical and I also do not like to spam the thread with not relevant topics. Still, this one qualified as a very interesting and logical read what summarizes nicely I think our discussions:
Hi Rookie,
I do actually look at stochs set at 5,3,3.
SPY is vital for me for outlook or feel.
Example, yesterday, early on hr1 see the push down on the S&P. There would be a temptation to begin selling after such a push, but then looking at SPY 15min you can see that a lot of the push was contained within one 15min period with nothing special in volume, the next period (15min candle) price started to actually rise with a fall off in volume - an indication of lack of commitment on sellers (i.e. no point in chasing down)
Likewise, notice on the 15min SPY the candle formations are almost identical to the mt4 print out on the s&p cash daily that I posted above, only now you have volume - see how volume on the 15min started to rise before the formation of the hammer candle, buyers were entering on SPY just as they did on OIL.
Btw, I do not take great cognisance of the volume colour.
SPY 15min covering the period of S&P postings above:
I thought this little article was of interest, it’s talking about yesterday’s turning on the S&P etc, the one we were watching. It calls the action “manipulation” and timed it at 3.00pm (8.00pm GMT).
Post 3053, I wanted a time stamp.
Imagine that we were to read this say in about 6 months time - a person might say to himself “well there is no way to predict such manipulation, the markets “turn on a dime” and such turns are unpredictable”.
This is intermarket in action, I chose the S&P because it’s what I’ve learned, but the DJIA or any of the others as per the article would have done.
Have a good weekend guys, next week, new week, new month, new season, new opportunities for learning for us all. 
Hi Peter.
You know…after reading so much of what you post here (exactly what you just did), I’m really itching to start studying that stuff. Look, I love the currencies, but I think I need to smarten up and get going on the intermarket relationships. But, I would like to make the connection to end to the currencies. I guess it would be to the USD.
Well, I don’t know, but one thing I do know. I must start from the beginning, in our thread, and read very very carefully all what you wrote. I remember you stating that this year that that’s your main objective, [I]intermarket analysis[/I].
We’re gonna be in touch.
Until then, I’m gonna digest every thing you have written about that.
[I]Cause I want to be like you when I grow up![/I]
Thanks!
Mike
Hi Mike,
If it was me I wouldn’t bother going back reading me.
We are all learners and I believe that it’s interaction that helps the learning. Things you have posted, things the others have posted causes me to research some more, the markets are evolving and our learning is evolving, so I think that learning is always forward, a bit like forward testing, the picture is always clearer.
Philip’s observation on the S&P yesterday caused a whole tangent of learning for me, that’s team work.
So, again, I would suggest not looking back, instead let’s build on what we have learned thus far. All input, all comments, all observations are the blocks.
Hi Team,
here are my findings for the COT Report:
-
[B]EUR[/B] sell
-
[B]Corn[/B] is to watch to give in a couple of weeks a buy signal
-
[B]Soybeans[/B] buy.
-
[B]Copper[/B] buy (BB said it very many times. Now I do see here a signal, but we shouldnt forget it is against the trend)
-
[B]Cocoa[/B], as I remember I talked about it last time. Still a buy.
-
[B]Cotton[/B] might give a sell signal soon.
-
[B]Orange juice[/B]: I cannot trade it. But it is coming to very interesting extreme levels bot in COT and in Technical Analysis. Might be an interesting setup for Rookie if you can trade it.
-
[B]Sugar[/B]: still down.
That is all boys and girls. I would be happy if Rookie and BB checked the same instruments and would discuss what they see.
Have a great weekend,
FE
Hi folks,
My first post to this thread, but I analyse the CTFC/CoT report each week on the major pairs.
Just thought I’d add to the discussion, I mainly look at the rate of change of the net positions in the report.
For example, the pairs: NZDUSD, A/U, U/J, E/U, G/U, U/C.
This week’s pairs to watch at the Aussie Dollar (was -53k, now 63k, change of 17% but compared to last week’s change, a change in sentiment of 16% additional shorts) and also the USDCAD, was 33k “long” (short the CAD, but the pair’s reversed), this week is 36k net position, so an increase in the bullish bias for the pair. The previous week buyers were getting rid of their long USDCAD position to the tune of -1%, this week’s increase was 10%, a total change of sentiment of 12%.
USDJPY has an increased bullish senitment (8%), EU and GU are flat, both have been decreased in sentiment in line with last week. (GU still decreasing in short sentiment 24%, but last week also 25%)…
Maybe hard to follow along, but this steers me in the right direction all week.
Cheers,
JN
So based on the ROC you decide to long or short a pair?
Hi, the rate of change (only my opinion) gives the earliest sign that the non-commercials have changed their sentiments on a pair. Based on this week’s CoT I’ll be looking for short entries on the AU (the biggest swing), but GBPUSD hasn’t increased or decreased in sentiment from last week, but continues to be offloaded, so also G/U longs. USDCAD long positions also.
They form my ‘bias’, but entries/management are something else all together Just sharing how I use the CTFC report.
Hey guys!
Seems like FE managed to get the analysis done way before me. Way to go buddy! 
Well, I wasn’t sitting around either. Lately, I noticed that my database became a little disorganized, so I did a cleaning. After all, it’s almost Spring, right?
From now on, I’ll use the Composite Index instead of the traditional COT Index. I keep the original 3 years as my variable.
For my reinforcing indicator, I stick with Briese’s Movement Index.
New appearance
Note: I’ll investigate Willco with 3 years as a variable.
COT Report Analysis
Copper: Still a buy for the brave ones.
Cotton: Approaching overbought levels.
FE, here are my thoughts on the instruments you mentioned.
Corn is at neutral levels. I’m looking forward for a signal, as Grains are usually responsive to Commercial activity.
Cocoa is neutral.
Sugar is neutral as well.
It’s nice to see a new member in the thread with a fresh approach.
So you base your trades on the rate of change in Non-Commercial NPs? That seems interesting. Would you mind telling us how exactly you use the ROC in NP? I’m a big fan of anything COT related.
Hi Team.
Here comes some results.
[B]WEEKS 1-3 TOTALS[/B]/////////[B]4th WEEK TOTAL[/B]///////////[B]FINAL MONTHLY TOTAL[/B] (complete total %'s)
[B]NZD:[/B] +21.91/////////+7.56///////////////+30.94
[B]GBP:[/B] +11.51/////////+5.42///////////////+17.19
[B]CAD:[/B] +5.88//////////+4.65///////////////+11.23
[B]AUD:[/B] +2.68//////////-.27/////////////////+2.0
[B]EUR:[/B] -1.2/////////////-9.75///////////////-8.82
[B]USD:[/B] -3.64///////////+3.24//////////////-3.04
[B]JPY :[/B] -17.88//////////-.83/////////////////-17.38
[B]CHF:[/B] -20.45//////////-10.02//////////////-32.12
Just a recap of what went down on Friday. It went all Comms. With NZD leading the way, then AUD, then CAD.
So what jumps out at me as a result of the months end play is 2 things. First off, Thursday ended up being the turn-around day. And it went to the USD. And the excuse was the data that came out. So, the USD went high, and the EUR went low. If you look at the numbers up there the only real change was between the USD and EUR, (in how they ranked). For the lineup (left column) I placed the EUR ahead of the USD, because the totals showed them ahead after the first 3 weeks. And for months end purposes we can see how the 4th week came in. The only line-up change was between them 2. Look at the ending %'s. USD is higher.
And the other thing very interesting to me is this. It’s really a testament of having trends continue. It’s amazing how (other than EUR,USD) all the currencies just fell into place [B]exactly[/B] how the first 3 weeks totals came out. No one deviated from their spot in the line-up! The trends just continued. NZD domination. GBP strongest Major. CAD strong this month. AUD weakest Comm but stronger than most Majors. CHF losing their shirts. JPY is weak.
So…the first month of the year the Majors dominated, +17.05% over the Comms.
The second month went to the Comms, +44.17% over the Majors.
Isn’t it interesting also that you guys are coming out with the Commodity numbers being bullish?
I hope there’s a correlation. Between your numbers and mine.
Ok guys. Have lots of other work to do. We’ll be in touch this weekend.
Mike
P.S. I’m with you Peter with the intermarket analysis.
I’ll be asking some questions…after some thorough research.
Hey Team.
Check this out. Very interesting about the oil.
The real reason OPEC cut oil prices | Futures Magazine
It’s all about the money.
Mike
Live on the S&P yesterday there was a not uncommon phenomena.
Thursday I was using sector analysis to decide when a move was likely to stop, I used ‘drill down’ to almost see inside the market - again it’s possible to carry this analysis over to say the DJIA.
Friday there was possible another type of drill down. The DJIA was heading down all of the session, the Nasdaq had a mission early to reach up to Thursday’s high and then continued down like the DJIA.
The S&P had it’s own mind, it push upward for the first few hours despite the selling elsewhere.
Unfortunately I had little time to record the image, but sector analysis, about midway through the session, was showing all sectors around b/e from open except for one - consumer staples (XLP) was miles into the green.
I know the lone General story is valid here, but perhaps there was a lot of buying in this sector, buying that could spread to the other sectors, even though there is selling in the other markets…maybe this lone General could stir the others …
Easy to dispel that particular notion and by doing so possible to confirm that a sell on the S&P would be a wise trade.
Each sector is made up from individual companies, a quick drill down on XLP and this was visible:
Sure XLP was well into the green, but not only was he acting as a lone General but there was only one lone General within the sector (MNST)
Hey Team,
Before I post my weekly analysis thought I’d do a quick wrap up.
I’m sure FE and BB have noticed palladium long signal 2-3 weeks earlier. We concluded the signal was invalid , against the trend. The metals were in a free fall mode so was gold. But last week palladium did rally and broke out of its range , reached for a new high since 29th Jan just as gold found support at 1196 on 25-26th Feb. Now if you compared the daily charts of these three metals, palladium stands out as to how far it went compared to for instance silver. Silver is still in a downtrend while gold is barely hanging onto 1196. The first palladium long signal was seen on 27th Jan and it continued for 3 weeks. I discount any signals that aren’t 100 or 0. I only count extremes as valid signals I’m assuming so do FE and BB.
My conclusion ? when commercials are screaming buy or sell, whatever the circumstances may be they will find a way around to it. Palladium sure did. All they need was a little push, gold finding support, now barely hanging. Look at palladium 4H chart guys.
Now lets get on to the weekly analysis.
I don’t know how you guys come up with copper buy. According to my database, its already passed its extreme readings now commercials at 59, 6months index. I wouldn’t count that as a buy. Although on daily it looks like a buy still. I think with COT commercials signals, its safer to get in while its 100 or 0 and as the market move along in our direction we adjust the SL. Because once we go in, while the readings drop there’s a chance that the move is exhausted. I know, its easier said than done and usually it takes a week or so before market moves once there’s a valid signal.
AUD jumped back up to 100, a buy signal but timing charts MA disagrees so does daily chart. FE mentioned EUR sell, but neither of COT indexes show any signals that I count as valid. However I see that the extreme buy signal has dropped significantly although no where near 0 what I would count as a valid sell, MA confirms the signal. Just looked at EURUSD at a critical level, EURGBP has already dived down. A valid sell ? Could well maybe. The correction phase may seem to be over, at last. Although we haven’t seen an extreme sell, we could go short on EUR on the premise that correction is over and if the daily chart agrees so. Why not ?
Just realized that I’ve got no soybean. Got to add that onto my database.
I can’t trade orange juice FE, its not on my broker.
And last but not least I remember [B]BB[/B] mentioning, PA PL divergence with Gold. Hows that work in practice ? As I’ve noted gold seem to have led palladium. I don’t see any divergence.
Hi jalapenoninja,
tell my your nickname, my first challenge is to type your name in the mail
Important is to use yourself what works. If it is the ROC then be with it. We are here quite flexible and open for all new ideas. The best is if on the weekend you post for a couple of weeks which pairs do you trade the next week based on your COT signals. If it works good then we can go deeper into it and analyse it. We all have ideas and when they work we share them with each other.
In the beginning I also worked with percentages for a very long time, you can check the let´s first 1500 posts However I like BB´s system a lot, you can find the links to it in the very first post.
Interesting to see short AUD/USD but long GBP/USD. Of course possible but not so easy of course to see USD fall against some but win against others. We will se next week.
Have a nice Sunday,
FE
Update: after reading BBs post I figured out you follow Non-Commercials. In that case you exactly do what I did in the beginning. You can really read the start of the thread when Peter explained me why are Commercials important and why we follow both. Also it is a question if you have read the two COT books that we suggested in the first post.