Yesterday turned out to be a very disappointing day for the Aussie since it was unable to take advantage of the market’s optimism. The weaker-than-expected Australian CPI weighed down on the currency, preventing it from rallying against the dollar and the yen like other major currencies. AUD/USD ended the day at 1.0401, 26 pips lower from opening price during the Asian session.
As I mentioned yesterday, even though the headline CPI came in as predicted with a 0.6% increase, the trimmed version only showed a 0.3% increase, more than half the forecast. This meant that inflation pressures in Australia have eased, hurting interest rate hike expectations.
No data coming out of Australia today so turn to economic news from other major economies instead. Pay special attention to the U.S. advance GDP report at 12:30 pm GMT tonight. It usually has a strong impact on the Aussie’s price action.
Surf’s up, mate! The Aussie rode the wave of risk appetite like a boss yesterday, with AUD/USD catching more than 300 pips in gains. AUD/JPY was also able to take advantage of the risk rallies as it closed more than 200 pips up from its 79.29 open price.
A combination of good news from the euro zone and strong reports from the U.S. triggered risk rallies yesterday, allowing the higher-yielding Australian dollar to soar. You should definitely drop by my U.S. economic commentary and euro zone commentary to get the inside scoop!
Australia didn’t release any economic reports yesterday and there aren’t any on today’s schedule. Unless there are any significant shifts in risk appetite, we could see the Aussie go for more gains against the safe-havens today.
The Aussie’s price action on Friday can be aptly described by a line in my soon-to-be wife Alicia Keys’ song Karma: “What goes around, comes around.” AUD/USD bounced from its intraday low of 1.0656 and ended the day back up the charts, around its opening price at 1.0712.
Without any economic data on tap from Australia, I guess it’s not much of a surprise to see a doji on the daily chart of AUD/USD. I wonder if the pair’s price action for today would be much different given the reports we saw earlier.
It was reported that the MI Inflation Gauge for October matched September’s reading of 0.1%/ Meanwhile, private sector credit for the same month topped expectations when it came in at 0.5% versus the 0.2% forecast.
That’s all we have from the Land Down Under today, so make sure you also keep tabs on market sentiment to gauge the Aussie’s price action. Also keep in mind that market junkies are expecting the RBA to cut interest rates on Tuesday. Good luck!
Ouch! That’s gotta hurt! After hanging above the 1.0700 handle on Friday, AUD/USD took a nasty spill and finished 171 pips lower yesterday. With risk appetite declining, the Aussie had trouble finding buyers and found itself closing at 1.0530 against the Greenback.
With the Reserve Bank of Australia’s big rate decision just minutes away (3:30 am GMT), all eyes will be on the Aussie. Most are expecting the RBA to cut interest rates from 4.75% to 4.50%, but there’s no guarantee that the central bank will deliver. After all, equities and commodities have rebounded since the RBA’s last meeting. Furthermore, the labor market has improved as well. Besides, RBA members seem confident that the positive outlook for China will help fuel Australian growth in the months to come.
In any case, I don’t think I have to remind you NOT to miss this report. We could be in for some wild moves! Should the RBA push through with cutting rates, we can expect to see a sharp decline in the Aussie. On the other hand, it may receive a nice little boost if the RBA decides to sit on its hands. Good luck trading today, kids!
As if it didn’t fall enough on Monday, the Aussie continued to dive yesterday! It lost 200 pips against the Greenback as the RBA’s rate cut and general risk aversion struck the high-yielding currency right in the belly. Ouch! In the end, AUD/USD finished at 1.0330.
Blame it on the RBA! The central bank had a direct hand in the Aussie’s fall as it pushed through with the rate cut that many had anticipated. Apparently, members of the RBA believe that slashing the rates was appropriate considering the slowdown in global growth.
But on the domestic front, conditions aren’t [I]so[/I] terrible. After all, the local manufacturing industry has been showing signs of life recently. It’s for this reason that many believe that the RBA may just sit on its hands in the coming months.
Moving on, the building approvals report that was released just hours ago came in quite disappointingly. Approvals declined by 13.6% in August, which is a huge drop from the 10.7% rise in July and is far worse than the 4.5% decline that many were anticipating.
With the markets on a risk-off environment and today’s lone economic release being quite bearish, it seems like the Aussie may be in for more losses. Be sure to keep your eyes on the charts, kids!
Following the beat of risk sentiment yesterday, the Aussie remained steady in yesterday’s trading action and even managed to edge slightly higher. After opening at 1.0330, AUD/USD found itself at 1.0348 by the end of the day, marking an 18-pip gain.
Earlier today, retail sales figures were released and the results were slightly disappointing. Retail sales grew by just 0.4% last month, down from the 0.6% increase in August. This also missed forecast of a 0.5% figure. This didn’t help the Aussie’s cause, which has already set off for new lows and is currently trading below 1.0250.
Whether this will continue for the rest of the day will depend on any shifts in risk sentiment later today. Good luck trading today my forex friends!
The Aussie dollar was far from falling down under yesterday as it got a strong boost from risk appetite. AUD/USD dipped close to the 1.0200 handle during the start of the London session but rebounded and managed to close at 1.0417. Can it go for more gains today?
At first, the Aussie dollar got clobbered because of the weak Australian retail sales report released during the Asian session. The report showed a mere 0.4% increase in consumer spending for September, a notch lower than the estimated 0.5% rise. Around that time, traders were also dumping higher-yielding currencies as they feared that the Greek referendum could prolong the euro zone debt situation.
However, as the ECB rate decision approached, tables started to turn. Greece decided to cancel the referendum, which meant that they could receive the next tranche of bailout funds without any delays. This sparked a risk rally, which allowed AUD/USD to soar to the 1.0400 area.
But could this rally last? The freshly released RBA monetary policy meeting minutes revealed that the central bank was gravely concerned about the euro zone debt situation, which explains why they cut rates during their latest policy announcement. They were also concerned about the slow inflation in their economy as well as the prospect of weaker growth. The minutes showed that they downgraded their GDP forecasts for 2011 and 2012.
Now before you go off and trade the Aussie pairs, here’s a friendly reminder. It’s NFP Friday today! Economic data may have taken the backseat for a while as euro zone news dominated the airwaves, but don’t underestimate the NFP’s potential to make huge waves in the markets. Be careful out there!
Thanks to the lack of report from Australia and a positive NFP reading from the U.S., the Aussie ended the day in the red against the Greenback. AUD/USD capped the day with a 44-pip decline at 1.0372 after hitting an intraday high of 1.0440.
If you’re wondering what exactly moved the Aussie’s price action last week, why don’t you check Happy Pip’s comdoll weekly replay? I heard that the comdolls in general took a hit last week.
Will Australia’s economic reports be of any help to the Aussie this week? The show will start at 12:30 am GMT today when the ANZ job ads report is released, followed by Australia’s trade balance, NAB business confidence, and Westpac consumer confidence reports tomorrow at 12:30 am GMT.
The reports are generally expected to print a bit weaker than their previous figures, but an upside surprise might give the Aussie some support.
Around the middle of the week we’ll get hold of September’s home loans data also released at 12:30 am GMT. Then, at 11:30 pm GMT also on Wednesday we’ll catch the MI inflation expectations report. Lastly, the unemployment numbers will come out from the Land Down Under on Thursday at 12:30 am GMT. Both the unemployment report and the employment change are expected to slip a bit from its previous readings, but stay tuned for any surprises!
Aussie bulls ran out of fuel during the New York trading session to end the day with a win. AUD/USD rallied from its intraday low of 1.0277 and closed at 1.0370, 13 pips below its opening price. So close!
Australia printed out a couple of positive reports yesterday but as it turns out, they weren’t enough to hustle the Aussie for a win. The AIG Construction index for October came in higher at 34.7 than September’s 30.0 reading. Meanwhile, the ANZ Job Advertisements report for the same month only showed a 0.7% drop. Although it didn’t show positive growth, the figure is still better than the 2.2% decline we saw for September.
Uh oh! The country’s trade balance report just came out and it ain’t pretty. Government data shows that exports outpaced imports only by 2.56 billion AUD in September and disappointed the 3.02 billion AUD trade surplus that analysts had predicted.
On the positive side of things, the NAB Business Confidence index for October printed at 2 after coming in at -1 for September.
Remember to factor in these reports when you gauge market sentiment in trading the Aussie today. I have a strong feeling that traders will still be focused on the euro zone, most especially Italy. Good luck!
Worse-than-expected trade balance data? No problem! Though Australia’s trade surplus slimmed down, the Aussie didn’t shed any pips as risk appetite helped it keep its head above water. At the end of the day, AUD/USD closed at 1.0400, 30 pips above its opening price. Will it break above this major psychological handle today?
It looked as though the Aussie was going to have a bad day as disappointing trade balance data greeted Aussie traders early in the morning. Instead of expanding to 3.02 billion AUD, Australia’s trade surplus of 2.95 billion AUD narrowed to 2.56 billion AUD. Apparently, both exports and imports took a hit in September, with exports falling 2.5% and imports dipping 1.3%. No wonder the RBA lowered interest rates earlier this month!
But, as I mentioned yesterday, positive NAB business confidence data helped take the edge off the negative trade figures. The index rose from -1 to 2 last month, showing improving conditions in the private sector.
Earlier today, we got more good news as we received word that home loans picked up 2.2% in September. Forecasts called for a 1.7% increase following the 1.2% uptick in August. So far, this report hasn’t done much to boost the Aussie yet. But don’t lose hope for the day is still young!
For those of you planning to trade AUD/USD today, keep your eye on 1.0400. If this resistance level gives way, the Aussie could be in for more gains. Good luck, kids!
Ka-pow! Aussie bulls got hit hard by risk aversion yesterday. AUD/USD opened at 1.0399 and plunged all the way down to its closing price of 1.0154. If you do the math, that’s a whopping 245-pip loss for the Aussie!
Heck, not even better-than-expected data kept the comdoll safe from the advances of the bears. We saw yesterday that home loans grew more than expected in September by 2.2%, beating the 1.7% forecast.
But then again, perhaps investors are still hung up from the RBA’s most recent monetary policy decision when it cut interest rates. We also have to remember that Australia trades with China a lot and the worse-than-expected data from China might have given the bears one more reason to attack the Aussie.
I wonder if today’s reports will be able to salvage at least some of the Aussie’s pips. Earlier, it was reported that inflation expectations for October was lower at 2.5% than the 3.1% reading we saw in September. On the positive side of things, it was reported that the number of employed people in October increased as expected by 10,100 consequently bringing down the unemployment rate from 5.3% to 5.2%.
What do you think? Be sure you keep tabs on market sentiment to find out!
For the second straight day, the Aussie found itself holding on to the short end of the stick. AUD/USD ended the U.S. trading session at 1.0142, 11 pips lower from its opening price. While the losses weren’t as severe as the previous day, this just goes to show that traders still have some risk aversion in them, especially since Australia’s labor report came in better than expected!
The Australia labor report showed yesterday that joblessness in the country has ticked down to 5.2%. In addition, there were an additional 10,100 workers that were hired the previous month.
No important data release from Australia today and with U.S., Canadian, and European banks on holiday, we may see volatility taper down. It’s likely that we won’t see major price action moves today!
Surf’s up mate! The Aussie rode a wave of risk appetite last Friday, joining its comdoll siblings in riding up the charts. By the end of the day, AUD/USD was at at 1.0285, marking a 143-pip gain.
With no major reports coming out today, risk sentiment will most likely continue to be the major driver of Aussie trading today. Take note that Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi has officially stepped down, so this may help boost sentiment to start the week.
Tomorrow, the minutes of the latest RBA meeting will be released. In case you forgot, the RBA did cut rates, so it’ll be interesting to see what else the central bank has planned. If it turns out that policy makers are open to more rate cuts in the future, we could see the Aussie sink down the charts.
Similar to other major currencies, the Aussie fell victim to traders’ aversion to risk. The currency was sold-off across the board with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY dropping 126 pips and 108 pips, respectively.
There was a lack of economic data yesterday but earlier today, the Monetary Policy Minutes of the most recent RBA meeting was released. It gives us some insight as to how the RBA came up with their decision. The central bank generally said that its decision to cut rates reflected their desire for a more neutral monetary policy. You can check out the entire statement on the RBA’s website.
No major report coming out from Australia for the rest of the day. This doesn’t mean that volatility will be subdued though, as a bunch of tier 1 data is coming out from other major economies. Pay special attention to the U.S. retail sales report at 1:30 pm GMT later. It usually has a strong impact on the Aussie.
Wham, bam, thank you economic data! Okay, that doesn’t make any sense, but the Aussie’s price action does! Though AUD/USD took a hit just like the other comdoll pairs, the Aussie’s losses were limited by better-than-expected economic report from Australia. AUD/USD only rose to an intraday high of 1.0227 before it ended the day 19 pips lower than its open price.
The RBA’s monetary policy meeting minutes was the first upside surprise yesterday as it was less dovish than what analysts were expecting. Thought the RBA indicated concerns in the euro zone one of the main reasons for its latest interest rate cut, it also said that the country’s growth and inflation estimates are within targets.
Australia’s new motor vehicle sales also surprised to the upside, printing at 1.1% in October after clocking in at -1.4% in September. Too bad Australia’s MI leading index showed a 0.3% decline during the month from its 0.7% figure in August.
Will Australia’s economic reports save the Aussie from more losses today? The country’s wage price index released a couple of coffee sips ago only came in at 0.7% in September, which is a bit below the 0.9% growth seen in August. Hmm, does it mean that the Aussie is in for more losses today?
And just when Aussie bulls thought they were in for a win as AUD/USD bounced from its intraday low of 1.0060, the wave of risk aversion came rushing in and wiped them out. The pair failed to stay above the 1.0150 psychological handle and traded lower, eventually ending the day 89 pips below its opening price at 1.0088.
Aside from concerns stemming from Europe, it also didn’t help the Aussie that the MI leading index for September came in at -0.3% following the 0.7% uptick it posted the month prior. From what I’ve heard, it looks like the sovereign crisis is weighing down the outlook of Australians. Yikes!
Our forex calendar is blank for reports from Australia today, so make sure you keep tabs on market sentiment, ayt?
With the lack of economic reports from the Land Down Under, the Aussie traded on risk appetite yesterday. AUD/USD fell for the fourth day in a row and ended up closing below parity at .9994, which is 94 pips lower than its open price.
As usual, concerns in the euro zone and on global economic growth kept a lid on the Aussie bulls’ enthusiasm. Of course, it didn’t help that gold prices slumped by more than 2% yesterday, which also weighed on the gold-related Aussie.
The economic boards are once again empty in Australia today, so make sure you stay glued to the tube for any news events that might affect the high-yielding Aussie!
Guess who put the “Aww” in the Aussie? That’s right, it’s risk aversion! I’m pretty sure that the Australian dollar wasn’t too happy about sinking back below parity against the U.S. dollar as AUD/USD dipped to a low of .9964 last week. Will the Aussie have a chance to recover or is it headed down under?
Australia didn’t release any economic data last Friday as the Australian dollar gave in to risk aversion and lost a lot of ground to its safe-haven counterparts. There aren’t any economic figures due from Australia for the first couple of days of this week so make sure you keep close tabs on market sentiment to figure out where the Aussie pairs could be headed.
On Wednesday, Australia will report its construction work done for the third quarter of the year. After printing a 0.7% increase for Q2 2011, the construction industry is expected to step up its game and triple those gains in Q3. However, if the actual figure falls short of the estimated 2.1% increase, Aussie pairs could be in for more losses. Yipes!
Also on Wednesday, China will release its manufacturing PMI for November. Bear in mind that their PMI just made it back above the 50.0 handle which indicates industry expansion, and it’d be a shame if the index falls below that level yet again. As we all know, China and Australia are trade BFFs, so a downturn in China’s economy could also be negative for Australia.
No other reports are due from the Land Down Under for the rest of the week as most traders will be off on their Thanksgiving holidays. Don’t forget though that less liquidity in the markets translates to more volatility. Be careful out there!
The Aussie experienced a case of “ouchies” yesterday as it gave up a lot of ground to the safe haven dollar. AUD/USD, for example, closed the U.S. trading session at .9664, more than 100 pips lower from its opening price that day.
It appears that risk aversion is here to stay. Global growth concerns are still present and the rising bond yields in some euro zone nations are worrying investors.
No important news release scheduled to come out from Australia today so don’t expect the Aussie to exhibit a lot of volatility. Still, be careful around 1:30 pm GMT, as the release of the U.S. preliminary GDP report could indirectly have an effect on the Aussie’s price action.
AUD/USD cruised across the charts as it moved sideways between support around .9825 and resistance below the .9900 mark yesterday. Will this consolidation continue for the rest of the week or is a breakout in the works?
Without any economic data from Australia yesterday, AUD/USD was forced to stay inside a range as it tried to hold on to the .9850 minor psychological level. Today, Australia just reported its construction work done for the third quarter of the year and boasted of 12.5% increase in construction activity. This was much better than the expected 2.1% rise and the previous quarter’s 0.7% uptick, suggesting that the industry is starting to rebound.
Later on, China is set to report its manufacturing PMI for the month. Recall that the index jumped back above the 50.0 mark and landed at 51.0 last month, signaling that the manufacturing industry is expanding again. If the November figure manages to stay above 50.0 or comes in higher than October’s 51.0 reading, we could see a rebound in risk appetite. Otherwise, if the index sinks back below 50.0 and indicates industry contraction once more, AUD/USD could break down from its current range.
No other reports are due from the Land Down Under or from its number one trade buddy China for the rest of the week. Stay on your toes for possible shifts in market sentiment though!