Yesterday, the Kiwi showed us all why it was named after a flightless bird. Without any support from economic data, NZD/USD dropped 62 pips to .8015, forming a bearish daily candlestick after Wednesday’s spinning top. Is the Kiwi really destined to fall?
So far, even better-than-expected trade balance figures have been unable to get the Kiwi to lift off! Earlier today, it was revealed that New Zealand’s trade surplus was wider than forecast. From 193 million NZD in February, its surplus expanded to 464 million NZD in March, instead of just 244 million NZD as economic fortunetellers had foretold.
Apparently, New Zealand has its cows to thank for March’s awesome performance! High dairy sales was played a big role in boosting exports in March.
No more reports for the rest of the day. In the meantime, be sure to track commodities as it tends to drive the Kiwi in the absence of data. It ain’t a called a “comdoll” for nothin’, ya know!
Friday turned out to be a very good day for NZD/USD as it was able to go beyond its highest level this year. The pair had climbed as high as .8109 intraday before it closed the week at .8093.
New Zealand’s trade balance had much to do with the pair’s rise. The report, which was released very early in the day, showed that exports surged in March and pushed the country’s trade surplus to 464 million NZD. The actual figure beat forecast by almost two times, and was a huge improvement from February’s figure.
The upcoming week will be a heavy one for the Kiwi since New Zealand is scheduled to release its quarterly employment data. The employment data is highly watched the market and has a huge impact on the Kiwi’s value.
The report will be released on Thursday and is expected to show that the unemployment rate dropped to 6.7% during the first quarter and that there was a 0.6% gain in the total number of employed people. Usually, better-than-figures cause the Kiwi to rise.
The Kiwi took a hit against the Greenback yesterday as the world’s most wanted terrorist, Osama bin Laden, was also hit. Oh okay, bad joke, but you get the idea. Osama’s death sent a positive wave to the dollar bulls, which sent NZD/USD 28 pips lower at .8066.
Let’s see if the positive salary and wages report will earn the Kiwi some lovin’ today. A report released a few Call of Duty sessions ago revealed that salary and wages in New Zealand rose by 1.9% for the first quarter, beating the 1.7% hike in last year’s fourth quarter.
If you’re looking for more economic data from New Zealand though, you’ll have to wait until 10:45 pm GMT when the building approvals report will be released along with the visitor arrivals report for March. Since tourism is a huge part of the New Zealand economy, Kiwi traders will be watching this figure closely to see if the industry has recovered from the earthquake that struck the country a couple of months ago.
The Kiwi had its wings clipped by risk aversion yesterday, forcing NZD/USD to plummet from the week open price of .8067 to last week’s low of .7970. Will it have a chance to fly again today?
Risk aversion, along with the RBA’s decision to keep rates on hold, caused the Kiwi to lose ground yesterday. Not even the freshly released building consents report from New Zealand was enough to lift the Kiwi’s spirits. The report showed a 2.2% increase in new building permits issued for March, much better than the 9.8% drop seen last February.
Today’s economic schedule gets a bit more exciting as New Zealand gears up to release its employment report at 10:45 pm GMT. The employment change figure is expected to be up by 0.6% for the first quarter of this year, an improvement over the 0.5% decline in hiring seen in the last quarter of 2010. If the actual figure meets expectations or comes in better than projected, it could bring New Zealand’s unemployment rate from 6.8% down to 6.7%. This could allow NZD/USD to bounce from the .8000 area so y’all better watch out for a comeback!
Kaboom! Despite a better-than-expected report from New Zealand, NZD/USD fell sharply for the third day in a row yesterday. The pair dropped to an intraday low of .7865 before capping the day with a 95-pip loss at .7903.
New Zealand’s unemployment rate in the first quarter fell to 6.6% against the last quarter’s 6.7%. Meanwhile, the country’s additional employment data also signaled a strengthening of the labor market, printing a 1.4% rise in the same quarter. Too bad the Greenback’s rally and risk aversion got in the way of the Kiwi bulls!
The economic boards are empty in New Zealand today, but keep an eye out for any reports that might shift commodity and risk sentiment. Who knows, maybe today is the day the Kiwi bulls charge!
Imagine the Kiwi’s disappointment when it found out that risk aversion extended its stay in the markets! NZD/USD fell 90 pips from its .7903 open price before ending the day at .7826. Will it be able to bounce back today?
New Zealand didn’t release any economic reports yesterday and the Kiwi wasn’t spared from the risk aversion bloodbath. Weak data from the U.K., euro zone, and the U.S., combined with some dovish statements from both the BOE and ECB, caused a sharp drop in commodities and higher-yielding currencies.
New Zealand’s economic schedule is empty for today, which means that the Kiwi could be vulnerable to risk sentiment again. Don’t forget that the U.S. NFP report is set for release today and this could rock the markets.
Who says size matters?? In the same way that my boy Manny Pacquiao gave Shane Mosley a beating yesterday, the Kiwi put the hurt on its larger counterpart last Friday. The Kiwi demolished the Greenback as it posted an 84-pip rise, bringing NZD/USD above the .7900 handle once again.
Kiwi traders scrambled to get their hands on the New Zealand currency after seeing the U.S.’s better-than-expected NFP figures. They just couldn’t get enough of it! Actually, it looked a lot like the Cyclopip household during mealtime!
The question is, is this the start of a legit reversal? Hmm… We might have to wait for this week’s reports to come out before we can answer that!
Starting off our week is the REINZ HPI report, which is due sometime today. Though its release probably won’t do much to move the Kiwi, it could help build momentum for Kiwi bulls if it can show a figure better than the previous 0.5% rise.
What we should really keep an eye out for is the RBNZ’s financial stability report. It’ll be interesting to see what the fellas at the RBNZ have to say considering their economy just BARELY avoided falling into a double-dip recession. This report only comes out twice a year, so don’t even think about missing it when it comes out tomorrow at 9:00 pm GMT.
Not bad! The Kiwi put up a good fight against the Greenback yesterday as risk aversion started to ease. Although NZD/USD ended the day 20 pips lower than its open price, it was able to find support at the .7900 handle.
New Zealand decided not to release any economic data yesterday while the RBNZ geared up to reveal its financial stability report at 9:00 pm GMT today. This report will provide an in-depth look at the central bank’s economic outlook, along with their inflation and growth forecasts. If the report shows that the RBNZ is bullish with their outlook, the Kiwi could grab the chance to climb back to its recent highs around .8100.
As always, don’t forget to keep tabs on any news events that could trigger a shift in risk sentiment!
Talk about dodging a bullet! The Kiwi narrowly escaped defeat against the Greenback as NZD/USD bounced back up from an intraday low of .7889 to end the day 2 pips higher at .7947.
New Zealand didn’t have any reports to support its currency yesterday, but lucky for Kiwi bulls, momentum was on their side. Led by the Loonie, the comdolls were able to extend their lead against the dollar on gains in commodities.
As for the RBNZ financial stability report that was published just a few hours ago… well, it hasn’t done much to move the markets yet! Maybe this is because the central bank was neither overly bullish or bearish in its assessment of the economy. While it believes NZ’s financial system is in a better position to support growth, it also thinks that there’s a lot of uncertainty and volatility involved.
On one hand, global economic recovery is broader and supportive of New Zealand’s economy, but on the other hand, global funding markets are just as fragile as ever!
Hmm… Maybe tonight’s reports can shed more light on the economy. At 10:30 pm GMT, the business NZ manufacturing index is due. If we see a figure much higher than the previous reading of 50.1, it would indicate strong expansion in the manufacturing sector and could push bulls to act.
Then at 10:45 pm GMT, we’ll take a look at the monthly FPI report, which measures changes in food prices. Cross your fingers for a figure higher than the previous reading of 0.3% if you’re looking to go long!
Yeouch! With risk aversion spurring on the safe havens, the Kiwi found itself flat on the ground. NZD/USD dropped 61 pips to finish the day at .7886. Will today be any different?
No data scheduled for release from my favorite vacation spot, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see some splashes in the market today. Watch out during the U.S. session, as retail sales and production price input data are on deck. If these reports come in far from expectations, it could cause major moves in the commodities market, which could affect NZD trading as well.
The Kiwi started off on a sour note as it edged lower against the Greenback during the Asian session. However, it put up a strong fight at the end of the day as NZD/USD rallied back up to the .7950 area. Let’s take a look at the upcoming set of economic events to find out whether we’ll see an upside breakout or if resistance below .8000 will hold.
Weak jobs data from New Zealand’s next door neighbor Australia weighed on the Kiwi yesterday. After all, much of New Zealand’s trade and economic activities are closely linked to the Land Down Under. Make sure you read my economic commentary on Australia to find out how their employment data turned out to be a huge disappointment.
New Zealand’s economic schedule is empty for today but that doesn’t mean the Kiwi’s movement will be any less exciting. A couple of red flags are due from the U.S. today and these could have a significant impact on risk sentiment, which would determine whether the Kiwi could end the week on a strong note or not. Check out my U.S. economic commentary as well before you take any trades today!
And the consolidation continues! Just like it did for the most of last week, NZD/USD stayed within a tight range of about 120 pips. By the end of the day, NZD/USD was down 82 pips at .7873, but still above key support at .7850.
With traders still unwinding their position in riskier assets, it’s no surprise that the Kiwi found itself lower on Friday. As long as commodities trading remains subdued, don’t expect to see any strong rallies in Kiwi trading.
No top tier reports coming out today, so we may see more range like trading. Watch out though, as U.S. Fed Chairman Ben “The Big Boss” Bernanke will be speaking about jobs growth and economic growth at around 1:00 pm GMT. No, he won’t be speaking about interest rates but still watch out for his tone. You never know, he might accidently say something that will rock the markets!
Just when you thought the Kiwi was going to spend the day chillin’ like a villain at the .7850 psychological handle, it suddenly drops almost a hundred pips against the dollar to its intraday low at .7755. It then pared its losses but at the end of the day, NZD/USD was still 31 pips lower from its opening price at .7818.
What got it sold off? It was none other than risk aversion. From what I’ve heard, the Kiwi fell when equities started to weaken in reaction to developments (or the lack thereof) in Euro Zone’s sovereign crisis.
With our forex calendar still blank for reports from New Zealand, you may want to make sure you gauge market sentiment first before pulling the trigger. You wouldn’t want to get burned, would you?
It ain’t how you start the date, it’s how you finish it! After having a slow start, the Kiwi bulls picked up their game in the U.S. session and pushed NZD/USD higher for the day. The pair tested as low as .7764 in intraday trading before closing at .7839, marking a 21 pip gain.
The good vibes continued earlier today, as producer price input data came in much higher than anticipated. The PPI was expected to show that producers paid 0.9% more for their raw materials during the first quarter of the year. However, it turns out that companies paid 2.2% more for their goodies, which could be a signal that prices could rise in the coming months.
Remember, companies normally pass on additional costs to us poor consumers to pay. Thus, if they are paying more, consumer good prices are more likely to rise, which will lead to stronger inflation. And we all know what strong inflation leads to – potential rate hikes! That’s why the Kiwi got a nice boost earlier this morning.
Now, I don’t think the RBNZ will be raising rates anytime soon, but I’ll be keeping an eye out for future data regarding inflation. You never know when the RBNZ will change its stance!
Let’s flyyy… Up, up, here we go! The Kiwi flew up the charts during yesterday’s trading thanks to stronger-than-expected inflation figures. At the end of the day, NZD/USD was perched 45 pips higher at .7884 from its opening price.
It was reported earlier on in the day that the PPI ticked higher in Q1 2011. The input component of the report showed that the price of goods and materials bought by manufacturers increased by 2.2%, beating both the forecast and February’s reading of 0.9%.
Meanwhile, the price of products sold by manufacturers increased by 1.7%, more than eight times the growth we saw in Q1 2010 at 0.2%. Analysts had only predicted a 0.6% uptick.
Consequently, the report has spurred talks of interest rate hikes from the RBNZ!
For today we only have New Zealand’s Annual Budget on tap for the Kiwi. Make sure you read up on what the government’s budget for the year is. More cuts in government spending could send the Kiwi trading lower.
After the its stellar performance on Wednesday, NZD/USD decided to just chill in the charts and trade within an 80-pip range yesterday. The pair topped out and found resistance at .7938 and encountered major support at the .7860. At the end of the day, the pair sat at .7904, just 20 pips higher from its opening price during the Asian trading session.
The Annual Budget report from New Zealand’s government was a non-event, as it produced very few surprised. It revealed that debt was marginally higher, but did not really put New Zealand’s “AAA” credit rating in danger. As for the outlook, it was pretty much stable.
Since nothing really important happened in New Zealand yesterday, who could blame the Kiwi traders from taking a step back from the market?
The Kiwi’s price action today will probably be similar to yesterday, as the forex calendarlacks high-profile economic reports. Keep an eye yesterday’s highs and lows, as they could very well hold!
The Kiwi stood out among the comdolls in Friday’s trading as it scored its fourth consecutive win against the dollar. After opening at .7904, NZD/USD hustled to test the .8000 handle before ending the day at .7973.
Looking back, I think it might have been the positive reports that allowed the Kiwi to stack up its gains against the dollar to a total of 124 pips for the week.
Data for April showed that visitor arrivals increased by 8.2%,erasing the 8.0% decline we saw in March. Note that tourism plays a big part in New Zealand’s economy and the pickup in activity indirectly has a positive effect on the GDP.
The credit card spending report for the same month must have also been bullish for the currency. It showed that credit card transactions for April increased by more than three times the uptick we saw in March when it came in at 6.0%.
Although these are only third-tier reports, they nonetheless support the thesis that New Zealand’s economy is improving.
I wonder how the Kiwi will do today given that our forex calendar is blank for reports from the country. Hmmm, it may be best for you to be on your toes for changes in market sentiment as this would probably dictate the currency’s moves. Keep in mind that it usually rallies when risk appetite is in full-swing.
In the forex market, a currency can number one on the market’s buy list one day and be down in the dumps in the next. The Kiwi showed this yesterday, as it lost across the board after its stellar rally last Friday. NZD/USD was trading at .7910 by the end of the U.S. trading session, a good 30 pips lower from its week open price.
Market participants pointed to the weak Chinese PMI and continued risk aversion due to the Greek debt debacle as the main reasons for the Kiwi’s decline yesterday. The Chinese PMI printed a reading of 51.1, its weakest reading in 10 months and lower than the previous month’s 51.8.
Nothing was released by New Zealand yesterday, but we’ll see the country’s report on inflation expectations at 3:00 am GMT later today. Last quarter, the report was at 2.6% for the third straight time. If the actual result later comes in higher than that, it could be bullish for the Kiwi and enable the currency to recuperate its losses.
Up, up, here we go! Yesterday NZD/USD capped the day with a 38-pip gain at .7977 when the comdolls pared back some of their losses against the Greenback. Of course, it didn’t hurt that New Zealand released a positive economic report!
Though no major reports produced the crazy comdoll price action we saw yesterday, New Zealand’s inflation expectations last quarter edged up by 3.0%, beating the previous quarter’s 2.6% estimates. The data indicated that New Zealand business managers expect inflation to rise over the next two years, with a few interest rate increases over the next 12 months. The hawkish predictions helped push the Kiwi higher in the charts at a time when its other comdoll buddies were also enjoying a brief risk rally.
The economic boards in New Zealand are empty again today, but make sure you keep close tabs on risk appetite, aight? We might see a midweek reversal hit our trades if we don’t stay glued to the tube!
The Kiwi was left out in yesterday’s party as it was unable to make significant gains over the dollar like other major currencies. NZD/USD found itself trading at .7988 by the end of the U.S. trading session, which was merely 12 pips higher from its opening price that day.
Earlier, however, NZD/USD staged a stellar rally due to a very positive report from New Zealand’s close Tasman neighbor, Australia. Australia’s private capital expenditure report came in at 3.4%, significantly better than the 2.8% rise initially predicted.
Nothing coming out of New Zealand today, so it will be best to pay attention to data coming out of the U.S… Keep a close eye on the U.S. preliminary GDP report, as it will most likely have a strong impact on NZD/USD’s price action.