I haven’t read much on the subject but i’d like an ebook on the subject! The more confluence the better.
Will you post the link or attach the ebook ? you can attach files in pdf form here 
Thank you flows! for the link it was right on time. I haven’t been in my right mind lately. Or maybe its just me they say you get to know yourself better by trading.
I took the test and it was spot on! I was surprised how precise the report was. I’m reading everyone else’s reports. FE your report was right on! Well it turns out that I’m a value trader.
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As a value trader I typically need to do my own thing and trade something I deeply believe in that is self–generated. If you’ve listened to the media about what’s important to success, then you could find yourself trading with some version of that, [B]but with disastrous results. [/B]
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You probably tend to trust your instincts above all else. This can be good for traders and investors if you’ve managed to train your instincts through extensive market experience. [B]But without such training, it could be disastrous.[/B]
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You are also very interested in what motivates others and are very insightful about what’s going on in them. While this is a useful characteristic in life, it has little relationship to trading. [B]And if this drives you to try to understand the markets, it could cause you problems.[/B] FE has highlighted this issue of mine trying to find reasons behind every moment. It was silly. And I was wasting my time. Thank you FE!
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You also have a clear sense of your values and a true commitment to them. As a result, you tend to develop a clear vision about how to best serve the good of all. And you tend to be very organized and decisive in implementing your vision. If trading is part of your vision, and you develop a sound business plan, then you’ll probably be very good at it.
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You also can be very creative and somewhat independent. You are probably not that good with details,
but you are great at developing ideas for trading.
I think I was getting off track the past one or two weeks. I agree FE I can’t follow every news and announcements. I just can’t. To be frank I’ve been a little overwhelmed lately. Thus why my recent posts were complete nonsense somewhat. I need to get back on track. You see guys I can be easily swayed especially when outside noise seeps in. I just need learn to get in the zone ignoring everything else but my own. I’m finding it hard to overcome but I will there’s no going back now. We’re in for the long term.
And I’m just so glad to have you guys around everyone. I don’t know what I’d do if I was alone. It would have been a long long battle. And FE we call you captain for a reason, because you do the job of a captain so well directing us to the right direction, and help us come to our senses when things get delusional and our judgements become clouded. We can’t ask for a better captain. Thank you guys again. Let’s work on our weaknesses. And I agree FE we’re more than halfway there. The remaining will be rather long and slow progress. It might be even tougher than what we’d overcame so far. So lets stick through it all together.
I have to say Mike this post got me very concerned. You do not have to ‘make up’ the lost pips, this is not in your hand. Sometimes you win and some times you lose. This time you lost, so what can you do? just know that the market will be there and will produce opportunities so you just have to maintain your account to be there when the opportunities occur.
We do not trade tomorrow or the next week, we trade when opportunities present themselves. I know you want 200 pips a month, but how about you make it 2400 pips a year? because one month you might lose or get an opportunity to make 50 pips. But on another month, like the one when we longed GBP, you will make 1000 pips.
[B]Flows… [/B] what’s your reasoning behind going short on silver when silver price is over or getting close to gold ? Is it something that you’ve been observing or is there some other correlation ?
[B]BB[/B]… from what I’ve read VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the “investor fear gauge.” VIX has been considered by many to be the world’s premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility. Did you meant to say that you use this as a measure when trading futures and indexes ? That’s brilliant BB. Enlighten us on the subject. Its very new to me, or some of us. I’m sold on the last line that its used as a barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility /Philip, Mike and I have been interested in VSA spread , I might make of something there/.
And an idea guys… if VIX is used to gauge investor sentiment and market volatility in indexes /well its also used for many other financial instruments such as futures and options/ lets say S&P500 for example when the reading comes down to below certain number a bearish signal we can go long on bonds ? Remember how these two markets bond and stocks have an inverse correlation. Bond is a safe haven where on the other stocks market is risky. When times are good investors flock to stocks but during uncertainty they flee to bonds. Something to think about. Glad you’re here with us BB! And I /we/ can’t wait to see your work , analysis.
Its me again… I’ve been working on this. Have a look at following attachment and let me know what you all think.
I’ve been trying to clear my mind, been reading flows link. And found out that I didn’t have my system in order on paper. I thought by doing this I’d be placing trades from logical and analytical standpoint than feelings and intuition or outside noise, my main weakness. If you don’t already have this on paper I advice you guys to write it down on paper.
PS: Don’t be surprised if it all looks familiar what I’ve done was to put it all together on paper, so that its easy to see. If you have any input please feel free we can actually use this as a blueprint for our system. We haven’t come up with a written form of our system yet 
A trend following trading system.pdf (71.4 KB)
I meant that I actually trade the VIX Index. Here’s the chart:
VIX Futures are involved in the COT report (CBOE). But you are right, they call it the ‘investor fear gauge’.
Readings below 20 = Calm market
Readings above 30 = High Volatility
Personally, I don’t analyze it in-depth. I simply apply the same rules just like in case of any other Futures.
I had no idea that such index even existed for trading. How do you come up with the readings ? Formula ?
COT Index | Stochastic (Net Positons, vara)
COT Movement Index | COT Index - COT Index (x)
OI vs Commercial Longs / Shorts
CP /OI
Willco
These are the tools I’m currently using. I might expand my horizon, but I have to take it one step at a time. I’m currently creating a Word document in which I write down every aspect I find important on the topic of COT analysis.
Here are some pictures.
We talked last week about the ratio on Silver and Gold, the fact that the rate of fall has beeen increasing with silver.
We coupled that with the October seasonal trend.
We discussed how such a scenario is a leading indication of possible stock market turn.
A series of lower lows and lower highs on hr1 since last week Sep on S&P.
ForexLive Forex Market News, Breaking Foreign Exchange, FX Headlines
Hi guys.
I wanted to shoot this out to you yesterday. But, good article anyway.
A pessimistic forecast: Asia redux? | The Economist
Well the first trade opened, short on Eur/Usd, based on USDX.
Trade entered at 11.30am at 1.2662. The sell was signalled at 7.00am at 2710, but I was busy and didn’t notice, it was still valid when I went in at 11.30 so took it.
Validity was confirmed by US10yr, (XAU/EUR and XAU/USD were neutral.)
The trade is still signalling to stay on sell side, this is the testing thing, since I’m trying to set up a weekly trade I think I’ll close for the weekend and start fresh on Monday…
No, on second thoughts, since I’m trying to get this thing to work for swings, and since there is no clear signal to exit I’ll stay with it.
Just testing on Fibre and S&P for the week ahead, today S&P was neutral.
Edit: I was thinking re geo political risks, but no system can quantify that, so I figure that’s what SL’s are for.
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Hi everyone,
Mike,
yes, it was a major day, it would have been better though if finally JPY would start losing again. It is an important wisdom what Philip wrote to you in post 1504. I think that is exactly the reason why we suggested to you maybe to be in the market last month. We made there some good pips, while in October we are mostly down. There you had the chance to make 600-800 pips easily for sure and it would cover the losses. On the other side in this month the 200 pips does not seem to be easy, especially if you are a couple of hundred pips down. As Philip said, do not force trades. Wait for the right setups, if they do not come then you make 400 pips next month. Every month think about the 2400 yearly pips and see where you stand. Still, the 200 pips/every month… I do not know.
Rookie,
you made a good self-reflection. I want to remind you for the part “I need to get back in the zone ignoring ignoring everything else but my own.” Remember that. I can only say how I am doing it. I do not like to even give a chance for others to influence me! THERE IS A REASON WHY I POSTED SOME DAYS AGO I WILL NOT READ POSTED TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ARTICLES ANYMORE. And it is not that I think those people are bad. Nothing against them. But they confuse me. Their analysis just do way too much more harm than what it brings. For fundamental development and intermarket news, development and discussions it is completely enough what Peter shares with us.[B] For technicals Philip has a deep knowledge of the market and it is fully enough. We discuss with you, Mike and flows all other issues (current sentiment, current fundamentals, ideas and bias)[/B]. [I]I just do not need anything else. I look at what Peter has to say, look at how Philips sees it, discuss it with you guys and that is a complete bias. I do believe if Balazs stays with us, he can also give a huge advantage with his tested COT systems. This all fits perfect to our thread.[/I] I still read of course other sites and I also link here as I want to be updated. But I read articles where no one tries to influence me.
I printed out your system so I can read it carefully and make notes. I will come back to you.
Balazs,
you are already a great value. It makes me happy to work with you. The COT report comes out in 13 minutes so we have the weekend to get to know you a bit better! I am especially interested for your view on the metal industry.
Peter,
great that you started to share your trades and findings! I have never seen an exact trade from you! Well, I agree with market sentiment difficulties. It is only the question how important the role of market sentiment in the current economic conditions. I think in these weeks it is very important, in the first half of the year maybe it was that influential.
Fellows, I did not have time to write a middle of the week standing. So I just wrap up very short my week. As with most of you, it wasn’t my week either. Still, what is good, probably the best standing of the week is in this very moment when I write these sentences. The biggest problem is that JPY still did not bounce back. That is many pips for me. I have 16 open positions in 12 pairs. Most of them are long term trades. During the week I made two scalping wins, one was a very small win, the other was better. I traded S&P 500. Do not get shocked, I changed my short-term view 2 days ago and looked to short the index. As no one trades the S&P live, I did not find it important to share this bias change. If it was a currency, I would post my bias change right away.
Good night guys,
FE
HI
great post forexchange .
thank you and good night.
Hi guys,
Before sleeping, I just wanted to share with you something very important. The indexes are falling like a stone. This means JPY is getting extremely strong. This is a clear happening in the market and helps us showing the current bias, so Rookie, this might be a chance to decide on your own without asking anyone and looking at other sites. Which currencies are strong these days? Look at the 7 main currencies on daily charts vs. JPY, look at how they performed today. The only currency which could hold more or less was the USD. CAD surprised me though as it is not know lately for its strength and also it is a commodity currency. I did not lose that much at all. Shows me to watch out.
The recent JPY currency gains are not confirmed from the economy. If the indexes (Nikkei 225 and S&P 500) start rising, I will go short with all seven pairs vs. JPY. I think it has a huge potential.
We will see.
Now I am off.
Arrivaderci
I know I was shouting, but it was important not to go long on the S&P or indeed any of the stock indicies.
The 200 ma was just hit one week later:
This also was important, not because I happened to post, but to see the value in inter-market analysis real time.
The comment was 5 days ago, so you can see what happened in those five days on the current German daily.
Hi FE,
I’ve read 3 articles on the gold & silver ratio, and they all mention that the ratio will favor gold. So when the ratio gets smaller or even negative, traders will “trade” their silver for gold simply because gold is more valuable. However, the articles also mention that the ratio changes from time to time. This is tricky, so I decide to observe the ratio more and try to find a way to objectively measure it (to avoid subjective view). And, btw, those are good qualities you have as a trader FE!
This may be the explanation as to yens recent gains and ‘S&P500’ or other indexes fall on top of usually bad month of October
Apparently the talks have been cancelled by the government ‘it was scheduled on friday’ yesterday. After the talks were cancelled leaders of the student movement called on supporters to return to the streets.
Throughout the week only a few hundred protesters, mostly students, remained on the streets around the financial and government district of Admiralty and in Mong Kok north of the harbour.
I actually like your idea FE to short yen across the board. But I would wait until the story gets old, for now as its still very new everyone will be keeping a close eye on any further developments. Just wait until the initial hype dies down and go short on yen. And I will be waiting on your response on my system. The technical part is still very vague and its a work in progress.
I see Peter is working on a system that seems to be based off of intermarket correlation , while he’s right about geopolitical risks being difficult to quantify , I think we can avoid it all together during uncertainty. I’m looking to hold my trades somewhere from a day to a week max.
You know I’m very intrigued about your system so I’m gonna push further. I actually entered EURUSD short a day earlier, I’m 60 pips up now. Down 30 pips with a usdjpy long though. How was your signal produced though? What happened at the dollar index to convince you of shorting EURUSD?