COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment

S&P 500 Setup here’s my take FE

SPX daily chart


SPX weekly chart


USDJPY daily chart


All in all it was a good call. Like I said I especially liked how you used USDJPY to determine risk on sentiment, thanks Peter for your observation! I can see how they turned just about the same time on a major support, RSI indicating oversold with big volumes coming at a major support along with a long tailed candlestick with not much volume all indication for a reversal bullish sign. However if you plot 200SMA price is still well below the line, I’ve also checked in VIX chart.


This should indicate that volatility is at its extreme therefore we might see a bottom in SPX and possibly a reversal ?


PS: If I’m doing anything wrong with VIX let me know guys… Philip. I’m a little confused even after reading your instruction.

You are spot on Rookie. I’m not sure though that we have bottomed in S&P just yet to be honest.

BB,
I was wondering if you have any COT data. It seems we will be tracking them now so it would be useful share them. If not I’m happy to take today to collect the data today and report on them tomorrow.
I looked at the net position and it felt to me there will be plenty of short positions to unload in the coming days/weeks.

You ask about a connection between bonds and the stock market.

I’ve just seen this excerpt from a book on a website that lets you read books online:

In the past intermarket system developers relied (see Cybernetic Trading Strategies by M. Ruggiero) on the traditionally positive correlation between stocks and bonds to design intermarket systems to predict the S&P 500 based on T-bond futures. This rule has, however, been suspended in the past seven years by negative stock-bond correlation (see Section 5.2 and Fig. 5.5 in Chapter 5), which has necessitated a retreat to a more general position: The correlation can fluctuate because not everything that is good for bonds is also good for stocks.

This is from Chapter 12 of the book:

“Intermarket Trading Strategies”
by Markos Katsanos
Published by John Wiley & Sons, 2009

I’m sorry to be a bit of a pessimist, but when it comes to correlations isn’t it always true that

“Correlations exist between two financial instruments until they don’t”.

Isn’t that what all pairs traders will tell you?

Isn’t that what this quote from the book is telling you?

I guess if you do find a correlation (or inverse correlation) then you can use it to guide your trading, until the correlation no longer exists.

In other words, any correlation that you do find must be treated as temporary, and you should always be alert for the time when the correlation is no longer to be observed in the latest data.

You can view that excerpt from the book online at:
https://www.safaribooksonline.com/library/view/intermarket-trading-strategies/9780470758106/kats_9780470758106_oeb_c12_r1.html

and if you’d like to view all the pages in their entirety then you can sign up there for a free trial.

I was very pleased to see Murphy’s books with “Intermarket” in the title are all available to read at this website too, but Gayed isn’t.

LB

Hi Rookie and PhilipP.

I thought you might like to see this longer term chart of the VIX back to 1994, to view the sorts of peaks you get in market collapses like 2009 and 2000.


The S&P 500 is overlaid in red.

Its from Yahoo Finance, where I clicked on “Interactive Chart” and then drew the lefthand bar on the dates box to the left to expand the dates displayed by the chart.

One theoretical (mathematical) problem you may have with your research is the VIX is simply showing the volatility (or extent of price variability) in the plots on the S&P 500 chart.

Price variability (volatility) goes up when the market tanks because the daily chart plots of the index move farther each day (on average) when the market is falling, and don’t show such large variability in daily price moves when in a bull market.

So there’s a kind of inverse correlation between VIX & S&P 500 - the VIX surges when the S&P 500 is falling, and does very little when the index is moving upwards.

So the VIX merely reports the amount of price volatility being experienced by the S&P 500. So whatever you can see on the VIX, it is present on the S&P 500 chart - the VIX is merely reporting the degree of price variability in the plots on the S&P 500 chart.

In a market crash, the daily S&P 500 plots are jagged and large, so the VIX moves up.

In a bull market, things are much more sedate as the index ambles slowly higher - the daily plots are smaller and closer together, and so the VIX has very little activity to report, so its level stays lower.

The VIX merely reports how far apart the plots are on the S&P 500 chart.

I wonder if examining the VIX will be of rather limited use, i.e. if the market is crashing we can see that on the S&P 500 chart, so will it really add very much if we can also see that the VIX is surging to higher levels? The VIX can only report what we can already see on the index chart.

Sadly there is no magic there, I think.

And when, after a crash, the index bottoms and starts to move higher, we can see that that has happened on the index chart - the fact that the VIX is now dropping doesn’t really add anything.

However, I can see that some people might find it helpful to see that the VIX is on an upward trend - but to be on an upward trend then the index must be falling, and that will be printed for you to see on the S&P 500 chart.

What I think I’m saying is I don’t think examining the VIX adds anything that the index isn’t already showing you because the VIX is directly calculated from the action that the index plots are showing.

Sorry to have to say this, but I don’t think viewing the VIX chart can assist with trading. However, I may well be wrong.

Also this is quite an interesting introduction to the theoretical side of technical indicators - the VIX can be thought of as a technical indicator reporting something about the index - it reports how wildly or quietly the plots are appearing on the index chart.

The problem with this (and probably all technical indicators) is they are mostly derived from price plots, so what can they possibly tell you that you can’t already see on the chart?

If they are completely derived from the price action, which is already printed on the chart, what more can they possibly tell you?

This is kind of a deep theoretical, almost philosophical, question.

If you have the stream of price data, how can doing arithmetic with that price data give you more than the price data already shows?

Logically, you would have to guess, the answer must be very little.

Except maybe indicators that report momentum like MACD and KST - their plots on their charts do seem to reveal something that the human can’t readily detect from the price chart alone.

So maybe I have just destroyed my own argument! :slight_smile:

I hope you haven’t found these observations annoying - maybe I should keep quiet and let you do your own experiments, and then wait to see what conclusions you eventually come to, and post on here, about the VIX and whether you do, in fact, find it useful and helpful in trading.

But we are trying to help one another in a collaborative process, so I thought I’d chip in with my 2 cents worth - and maybe that is truly all they are worth.

LB

I can share it of course, but how?

I think you guys will find this most interesting!

Since there is a continuous discussion about the Volatility Index (VIX), I took a quick peek at the instrument in my database.

Net Positioning


We are approaching a critical level!

COT Index


Will you look at that! That’s what I call a sudden move! Here’s Briese’s take on the phenomenon:

When you see an abrupt reversal in trader sentiment, anticipate a reversal in the current price trend, regardless of the direction of the COT signal. In other instances you might see a commercial COT climax in the same direction as the current trend. Regardless, a sudden 180◦ net position shift after an extended move should alert you that the current trend is suspect.

Movement Index

Current value is -51. I’m a bit confused here though, since the reading might serve as a signal if the trend was down. In my opinion, the chart looks more bearish to me but I leave it to you to decide for yourself.

I disregard OI readings in the case of VIX. Here’s why:


I simply cannot make heads and tails out of it. But it is important to note, that the sudden drop in OI on 2013.01.29. was actually marked a key support zone which has not been broken ever since.

Low OI readings -> Symptoms of a bottom

CP/OI Index


Current value is 0%. Pretty bearish =P

Okay, with all the information in mind, I came to the conclusion that I’m staying on the sidelines. I mean, just look at the chart!


If that is not a stop killer environment, I don’t know what is. On the other hand, I think a drop is around the corner, so if the waters cool down a bit, I might go short.

That is very interested what you shared about VIX [B]BB[/B] I was hoping if you can do the same for s&p if you have it. If you don’t then I’d start collecting data today and sharing my s&p COT report tomorrow.

Hey BB!

What a surprise! I would have gone short already just on COT index , net positioning together with low OI reading. But I see what you mean the chart makes me uneasy about pulling the trigger not that I trade VIX but if I were.

How I wish my database was like yours , think I’ll start working on mine. I just love how you visualize the numbers. Once you enter in the numbers along with the formulas I’m sure it gets easier.

What else are you looking at BB? It would be great if you updated us on your trades, I assume you’re in with gasoline and copper ? I’ll throw in some correlations soon reading Murphy’s book.

PS: where do you get commercials and non comms data for VIX ? I mean from which section ?

Here’s to you guys! :35: I’ll be waiting.

Hey Lagoonboy, if you go back to post 1647 you will see how I think one can make use of VIX for trading S&P. I disagree with you that they are the same and illustrated in the charts how VIX acted as a leading indicator to finding the S&P bottom.
I didn’t show one example, I went through all the examples available since the financial crisis in 2008 and showed how on every single example you could have entered a rally that is 1000 pips+. May you will find something wrong there so let me know what you think :slight_smile:

Since my system has not been triggering any signals in the past two weeks. And since I agree with the sentiment that the thread needs to re-focus on its COT roots, I decided to share some live short term trades that are based on the crosses COT system. We do not have a long term signal that makes us 300 and 400 pips per pair in a week. But I think we can still use it for trades that are one to two days long. here goes,

GBPNZD Long
At the moment the COT index for GBPNZD is at 100. The 52 week MA value is higher than the previous two weeks. So there should be a short-term buying opportunity somewhere this week. Here’s what I’m betting on

As you can see in the chart, you want to buy on a close above the 2.03662. You’re stop loss is 130 pips away at 2.02375. This is a mental stop. Only a close of an hourly candle below that level invalidates the trade. Touching the level and bouncing does not invalidate the trade.

Another way to play the stop loss, and it will be how I do it, is buy above 2.03662, close position at first close below 2.03662.

The targets are 2.05091 and 2.05559 respectively. That’s a potential profit of 140 and 180 pips respectively.

Hi guys.

I just wanted to throw this out there. It hit me pretty hard, (talking about a strength of a currency).

“Assessing the performance of currencies against the value of gold enables a transparent examination of the strength of a nation’s currency”.

“Gold is mainly a reflection of supply and demand. Not a result of any particular central bank actions.”

“Charting gold against different currencies over a 3 month or 6 month period enables a truer assessment of individual currencies than comparing them against each currency”.

So, this is what I got.



This is XAU/USD in candlesticks, and plotted is the other 7 currencies, paired against the USD. Daily chart.
Strength from top to bottom is:
CHF
JPY
CAD
GBP
AUD
EUR
NZD

Interesting to me.
Anybody think much of this?

Mike

Well what I noticed that the top black line topped when XAU/USD bottomed and that the green line (the bottom one) bottomed when gold bottomed.

So it tells me that the black line has the opposite trend of gold and the green line has the same trend as gold. I wasn’t able to identify however what currency is for which line.

Hey Philip…sorry.

CHF—Black
JPY—Blue
CAD—Yellow
GBP—Green
AUD—Red
EUR—Teal
NZD—Violet
That’s the order from top to bottom. As I have it stated there.

So your saying CHF trends opposite of gold, and EUR trends with gold.
Interesting.

It’s probably USDCHF and EURUSD, hence they are at the opposite side.

It takes approximately 10 minutes for me to obtain 4 years of data on any instrument. One you have the template, all you have to do is download the compressed reports from the CFTC’s website and Ctr-C + Ctr-V the specific columns. I’ll share with u guys the way I do that tomorrow but I’m pretty busy today.

Hi Rookie,

very nich post. I have two questions which I did not exactly get:

  1. you pointed out at the time of the reversal the highest level of volume (I cannot see that in my charting program) and at the same time you said there was not much volume. Did you look at it wrong or you meant there was not much volume considering extreme levels?
  2. what is the difference between the last two charts? I see you circled the values on the top but I do not get what does that change.

Keep up the great work!

FE

Hi Lagoonboy,

hmmm… I am also a fan of Wikipedia but learning COT from Wikipedia… I do not know. It would be quite bad if after 1 700 posts we would be now learning COT from that site. And BTW I do not know if you are aware that you can yourself change the content there.

Rather start your learning here:

Commitment of Traders Report

If you are ready there, then start reading the thread to get a feeling for it. We are helpful here but we cannot repeat every single issue from the past. We have discussed several important issues earlier.

Search for Larry Williams and Stephen Briese for COT books. They should do the work.

You can download the weekly COT Report here:

Commitments of Traders - CFTC

These sources should keep you busy for at least a couple of weeks if not even for several months! Without some knowledge it is hard to take part in the discussions. I would suggest going through the steps I suggested. It takes time but you always have to invest time into something if you want to reach high quality.

It might be good to make the guide you said for newbies. But please do that discussion in the Newbie Island, that is why it is there. Good luck with that journey.

Also there are threads on Babypips.com what is legal and what is not. Frankly, I have no idea and at this moment I also do not want to be involved in it. I am only interested about regulations where I live, I am not interested to know regulations in the whole world. Please check that part in other threads, for sure you will get help there.

You also asked about technical parts of trading. That is again, another segment, does not have to do with this thread. You find hundreds of books about it, the internet has thousands of websites and Babypips school addresses the issue, just like many forum thread here:

The Analyst Arena

I hope I could help,

FE

Mike, Philip, rookie, BB,

I think we are on the right path again. Great quality and topic related posts. BB shares us great information tomorrow and we can all make better analysis.

Mike, I have seen a mistake I think in your very great chart (I found it really really useful). Please look at the strength ranking. It does not work in the way you wrote it as the USD is sometimes the base currency and sometimes the countercurrency. We should not forget that. Besides that, I find it really good.

FE