So, let’s see what the COT Report tells us this week. Very important that the percentile factors and net positions will always show the non-commercial speculators vs. data from the previous week:
[B]AUD[/B]: 62.43% current vs. 69.55% previous. Net position: 22 140 current vs. 41 229 previous.
[B]CAD[/B]: 55.61% vs. 60.54%. Net position: 7 544 vs. 11 630. Rookie pointed out more often how bad it is for CAD that oil prices go down. On the other side the US economy rise is for sure good for Canada too. We have to discuss the issue. I find CAD long a good option at the moment vs. weak currencies to diversify my USD long trades. CAD also has a little, but positive carry trade.
[B]CHF[/B]: 34.67% vs. 29.38%. Net position: - 11 396 vs. -13 825. Probably it is the currency that divide us the most. I have seen from you guys many post with long ideas. It does make sense on some technical basis but keeping mind the SNB in the background for me it looks suicide to go long on the border of the 1.20 EUR peg.
[B]GBP[/B]: 47.20% vs. 59.43%. Net position: -6 584 vs. 26 727. Open interest: 134 560 vs. 256 591. Now, does it make fun to understand from the numbers the whole story? As we work together longer it makes a lot more fun to analyze these reports and see how the fundamentals are confirmed in the COT. I have never seen something like these numbers. GBP lost almost half of its open interest in one week! Now we all know this has to do with the risk of the Scotland vote and investors took their capital out from the UK. The currency became also very bearish compared to earlier readings.
[B]NZD[/B]: 53.02% vs. 74.77%. Net position: 1 120 vs. 9 522. Now here is an alert guys! Looking at the last 4 years data we are heading with fast speed to a COT absolute extreme. Speculators are net short very rarely. We are barely in positive now so better watch out.
[B]EUR[/B]: 26.85% vs. 21.49%. Net position: -137 149 vs. -157 505. Open interest: 397 652 vs. 484 306. Here we can also see a huge difference in open interest. I do not know if it has to do something with GBP or there is another explanation for it.
[B]JPY[/B]: 23.74% vs. 12.77%. Net position: -83 182 vs. -100 673. Now as we see there is a divergence. The speculators got more bullish but this was not confirmed by price action as we have seen more bearish movement. We are away from being at an extreme level.
[B]USD[/B]: as Peter already said, we are at very high levels, should maybe watch a bit out with those long positions.
The [I]USD/RUB[/I] has arrived to historical highs and on my short period of COT analysis it is at the most bearish reading with -6 701 net positions. Look at the fundamentals, this can easily not be and extreme for the Russian currency. There is also something interesting here to mention for COT fanatics like we are. There were only 21 traders for the Ruble. Keep it in mind, if the number goes under 20, then CFTC does not report the results anymore until the number reaches 20 again. In the current economic situation the interest for the currency got a lot less as before.
[I]Trade setups for the week[/I]: I am still bullish with the USD and see some good CAD long setups and short CHF.
I only hope that you will of course win.