Hey peterma, if I may… There is a huge missing piece in this analogy. In traditional, roll the dice type gambling, the player has no influence on the outcome. It’s “chance”. In markets however, there is no “chance” in price movement. It is literally determined by the consensus of players. If there is a consensus for price to change trend, then it will change. Spotting the consensus…that’s for another disscussion.
Hi Pete,
lol, let’s hope Clint doesn’t show up, then we will have a real debate going re the gambling.
But you are right, for me this is the absolute difference … shsst, I hear the door opening, cigar smoke, silhouette…
I have a seasonality alert, November is the weakest month of the year for the Yen. Data dating back to 10 years show that the yen has consistently gone down against all currencies. USDJPY and CADJPY particularly stand out, November being the strongest month of the year for the two pairs.
Hi guys,
Although Philip analysed RUB, I decided to make the whole analysis by myself so I can present you the charts and analysis. More analysis is good for all of us to see more markets.
At his point I would like to mention that I find it a pity that BB did this amazing tutorial and besides me no one tries it out. I do think that it can be all greatest tool for long-term trading. All other tools are good (I especially like Willspread) bet this tutorial and way of COT analysis is something very valuable. In charting service or some broker platforms they would probably ask good money for such work. Together though we can analyse many markets.
But everyone decides of course what he wants to do and I want to analyse the Ruble I do think we will have here a great opportunity but I do not know when. So using the words of Forex Gump: „We look into this together, shall we? „
Russain Ruble
As I analyse more and more markets, I see more strange things which gives me more experience and the chance to see „not normal” conditions. We have seen the Nikkei where Non-Reportable had such a large market share that the report did not make much sense to analyse. By Ruble one of these „not normal” situations is the Non-commercial positions in 2011, it has a value of 0 for a quite long time. Another one is which shows that Ruble is not a main currency: in 2011 there is 1 less RUB week, in 2013 there are 2 less RUB weeks, and in 2014 there are are also 2 weeks when the RUB did not qualify to be int he COT Report. I far as I remember right, we need at least 20 large traders for a market to qualify for the COT Report.
Just for the record, as there were less weeks/year mentioned in the COT Report, there was a contradiction in making the charts. Usually it is logical that we make the statement: we use 3 years/156 weeks of data for historical analysis. This is not a problem as the 3 years is 156 weeks. Now with the Ruble it is a different case. There were 5 week when they did not qualify so I had to choose to use three years of data with 151 weeks or I use 156 weeks which is more than 3 years (with 5 weeks). I chose the first option. I thought it might be good to know.
The results do point out very important issues to discuss and I do believe it is a perfect example for open discussions. Rookie pay attention, the analysis has many fundamental aspects so you might share your view on it.
Net Positions
Extreme economic and financial situation does bring extreme reading. Only looking at the price chart this should not be a surprise. As it is already expected we should not give a huge value for this.
COT Index
This looks similar to open positions, the extreme positions from both sides ruin my eyes. Before jumping into a trade fast, we observe the situation further on.
COT Commercial Movement Index
The first indicator that is not on an extreme but on a normal level. This shows us there is no optimal long or short entry possibility.
CP/OI and Open Interest
Ok guys, I think at this point I have to rely on fundamentals as these figures show me what is going on in Russia. As far as I read the book correctly and my memory is ok, we should avoid situations where only commercials are there. That is a tough market to beat. It seems like specualtors left the market as the commercials hold 80% and 90% of total shorts and total longs. Ouch! The second picture is also interesting about OI. Peter said many times that our thread is being read. Here is my thinking on it, if I am right, I give the media at least 3-4 weeks to come up with the results: the continuously decreasing OI has to do with the sanctions and war situation. It made everyone uncertain so everyone left the market. The situation is still critical in Russia, however OI has been increasing in the last weeks. This might be an early signal that market players might slowly turn their face back to Russia. If this statement holds true, then the economic situation might also calm down and give strength for the Ruble. This is a long shot, but the first signal for me that it does worth to look out for this market and look for a shorting opportunity in the future.
Willco
Now here I still need BB a bit. He explained to me last time nicely what Willco means but I still struggle a bit how I can use it in the given situation for my advantage. I think this reading shows that we just missed a nice buying opportunity. Sorry guys that the last picture is on the bottom. I cannot see the picture in the attachments so I cannot place it here…
Conclusion: the extreme conditions produce extreme readings but we do not enter a trade now. The great carry trade and very low RUB value shows us though that the Ruble could make us a lot easier money in the currency business than many other ranging markets.
As always, I would like to hear your opinion guys and also your help about my reading of the charts. Maybe I can learn something new or interpreted something wrong.
Hi guys,
I want to ask how you guys make your price chart + other compared chart analysis. I want to be faster for sure in my process. I tried to make such an analysis for Ruble what BB and Peter makes usually. I just wanted to have my price chart at the top and under it 1-2 chart attached so I could compare how the USD/RUB pair moves for net positions, COT index etc.
I think I used the slowest possible methods out there: I took a print screen from the price charts and from the charts. Then I opened it all in paint and tried to cut it together. This did not work as in paint I could not open different pictures in the same document. Then I tried to put more pictures in word one under another. Well this took about 30 minutes and the candles were a lot thiner than my excel sheet so it did not result in any acceptable chart in the end.
What are the better solutions? I would like to make these historical analysis but I do not find a good and fast option how I can put the charts together.
Thanks,
FE
I’ll say what I always tell you, go to www.tradingview.com 
you will be able to do it from there.
We’re going to need Peterma to keep a close eye on willspread and CRB index because I’m already spotting a bearish divergence in the dollar!!
Its ok though, I’m usually early
Willco is pretty easy to interpret. Think of it as an Oscillator. Readings above 75% usually bullish, below 25% is bearish. Since we are calculating with the NP of the Commercials, the signals are probably a little premature as these entities buying into weakness and selling into strength. I use Willco to reinforce COT Index signals.
Note: I’ll make a COT analysis on RUB tomorrow. CFTC’s website must be under construction or something because it is messed up =/
Are you sure? As I review the chart of USD/JPY, the middle of the year seems to be the weakest time for the Yen.
Yes, the CRB opened gap up, it has closed the gap, and is down at Friday’s close.
It’s interesting on the metals, Gold, Silver and copper, see the reluctance to fall today, also see the similar price structure on hr1.
We discussed last night re bottom picking and so on, so I’m not doing that. I am noting the HR1, maybe just a glimmer of a bottom beginning to appear.
One to watch in the midst of this is Aud/Usd, price is, well you can see it on the daily.
We have Aud numbers later tonight.
Looks like Oil is the cause of the CRB fall, it too has hit a support level, the metals are looking the other way, so also Nat Gas.
The S&P continues it’s bullishness. It’s interesting to note that the techs (Nasdaq) has hit another new high today.
Ahh, looking at that weekly chart brings back not so fond old memories, the heady days of the tech bubble.
BTW Willspread gave a buy using the 10yr this morning on the S&P but I didn’t take it - too close to Friday’s high for comfort. I’ll look for a clean break of that before considering going long again.
I have created ProGo in Excel. Since we have to update the data daily, there’s a lot of ground to cover. Will share results on the weekend.
I’m very sure. Seasonality I do is an average of the previous 10 and sometimes 20 years. USDJPY bottoms in June, but its November where the Yen loses the most pips (on average of the last 10 years) to the dollar.
I just can’t remember what ProGo does haha.
Hi Philip,
you are funny!
BTW please check your email. I did not want to use the thread for personal issues. I wanted to send you PM but I cannot send it. The following errormessage comes:
[I]Philip Pirrip has chosen not to receive private messages or may not be allowed to receive private messages. Therefore you may not send your message to him/her.
If you are trying to send this message to multiple recipients, remove Philip Pirrip from the recipient list and send the message again.[/I] - I had actually this message earlier. But then it was fixed and could send it later. Now it does not work. I tried it alread 4-5 times.
I post then the message here:
Hi Philip,
I went to https://www.tradingview.com. Then I logged in and opened the USD/RUB chart. I could not make any steps further. I do not know how can I add not a chart but a picture under it (my own excel table). Although on the bottom left corner there is little box where you can choose more windows but it is only for PRO users, and I do not think it would bring me much as I do not want a chart under my main chart but a picture.
The example you gave me about your entry system was very nice and clear. However you only have step 1, 2, 3 and 5. 4 is missing. Thanks for explaining it!
Can you help there?
Thanks,
FE
PS: please tell if you checked your email as I would like to answer for your long email about entries
Ok go to the USDRUB weekly chart. Click on indicators, search for “William’s Commercial Index” and “Commercial Index”. You will have Willco and COT Index on the chart and can do whatever you want 
Hey guys.
Monday results.
GBP: +5 -0 2///+3 -0 0
EUR: +4 -0 3///+3 -0 0
USD: +4 -0 3///+3 -0 0
CHF: +4 -1 2///+3 -0 0
NZD: +2 -4 1///+1 -4 0
CAD: +1 -4 2///+1 -4 0
AUD: +0 -5 2///+0 -4 1
JPY : +0 -6 1///+0 -2 1
Majors took this one. +10
Mike
Are you looking at this Mike ?
Weekly
Daily
Looks like the underdog has always been there. I’m looking to long this pair long term. But for that I’ll have to wait long. I wonder if yen will manage to pull AUD down at this resistance. If it does, going short may as well do until it reaches bottom , weekly support. Yen needs some correction after all that beating.
How do do you make those seasonality calculations? I want to make some too 
Well you can do it manually, go over month by month. Adam Button also shares the seasonals each month so you can copy from his sheet. You can also look at Williams seasonals and also his Cycle forecast indicator (which I wish I can find the formula to but I don’t).
I personally use this website 