There are similar set ups like that across the board this week. I think you did reference them in an earlier post. USDCHF, AUDCHF, AUDJPY all are consolidating near the monthly resistance that happened to be the high for the year. I actually shorted AUDJPY, its an exciting week ahead I have to say.
One other thing I did the commercials data for the GBP and they were more bearish (they bought more), am I missing something?
Hi Philip,
look at my analysis, I mentioned this by non-commercials and peterma answered right after on it. Conclusion: it seems like a bullish signal for GBP.
The exciting week has started.
Here is some news (also from reuters, like rookies):
Red Cross Waits for Guarantees as Ukraine Truce Discussed - Bloomberg
Hi guys,
I do not know if you read my comment about EUR/CHF. I made worries though because many of you mentioned going short with this pair because you see a trending possibility. I think you might not know the special case of this particular currency pair. There are not too many currencies pegged from the pairs we trade. So rather read this following article before jumping short into it:
Swiss Franc 2014 Outlook ā Status Quo | BK Asset Management
I even went long with a small position.
You can find various source like the above mentioned article in the internet. It was the first one I found, that is why I chose this one.
PS: please answer for the question about calculating net positions in my COT report about the metal industry.
FE I think they count swap dealers as part of the commercials and you donāt, If thatās the case then you have the more accurate data. I would refer you to Barchartās COT charts I shared earlier.
Hey guys.
Well, slow Monday.
FEā¦I would absolutely love to delve into calculating the metal industry. I just donāt have any time. Itās tough when I have a full time job. Iām squeezed as it is already with what I do. Sorry!
Iāll tell you what I got going with the trades. I put these in this morning. And their for the week, at least.
AUD/USDāsouth.
NZD/USDāsouth.
GBP/AUDānorth.
GBP/CADānorth.
AUD/CHFāsouth.
NZD/CHFāsouth.
Thereās so much technicals confirming these ones. And you can see that in the big picture Iām favoring the Majors this week. Last week was the Comms. This week I feel it will go to the Majors. So much data coming out for the Majors this week, I just hope that it agrees with my sentiments. I will jump out if it doesnāt.
BTWā¦thanks FE for the reminder about Tues. dairy prices!! (Iām on it)
Hope you guys are all ok.
Mike
Hi guys,
I thought I will read the other book (besides the Commitments of Traders Bible) soon what peterma suggested me in the beginning of this thread (Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders by Larry Williams). You believe it or not but in those ancient times I was even mean once to peterma because of a misinterpretation of his post.
So soon I will let you know what the book is revealing about the COT report.
Have a nice day still!
PS: Mike, I like the first four trade setups. What about the last two? I cross my fingers for you! And please give me the source where I get those dairy prices the fastest. And do not think I expect more work to do from your side. You already do a lot for us!
PS2: Philip, thanks for your idea (about net positions), I will check it.
Iām taking similar trades actually. The AUDCHF short in particular. Three trades of mine have filled: Short audchf, usdchf and audjpy. I will look to buy Gold towards the 1290-1285 area if the decline is unconvincing. I also want to buy usdjpy in the 101.5 area.
All my three trades are slightly more long term, Iām willing to stay in them for around a month before I can rate how they are faring.
Hey guysā¦
I might be able to help you out on metal prices on the weekends FE.
Iām also waiting to go in on AUDUSD and NZDUSD bias USD. This week is packed with news releases, Mike I would also like to know where to get my hands on recent dairy prices ? Does it come out quarterly or every single month?
Yesterday I went short with EUR/USD +20 pips the volatility with most pairs was very low. And few other pairs that I was looking at havenāt given any signal to enter yet. This week is going to be interesting.
See you guys around soonā¦
[B]Dozens killed in attack on convoy, Ukraine says; rebels deny firing rocket[/B]
(Reuters) - Dozens of people, including women and children, were killed as they fled fighting in eastern Ukraine on Monday when their convoy of buses was hit by rocket fire, military spokesmen said.
The convoy had been in an area of fierce fighting between government forces and the separatists when it came under fire from rebel Grad and mortar launchers, the spokesmen said.
[B]Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said all issues around a humanitarian convoy sent by Moscow to relieve needy areas of eastern Ukraine had been resolved, but no progress had been made in his talks in Berlin on Sunday with the Ukrainian, German and French foreign ministers on a ceasefire or a political solution.[/B]
Western sanctions have targeted Russiaās financial and energy sectors as well as dozens of people close to Putin, and Russia has retaliated by banning a wide range of U.S. and EU food imports.
Moscow has struggled to control subsequent price rises and said on Monday it would allow imports from former Soviet Belarus and Kazakhstan of food made from Western raw materials which fall under the embargo.
Vedomosti daily newspaper said Moscow might ban imports of cars, among other things, if the United States and the EU take additional action against it.
The United Nations said this month that an estimated 2,086 people, including civilians and combatants, had been killed in the conflict. The death toll has nearly doubled since the end of July, when Ukrainian forces stepped up their offensive as they gained more ground against the rebels.
Hey guys!
Yep FEā¦I guess you didnāt cross your fingers hard enough. You were right! I got stopped out on both AUD and NZD against the CHF. My other ones are doing ok. Manā¦what happened to the CHF today? ā¦Philip?
Nahhhā¦just kidding Philip. Iām ok. Didnāt lose too much. Itās all about the money management moreso anyway.
Well, Iām gonna get to running the numbers here pretty shortly, on what happened today. (and I know itās not the CHF).
Iāll let you guys know what happened.
Mike
Ok. Here we go. Very interesting!
GBP: +4 -0 3
USD: +4 -0 3
CAD: +4 -0 3
AUD: +4 -0 3
EUR: +1 -4 2
JPY: +1 -4 2
NZD: +0 -4 3
CHF: +0 -6 1
Comms +4 ----shake out.
Now, I had to check if that was right. I believe it is. Letās look at this. We have 4 currencies all equal at the top. 2 Majors and 2 Comms. The last 4 currencies comprise of 3 Majors and 1 Comm.
So, maybe you can tell me if this is an accurate gauge or not. (really)
Majors = +10 (up against) , -14 (down against). That boiled down will equal -4.
Comms= +8 (up against) , -4 (down against). That boiled down will equal +4.
And the end result always will look like that. Whatever the number it is (in this case itās 4), someone is + that number and the other one is - that number. So I just give the one who is +.
Sure it would be nice if we had an even number of majors against comms, but we donāt. 5 against 3. I donāt know what to do about that. I thought of a percentage number before, but, I just donāt know.
So, Iām not holding anything back from you guys here, on how I come up with this. Let me know how to get a more accurate way of determining the split.
Anyway, we can talk about that. But, look at what happened today. It seemed to be a dead heat at the top. But, who was the weakest currency? A Major. So, I think the Comms did edge out the Majors for a tally score. Still kind of close though. 0 = dead even. +15 = biggest spread.
Talk to me.
Mike
I placed my stop 10 pips above the highest wick on the daily. Only a close above these levels would convince me that the trade is not working out. That is a risk of about 200 pips on the three trades I took combined.
Hey guysā¦
Iāve been debating much if I should jump in on NZDJPY short since this morning after YoY inflation came below expectation and NZ treasury cuts economic forecast. I guess the main reason why Iām hesitant to enter now is first off Iām getting this newsfeed US stocks rise as tensions ease in Ukraine. Though I think its too ealy to conclude so if investors are acting upon this so claimed ease then our opinions or actual situation doesnāt realy matter anymore.
As FE has been bringing up on many occasions that JPY is not a strong currency on itself and hasnāt been producing any positive news recently. Once investors feel secure again I doubt if JPY will be able to climb up againts NZD. In fact both with NZDJPY and NZDUSD some sellers have already betted NZD down against USD even prior the dairy price outcome. So either way Iām already late to downward move with both of these pairs. Thats how I see it.
So I thought about it, and have decided to short this pair if dairy price comes out bearish lower than previous readings and just hope that risk will be off on top to support my JPY bias. I know Mikes been eyeing on dairy price index as I read on fx street newsfeed the new price should be out by 12GMT. Iāve also got NZDUSD on my radar I will be keeping a close eye on couple of releases coming out for USD. And like Iāve been discussing with Mike on the weekends I will short this pair if dairy price declines further from previous readings and US produces positive releases in the evening (UTC-Bangkok time)
One thing to note though if NZ treasury have already cut down on future economic forecasts does it mean they already expect a further decline in dairy prices as its a main contribution to countryās GDP and economy. YoY inflation figures coming out at below expectation doesnāt help much with already declining NZD neither. What do you guys think ? Though Iāve mentioned Iāve reached a conclusion to wait, Iām still pondering if I should pull the trigger with both NZDJPY and NZDUSD. Hmmā¦
If the rate hike with GBP turns out to be accurate another setup would be shorting NZDGBP given that dairy price declines further down.
Hi rookie,
thanks for the help with metals!!!
I like your trades ideas, I am in the same trades. AUDUSD does not seem to be as easy as the others.
Donāt forget the news within 45 minutes. Either closed your trades if they have tight stop loss, stay out of the market if you donāt like the news or slowly start thinking about the strategy!
The week started out good for you and the setups are promising.
Hi Mike,
results are not surprising. If we look at it, yesterday was risk on sentiment so Comms had to win. What is more surprising though, that even if risk on sentiment was yesterday, Comms only won by +4. That is a weak signal for me. They should have won with more.
About the scoring system. I think it does not matter that it is 5 vs. 3. That does not influence the result at all. What affects though IMO is that you do consider pairs like GBP/USD and AUD/NZD. These are easy wins (or losses, I do not know how you take these) for both sides. And as there are more Major vs. Major combinations than Comms vs Comms, I do believe that we get altogether better results for Majors than what they actually perform. How do you see this? Besides that it is a great system.
Good morning fellas.
Rookie, good talk about NZD. You bring up some good points. One thing I have in the back of my mind about them is how they seem to go one way or the other. Either very strong or very weak. So, the picture so far this week looks to paint them weak.
If GBP comes out with some good news (shortly), Iām gonna scalp them against NZD.
Manā¦we just donāt know. But, if I see them continually going down, then down it is!
Good luck guys with GBP. Iāll be watching.
Mike
Hey FE.
Good point.
Got some thinking to do.
Right now I got to look at what GBP is looking like before this news coming out.
Good luck!
Thanks
Mike
Hi Mike (and rookie),
I am usually not trying to be critical or negative before one of you might say or think about that, I only look at the problem issues because I want us to advance. So you said I have not crossed enough my fingers or you might think why do I have not so bullish view like you on CHF after such a rally. Well, as rookie wrote they are safe havens and we discussed that they are not so strong besides that. So I do believe CHF is not really trending but using the geo news on its advantage. I made trades vs. JPY and CHF last Monday as it was very similar like this week. Risk on sentiment changed the short-term trend and I could take an advantage of it. In my opinion both safe havens are weak and for this reason I thought it is not so easy to win with long CHF bet. However I like to look at the big picture like you say, and the big picture not for the currency pairs but the currencies itself. And for this, I do see a different story for CHF and for JPY. Some compliment on rookie as I believe he really looks at the whole picture lately and he really good accepted losses and recovered from it fast. For me it takes definitely longer.
[B][U]CHF[/U][/B]
In my eyes (might be good or wrong) CHF is like a ālittle-EURā. I do not want to make here geography lessons but if we look at the borders of Switzerland what do we see? France, Germany, Italy and Austria. All EUR countries! So CHF is very highly dependent on EUR and for this reason they also want to follow EUR. They are both either week or strong. The difference might be for CHF is when something happens to gold and in safe havens issues. But it will go back to the EUR trend I would think. I can be trending of course, but the same way as the EUR (and EUR/CHF is mostly ranging for the same reason). So, currently EUR is weak and why would CHF be strong? I do not see any reason.
[B][U]JPY[/U][/B]
Also safe haven also weak currency but a different story. There is a reason why I do not have many trade setups for this week and I wrote I want to just mostly manage my existing trades. I found the JPY case a lot more difficult than JPY. I have 4 open trades with JPY, I monitor them closely and if I can close them then I might stay away from this currency. What is the problem? Well I like to trade when my fundamental and sentimental bias show the same direction. At the end why else do we make the COT report if we do not care about our findings? My fundamental bias is clearly bearish, because the Japanese economy looks really really weak. On the other side we see in the COT report how strong non-commercials are long with the currency. And COT is not a timing tool but we should still be cautious, because if everyone is bullish even if bad news come out for JPY, who else can go vs. JPY when no one is left. For this reason I will be watching when negative JPY comes out what will be the reaction and how long JPY will hold to the losses. This is important. Bottom line is that my different bias for fundamentals and sentiments keeps me away to enter JPY trades.
And these were only the thoughts of a trader just like you. It does not mean too much because Philip is in a long-term trade with AUD/CHF short so if you ask him, he probably can write as many reasons for the contrary side. If you planned to have a short-term trade and got stopped out it is ok, if it was planned long-term then you had too tight stop loss. Just one more fact: PipCrawler is short for EUR/AUD and long for NZD/CHF currently. I donāt find both setups very convincing but it shows how variously everyone sees the market. He is happy with little changes or ranging, because as he writes he collects good carry trade every day. But carry trade does not save you of course if currency goes vs. you the whole time.
PS for rookie: about your NZD/USD and NZD/JPY setups. First of all it is important in what time frame you want to hold it. I observe currencies like strong and weak and like strong vs weak and try to avoid weak vs weak and strong vs strong. Here is how I see it: NZD/USD=weak/strong, NZD/JPY=weak/weak. That is how I see it. I have to say at the same time that if NZD does not perform better than any setup might be profitable against it.
Hi guys,
I do not know if you watched or not, but ALL 6 GBP news came out negative! This is something rare to say. Hopefully you are also in the āwarā of breaking the very strong 1.6650 support level. I have some problems with these ācommercial friendsā and need some back-up from your side 
I am strongly thinking to open even a larger position at market because of all these bad reports. The caution side only tells that GBP lost already 80 pips in the last 3 hours. So I am thinking to wait for a pullback maybe. I have to decide soon. I just wonder how some traders knew the outcome earlier while in the last 2 hours quite a lot of move was already done. I suffer quite bad though because of news slippage which is known to all of us. I made a sell stop bet under current market price before the news and I got in 33 pips (!) under what I wanted.
Mike, we are still waiting for your dairy resource!
Good luck everyone
Well, this is what I found.
GlobalDairyTrade (GDT). Good website. Complicated. So, I just signed up for email alerts for when the data comes in.
Iām gonna be at work at that time. Well, I shouldnāt be busy at that particular time. But i will try to shoot some info to you guys. 1200 GMT.
You should check out that website. Itās pretty good.
Now, I want to put in some limit trades for today. (set ups) And that will be for NZD to go more south. I would like to see things just continue for them to keep on dropping!
Weāll see what happens.
Mike