Ouch! No thanks to another round of risk aversion, the Kiwi took a massive hit last Friday. NZD/USD closed the U.S. trading session at .7502, a decline of more than 100 pips from its opening price during the Asian session.
Earlier today, however, the Kiwi received a little “pick me up” from the better-than-expected results on its trade balance and NBNZ business confidence survey.
The trade balance showed that exports surged in October and helped the country’s trade deficit to taper down to 316 million NZD, much lower than the 400 million deficit initially expected. Meanwhile, the NBNZ business confidence survey printed a reading of 33.2 for November, up the 23.7 reading seen the previous month.
Whether the Kiwi will be able to hold on to its gains or not will largely depend on how data from other major economies look like this week. Special mention goes to the NFP report from the U.S. on Friday, as it will ultimately determine whether risk aversion is here to stay!
Welcome to the slide party, baby! The Kiwi joined the ranks of its comdoll brethren as it slid against the mighty Greenback. With risk aversion back in play and mixed economic data, NZD/USD had almost no choice but to fall 50 pips to a new monthly low at .7471.
As I had mentioned yesterday, the early release of the NBNZ business confidence survey provided the Kiwi with a bit of support when it printed a rise from 23.7 to 33.2 in November.
With consumer spending figures beginning to show signs of improvement, the pickup in confidence shouldn’t have come as a big surprise. The report showed that confidence improved across all sub-components, indicating that the business sector may be gaining a bit of momentum.
But what ended the bulls’ parade was a disappointing building consents report, together with risk aversion, of course. Results from last month showed a disheartening 2.0% decline following a weak 0.5% increase in September.
Since New Zealand won’t be publishing any more reports today, risk sentiment will probably continue to drive NZD/USD. That being the case, be sure to watch for any new developments in the euro zone as the European debt crisis continues to be the main market theme these days.
Good luck out there, kids!
Another one bites the dust! With risk aversion well underway, the Kiwiended up in the losers’ camp yesterday. NZD/USD didn’t rise much higher than its opening price of .7470, eventually ending about 30 pips lower for the day.
No reports from New Zealand yesterday. As usual, risk sentiment continued to be the driving force behind the Kiwi and the rest of the comdolls. Unfortunately, these “riskier” currencies don’t fare too well in times of risk aversion.
The lone release for today is the ANZ commodity price report, which measures the change in prices of New Zealand’s exports. Since exports contribute to GDP, higher prices tend to benefit New Zealand and the Kiwi. Even though this report will probably take a backseat to risk sentiment, it may still trigger a mini bull run if it prints an upside surprise. Catch it at 2:00 am GMT!
Using the .7400 handle as a springboard, NZD/USD skyrocketed to an intraday high of .7512. It then inched down to close the day at .7494 with the com-doll bagging 57 pips!
Word on the street is that better-than-expected reports from Europe and China sparked risk appetite and sent growth-related currencies higher.
The commodity price report might have also helped the Kiwi pare its losses against the dollar when it showed that export prices increased by 4.5% in November. According to ANZ National Bank, the strong demand in Asia and Europe was the main reason why we saw a bigger uptick during the month than in October when the report only printed a 3.50% increase.
Our awesome economic calendar is blank for reports from New Zealand for the rest of the week. Boo!
But don’t worry! We have Australia’s trade balance and retail sales reports today which can help you with your Kiwi trades. Remember, the Aussie and Kiwi usually move alongside each other. Good luck!
Yo Kiwi! Teach me how to dougie! With risk appetite back in fashion, the Kiwi was lookin’ fresh yesterday as it found itself walking up the charts with swagger. NZD/USD ended the day at 1.7545 with a solid 51-pip gain.
Risk sentiment improved yesterday in light of talks of the ECB’s bond buying. Of course, this resulted in a pip-party for the Kiwi and its comdoll brethren, currencies that tend to rally in times when risk appetite is healthy.
If you’re looking to trade New Zealand news, you’ll have to wait until next week because we ain’t gettin’ no reports today, son! But the U.S. is set to publish its hard-hitting nonfarm payroll report at 1:30 pm GMT, and we all know how that has rocked NZD/USD in the past!
And with that, the Kiwi completed its comeback! Thanks to bad U.S. nonfarm payroll data, it was able to stage a strong rally, rising a total of 114 pips last Friday to end the week positive.
The rise in NZD/USD was because of USD weakness more than anything else though. New Zealand didn’t even publish any reports last Friday! And I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the economic docket will be light this week as well.
The only noteworthy event is the RBNZ rate decision scheduled on Wednesday. Don’t be surprised if the central bank decides to hold the official cash rate at 2.00% again. After all, New Zealand’s recovery is still on shaky ground, and inflation expectations are falling.
Now, that being the case, you still ought to stay tuned when the RBNZmakes its announcement at 8:00 pm GMT on Wednesday. It’s also due to hold its press conference and monetary policy statement at this time, so we might get plenty of action even if interest rates stay unchanged.
It didn’t take long for the Kiwi to slip from its opening price of .7652 and scream, “look down belooow!” NZD/USD hit rock-bottom at .7587 before ending the day a tad bit higher at .7618.
With the RBNZ, RBA, and BOC due to release their interest rate decisions this week, it’s not hard to imagine why traders stayed away from the com-dolls.
So you better make sure you keep tabs on what central bankers have to say! Note that the RBNZ will announce its decision tomorrow at 8:00 pm GMT. According to what my buddy Forex Gump wrote in his weekend blog, analysts are expecting rates to stay flat at 3.00%.
But don’t fret! If traders find RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard’s speech hawkish enough, the Kiwi may be able to rally against the dollar.
The currency may also be able to pare its loss later when data on the country’s manufacturing activity comes out at 9:45 pm GMT. If you’re planning to go long on NZD/USD you may want to keep your fingers crossed for a figure higher than the 3.1% uptick we saw in June.
After partying too hard on risk appetite booze earlier in the day, the Kiwi found itself with a hangover, puking pips all over the place. After testing weekly highs around .7650, NZD/USD bent over and coughed out almost 100 pips to end the day at .7578.
No biggies were released from New Zealand yesterday, but all that changes today, as our drinking buddies over at the RBNZ will be releasing the interest rate decision at 8:00 pm GMT. Rumors are that they will follow the RBA and BOC’s lead in pausing on any rate hikes and will be keeping the cash rate at 3.00%. Watch out though, for any drunken, dovish texts, as it may just send markets into a full-on bar room brawl!
Make that three for three! Once again, the Kiwi dropped for the third consecutive day, as it suffered thanks to some dovish comments by Mr. Alan Bollard, as well as weak commodity trading. After opening at .7577, NZD/USD dropped more than 100 pips to close at .7461.
While it was expected that the RBNZ would keep rates steady at 3.00%, RBNZ officials did leave us with a rather dovish statement. The central bank lowered their growth forecasts for 2011, as it now predicts that economy will show GDP growth of just 1.7%, down from the initial projections of 2.8%.
Furthermore, the RBNZ expressed concern about consumer spending and the state of the housing market. This indicates that Bollard and other central bank officials feel that the New Zealand economy is still prone to weakness, which is why they have to be careful in hiking rates too soon. I guess this means we won’t be seeing another rate hike any time soon!
It’ll be interesting to see whether we see another drop in NZD/USD today. As I said, it has dropped every single day this week – is it time for a mid week reversal?
After three straight days of decline, the Kiwi was finally able get its groove on and boom boom pow pips out of the dollar! NZD/USD closed the day 32 pips higher at .7493. Up top yo!
Economic gurus say that the stellar job report from Australia helped the Kiwi in yesterday’s trading. Of course, the better-than-expected terms of trade report for the third quarter was also a plus for the comdoll. It was reported that the prices of New Zealand’s internationally-traded goods and services were 3.0% higher during the third quarter and beat the consensus which was for a modest 1.7% increase.
As you probably know by now, a few market junkies are bracing for Chinese rate hike. So you may want to be careful in trading the Kiwi because if they’re right, the comdoll could end up in the bear lair!
The Kiwi was speeding on the fast lane up to its intraday high at .7530 when its rally came to an abrupt halt. Then, sha-bam! It was all downhill for NZD/USD, closing the day 12 pips lower at .7482.
So what caused the Kiwi to be the only one among the comdolls to lose against the greenback?
Word on the street is that the dovish comments of RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard during the bank’s rate statement on Wednesday still weighed down the currency.
Ah, and giving our mates in the RBNZ one more reason to push rate hikes further down their calendars could be the food price index for November. Earlier today we saw that prices of food and food services during the month fell by 0.6% after posting a 2.2% increase in October.
Hmmm, I wonder if the retail sales report for October will provide the Kiwi with some support on the charts. For a comeback to happen, we’re gonna have to see a figure better than the 0.8% decline that the market is anticipating. Make sure you don’t miss the report later at 9:45 pm GMT!
Whew! The Kiwi got away with New Zealand’s less-than-awesome economic reports yesterday when a solid round of risk appetite boosted the comdolls. NZD/USD peaked at an intraday high of .7577 before settling to 81 pips above its open price at .7552.
New Zealand’s retail sales dropped by 2.5% in October after clocking in a 1.7% growth in September. Meanwhile, sales excluding automobiles also disappointed with a 1.6% fall.
Apparently, consumers went on a shopping spree in September right before the Goods and Services Tax (GST) was increased on October 1. It weighed on 10 out of 15 industries in October, and dragged the retail report lower.
No economic report is on tap today to follow up on those disappointing figures, but keep close tabs on comdoll trading to see if the Kiwi can gain on the dollar for another day!
Mirror mirror on the wall, who’s the weakest comdoll of them all? With a 34-pip loss during yesterday’s trading, I bet your creepy, talking mirror will say that it’s the Kiwi. NZD/USD tumbled to its closing price at .7517 after it rallied to an intraday high of .7576.
October’s worse-than-expected retail sales report, which posted the largest decline in consumer spending in 13 years, came back to haunt the currency after the market seemed to have shrugged off the -2.5% reading on Monday.
Stay tuned for the Business NZ Manufacturing Index for November later at 11:30 pm GMT and see if it will be able to make the comdoll look pretty to traders. A 50.0 reading or higher would probably be bullish for the currency as this would indicate expansion in New Zealand’s manufacturing sector. Not to mention that it would be more awesome that its 49.7 reading in October.
Being one of the biggest losers against the dollar in yesterday’s trading, the Kiwi definitely didn’t feel so fly like a G6. It ended the day at its 2-month low at .7381 suffering a whopping 138-pip loss. Ouch!
So what got traders dumping their Kiwis?
Word on the street is that it was because of the Westpac Consumer Confidence report for the fourth quarter which printed its lowest reading since July 2009 at 108.3!
This might have upset the market so much that not even a positive manufacturing report was enough to convince traders to show the Kiwi some love. It was also reported yesterday that the Business NZ PMI for November was higher at 52.7 than its previous reading of 50.0, which was upwardly revised from 49.7.
Perhaps Kiwi investors might have gotten tired of seeing reports from New Zealand disappoint one after another.
See if today’s lineup will help the Kiwi on the charts. At 2:00 am GMT, the RBNZ will release the results of its own business confidence survey for December. Watch out for reading higher than its previous 33.2 figure in November as this could spur the currency into a rally!
It’s a tie! The Kiwi ended in a near draw against the Greenback yesterday despite the release of worse-than-expected economic data in New Zealand. NZD/USD reached its intraday levels at .7344 and .7407 before settling down with a 2-pip gain.
The Kiwi managed to pull a fast one on the Greenback despite the National Bank of New Zealand’s report that local businesses became less optimistic on their sales and profits for the next 12 months. The NBNZ business outlook report slipped from 33.2 in November to its 29.5 index figure in December. The report also showed that confidence was high in the retailing and manufacturing sectors, but down in agriculture, construction, and services.
No other reports are due for release this week, but keep an eye out for any economic reports that might affect comdoll trading!
Relatively tight trading for the Kiwi, which didn’t move too much over the latter half of last week. NZD/USD traded within a range of 75 pips last Friday, ending the day just 10 pips below its opening price. Could we see more of the same this week?
Seeing as how its a shortened week, we may not see any big moves this week. However, take note that current account and GDP figures will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. The current account report is expected to print a deficit of 2.33 billion NZD, while the GDP report is predicted to come in at quarterly growth of 0.1% for the 3rd quarter.
With the lower liquidity, any divergence from expectations could send the Kiwi in any direction, so be careful!
Taking cue from its comdoll sibling, the Kiwi rose up the charts and posted some decent gains against the dollar in spite of the tight trading we saw yesterday. NZD/USD finished 55 pips higher to finish trading at .7418. Could this set the tone for the rest of the shortened week?
Clearly, yesterday’s move was driven by stronger sentiment towards higher yielding currencies like the AUD and NZD. Notice the divergence on other currencies like EUR and GBP, which didn’t exactly hold their own against the dollar yesterday. Could this be a recurring theme in 2011?
For today though, watch out for any reversals, especially since we could have a catalyst on our hands in the form of current account data at 9:45 pm GMT. Word on the street is that the Kiwis posted a deficit of 2.23 billion NZD during the 3rd quarter, indicating weaker trade. If this report were to post a larger than expected deficit, could it spell doom and gloom for the NZD?
Facepalm! The Kiwi gave up most of its gains against the scrilla yesterday when mixed economic reports showed up in New Zealand. NZD/USD soared to an intraday high of .7484 before it dropping to its .7430 closing price.
Credit card spending showed a weaker growth in November at 3.8% after clocking in at 4.6% in October. Meanwhile, the country’s current deficit widened to 1.77 billion NZD, but not as much as the expected deficit of 2.27 billion NZD.
Let’s see if New Zealand’s economic data can wow the markets this time around when the GDP for the third quarter is released at 9:45 pm GMT. Market junkies are expecting a 0.1% growth from the second quarter’s 0.2% figure, but a higher figure just might give the Kiwi bulls an early Christmas present.
Say what?! The Kiwi bears partied in the pip streets yesterday when a report showed that the New Zealand economy surprisingly contracted in the third quarter. NZD/USD gave up 7 pips all the way to .7422 after it reached an intraday high of .7451.
New Zealand’s GDP surprisingly contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter after rising by 0.1% in the second quarter. Aside from weaknesses in the primary and goods-producing industries, the big earthquake that the country experienced earlier this year also took its toll on the economic growth. Good thing that the annualized figure remained in the positive territory at 1.4%.
No other report is scheduled from New Zealand this week, but don’t take your eyes off other economic reports that might affect comdoll trading!
Now that’s how you end the year with a bang! The last week of 2010 saw NZD/USD climb about 400 pips as the pair shot up in response to USD weakness. The question now is whether this strong rally will carry over into 2011.
With many New Zealand bankers out on vacation for most of last week, the Kiwi didn’t have much to move and groove to domestically.
The big move in NZD/USD was helped largely by the common belief that the global economy will be showing more signs of recovery in 2011. Way to look on the bright side, eh?
But all this optimism isn’t just because people were feeling the holiday spirit. It has solid fundamental backing. China, one of New Zealand’s largest trading partners, is expected to give the global growth a big boost this year. As a result, commodity prices have been picking up, taking the comdolls along for the ride.
Unfortunately, it looks like we’ve got another snoozer on our hands this week as no reports are scheduled for release again! Action may continue to be slow as market players trickle back into the markets this week. But as always, there will be opportunities to make pips. So stay sharp and let’s start this year right!