Daily Economic Commentary: Japan

Way to go, yen! The Japanese currency spent the last few days of 2011 rallying against most of its major counterparts, save for the Australian dollar. AUD/JPY climbed near the 79.00 handle while EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY both reached new lows. Is the yen in for more gains this week?

Japan won’t be releasing any economic data for the first couple of days this week as Japanese banks are still on a holiday. Its only economic report due this week is its monetary base figure, which could chalk up an annualized 20.3% increase for December. Although this report isn’t expected to have a huge impact on the yen’s movement, bear in mind that an expanding monetary base could lead to more spending and investment later on. Stay tuned for the release of this report on Wednesday 11:50 pm GMT.

Also, don’t forget to keep close tabs on risk sentiment for the first few days of this year. It might help to review what happened to the major currencies last year and read up on Forex Gump’s quick and wacky predictions for 2012!

Not much action on the yen pairs yesterday, as they basically chilled at recent lows. GBP/JPY tested the 119.00 handle but eventually closed at 119.19, down just 13 pips on the day. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY took another hit, as it closed at 99.40, marking a 20-pip loss.

With traders coming back from the holidays, we could be in for some jam-packed action in today’s London and New York sessions. Watch out for hard hitting reports coming out from the euro zone and the U.S. – who knows, one of these reports may just serve as the catalyst to set off risk sentiment in a certain direction!

Not so fast! After speeding up on the charts recently, it seems like the yen finally ran out of fuel yesterday. EUR/JPY rallied from its opening price of 99.40 to close the day at 100.07, while GBP/JPY closed with a 75-pip win at 119.94.

Positive data from the [U.S.](http://www.babypips.com/school/united-states-of-america.html) and the [euro zone](http://www.babypips.com/school/euro-zone.html) sparked risk appetite. Consequently, this caused the currency, known for being a safe haven, to plunge.

With that said, be sure to keep tabs on any changes in market sentiment. Keep in mind that the currency usually rallies when risk aversion is in play.

Also, keep an ear out for jawboning from the [BOJ](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/BOJ). Take note that despite the bullish move on yen crosses, USD/JPY still lingers below the 77.00 (yesterday it ended the day 23 pips below its opening price at 76.66) and Japanese officials aren’t happy. Talks of intervention may just cause the yen to slide even more!

Yesterday was bittersweet for the yen as it got mixed results on the charts. While it managed to gain 74 pips against the euro, it lost 8 pips versus the dollar. Let’s see if it’ll be more consistent today!

The key to trading the yen today will be to keep track of risk sentiment, since Japan won’t be releasing any reports again today. That being the case, I suggest y’all shift your eyes to the west, where the U.S. will be publishing some heavy-hitters later in the New York session.

Taking into consideration how the markets reacted to the U.S.’ positive reports on Tuesday, we could see a similar reaction if today’s U.S. releases show upbeat figures. Of course, if risk appetite picks up again, it could result in yen weakness, so y’all better stay alert, ya hear me?!

Once again, the yen’s performance against its counterparts is as crazy as Happy Pip’s new year resolutions. Dollar strength pushed USD/JPY 51 pips above its open price, but EUR/JPY ended up falling by the same number of pips to 98.82. Coincidence? I think not!

Japan didn’t release any economic report yesterday, but developments (or the lack of it) in the euro zone and a risk-averse market environment boosted low-yielding currencies like the yen. Apparently, traders weren’t too happy about France’s bond auction and increasing oil-related brouhaha in Iran. Heck, not even strong reports from the U.S. were able to save the day!

Are the yen bulls done with their partying, or are they just getting started! There won’t be any fireworks again in Japan today, but keep your eyes peeled for any game-changing reports in the euro zone and the U.S.!

The yen proved one of the strongest currencies last Friday as it was able to rally against most major currencies. Here are some numbers: the yen gained 83 pips versus the euro, 24 pips over the dollar, and 94 pips against the pound. Pretty impressive, yeah?

This week, Japan’s economic calendar has nothing of interest as only a couple of very low profile reports are scheduled to come out. What this means is that the yen will probably be driven by news reports from economies, most especially those from other major countries like the U.S. and euro zone. w

With risk appetite on a roll, the yen took some hits in yesterday’s trading matches. GBP/JPY closed at 118.81, up 33 pips from its opening price, while EUR/JPY finished 59 pips higher at 98.13.

With no data coming out and most Japanese traders off on holiday, it’s no surprise that yen pairs traded to the beat of risk sentiment yesterday. The truth is, we can probably expect more of the same today, so make sure you check out my other commentaries to find out what could serve a market-moving catalyst in today’s trading.

Yen pairs entered consolidation mode yesterday, as we didn’t see much movement on the charts. GBP/JPY remained stuck around the 119.00 handle, while USD/JPY stuck within a tight range of less than 15 pips.

No major data lined up for today, so once again, keep an eye out for data coming out from the other major economies. Keep in mind that we’re entering the middle of the week and that after stalling the past few days, we could see a continuation in the drops in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY from last week.

When investors are focusing on events in the euro zone and the U.S., you can bet that the yen will most likely trade on its safe haven reputation! EUR/JPY dropped 44 pips to 97.71, while GBP/JPY also fell by a whopping 113 pips! Booyah!

Since there were no major economic reports released from Japan yesterday, the yen crosses were influenced by worse-than-expected data from both the euro zone and the U.K. Don’t believe me? Check out my writeups on both the euro and the pound!

If still you’re on the lookout for economic data from Japan though, I should probably tell you that Japan just released its current account data, which showed that the difference between the imported and exported goods in November rose to 0.48 trillion JPY from its 0.44 trillion figure in October. Not bad for an export-related economy, eh?
Only the economy watchers’ sentiment at 5:00 am GMT and the preliminary machine tools orders at 6:00 am GMT are scheduled for printing today, make sure you keep close tabs on other reports that might influence the yen, aight?

The yen’s scorecard in yesterday’s trading was as mixed as glass of margarita. While it was able to post gains against the dollar and the pound, it lost some ground to the euro. EUR/JPY rallied to end the day 80 pips above its opening price at 98.50.

Without any market-moving data from Japan yesterday, it seems like the yen’s fate on the charts was determined by the reports that we got for its counterparts. So because our forex calendar is still blank for reports from the Land of the Rising Sun today, it might be best to keep tabs on the economic data we have on tap from other countries. We don’t have anything from the euro zone but there are a few for the U.S. Be sure you don’t miss them!

True to its reputation as a safe haven, the yen gained against its high-yielding counterparts last Friday. No reports were released from the Japan, but EUR/JPY ended up falling by 88 pips to 97.61, while GBP/JPY dropped to an intraday low of 117.30 before capping the day at 117.92.

As I mentioned in my euro write-up, credit rating agency S&P’s move to downgrade FIVE euro zone member states by at least one notch helped spread risk aversion in markets, which supported the low-yielding yen. The question is, will we see the same pattern today?

A couple of hours ago we saw Japan’s core machinery orders clock in a 14.8% growth in November, an improvement from October’s 6.9% decline. Not only that, the change in prices sold by corporations also contributed to the good vibes by printing an expected 1.3% growth in December.

Later at 5:00 am GMT we’ll see Japan’s household confidence data, followed by the tertiary industry activity report at 11:50 pm GMT. Both reports are expected to come in a bit worse than their previous readings, but keep an eye out for any surprises!

Thanks to ongoing risk aversion and the absence of U.S. traders, the Japanese yen was the king of the safe-haven hill yesterday as all yen pairs edged lower. EUR/JPY even reached a new low of 97.03 as a result of the recent debt rating downgrades. What’s in store for the yen today?

Not even the weaker than expected tertiary industry activity index was able to stop the yen from rallying yesterday. The report showed a 0.8% decline for November, worse than the predicted 0.3% dip and October’s 0.7% increase.

Japan won’t be releasing any economic data in the next 24 hours so make sure you keep close tabs on risk sentiment to figure out whether the yen could extend its gains or not.

The yen moved in two major waves yesterday. The currency rallied strongly during the Asian session, but suddenly fell when risk appetite hit the markets during the European and U.S. trading session. USD/JPY, for instance, opened 76.78, fell to 76.55, then ended the day at 76.83.

No major data released yesterday from Japan, and none are scheduled to be published again today. This means the yen could just move sideways versus other major currencies. Watch those major support and resistance levels today folks, as they could hold!

The Japanese yen took a beating from the higher-yielding currencies yesterday as risk appetite improved. EUR/JPY jumped back above the 98.50 minor psychological level while GBP/JPY closed at 118.58. Will the yen have a fighting chance today?

Forex Gump was spot on in predicting the muted effect of the recent euro zone debt downgrades. It seems that traders are focusing more on economic data lately as they reacted positively to better than expected data from most major economies, such as the U.S. and the U.K.

Japan didn’t release any reports yesterday nor is it set to release any today, so make sure you keep close tabs on risk sentiment to find out whether the yen could bounce back or not. Unless a fresh set of bad news come in from the euro zone, it’s likely that risk appetite could stay in the markets for another day so stay on your toes!

The Bank of Japan must have loved yesterday’s yen price action! Why? The currency posted solid losses against its major counterparts! While USD/JPY rallied 34 pips to 77.14, EUR/JPY posted its biggest gains this week and closed 126 pips higher at 100.02.

The weakness we saw in the yen yesterday was once again brought about by the market’s risk-on conditions. Risk appetite is like kryptonite to the yen, I tell ya!

Today, Japan won’t be releasing any new reports. In the meantime, y’all should keep track of risk sentiment. Should this risk rally continue, it could very well mean more losses for the yen. Stay sharp and end this week with a bang, homies!

Yen strength is back in Vogue! Okay, maybe not exactly, but with the USD/JPY gaining 17 pips and EUR/JPY falling by 46 pips, it’s almost the same thing, right? Last Friday the yen lost against the comdolls, but strengthened against its other counterparts on mixed market sentiment.

With traders pricing in potential good news from the euro zone and others thinking of more euro woes, some investors turned to the low-yielding yen. Heck, they didn’t even mind that Japan’s all industries activity for November fell by 1.1% instead of slipping by only 0.6% as expected!

Let’s see if the yen bulls keep up their good vibes this week when the BOJ releases its monetary policy statement. Thanks to weakening yen and increased economic growth concerns, the central bank is expected to maintain its easy monetary stance tomorrow. At around 11:50 pm GMT though, we’ll also get hold of Japan’s trade balance report.

Also watch out for the release of the BOJ monthly report at 5:00 am GMT on Wednesday, the CPI reports of Tokyo and Japan on Thursday at 11:30 pm GMT, and the retail sales report also released at the same time on Thursday.

Of course, you should also always keep a close eye on developments in the euro zone and the U.S. that might shift risk sentiment. Stay sharp on your fundamental analysis this week, kids!

The Japanese yen took a beating from its higher-yielding rivals as risk appetite surged yesterday. EUR/JPY climbed back above the 100.00 handle while AUD/JPY broke past 80.00. Will the yen have a chance to bounce back today?

Despite the lack of trading volume yesterday, price action was just as exciting as the fireworks on Chinese New Year. Today, the yen pairs could be in for another wild ride as the BOJ is set to make its monetary policy decision anytime during the Asian session.

The central bank is expected to keep rates on hold at their current low levels and give an assessment of Japan’s economic standing. Although the BOJ officials aren’t expected to make any changes in monetary policy, stay on your toes for any surprise statements!

The yen got rejected like a Sega console, letting yen crosses soar up the charts to new highs. EUR/JPY rose another 93 pips to close at 101.26, while GBP/JPY soared 151 pips to finish at 121.40.

Aside from overall risk appetite, the yen got trampled on thanks to some rather downbeat comments by Bank of Japan head honcho Shirakawa. According to Shirakawa, economic activity has been flat and that the yen’s appreciation (due to a sharp drop in EUR/JPY) is hurting exports. The central bank also downgraded its 2012 GDP forecasts from 2.2% to 2.0%.

No data lined up for Japan today, so we can probably expect risk sentiment to continue to be the major driver of yen pairs.

Yen crosses continue to rally! The yen extended its losses against its higher-yielding counterparts as a risk rally ensued yesterday. EUR/JPY climbed 69 pips to 101.94 while GBP/JPY ended the day 40 pips higher at 121.80. The Bank of Japan must be smiling from ear to ear!

With the FOMC statement triggering a broad rally across equities, commodities, and forex markets, the yen found itself in Loserville once again. Naturally, this had those that were hoping for the yen to weaken (i.e. yen bears and the Bank of Japan) jumping for joy!

Today, we’ll finally break our fast and feast on some Japanese reports as Japan is scheduled to publish some note-worthy stats right before midnight!

At 11:30 pm GMT, core CPI data will be available. Analysts are expecting inflation to stay in negative territory as the core CPI is forecasted to post a 0.1% decline following the previous month’s 0.2% slide.

Then at 11:50 pm GMT, Japan will roll out retail sales data alongside the BOJ’s latest monetary policy meeting minutes. Look for retail sales to reverse its 2.2% decrease in November by posting a 2.3% increase in December. Good luck, fellas!

After taking some bumps and bruises throughout the week, the yen was able to recuperate some of its losses in yesterday’s trading action. EUR/JPY topped out just above 102.00 before dropping late in the New York session to close at 101.48. Meanwhile, GBP/JPY dropped 30 pips from its opening price to finish at 121.50.

The reason why the yen was able to squeeze out some pips yesterday was due to a late sell-off during the New York session. Clearly, it is risk sentiment that is driving the market right now, and yesterday was a case of poor data from the U.S. spooking market players into selling their riskier assets.

Earlier today, we got some good news from Japan as yearly retail sales growth came in at 2.5%, which was slightly higher than the expected 2.3% increase. Let’s see if this leads to any momentum and if the shopping will continue in 2012!

No other data on tap, so make sure you read up on my other commentaries to find out what data releases could drive the market today!