Hey Team.
Tuesday’s results.
AUD: +474///+4.17
NZD: +417///+3.63
JPY : +224///+1.43
CAD: +184///+1.33
GBP: -389/// -1.88
EUR: -290/// -1.97
USD: -226/// -2.38
CHF: -394/// -4.34
Comms over Majors +9.13%
0120 (Just before the AUD news)
Mike
I think rate hike will have both positive and negative impact on US stocks. For one lower interest rate is always a desirable option for any businesses they’d have more cash floating around for whatever purposes that they may have reinvestment, expansion or simply to keep things from going under water. With Fed looking to increase rate, money won’t be as easy to get hold onto as it did prior the rate hike. It will become expensive, therefore certain businesses or sectors might face some challenges. In that aspect I’m guessing it will be negative for stock market.
However if you really think about it, indexes like S&P especially large cap companies should have enough capital, and cash flow in and out therefore rate hike shouldn’t have a dramatic effect on them, in a way Fed hiking rates means that Fed must think the economy is back to the healthy zone , target inflation checked, labor market checked, pay increase checked. Shouldn’t this encourage investors to invest in stocks ? But S&P might be in an overbought area, I’m not sure if it will keep going higher , a good deal might be FTSE 100 or DAX with QE coming along.
PS: I need to re shuffle that mutual fund 
Hi Philip,
you already got the answer from mrquickbuy. That is why stocks always made a gain when Central Banks announced pushing their rate hike expectations further and further behind.
FE
PS: just see that Rookie discussed the issue already in detail
Interesting discussion.
When thinking about the FED and whether they will raise in mid 2015 there is one thing to remember. No CB likes to KEEP rates to near zero.
From a business perspective interest is just another cost item on the P&L, if a CB comes along and lowers a cost item then happy days for business. Good for business - good for stocks.
The longer that rates stay at near zero then there are two negative effects. First as, Philips post mentions, there is the effect on Savers and Investors. Unlike business, interest is on the other side of their P&L, the longer the poorer returns then the more likely they will seek improvement.
The second effect is probably more important from the FED viewpoint. The longer that you have a reduced cost on the P&L then the more likely that companies will curve fit or tailor their prices to reflect that reduced cost. In a competitive market a company will always seek an edge in pricing, if it does that instead of using the reduced interest costs for expansion then the whole exercise can become bad for economic growth.
This is probably the reason that Mr Carney was speaking of the likelihood of interest rate increase back in mid June 2014, however economic numbers overtook him.
There is a pressure on the Fed to raise rates, the longer they do not then the more negative the eventual rate raise impact will be.
Hi Peter,
although you and Rookie use it very often, I would like to ask 100th time to tell me which site to use for the 15min volume analysis. I did everything what we discuss for S&P except volume. If the setting is difficult then please also share where I have to click.
Thanks a lot,
FE
Hi FE,
Three charts below, all daily, all free.
First is SPX which is the S&P index, being an ‘index’ and thus a summary of share value it doesn’t have a ‘volume’ in itself, although the quantity of shares exchanged has a volume number.
Most sites don’t show a volume for spx, although yahoo have something, I’ve never used it.
Next is ‘Tick’ Volume on Oanda by choosing ‘volume’ in mt4:
And lastly is the SPY
Here is the yahoo chart, just quick glanced it, not sure how good it is:
^GSPC Interactive Stock Chart | Yahoo! Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance
Hey guys.
Wednesday’s results.
CAD: +620///+4.71
NZD: +534///+3.97
AUD: +244///+1.43
USD: +146///+1.02
JPY : +188///+.88
CHF: -58 ////-1.22
GBP: -841///-4.41
EUR: -833///-6.38
Comms took it again. +10.21%
0035
Mike
Hi guys,
I still need how to put volume at the tradingview charts. Can someone tell? I clicked on indicators and then on volume based but the result is completely other from what Rookie and Peter posts. I would like to observe S&P but can´t find volume.
Thanks,
FE
Aha!, yeah it’s not very user friendly, just undone my own settings, took a while to remember.
In Tradingview, select SPY
Then in the “Indicators” tab - make sure NOT the pull down arrow right beside “Indicators” button, click the button itself.
Two lists come up, chose on the right side and (Technical Analysis: built ins) and choose “Volume”.
A messed up volume appears over the chart at the bottom.
On top left of the chart it says Vol(1) and then 3 little icons, click on the centre icon.
You have “inputs” and “style” - on inputs I put ma value at one, and on style I slide the little slider into the centre area.
Then hover over the volume area and right click, on that menu I choose “Unmerge Down”.
That’s it 
Thanks Peter!
This was a huge help. It was quite simple actually:-))) I guess I have to save your post because I will never get it to setup again on my own.
I found something on the volume analysis that might be interesting. That is the only observation that I found with volume so far. If you check an extraordinary red candle, it is most likely a bottom. I cannot say the same with green candles though. Any thoughts?
Hey guys.
Thursday’s results.
USD: +401///+4.22
GBP: +588///+3.43
JPY : +319///+1.49
EUR: +129///+.78
CAD: -14/////+.55
AUD: -9///////+.31
CHF: -473////-4.32
NZD: -753////-6.4
Majors over Comms +5.54%
0030
Mike
Hi FE,
I don’t know which TF you were referring to but interpreting volume proves to be tricky, very tricky thus far at least to me.
But I’ll give it a go again.
Take that green line as a support on 1h chart of SPY. See the huge volume right below where price bounced back ? At the same time, you’ll notice that stochastic indicated SPY was oversold. Price goes up, but with no follow through in volume with stochastic fairly high up, you’ll see that price is struggling to get above 20ema. In fact 20ema has already crossed below 50ema on 1h chart. All very bearish indication.
Yeah, a number of ways of using volume. On the daily chart that I posted see the highest volume was a bottom, but note the price bar that day - the spread was wide, a huge interest occurred that day on preceding rising volume.
Will post some more later on volume.
That was a very nice analysis Rookie. I like this combination: nice and easy.
I checked your chart, look at the middle of your chart, when the support was tested. It was the same combination: price hit support, large volume movement to the downside but no follow through. I see you put Philips settings on the chart, lets do that!
I do believe we will see a nice downward movement. I am only looking at this pair today. Of course NFP might do some surprise but I agree what you said. I especially like it beacuse it lines up with my analysis.
FE
PS: briefly, I do not remember the exit rules on Philips system. Is it the EMA crossover or the Stoc to watch?
Hi Peter,
I can´t even imagine what you did so early in the morning. I thought on Mike and Rookie are the ones who cant stay in bed until morning.
But I am happy to read your thoughts on volume for sure.
FE
Good morning fellas.
Well, it’s Friday morning (for some of us). And I know I haven’t been too active on the thread, with sentiments. Of course the facts always come out at the end of the day. But, I’ve been quite down lately.
Why? Well, what else…losing. Draw down is such a killer. Right Peter? Geeeeezzzz.
I’ve been losing my shirt of the Pound. (And I’m sure your all thinking ‘yeah right Mike, your on demo’)
But…my numbers are just showing me where I’m at. That’s more important to me than ANYTHING.
And I’m not happy. At all.
(…much time elapsing now as I think of what I should say next…)
I could go on and on about it, but I’m sure you all know the feelings.
I’ll be ok.
Ok…that’s nice. I do want to put this out there, about what might happen today. Well…my sentiments.
This is what I see.
NFP day. The AUD dominated the Asian session. Then the GBP came out with some inflation expectation numbers. That didn’t fare well at all for them. So, GBP is out of the picture. The USD has not shown any real good economic numbers this year. And their probably overbought. I think I do remember last NFP day. The market really was waiting for some bad numbers to come out, but that was not the case. Marginal to good. So, their was still some life with the USD. And since then, the market favored the Pound moreso, within the Majors. But the Comms have really been taking over control than the Majors. But, as of this week, the market has dumped the Pound. And the Comms have all been taking turns. And now everyone is looking at the USD. I think the market is just waiting for a catalyst. A real good reason to drop the USD down a couple major support zones.
Well, against the EUR, the USD has no problem. Stronger. And everyone is climbing up on the CHF. GBP has been a threat, and at least has stopped the bleeding from them. The JPY is not giving up too much to the Dollar. They just might be the recipient because no one else is there to be the strong one. Then there’s the Comms. Every one of them has had a field day against the Majors. Even on Wednesday all 3 of them were on top. So, the trend just seems to be slanting towards the Comms. More and more.
So, I think the Comms will be running away with it. And given the fact that the AUD dominated Asia, and London, that when NFP comes, any kind of bad news will only magnify them. I am also watching the JPY. They ride with both camps. Although they kind of favor being with the Comms moreso. Like on Tuesday of this week. It was the Comms and JPY as the top 4.
Well, see.
Got to run.
Talk to you later.
Mike
Hey FE,
Yeah just saw that, good vision ! same thing happened right there.
He uses fibs extensions. But exits can be modified I think.
The trend is bearish 20ema crossing below 50ema, now we wait for a new lower low thats going to be below that support. And you wait until price is overbought 80range and stochs trigger line crosses the main line to the downside.
Great sum up ! Mike
I thought you were trading Philips combo ?
According to my backtest, if you abide by the rules strictly its a pretty good system. And it follows trend, combining stochs with ema crossovers on 4h chart was a brilliant idea, I think. This way it reduces the possibility of us going in too early therefore reduces the drawdown. Out of all the methods that Ive tried and tested for this very purpose, I think his system handles it well than anything else.
Hi Rookie,
but, can you write the exit rules? That is what I do remember. Lets say I enter S&P but I want to know when to exit on the system.
Mike,
I think the problem is that you do not listen I try to tell you every time you come out with the numbers that DO NOT GO VS THE ONGOING TREND. Peter told us how dangerous that is but you are keep trying to catch the bottoms. Your thinking and trading is good in a “perfect ranging environment” as you suppose if a currency ha lost a lot then it also have to give it back. This is actually a great thinking but the problem is you do not have the money to sit it through! Your thinking is more the thinking of how Commercials do it, however we are Speculators
FE
Hi Peter and Rookie,
I have one more problem in Tradingview. It says it shows now premarket conditions and live update is slow. However every time I click reload on the top, obviously all setting are away. This is a great way to learn the setting by heart but annoying to do it 3 times every hour. Is there a possibility to refresh the chart without losing the settings?
Thanks,
FE
Hi Team,
as they say we make the best money when not at the computer. I left my computer for about 70min and at this time S&P skyrocketed. Now I have the decision to close the position before market close or let it go. I know Rookie is not there, but maybe Philip can write on his exit rule.
For sure I will not let this one to become a loser.
FE
