The New Zealand dollar went down, and boy, did it go down hard! NZD/USD practically erased one week’s worth of rallying as the pair dove 134 pips down to .8210. That’s a 2% drop against the Greenback! And the selloff doesn’t look like it’s over yet, either!
The usual culprit was behind the Kiwi’s fall - risk aversion! Once again, risk sentiment turned sour as concerns about global growth escalated and took its toll on equities and commodities. And we all know the Kiwi is called a comdoll for a reason. Where commodities go, you can expect it to follow!
So far, the bearish momentum on NZD/USD is carrying the pair lower. Considering the strength of yesterday’s move and the fact that New Zealand has no big reports to support the Kiwi, the pair may just continue falling until the weekend arrives. Still, it’s best to trade according to risk sentiment as it was clearly the main market driver yesterday. Be safe out there, kids! Don’t forget your stops!
Make that two in a row! After it looked like the Kiwi was gonna stage a comeback, it sank late last Friday to post a 29-pip loss and closed at .8181.
This week, we’ve got two red flags coming up for New Zealand on our economic calendar.
First, inflation expectations are coming out early tomorrow at 3:00 am GMT. Last quarter, inflation expectations were pegged at 3.0%. Keep an eye out for the release tomorrow, as a figure above 3.0% could give the RBNZ reason to reconsider raising rates sooner rather later.
On Wednesday, quarterly retail sales data will be available. Word is that sales growth was at 0.6% for the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] quarter, a slight dip from the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] quarter’s 0.9% figure. A stronger than expected figure could boost the Kiwi and allow it to recapture some of its losses from late last week.
What a great day to be a comdoll! Thanks to a rally in commodities, the Kiwi finished as one of yesterday’s best performers. After hitting an intraday low of .8161, NZD/USD rallied to close 67 pips higher on the day at .8246.
Together with its comdoll brethren, the Kiwi was able to rise above the USD during yesterday’s trading. It seems risk appetite improved just enough to incite a rally in commodities, which in turn, helped give the comdolls a lift.
If you’re looking to trade NZD/USD today, then you can’t miss the quarterly inflation expectations report! The last time this came out, it showed that residents of New Zealand expect prices to rise by 3.0% over the next two years. Should we see a higher figure this time around, it could spark another Kiwi rally. After all, inflation expectations have a tendency to turn into real inflation.
On a roll baby! The Kiwi posted its second win in a row, riding the strong risk rally yesterday. NZD/USD finished at .8322, up 51 pips for the day. Boo yeah!
As it turns out that, inflation expectations aren’t as hot as they were last quarter. A report yesterday showed that people expect a rise in prices of just 2.9% over the next two years, down from the 3.0% expectations last quarter. Nevertheless, this is still something to keep an eye on down the line as it could signal what direction the central will take with regards to monetary policy.
In other news, we got a nice surprise from trade balance figures, as New Zealand posted a surplus of 129 million NZD, which was the complete opposite from the expected 124 million NZD deficit. Apparently, dairy exports boosted the total figure to give New Zealand its first July surplus in 20 years. That’s right folks – dairy products.
For today, we’ve got quarterly retail sales figures coming in at 10:45 pm GMT. Expectations are that headline sales growth for the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] quarter was at 0.6%, while core figures, which don’t include automobiles and oil, was at 0.7%. Any deviations from this figure could lead to a spike in Kiwi trading, so be careful out there buddy!
What a bummer! Despite a stellar trade balance report, the Kiwi ended the day 70 pips lower against the dollar at .8279 in yesterday’s trading.
It was reported yesterday that exports outpaced imports by 129 million NZD in July and topped the forecast which was for a trade deficit of 124 million NZD. It must have been a heartbreaker for Kiwi bulls that the the first trade surplus we’ve seen from [New Zealand](http://www.babypips.com/school/new-zealand.html) in twenty years wasn’t able to offset the dollar’s strength.
However, digging a little deeper into the report I saw that despite the surplus, both exports and imports softened during the month.
I wonder if the market will still ignore the better-than-expected [retail sales](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Retail_Sales) report we saw earlier today. According to Statistics New Zealand, consumer spending picked up in Q2 2011 with the headline retail sales figure coming in at 0.9%, topping the 0.6% forecast. Meanwhile, the core reading printed at 1.0% and overshot the 0.7% consensus.
Thanks to positive data, the Kiwi was off to a good start in yesterday’s trading, reaching an intraday high at .8330. However, it started to lose its hustle during the New York session, ending the day at .8267 with a 13-pip loss.
It was reported yesterday that consumer spending picked up in New Zealand during Q2 2011. The headline retail sales figure came in higher than the 0.6% forecast at 0.9%. Meanwhile, excluding volatile items, the core retail sales report printed at 1.0% and topped expectations for a 0.7% uptick.
Too bad for the Kiwi bulls, the better-than-expected data was not enough to offset the negative vibes from falling commodities. With that said and given that we don’t have any economic data on tap from New Zealand, make sure you keep close tabs on market sentiment in today’s trading. Keep in mind that the currency usually rallies when risk appetite is in play.
And with that, the Kiwi ends the week on a strong note! The Kiwi put up its biggest gains in two weeks against the USD as NZD/USD climbed 132 pips to finish at .8399.
Buoyed by USD weakness, NZD/USD lifted off to infinity and beyond! The Kiwi was able to do this even without the support of New Zealand data as a rally in commodities helped spur it higher.
The best part is, it’s still at it! As of this moment, NZD/USD is still climbing higher and is now a good number of pips above the .8400 major psychological handle. It seems the bullish momentum on the Kiwi has carried over the weekend… but how long will it last?
Well, one thing’s for certain: more bulls may turn up to lift the Kiwi if today’s building permits data (due 10:45 pm GM) comes in better than expected. If July can outdo June’s 1.4% decline, it would probably result in a mini rally in NZD/USD.
Until then, keep your eyes on risk sentiment and commodities! The Kiwi isn’t a comdoll for nothing, you know!
It appears that leftover risk appetite from the optimistic Jackson Hole Symposium continued to dominate the market yesterday. As always, this proved beneficial for NZD/USD. By the end of the U.S. trading session, NZD/USD was trading at .8451, a good 54 pips higher from its day open price.
Then, earlier today, the Kiwi was able to rally again due to a positive building consents report. The report showed a whopping 13.0% rise, a huge increase from the previous month’s 1.0% decline. According to the report, the huge jump was mostly the result of non-residential consents soaring by 17%.
New Zealand’s economic calendar has nothing left in store for us today, but don’t expect the Kiwi to just stand still! There will be a couple of important news reports from the U.S. due later that could indirectly affect the Kiwi’s price action. Stay tuned for those!
The Kiwi showcased its inner Maori warrior in yesterday’s trading as it spooked pips out of the dollar. NZD/USD ended the day 98 pips above its opening price at .8549.
Talk around the hood is that the Kiwi benefited from optimism surrounding New Zealand’s recovery spurred by the government post-earthquake stimulus measures. The building consents report released yesterday also supported this thesis when the report for July showed that the number of approvals surged by 13.0% after printing a 1.0% contraction in June.
However, it seems like businessmen aren’t so giddy about the economy. The NBNZ business confidence index for August came in at 34.4 following the 47.6 reading we saw for July. Yikes!
Our forex calendar is blank for high-caliber reports from New Zealand today, so you may want to get a feel of market sentiment before deciding which trades to take. Keep in mind that the Kiwi usually rallies when risk appetite picks up.
Talk about a wild one! NZD/USD was unable to find a clear direction as it bounced around a clear sideways range yesterday. The pair found significant support around the .8505-.8515 area and major resistance at .8570. By the end of the U.S. trading session, the pair was merely 24 pips lower.
The lack of economic releases from New Zealand and the mixed results on U.S. reports was probably the reason behind the Kiwi’s lack of direction. The ADP’s version of the NFP came out worse than expected, but the Chicago PMI and Factory Orders report both beat forecast.
New Zealand’s forex calendar has nothing in store for us today, so turn to U.S. data instead to determine where the Kiwi is headed.
Not even China’s positive data can save the Kiwi! Unlike its fellow comdolls the Kiwi failed to rally against the Greenback yesterday. NZD/USD fell for a second day in a row, clocking in a 13-pip loss at .8509. What the heck happened?
Apparently, comdoll investors didn’t like it that New Zealand printed a weaker-than-expected report. Although the terms of trade data showed decreasing import prices and increasing prices, the numbers were a bit weaker than markets had expected. Talk about high expectations!
Let’s see if the Kiwi can get some supporters today. While New Zealand’s economic board is empty today, traders will be at the edge of their seats for the big NFP report, which usually causes volatility in all the currency pairs after it is released. Make sure you watch for it too!
There wasn’t anything on New Zealand’s economic calendar, but that didn’t stop the Kiwi from dropping! No thanks to risk aversion due to the poor non-farm payrolls figures, the Kiwi experienced losses versus the Greenback last Friday as it closed the day 51-pips lower.
The highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report showed that a net number of [B]ZERO[/B] jobs were added in August, a huge disappointment from the 74,000 increase initially expected. At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1%.
No data release this week so the Kiwi’s movement may not be as volatile as last week. Still, be careful with your trading as the forex market never runs out of surprises!
Who says it ends at strike three? For the fourth day in a row the Kiwi fell against the Greenback amidst the risk aversion in markets. NZD/USD ended up falling by 128 pips to .8319 and even hit an intraday low of .8293. So much for Ki-WIN!
No reports were released from New Zealand yesterday, but traders got busy shorting high-yielding comdolls like the Kiwi as concerns in the euro zone and U.S. economies loomed over markets.
New Zealand’s economic board will be empty again today, but you should stay glued to the tube for news that might impact risk sentiment. You wouldn’t want any surprises in your trades, would you?
And just like that, the Kiwi’s losing streak continues! The New Zealand dollar chalked up another day of losses against the Greenback and extended its losing streak to five days. NZD/USD opened 19 pips above the .8319 handle but sank to a low of .8206 and closed at .8220. Is it going for six days in the red?
New Zealand didn’t release any economic reports yesterday but a fresh wave of risk aversion, combined with the SNB’s announcement to peg its currency to the euro, triggered a strong round of U.S. dollar buying. It didn’t help that data from Australia, New Zealand’s next door neighbor, fell short of expectations. You might want to check out my Australian economic roundup to find out which reports disappointed.
Only the quarterly manufacturing sales report is on New Zealand’s schedule for today, but this report isn’t expected to make a huge impact on the Kiwi. Recall that manufacturing sales were up by 2.9% during the first quarter of 2010, a tad lower than the 3.1% increase seen in the previous quarter. A figure lower than 2.95 for the second quarter of 2010 would imply that manufacturing sales are on a downtrend, which could be bearish for the Kiwi. Stay on your toes!
With New Zealand’s economic docket empty yesterday, NZD/USD was exposed to risk appetite flows. Risk appetite in markets sent the pair to an intraday high of .8326 before it capped the day with a 83-pip gain at .8304. Boo yeah!
There won’t be any economic report coming out from New Zealand again today, but keep close tabs on reports scheduled from the other comdoll-related economies. Australia, one of New Zealand’s largest trading partners, just released its weak employment figures, so you better watch out for any spillover effects in the next few sessions!
Even with risk aversion weighing on the markets, the New Zealand dollar managed to stay afloat versus the dollar. The Kiwi closed yesterday at .8318, marking a 15-pip gain on the day. Can the Kiwi fly higher to end the week?
No data on tap today, so make sure y’all keep an eye on risk sentiment. Also, traders may choose to book some profits before the end of the week, so don’t be surprised if we see some wild moves at the end of the New York session.
And the Kiwi’s luck finally runs out! After swimming against the tide of risk sentiment on Thursday, the Kiwi finally gave in and dropped on risk aversion on Friday. As a result, NZD/USD finished 108 pips lower at .8210.
Phew! It seems risk aversion was just too much to bear for the Kiwi. It held its ground well enough on Thursday, but it couldn’t hold its ground any longer. Risk aversion finally got the best of it as all of the comdolls ended the week on a low note.
Today, the only noteworthy report is the REINZ HPI report, which last printed a 0.6% decline. Though this report probably won’t do much to move the market on its own, you ought to keep an eye on it just in case its results deviate greatly from the previous month’s figure.
Over the coming days, it’ll be important to keep track of the Kiwi’s actions. The RBNZ is scheduled to hold its rate decision on Wednesday, and this could set off fireworks on NZD/USD. So until then, be sure to keep a close eye on NZD/USD’s price action! The market may just decide to price in expectations before the big day. Good luck!
It’s a tie, fellas! The Kiwi and the Greenback duked it out yesterday, causing NZD/USD to swing to a high of .8240 and a low of .8120, but ended right back where it started at .8223. Take a look at today’s data to see whether the Kiwi could have the upper hand.
New Zealand reported that its food price index dropped by 1.3% in August as fruit and vegetable prices slipped by 5.9% during the month. Although this was weak in comparison to the 2.0% increase seen last July, the food price index was still up by 6.6% from a year ago. Aside from that, New Zealand also printed a 2.1% quarterly increase in manufacturing sales for the second quarter of 2011. This was also weaker in comparison to the previous quarter, even though that period’s figure was revised downwards from 2.9% to show a 2.7% increase. Not bad, but not too good either.
Today, only the REINZ house price index is on New Zealand’s schedule. The report showed a 0.6% drop in house prices last July and could post another decline for August. If it does, the Kiwi could be forced to give in to the U.S. dollar but might have a chance to rally if the report prints a rebound. Stay tuned for the actual figure tentatively scheduled for release soon.
Baby steps, Kiwi, baby steps! The Kiwi managed to take another small step up against the Greenback yesterday as NZD/USD rose 25 pips on the day. Is it finally gaining momentum?
As evidenced by a surge in equities, risk appetite was up yesterday… and y’all know Kiwi bulls love to rally in times of risk taking! But aside from the risk-on environment, the Kiwi also found support from a healthy REINZ HPI report, which indicated that house prices increased by 0.5% last month, following a 0.6% decrease in July.
Today, we have more serious matters to discuss as the RBNZ is scheduled to hold its rate statement and press conference at 9:00 pm GMT. Though the central bank is widely expected to sit on its hands and keep interest rates at 2.50%, we could see a lot of movement on NZD/USD.
Word on the street is that there’s a chance that the RBNZ may adopt a bullish tone when it discusses the economic outlook for New Zealand. Some analysts were even bold enough to say that it may raise interest rates by 0.50% within the next 12 months! But of course, given the economic uncertainty surrounding the markets these days, Governor Alan Bollard could very well announce a wait-and-see approach in the meantime.
In any case, whatever the boys of the RBNZ have to say will give us a clearer picture of what to expect over the next few months, so be sure to tune in!
So much for gaining momentum! The Kiwi took another step back yesterday, as it hit an intraday low at .8142 before closing at .8207, down 41 pips for the day. Could NZD/USD be headed for more losses today?
If you take a look at the charts, you’ll see that the Kiwi has started the day off on the wrong foot, as it’s already trading near yesterday’s lows!
Earlier, the RBNZ announced its decision to keep rates steady and expressed no rush to raise rates anytime soon. It seems that Governor Alan Bollard and his merry men are just as concerned about the state of the global recovery as everybody else!
Take note that one of the major reasons why the Kiwi has been on a steady rise so far this year is due to interest rate expectations. Now that the RBNZ ain’t so ready to raise rates anymore, the New Zealand dollar may be just as susceptible to risk aversion flows as other higher yielding currencies.
No more news on tap for today, but keep an eye out for data coming out from other countries as this could dictate risk sentiment. Good luck trading!