Hi flows,
Yeah that could be but I just thought there could be something else on top of that. Unless the reading came out a lot lower than what was expected which I doubt that was the case. In any case specs really took it to the next level. I should have been careful playing with two high yield currencies I’m thinking, probably best to avoid them in the future.
Hi rookie,
Yeah, I agree. There maybe other reasons, and perhaps we’ll never know. Good thing you protect your equity with SL. Good luck for your next trades.
Cheers,
Hmmmm… interesting what you wrote. Williams really writes what you said, but I did not use that as I also did not see it in his charts? Did you see that? I just compared price action to the MA on the weekly chart and it if lined up to the buying/selling signals.
Hi guys,
I think you start worrying a bit too early. EUR and CHF had a good day and we are already talking about sentiment change. We shouldn’t forget that EUR, CHF, GBP and NZD were falling like a stone vs. USD the last weeks/months. This is unusual. There are normally retracements. It was an easy way to make some money but not a normal day. So if trend goes against us it does not mean our bias is wrong. I also do not see a special reason for the move, but we do not need a reason. It is a retracement and we take it into consideration.
AUD is more complicated. We have to observe in the weekend with COT analysis specially for AUD. I remember when Philip sent the great video where the guy was talking about AUD strength in the next month. Well it has been since a couple of weeks and we took good wins. (At that time we talked about making short-term trades. I am not even with AUD trades besides vs. CHF.) Altogether my long-term bias is not so strong for AUD. Now this bias can be wrong. For this reason I stay a bit further away from AUD. It had a run, but Philip highlighted to us I think that this run might be a bit overvalued. I think he is right. We shouldn’t forget that in long-term China’s economy should not grow as fast as in it did in the past. NZD is already not running so good. These are macro factors which in long-term does not help the AUD. More than that, the Governor finds too high the value of AUD. These are some main discussion reasons for weaker AUD.
Altogether this does not mean that trading AUD long is not a good idea. But IMO not across the board. For this reason, I do not find it right when rookie wrote his EUR/AUD and espeically AUD/NZD idea was not so good and he has to be more careful. I think the trade ideas were great with very good winning potential. We cannot win every trade. If we see an edge, we go with it. Sometimes we still lose. This is the game. I agree, at this moment with the stronger NZD, AUD is maybe not a good decision vs. NZD. However with EUR I would not make worries at this moment. Carry trade is still good and EUR is still very bad.
These were some morning thoughts 
There was one chart where it was visible to me, I don’t have the book with me now to point it out. Will reference it later.
I agree with your opinion that we are seeing a pullback in EUR, CHF and JPY and its natural. I actually remember we had very strong retracement in EURUSD that lasted for two weeks. Some people talk about a forced floor inserted by large speculators (which was the case with the 1.35 level). It could also be the SNB enforcing the peg and buying EUR. Ultimately it does not matter, this pull back is great to sell the Euro and I’m still waiting to pull the trigger on my EURAUD short.
However It is very likely that we are not seeing a retracement in GBP. It could be very likely that the recent fall was in fact a correction. Luckily for us it seem that we have a clear signal that will help us determine where GBP is heading, and that is the Scottish independence referrendum. I’m looking to buy GBPAUD and GBPJPY for a short term play, but not yet.
As for AUD I feel that the reasons for its decline are much bigger for its rise. As flows mentioned about the Chinese data but even RBA governor speech does not really give us any momentum. And with the USD doing so well it is normal to see money flowing there. I think on the long term I feel AUD is directed more by its high interest rate and we’ll see money flowing back in it as soon as the dollar hype dies down a bit.
Good morning guys. :44:
Good stuff. It does seem like we just have a lot of correction going on. Like Philip said, “money flowing”.
And I’m still waiting also. Have my eye on the pound. They are flexing some muscle. Got a good ways to go though.
Hey…just wanted to throw this in. Wanna talk global…ok…how about this. Don’t ask me what it means, but I’m sure it means something.
Here is a daily chart, dating back to the first of the year. USD/CNY. US dollar against Chinese Yuan.
Well, in any case, it’s interesting.
Mike
Hey again.
Ok. I guess I’m the one who needs to bring this up.
Majors vs. Comms.
I even mentioned it over the weekend. We know that the model of M vs. C is AUD/USD. Ok. So, let’s look at the chart.
Daily chart. And look at the resistance line. Yes, it bounced right off of that.
The farther down that goes, the more of a Major victory over Comms.
Man…I should’ve seen it coming.
Mike
Hi Mike,
I was watching this chart in the last weeks and made my entry points on the short side from the channel resistance. There is once line though that is also very important and you should consider it. At the .9240 level there was a strong support level which made a channel with a bit above your resistance. After the broker of this support level it can happen that we see a serious USD strength in my opinion. At least in the short-term the break of this level can be an answer for the huge fall of AUD. I think it trigerred many SL and brought buyers into the field.
Philip,
ok, I am waiting for the chart you mentioned. When you find it please tell and I check it. Until then, I try to find a good index or maybe even the whole indicator on the web.
Have a nice day guys
Ok. So I’m very curious about this. I went back to the weekly chart, AUD/USD, and found where the next major support level is. Hey, if it obey’s the lines (to some degree) then I ask where may it bounce from.
Mike
Here is the middle of the week trade update:
[B]1. Closed trades:
GBP/JPY: -294
GBP/CHF: -225
USD/CAD: +58
AUD/USD: +56
NZD/USD: +121
NZD/USD: +154[/B]
Financially it was a good start of the week because NZD positions were the largest and GBP positions were the smallest. All the trades were running for some time and were not opened this week. As I said financially I am satisfied, with trade execution I did a poor job.
I closed the GBP trades because of uncertainty. This is ok. What is not ok that I closed them in about the worst possible point. That is a slap in the face. I considered my trades too risky and invalidated so I closed them to protect my account.
I am also not satisfied with 4 winning trades. I removed my last EUR and last CAD TP level as I believe in the long-term success of these trades and they are running pretty awesome. I did not delete my TP for the above mentioned trades. Well I took nice gains but still I reduced my gains compared to the moves on the market.
There are times when we make good decisions and lose, and there are times when we do not do a good job but win. The second case occurred with me now.
[B]2. Running Trades:
EUR/USD short and USD/CAD long[/B]: both of them have a large win without a TP level. I just let them run as I think the USD strength will hold on.
[B]EUR/CHF long, AUD/CHF long, CAD/CHF long[/B]: they are not doing good, especially AUD. Still I do think the bias is valid and after a retracement they have the potential for good money. I do believe the current CHF strength comes from the current EUR strength so we see a normal retracement. Actually it would be good to think about to add to my existing positions.
[B]Exotic currencies:[/B] another hit came this week. I do not know how many hits can possibly occur.
[B]3. Open orders:
USD/CHF long[/B]: here my entry was not triggered and I thought this trade idea is gone. However it is heading to my entry point.
[B]Silver:[/B] it is still not at 18.80 but my order waits calm.
[B]4. Regarding some other setups:[/B]
I do think we get some good [B]EUR setups[/B] that I will watch for. I wait with GBP until the vote, but if it is done then I will be bullish like Philip if the vote is no independence. If it is independence then I wait and see. Still, EUR/GBP is looking like a nice setup and some other EUR setups are looking good, I get ready on EUR/AUD to jump in some time. Weak AUD and strong EUR in the last days is very tempting to go short! But most of the EUR pairs are the same, with AUD is it the largest move. If we get guys the high point of it then…. $$$!!! We should go after the EUR now and discuss it in the thread maybe.
Wow lots of posts I have quickly went over FE and Philips conversation over COT index I’m going to read more and will engage in the conversation I can’t be missing that! Talk about capturing the big moves !
I think I must have mistyped FE I meant I would have been better off holding EURAUD short than AUDNZD long I think something was off besides all the reasons that flows and Philip and you wrote I’m thinking it’s probably best to avoid pairing high yield currencies especially in this times I meant.
I agree much with Phillip that when dollar rally dies down investors will probably head to aud given their AAA sovereign rating. And they aren’t doing that bad economically.
I haven’t done any trades since then thought about taking a brief break always good after a loss. And I see EUR and some other currencies having a good run against USD as I’m reading you guys posts and I think it’s probably a correction especially EUR much needed that big correction it’s quite big even on daily chart. I might want to jump on that myself soon ;p.
You mentioned you’re longing EURUSD FE ? If I haven’t misread. Whys that ? Is it something to do with commercials extreme levels ? Signal to long euro ? I know Philips index has been showing extreme levels for euro yen for a while now.
I see what you mean with EURAUD FE!
Looks like fibs 100% level is holding EUR from trending higher. I already see bearish candle forming second one on 1 hour chart probably still a little early to enter. But I might jump in on that but we’ve got employment data for aud tomorrow I think better watch out for that. I remember I was with one aud position when employment data came out much worse than expected and I lost hundreds of pips later to find out besides the headlines just like NFP everything else was good. Talk about speculating…
Hi rookie,
well, at least I can say you really read carefully my posts Of course EUR/USD long was false, I already corrected it to short. Thanks for mentioning it.
And great that you want to be part of the “COT Index + Indicator” Challenge. As I said I just found it extreme powerful in the book. Now with some forex experience I am really careful with the “great systems” out there, but still I have to give it a try if I believe in something. I like this system because it does not give hundreds of signals, you do not have to sit all the time looking your charts. Once the charts are ready you have to click it through and it captures pretty big moves. As Philip also said, DD might be a bit bigger while sometimes the signal comes a bit too early. But the winning possibilities are just huge. We make small steps with Philip in this issue, but I think if we finally get it right than with little effort we can make huge steps in the future.
This AUD makes me to think a lot about it. I have to catch up with it then. And exactly now has Peter holidays when we have so many issues to solve! COT Index he would for sure say it easily where we make the mistake, he could also help us with AUD. Next time we discuss the time when he can take a holiday. Just kidding.
Anyway, “flows” is getting more and more active so we might give some work for him if he stays here
rookie, here is an article to AUD jobs report:
Forex Trading Guide: Australian Employment Report
Congrats on your winnings FE! Good MM there
Lol, my activity is mostly due to my journaling. I opened a micro account last month just to get a feel of trading live. What kind of work are we talking here?
Hi Team,
I was looking at the price action today and I already missed some serious pips with [B]AUD/CHF long[/B] at a great price. The boat is not gone, more than that I also entered [B]EUR/AUD to the short[/B] side. Both positions are small, I did not enter any other trades vs. EUR or CHF. My game is playing the short pullback for AUD that I mentioned earlier. With AUD I am still cautious but for short-term I do see a good chance here.
Flows, we also do not have huge accounts at this point. We want to get better and better and make then some money on the way. And later on more money on the way:-)
So, it is of course not compulsory to take part in the analysis. It is how we all got a lot better though. If you share your findings and thoughts we can say our thinking on it. We are all having our own “job” for what we are responsible (except peterma who is correcting and helping all of us. That is his job ). This means even if you are not comfortable with your own field of work, with working on it every week, you will become the expert of that field. You share your thoughts, tell the good opportunities and we discuss it.
It is learning buy doing. You will even get angry at me because I am quite strict on everything But I am only like that because I like to progress. The others are also like this. Getting critics is essential, without that we do not come further on our path. And this whole community is going to the right direction with fast speed. So I guess it is ok. We all discuss all ideas here.
Important is though to understand the point of this thread: we trade with sentimental analysis. We do not discuss here technicals. We do the COT report work on the weekend and make our ideas. During the week we discuss our trades and manage the trades as best as we can. We discuss sentiment on a daily basis. And then it is end of the week and starts all over again.
So you can decide at any time to join us. If not, your comments are welcome and we wish you a good reading.
EDIT: and here is a chart from Jack the Pipper on the often mentioned AUD:
Hi guys,
we have an important event tonight, did not know about that one. Does anyone had read something about it? With rate statement I do not expect anything new but press conference and monetary policy statement could be volatile. The problem is I have not seen so much news about NZD so I am not that comfortable at this point what might be the reaction for the news.
Waiting for your wisdom
I’m also close to taking the EURAUD, if not today it could be tomorrow by the looks of things. I took a shot with EURGBP, was stopped out for 30 pips before the pair tumbled down, I hate it when this happens.
Hi FE,
Ah, I see. Well, I’ve been wanting to create a mechanical system so this whole time I just read technical stuffs. So far, the only non-technical thing I do is COT analysis. But then again that’s just for the poundsterling since I exclusively trade GU for the moment. But I’m up for more work as long as it’s not too fundamental-ish.
Hi flows,
ok, I would suggest you then reading at the moment and learn the COT with us. Actually what we do is purely fundamental and sentiment If you have once the wish to make your horizont a bit bigger and learn new markets then we might talk about stocks, gas, agriculture or metals in the COT report
Have fun in the thread!
[I]I continue now the series here, I write here down my own thoughts about my second COT book as I read it. I write down anyway always for myself what I think is important to look it back later, so I decided why not to post it here too? Important: I write down the own words of the author, in the right order as it comes in the book. However I will not structure the different thoughts and do not write down which pages they were. I just want to mention the sentences which I find important for myself. This is not the same value for you as reading the book (hopefully you will all read it when you have the time for it), however it is better than nothing. I also make my own summary in the end of each post.[/I]
[B]The One-Minute Commodity Trader[/B] - Part II
I pointed out that gold had a seasonal influence to rally around July of each year with a top in December.
[I]
Fundamental Lesson Two: There is a time to sow and a time to reap gold - it has strong seasonal influences.
Fundamental Lesson Three: The future price of gold is heavily influenced by what the commercials do.
Point Counterpoint: Gold does not rally when stocks or economies collapse [/I]
When inflation goes berserk, expect gold to rally. Gold rallies when there is money around, and it is afraid of losing purchasing power. In depressions and recessions there is no money around to buy much of anything, anyway.
The many years of trading have tought me two lessons: the markets are very simple and they are very complex. They are complex on a short-term basis, and simple on a longer-term basis.
[B]Charts[/B] - Part I
I like to look at charts for the following purposes:
1. to determine the trend.
2. to look for emotional binges
3. to find patterns that I know act as springboards to moves.
4. to find places where breakouts or greakdowns can be used for entries or stops.
[I]Bar charts
Candlestick charts
Closing-only price charts
Market profile charts[/I]
The charts may have their greatest value for stops and entries in very short-term time frames.
[I]Point-and-figure charts[/I]
The idea behind point-and-figure charts is that by ignoring trivial price fluctuations, the overall trend is made much clearer. What you see on the chart is a clear pattern of significant price movements up and down.
[I]Kagi bars[/I]
These are like point-and-figure charts in that time is not a consideration, only boxes are not used.
[I]Renko charts[/I]
Since a renko chart isolates the underlying price trend by filtering out the minor price changes, renko charts are supposed to be helpful when determining support and resistance levels.
[I]Moving averages[/I]
[I]Summary:[/I] these pages had nothing to do with the COT report. The first half was more for gold lovers, the second was a basic introduction to technical analysis. It was a good repetition and I even wrote from many chart arts one sentence out because I have never seen these charts. I wonder who uses them. I will continue the read with some technical aspects after the Moving Averages. I have to say Williams disappointed me the first time. The technical analysis is about to discuss that he uses the bar charts and all others are not so effective and he critisizes the other types. But the whole chapter until this point has the conclusion that people can use technicals but nothing can be compared to the COT report. Well, of course I know how important COT is as I would not read the book. But still, I like to be positive on something and not always critisizing other methods which I do not use; maybe I do not even know.
