No fundamental reason whatsoever. Since Jan 15, CHF/JPY has not had a four week high. If it gets one without going back below the 200 day moving average I will go long in case it continues higher. If it goes below the 200 day moving average I will go short in case it goes lower. No fundamentals just trend following.
GBP/CHF broke a fresh four week low on March 23rd and the four week high is set to fall this week unless the price goes back up to 1.5200 so I am short and holding short until we get a four week high in that pair. If the price fails to go above 1.4630 by the end of next week, the four week high will be below the 200 day moving average. We have not had the four week high below the 200 day moving average since early 2013 when it fell over 500 pips below the 200 day moving average before turning into the upward trend which went from mid 2013 to Jan 15 2015.
I am fundamentally agnostic and I am simply looking to get in on the next trend. I donāt care if it is long or short.
Took a long on EurUsd pre NFP, (actually on Thurs evening), exited at 100, transition times in fx - always take profit - will try to build a longer term buy but time not right yet, so just taking buys and if movement is fast then exit - maybe Monday/Tue
No interest in CHF.
Still long S&P, just buying any dips - still waiting for that new high (no Adrian, not that type of high :))
Not sure of the reasoning behind XLE, the largest 3 leaders are providers to the oil/gas industry, wonder is there a leak on earnings, second thoughts I doubt that, anyways a kind of risk on I suppose, maybe an anticipation of a break up on WTI ?
Hmmm we will see the WTI. I do believe it is one of the toughest market to trade. Every day comes out so many fundamentals on itā¦ and of course these fundamentals show into both directions every day. They just mess us completely up.
I am also looking into S&P but closed with little profit. I just see uncerntainty now, up and down and up and down. When it will be clear then I jump back. I do the same with S&P then what you do with EURUSD. I wait and wait for the big move but did not come. Still, I am only interested now to the upside.
what is your overall fundamental view on the UK? There are very many mixed fundamental reports coming out lately.
It is also interesting how JPY was in the spotlight last year for its weakness and the news do not talk about it that much anymore. I guess it did not become strong but others became weaker and that is enough to hold it in the middle of the range.
UK economy is āsteady as she goesā - Iād say no terrible shocks up ahead, would also figure some strengthening against USD, following the Euro on that one.
Back on post 3282, we were talking about XLE, see how WTI continued to rise since our talk, so it seems that looking at the S&P sectors can give a clue to investor sentiment.
The USD āsqueezeā was a couple of days late, no new low on Tue was the clincher
there was a very bad hour for Silver today. I got stopped out above BE. Hmmm I do not see such moves very often. Even more interesting is why it happened. I do not find any main reasons for it. The USD only got bad news today from the reports so actually that should have pushed Silver up.
Hmmmm if someone can come up with something good then share it with me.
Peter, S&P is playing with us and is not keen to make that new high.
Lol, they call it character building, the new high is coming, thatās why I buy the dips.
The thing is what to do when it comes. A lot of guys who have been maybe waiting will buy the break, I think sometimes itās better to offload at that time, then back in we go.
I see on Eur/Usd things are continuing to be interesting. Big shock that the US traders had set their buys at certain level, just in the off chance of ānegativeā news.
The level, by coincidence, is that same level on post 3288 - so the next time I happen to read something to the effect āitās impossible to manipulate FX, itās way too big, would take too much capital etc etcā, then I would think, letās take the biggest FX trade, I could then look at Eur/Usd today, and then I will consider the reason that price fell 85 pips at UK lunch time.
Anyways, moral of the story is if you are placing buy orders in anticipation of news, allow around 10 pips for those guys who like to control it tight.
how about shorting Nikkei and DAX? Check guys the daily TF on this two with the RSI. There is a divergence which says there should be a reversal. I am thinking about to wait for a retracement and then jump in to the down side. Any thoughts?
Peter, if this is the case then I guess it is logical to say that S&P high should come also later. What do you think?
Took profits on Eur/Usd, back in again on Mon/Tue - not yet building here, will probably start that soon, itās just that USD shorts are still jittery so the temptation is to take the profits.
See the price fall today at New York Open - thatās the jitters - but they will slowly dissipate - have to keep an eye on the Greece thing.
The S&P long is avg 2065 so no exit there, just more of same, building on this one for the new high, when it comes the position should be reasonable, well thatās the plan.
Donāt actually have one set yet, I know, I know, but itās just the way it happened, I will set a single SL soon.
The momentum triggered by EZ QE was enough to pull investors along in the S&P, but this past couple of days, with some profit taking in Europe, I will be forced to set a b/e SL. If b/e happens then the whole process will start over.
Cannot see any meaningful prospect of building something on the short side on S&P.
I just finished updating my database, so here are the results.
Before I forget, I know I did not post last weekās numbers. That was because BabyPips was unavailable during the whole weekend.
[B]Wheat[/B]
Iāve been waiting for the signal for quite a while now. I know the trade is counter-trend, but since Grains (especially Wheat and Corn) are sensitive to Commercial/Fund extremes, Iāll probably take the opportunity. (6%)
[B]T-Bonds[/B]
We are almost at an extreme. Iām watching the instrument, although because of the strong uptrend, Iāll most likely skip the short. (85%)
[B]VIX Index[/B]
We are approaching the oversold area. VIX responds pretty well to COT extremes, so itās a good idea to pay attention. (25%)
Well I do the COT report the classic way Larry Williams does. The only thing I can report on is that EURUSD COT Index is at an extreme, so we should get ready to buy. Or at least ignore selling the EUR for now.
Philip, you are sounding a little like a voice in the wilderness
Iām only joking, but the truth is that even the cot can be lagging, I suppose, the bottom line is that FEās last four words in his thread title is the only thing that leads.
Speaking of which, many of the current black boxes are trying to harness this very aspect.
