This past 24 hrs highlights my reasoning on day trading Eur/Usd - it is extremely difficult to get a decent position when there is a strong likelihood of that type of price behaviour.
The second lesson for me is that Monday is still a difficult day, I still remain wary of trading Monday or late Friday.
The third lesson is the age old “buy the rumour, sell the fact” still holds true. Yesterday’s rumour was that a deal was complete on Greece. Price jumped on this, I’d say that many traders also jumped aboard the apparent euphoria.
The fact was that the story originated from the Greek Fin minister, the same person who was apparently sidelined as lead negotiator by his own PM, ( Eur jumped on the release of that news) also the same person who has been continually saying that a deal is imminent this past 3 months.
And finally my own little technique for entry - mid Asian today was 1290 - price refused to go up to that level, so no entry ( bounced off the south side of the mid Asian but not brave enough to sell today)
Good chance that 1150 may be the bottom today. but early hours yet, will I buy tomorrow? - not sure, will know after tomorrow’s Asian but I may do.
Yeah I took a EURNZD long earlier today. It still haven’t hit my stop yet though. Its clear that despite the positive data from Germany and now France, the Euro tumbled as all the attention was on Greece.
I do think the selling is overdone however. Let’s see how it goes. Its a really tough market right now because there isn’t one currency at the moment that has a clear trend. Everything is up and down.
Big time, even WTI fell again today, there was some talk that the excellent numbers on pmi from EZ was part of the driver behind yesterday’s move up, even that has been forgotten in the malaise that is Greece.
The mid Asian today acted as a support, means there were no sell orders at that level, bullish in a sense, yet there was no appetite for buys either - I’m flat again, very wary of politicians arguing, little sign of those adults that Christine Lagarde was looking for.
You know, the IMF, in one fell swoop, became a much more potent and professional organisation by appointing Ms Lagarde, likewise Germany is an economic entity to do business with, many times lately I have wondered whether a lady Greek PM would have all this baloney sorted a long time ago.
I wanted to share this site discussing the Taylor Rule
The formula uses employment and inflation to determine interest rates levels. I think its relevant because the Fed is looking at those two figures when assessing normalizing monetary policies. Additionally, the history of FED interest rates moved in the same direction as the Taylor Rule, although the fed was a bit more conservative.
Now as we stand, The Taylor Rule based on the current unemployment and Core CPI levels is 0.38% However that number could rise to 0.78% if the Fed’s forecast of December 2015 of 5% employment and 1.3% inflation is reached.
Now the 0.38% may not be enough for Fed to raise rates (as we said the Fed is usually more conservative than the rule). However, I think the 0.78% reading on the Taylor Rule could justify a hike of 0.25% by the Fed. So this could tell us that a December rate hike is the most likely date. Or more importantly, the rate hikes could be reached when unemployment and CPI is at least 5% to 1.3% respectively.
Just a tiny COT report update. The only thing that sticks out is New Zealand Dollar. The Commercials are currently at a three-year buying extreme. Non-commercials are at a three-year selling extreme.
So its important in my opinion to steer clear of selling New Zealand for now. I will possibly look to buy at some point if technicals align.
I also lost a huge chunk of long-term profits. -500 pips on some open trades was not the best possible gaps. These EUR gaps are going against me not the first time this year…
I think your finding is interesting. Maybe BB can also share his point on the subject. I just finished now my COT analysis. NZD is giving an interesting result. On one side you are totally right with the net position. On the other side, we are looking at the 3 years data (which is logical as we always did that).
However if we look at the longer-term NZD charts, we see that we are in a long-term NZD bullish market which means even the net extreme NZD sell signals were only retracements in the 3 years data what we observed. This means to me that only observing a 3 years data does not give us the real net extreme value for selling the NZD. What do you think?
FE
PS: Mike, you were active lately but disappeared again. Thought you give some update on the system for us on the weekend!
Yeah of course it is. It will be a while before I close it. I have clear rules for exiting trades in all circumstances so this is nothing new. I think you can track all my activity on the myfxbook account
[B]FE[/B] I’m actually talking about a buy. However I shouldn’t get to excited as seasonals point to December being the strongest month for NZD. Also, The 4 year price cycle I have for that pair is in November. So not everything is lining up yet.
Well, the system. I have another demo account specifically for seeing how it all plays out when I put on ALL the trades at the beginning of the week and see the outcome.
But, first, this is what I ended up with.
-.8% on the account
2 closed trades +200.4 pips
8 still running trades ending with -355.2 pips (total pips -154.8)
Running total pips for the last 2 months = +2,536.5
Account totals for May = +17.1% ///Jun = +10.6% ////up to date = +29.6%
And now for the system.
Last week ended up like this.
24 total trades opened up at the open.
12 trades closed.
5 winners///7 losers = -900 pips
12 still running.
So, it wasn’t a good week for the system. The field has changed. (I’m working on a good method of monitoring all that data, should be set really soon here) And that will enable me to have better eyes on [I]how[/I] the field is changing, and [I]when[/I]. More on that later.
But, now I’m a bit concerned about the end of the month play. Because we should know that the field doesn’t go about the trend thing, but moreso about taking profits. So, I think things will get skewed a bit.
Really, it’s like the opposite play.
I’m pretty nervous about things now.
I have 5 trades going now, and I’m down little over 200 some pips. I’m getting ready for bed here soon and just am wondering what Asia is gonna do. I’ll be up and here at the crack of London. (2:30 am my time)
Ok guys. I’ll see you in the am.
Ps…I thought you guys had taken a vacation last week from the thread. That’s the only reason I haven’t been on. But is nice to see you guys now.
FE, I guess the fear over Grexit and the latest headlines is sending investors off to a safe haven, yen has risen significantly amongst some currencies.
Phil, can you give me the link to your myfxbook ?
Mike, just for the record I’ll be around all summer long but I don’t think there’s going to be much to trade. What else do you have running ? I don’t think its a good time to have long term trades running the news over the weekend left a lot of EUR pairs plunging and YEN up. I had long GBPUSD opened last friday I was going to wait until it hit my TP halfway through London it was obvious that fear was set in, market was thin. I got out. I haven’t been trading much these days but I’m assuming this was pretty much the case with most pairs.
Well, I took a hit.
And now I’m out.
Boy…that gap over the weekend really did it. So much for 200 pips stop loss. That means nothing. So when it opened some trades were automatically taken out.
This is embarrassing.
I lost 1,086.5 pips
Ok guys, I got some work to do here. I’m gonna get ready for next month.
most EUR gaps got back on track and erased most of the losses. I wonder how the situation develops itself. Peter, do you have some take from the market sentiment perpective? Philip, some technical updates on EUR pairs?
FE I’m afraid such a week technicals go out of the window. However we all know that fading fear is always the best trade. Tuesday is just as important as Friday this week.
[QUOTE=ForExchange;708421 Peter, do you have some take from the market sentiment perpective?
FE[/QUOTE]
Yeah, just the usual, long Eur/Usd, took the safer break of Asian high, though I’m cross at myself for not taking the break of the mid Asian, especially when price came back to that level and acted as support, means there were buys lurking right there as is often the case.
Have taken the SL up to b/e, probably will get hit, but it’s only Monday
I doubt there is any deal, I’d say they were just taking the other side of all the shorts.
The Asian high (1.1110) was solid support, so seems there was where the buys were - then Friday’s Asian high was breached late, so more buys were lurking there.
Will be interesting day tomorrow, we will know whether today was just a squeeze or not - stocks might play a bigger role, the Europeans were pulled down after the US opened in negative mode.
