BB, the one FE is linking to is excellent, it’s a good indicator.
The trick is which influencing market to choose.
There are some unusual, try out USD/JPY on say GBP/USD - must make out a list. Can be used as an oscillator also.
Just as a little test, call up EUR/GBP, the apply WillSpread with USDX, inverted, on the default settings, hr1.
Then call CCI, again default.
The magic here is that CCI is on the cross, willspread is on the USDX - a separate instrument.
Then I hear the little cynic inside of me “ha! but the USDX has an element of Euro in it, so it’s not entirely separate.”
So I say back that little voice - ok, then wise guy try this:
Primary market S&P, influencing markets, USB10YR, XAUUSD and USDJPY - all inverted.
Buy S&P when any two have crossed the zero line When price gets to or is above 50sma, reverse for sell - stay in trade while the 50sma is valid - come below the sma and come below the zero line, then exit the buy.
I want to recreate the exact indicator featured in the book. I found FE’s link before, it’s a start but the I have to dig deeper into the matter tomorrow.
Well it looks like the NZD picked up where they left off from Friday. Was on top both days.
I will wager they take last tomorrow.
Also looks like it was risk off also today. It’s funny how it can be both risk off and NZD on top. shrug
Maybe its a month end fix thing going on again on top this mess. I really can’t wait to get this over with, I sympathize with you Philip and start trading again from next week on. Its only been a few days that I hadn’t been trading but it sure feels like a year!. Stay safe guys! Possibly no trades ‘currency’
The pair has already broke through the resistance previous support and now back down for a retest and from a technical standpoint I’m guessing this level should hold and EUR will continue to trend higher until it reached the next major daily resistance. Does that mean should this support hold the pair from trending downwards we’ll see more EUR buying and pound selling ? and how does EURUSD and GBPUSD fit in ? It’s going to be an interesting play if the next major resistance breaks and EUR continues to trend higher… though from a fundamental standpoint its very unlikely.
I’m trying to work out a range trading system that relies ‘mostly’ on technical levels and discounts fundamentals the big picture, now that we’re stuck in a range bound market.
I do agree with Mike and Philip: crazy days are there. NZD is on top with JPY and AUD with CAD on the bottom. Pffff… put this together. I am guys still in the market with many long term trades, 5 short JPY pairs, they are looking good and SL is already above breakeven. I went some long CAD trades last week, they are not good, and I am also in with long USD trades, they are divided with positive and negative results. I am with Rookie about currencies though, I did not open any new positions and concentrate on the indexes lately.
Rookie, I think in your last post in the first sentence instead of “GBP”, you wanted to write “GBP/USD”. Jacks’ article is very good, I read every single blog post here so I read it in the morning. I really liked it. I also comment in very many blogposts to discuss many trade setups with the authors.
Have a nice day everyone,
FE
PS: ok, I think we can give rookie a second try in minigolf.
As far as I understand you want to create the indicator. Go on tradingview, create an account. Look into the scripts section. Search for someone called Greeny, he created CFTC commercial index and Willco for me. Send him a message with a picture of the indicator and the formulae, tell him the use of the indicator and he will probably create it for you. That’s the only help I can give you.
The source code is on MQL5 - the copyright is duly ascribed to Larry Williams. That is the formula as per William’s book “long term secrets to short term trading”, the FE link one has the addition of making the zero line for you - no other difference.
Been test running the 2006 one for a couple of years, will post recent example as an oscillator.
as I am surfing through the tread to make the table of contents, I have found this post from Peter. Ring a bell? Now when I saw it, I remember that I was excited about these setups but we never checked them. Well, the time has come as they are all history. It is a pity that sometimes we have great ideas and forget to evaluate them.
There are 3 problems:
I do not remember about which site the discussion was
I suppose they are US pairs but the description only says 1 side of the equation (I think at the time of the writing it was obvious but after a couple of months I am not in that context anymore)
There are no entry techniques and also no exits.
To search the results, I take the USD on the other side, enter the trades on market open and exit on market close for the given day.
Here are the results in pips and my comments:
Trade: -24, bad timing, if waited a bit longer then it would have generated huge profits
Trade: +733, amazing trade, check the chart guys!
Trade: +320, I do not know why they made a similar trade like the last one but again, amazing exit!
Trade: +83, little volatility with CHF
Trade: -171, this was completely off
Trade: -398, again the JPY, this was really a bad one
Trade: -181, great entry right on the top, exit is however not so great
Trade: -89, another JPY mistake with another awesome entry and bad exit
[B]Conclusion[/B]: +615pips, average: 76.8pip/trade. Now there were good wins and a losses. What I see is the entry technique is great, basically the best possible place in the future! Now someone should tell me it is impossible to see the future! The trades almost always went to the right direction. This means to me that with a tight stop loss we can close early the bad trades and make huge wins with the winning trades.
Peter, can you please confirm that they were all USD pairs? Also, if you have the time I would like to have some write up on this issue. I am really amazed. How and where do they make these suggestions? Do they discuss entry techniques? What is their strategy?
It really does worth to evaluate these setups as it can bring great profits. Do you have some actual setups on the site?
Yeah, JPY was the baddie, with this currency risk appetite really has to be looked at first. I’d say that’s why you see so often guys say ‘oh no I wouldn’t touch the Yen’.
The stats are from MRCI that I was talking about the other day, was reviewing last night, there is a lull from now, will post up some later.
They look back 15 years and winners have to be 13 of those years, then they also run a spread strat. Talk later.
I use EUR/GBP as a meter on Euro or GBP buying or selling - it helps me view those two currencies on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD crosses. When I see a strong move on say GBP/USD I want to know in my mind’s eye whether it is more USD or GBP based. I could check with various sites, but I still want to know from price.
EUR/GBP will do this for me.
The HR! chart below on EUR/GBP has willspread with the secondary markets of USDX on top and USD/JPY next.
I have marked two verticals which give an buy and exit signal. But the important thing is the extreme readings on Willspread ON Oct 15 at 8050.
This extreme reading, in oscillator terms ‘Overbought’ gave me the clear signal that the Euro was llikely to fall up ahead.
That was OCT 15th, on the same date the EUR/USD was up at 2840, it had spiked up further to 2880 ( I was interested to know was this a sign of higher prices for Euro, but willspread was saying no.
Eur/Usd subsequently had another 3 attempts at the OCT 15th high, but couldn’t make it above that,
The meter was saying ‘it has no chance’ - EUR/GBP during those later 3 attempts.
And finally, here is Willspread (again thanks to Larry Williams and his book) in action on the S&P hr1.
There are two halves to this chart, the recent down and then the recent up.
The little system I spoke of, buy when Willspread is above zero and price above 50sma - I just marked when those two conditions applied.
Note how often Willspread stayed in the top half (the supporting market is US10yr price) when price is on the way up, the opposite when on the way down.
The sells were as well signalled on the down side - rules could be adjusted re exits entries.
This is the way Larry Williams suggests using the indicator.
Okay, I finally got it figured out. Damn, it took long enough! Anyway, thanks for the help, this stuff looks powerful, I’ll investigate it more tomorrow!
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