Very interesting take. I agree with you on GBPCHF, I’m seeing some weakness on the daily chart. I hope to see a test of 1.54500 this week though, such a difficult level for the pair let alone 1.5. I agree with you also on the long-term picture, I see it even reaching possibly 1.6.
USDCAD you raise a good point on selling pressure at 1100. But may be we will get lucky and see a break towards the longer term target of 1.12.
The only GBP news this week of significance is Mr Carney.
The market will be digesting his words (hopefully I’ll be digesting a nice lunch at the same time) 
Slow down guys. I see there are 15 news posts again. This speed is just too much if I want to go deep in every post (which I always do).
I am very tired, I get up tomorrow earlier so I can catch up.
BTW good luck guys with the Conpiracy Theory vs USD, I will not let it go down though!
And just a short email. I do not know how much you can use the information, but I thought I share it with you. Rookie posted a document last week about Canadian economy and the correlation with oil price, natural gas etc. I have written an email to the author how he sees it now (5 years later after the article was published). The answer is short, but I guess people like him are very busy with getting very many similar emails so I am happy at all to become an answer!
Here it is:
“Tamas - thanks for your interest. Sorry for my tardy reply. I have been away. Yes, the C$ continues to be a “oil currency.” Over the 1980’s and 1990’s the price of oil and the price of natural gas were more highly correlated. Some models used “energy prices” as a driver of the C$. It has now become more important to use “oil prices” and natural gas prices separately. As well, the return to Canadian producers has departed at times from the WTI, introducing some variance. We are exporting more oil to the US, and of course that could accellerate if we can get more pipeline capacity. This would make the price of oil and even more important driver of the C$. I am not sure what else to add at this point since I am not sure of your particular interest or capacity in econometric modelling. Good luck thanks”
Hey guys!
And here we go for Tuesday. Wow. Similar to yesterday. (see above)
GBP: +7 -0 0///+3 -0 0
EUR: +3 -1 3///+3 -0 0
CHF: +3 -1 3///+3 -0 0
USD: +3 -1 3///+3 -0 0
JPY : +3 -1 3///+3 -0 0
AUD: +1 -5 1///+0 -5 0
CAD: +0 -5 2///+0 -5 0
NZD: +0 -6 1///+0 -5 0
Well we have the Majors taking it again! +15…again.
Look at the Majors. All equal except for the mighty GBP.
We sure do have 2 teams going against each other.
And watch, tomorrow, something is gonna change. Anyone have any guesses? (I don’t)
Probably some kind of Comm might come on up and bring a brother or two with them.
Oh…Here is the 00GMT snap shot.
Ok guys.
We’ll chat in the am.
Mike
Morning guys!
FE… you have raised some crucial points that I didn’t look into whenever I write up something fundamental I always anticipate what your response would be I think we all do/may have that tendency don’t we guys ?
On your first remark, how total export charts of the two were correlated positively you hit the nail in the head. Why haven’t I thought about it then ? Good thing that I’ve got you guys our team that offers different perspective. But one thing to add on that about the positive correlation on exports of two countries is that fact that they’re both commodity currencies that may be the explanation why we see such positive correlation especially when it comes to exports. But like I said in my earlier post if Australia succeeds in repositioning itself I think we may see some shift in that positive correlation on total exports. I have this intuition that Australia might get ahead of Canada don’t laugh at me. That’s probably why I’m trying to find what I can to support my view. If you guys got any other perspective on this, bring it on guys! Differing perspective is what we need to move ahead…
Now on to the second point, first off here’s to you :35: I must have been so convinced that AUD will get on top of CAD and beat yen down in the long term that I didn’t look at the A$ instead only volume. But I’m sure when I was writing it up I must have been thinking to myself, if australian meat products will be high in demand years down the road in China price must go higher thus we should expect higher earnings on red meat exports as with rising volumes.
So here’s something on net earning on export of red meat to China :
On the other hand iron ore exports valued at $30 billion in 2009 I know its outdated but this was all I could find however export volumes are forecast to continue to grow but softer commodity prices as a result of ongoing oversupply in key markets will weigh on prices. Still, earnings should rebound in the coming years as iron ore exports continue to rise and the volume of gas shipments balloons. The government expects resource-export earnings to reach $274bn in the year to mid-2019. It forecasts Australia’s iron ore exports to rise about 6 per cent a year over that period, after a 22 per cent leap in 2014 to 707 million metric tons. Meanwhile, Australian gas production will more than double.
I think it maybe too early to write off commodity exports and it still will be taking up a big chunk in total exports of Australia. Red meat exports to China and other SA countries maybe something thats still in the process and yet to take up a big part in exports as other commodities. But thats exactly my point… looking out for a potential. And now we’ve got the biggest iron ore Australian company joining on in the competition to get their share in red meat market in China. I see a potential and possibly few years down the road /yeah FE you’re right its going to be a long shot/ that AUD might come on top or maybe even sooner. In the meantime like I quoted from earlier paragraph mining sector should keep Australia’s economy above the surface possibly into the positive area.
It will take some time for Australia to reposition itself and obviously it won’t going to happen overnight, but buying AUD against JPY in the medium to long term I think given Japan’s current economic condition and yet they’re planning to go ahead with the next consumption tax hike provides a good chance at AUD gaining over yen in the medium to long term. And the pair like Mike said from technical point of view has a lot more room to go up, and has been correcting quite a bit. I mean just how low can AUD go down against yen ?
(I have found a full report on red meat market China - I will study that and will get back with more :33:)
It has become my morning routine to watch bloomberg tv online…
For a fundamental freak like me not only does it give you an insight, but also an idea or two to explore further. That is where I have been drawing my inspirations from for write ups and to get into that thinking ‘investor/economist’ like. I especially prefer the morning segment - asian - and then I read the articles I try to it gets updated every day or few times during the day a lot to catch up and watch short videos on economy section while I’m on the go.
And this morning on the fx segment during asian broadcast the host brought up how deutsche bank forecasts dollar yen pair to soar as high as 115 - 120 and their currency analysts recommended to long AUDJPY that was quite a surprise as I had that thought prior I heard the segment. That gave me further conviction. Anyways watch out for them Mike the underdog.
While yen was rallying across the board yesterday thanks for the link Mike btw I managed long USDJPY at a better price than if there wasn’t a pullback finally! I’ve been getting in and out of USD long trades and I haven’t been as patient as I should be but I’m more than happy with my performance so far. Hope everyone’s doing good! I’ll be back
Hi guys,
testing is very important. So as I said yesterday, I got up early today and I am already working on to catch up. Before I work on all your great posts (I see everyone has contributed yesterday and it seems like Philip tested something) I just wanted to say I bought the first time an Index.
Yeah, I know, do not even say it… getting finished wiith exotic currencies and getting in the Index business a day later on. Does not sound to convincing I guess.
I entered the trade not based on my extanded knowledge but I watch the index since some time and the reason I entered it is purely a test of the Williams system. If you have the book (now I know most of them do, I think only rookie does not have it), please check the page 118, especially look at the table in the bottom left corner. Since I follow the index, this was the first valid signal so I am very interested.
I thought I share the information as it is also a test from one one the systems. I entered the market at 1975.63.
FE
EDIT: I checked for confirmation how the S&P 500 setup is doing in our COT index system, you believe it or not, it gives us 1 of the few, to be exact of the 6 valid entry signals of the last 3 years! This makes me even more excited about it. I post the index and you have to look the far right signal, I did not post it on the candlestick so we can see it. We will see if it turns out good or bad, but it shows me perfect that following other markets besides the 8 currencies in COT does make sense and gives us a lot more opportunity to make some pips for our efforts.
Hey guys…
I’ve been trying to get historical compressed file of cot report financials futures only onto my PC starting from Jan this year only. I did manage to download the data however there isn’t a column on non commercials or commercials , it isn’t as straightforward as the weekly report that we’d get instead there’s dealers, leveraged money and asset managers positions. So I figured leveraged money and asset managers would be specs and I tried adding them up however it doesn’t seem right , when I check back it doesn’t add up to my data on excel that I have been compiling on specs and commercials since August this year. Anyone ?
Hi rookie,
for this reason I started a couple of weeks ago to download all markets, maybe we need electricity, gas, metals etc. once. I am even surprised you see any kind of columns. I once downloaded also the historical data and there were no single words only numbers behind each other. I just wanted 1 number and it took minutes to figure it out which one is it. I wanted to make historical resarch to extand my COT analysis but it would take an enormous amount of time to figure it all out. You thinking seems to be logical, but I rather stay away from these historical COT reports, rather I just want to get the right numbers from this May and our database will get bigger. Or one possibility would be to find the original report somewhere on the internet, maybe some forums?
FE
Hey Philip!
I’ve been following your posts and how you went from developing COT index for crosses to this entry technique. While I must say I have doing quite well following COT specs and started looking at the bigger picture my technicals , entries exits were rather sluggish. I only use fibs retracements and basic horizontal S&R and all too often I find myself jumping a little too early the only upside is that I scale in, so when price go against me I take advantage of that and add more positions. Anyways your post was right on time!
I don’t know which broker you’re with but I trade with Oanda and use their own platform. And on the platform that I use I don’t have volatility stops, I’ve only got Williams %R and ATR from what you’ve wrote up there.
You’ve mentioned in your post that we should be looking for an entry to long EURUSD in between
I wouldn’t recommend trying to sort historical data now Rookie. I tried it, and FE seems to have tried it also, and it did not work. In a year or two, you will have a pretty decent COT database so just keep at it
Try looking for Wilder’s Volatility Stops. It is a different name for the same indicator.
FE I will look at the page you mentioned. I just do not understand if you are looking to buy or sell S&P.
EDIT: I’m not sure I follow what you are referring us to in the book. It would be great if you explain the set up in more detail.
Good morning guys!
Good stuff flowing around here.
Well, I figure I will through out the snap shot for the beginning of London (0725 GMT).
I’m here.
I like your app a lot. I don’t about the AUD comeback, it could be. But as far as I remember it was the same case yesterday at the London open; GBP weakness and AUD strength. Personally I think its a nice intraday pullback.
RE:
You’ve mentioned in your post that we should be looking for an entry to long EURUSD in between 0 to -5 Williams %R reading. Looking at EURUSD 4H chart plotted everything except for volatility stop it looks like it would have worked out perfectly. As for determining the SL on ATR value of entry candle multiplied by 2 doesn’t quite add up in my case I’m getting 0.0056 
Well FE has already transitioned into S&P 500 I better get the book soon and join you guys. Thanks Philip by the way for covering things like entry and exit techniques from Williams book. I really appreciate that!
I’ve actually gotten around to download the historical files here’s the link : Historical Viewable - CFTC
And its just as same as the data that we analyze on a weekly basis. Clear simple and straightforward. I want to get the year 2014 across all currencies for now on to my laptop.
Hey Philip, guys.
I hear ya. I was comparing the 2. Yesterday’s and today’s London open.
Here.
I guess we just have to see. :57:
Hi everyone,
I am still behind the thread but react now only for these last posts.
[B]Philip[/B], the system is simple. Williams tested a simple strategy on S&P500 only to show that it does not move random up and down. The finding was that when S&P500 moves 3, 4 or 5 days down in a row then the chance is good that it will rise the next day. He made the test since 1982, about 20 years of data. So I just clicked through the chart every day and it was the first time it moved 3 days in a row down, for this reason I entered long. Checking the charts, it always worked out earlier as the trend is actually always up. In the beginning of Februar 2014 there was quite a pullback to sit through but climbed back again. We will see.
[B]Rookie[/B], I was always sceptical about Fibs, but decided in last Summer to use it as everyone uses it. As soon as I read Williams on Fibs, I saw I am not only myself who thinks Fibs are a joke. I just skip the explanation why I think like that, it also does not belong really to here. However I can always (and really always) find after a setup in some TF a good argument how I could have made a Fib that shows how great it works. Only it is hard to tell which TF, and if I should put my order on the 23.6, 38.2, 50.0, 61.8 or 78.6 level. On one of the TF and one of the levels it always works as it covers basically all possible option. Only I wish you luck that you can the 1 right level and not the 20-40 false levels which did not work
Was only my opinion, I still know many believe in this level. However as I said I do not really plan to discuss it as I do not use it
After you multiply it by 2 you get 0.0056? This means the value is 56 pips. So your stop is 56 pips. In other words add 56 pips to your entry price to get your stop. But you should have Wilder’s volatility its available in every platform.
