Thanks to some positive news from the euro zone, the Swissy was able to regain some of its losses last Friday. The USDCHF closed out the day at 1.1086, roughly 30 pips lower from its opening price during the Asian session.
The good news I’m talking about was the approval of the German parliament to give Greece 22.4 billion EUR worth of loans. Hopefully, the bailout funds from both the European Union and the International Monetary Fund would start a new, but much happier chapter in Greece’s debt drama series.
Data from Switzerland also helped the Swissy garner some much needed support. The unemployment report showed that joblessness in Switzerland fell to 4.0% in April from 4.1% in March. Meanwhile, the country’s retail sales report revealed a 4.5% increase in March, which was a huge jump from the revised down 2.7% rise seen in February.
I see no real red flags on Switzerland’s economic calendar this week so the Swissy’s price action would most likely be dictated risk sentiment flows and data coming out of the euro zone. If debt concerns start hogging the spotlight again, expect to see the Swissy to fall.
The Swissy followed the euro’s lead, stepping ahead of dollar early in yesterdays trading session, before stumbling to the finish line. The franc finally ended up on the losing end, with the USDCHF closing at 1.1113.
With the franc being highly correlated to the euro, its no surprise that the franc went for a wild ride yesterday. As long as concerns regarding the EU/IMF bailout package remain, we can probably expect franc trading to bob its head to the beat of risk sentiment over the next couple of weeks.
Watch out later today, as SNB Chairman Philipp Hildebrand will be holding a press conference along with IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss – Kahn at Zurich. Chances are, the two could drop some comments regarding the bailout package. In any case, make sure you have your forex seat belts on, as we could see some volatile swings if any surprising comments are made!
For almost an entire day, the USDCHF was stranded in a tight 50-pip range as it paced back and forth between 1.1080 and 1.1130. But when Switzerland released a surprisingly strong economic report, the Swissy caught a few more gains against the greenback.
Switzerland’s SECO consumer climate report showed that Swiss consumers were much more upbeat with their economic outlook. The reading for the 3-month period starting in February landed at 14, up from the previous reading of -7. This outpaced expectations as the huge improvement in sentiment was spurred by the pickup in the Swiss labor market.
Today, Switzerland is set to release its PPI reading for April. Producer prices are expected to climb by 0.4% during the month after seeing a 0.5% increase in March. As a leading indicator of consumer inflation, another uptick could signal that inflationary pressures remain strong. A better than expected result could provide support for the Swissy.
The USDCHF went on snooze mode yesterday, moving sideways all throughout the three trading sessions. The pair ended the US trading session at 1.1111, just eight pips higher from its Asian session opening price.
Switzerland’s producer price index released yesterday showed a 0.6% rise in prices April-on-March, beating forecast by 0.2%. The result was also an improvement from the previous month’s increase of 0.5%.
Today, Swiss bankers will be out on holiday so don’t expect any economic reports. Still, keep an eye out for economic data and news coming out of other major economies, as it could indirectly affect the Swissy’s price action.
With the franc being highly correlated to the euro, it took a hit in trading as euro zone issues continued to weigh heavily on traders mindsets. This caused traders to shift their positions towards the dollar, which left other majors like the franc in the dust.
No major news has been released in Switzerland as of late, but as usual, Swissy trading has been influenced by shifts in risk sentiment. With the markets focusing in on developments on the EU / IMF, this is what we should all be looking at as well! Watch out for any strong moves today, especially during the US session when retail sales data is due.
Tough luck! After desperately trying to stay resilient, the Swissy eventually gave way to greenback strength last Friday. The 1.1150 level soon broke as the USDCHF surged to a high of 1.1332.
With no Swiss economic reports on deck, risk aversion and strong US data forced the Swissy to bow down to the mighty greenback. Would it be able to get back on its feet this week?
Looking at the economic calendar, it looks like the Swissy won’t have much data to draw strength from. No economic reports are due today but SNB Chairman Philipp Hildebrand is set to testify about the outlook for the Swiss economy. Keep your ears open for hints on the central bank’s next monetary policy moves during his speech at 4:00 pm GMT.
Its only economic report for the week, the ZEW economic expectations, is due Thursday 9:00 am GMT. After dipping from 53.8 to 53.4 in April, the index could rebound in May and provide support for the Swissy. Also that day, SNB Governing Board member Thomas Jordan is scheduled to talk about monetary policy and its impact on the economy. Stay tuned for that at 2:00 pm GMT!
After three consecutive days of losses, the Swissy was able to take a breather yesterday. The USDCHF kicked off the week with a strong rally and attempted to pierce through the 1.1400 handle. The move turned out to be unsustainable though, as the pair soon reversed its gains to end the US trading session at 1.1315.
Has the Swissy reached a temporary bottom? Have short Swissy positions finally reached extreme levels? With the Swissy posting its first gain in the last four days, this could be a sign of a potential retracement…
In any case, Switzerland’s economic calendar presents nothing worth mentioning today, so expect the Swissy’s direction to be primarily dictated by news coming out of the euro zone. If you’re going to trade the Swissy today, pay special attention to euro zone’s consumer price index and the German ZEW economic sentiment survey. These reports tend to have a hefty impact on the euro, which could indirectly cause the Swissy to move as well.
So much for taking a breather! Once again, the Swissy took a beating as the dollar soared higher across the board. The USDCHF pair hit a new 2010 high at 1.1516 and finished the day at 1.1471.
With equities selling off like ice cones on a hot summer day, it was clear that risk aversion took its toll on the markets. This was clear in both the EUR and CHF, which both hit new lows versus the dollar. As long as all these uncertainty plagues the market, we could see traders do what they do after watching a Nightmare on Elms street – run for cover under the USD blanket!
Nothing good on the Swissy economic tube today, but don’t forget to switch on over to the USD channel at 6:00 pm GMT. The Fedwill be releasing the minutes of the most recent monetary policy meeting. Many traders keep an eye out for this report, because it highlights what the Fed is focusing in on and could give insight as to what direction the Fed will take in coming months. In any case, watch out for any big moves should we hear any surprise statements.
Yikes! Did the SNB intervene in the currency markets again? After lingering around the 1.4000 handle for a while, the EURCHF suddenly spiked by almost 500 pips in the past two days.
Switzerland’s foreign reserves revealed that their central bank once again injected huge capital stimulus in the markets by selling 28.7 billion CHF last month. However, the SNB didn’t give any comments regarding this alleged currency intervention move. Still, I recall SNB President Hildebrand saying something about acting in a “decisive manner” if necessary. Could they be gearing up for some more currency intervention?
Meanwhile, results of the ZEW economic expectations survey in Switzerland revealed that sentiment turned sour in May. The reading dipped from 53.4 to 40.5, indicating that investors and analysts are pessimistic with their economic outlook for Switzerland. As a leading indicator of economic health, this weak sentiment could pave the way for a downturn in economic activity, which could cause the Swissy to fall further.
No economic reports are due from Switzerland today but keep your eyes and ears open for possible surprise moves by the SNB. Be careful out there!
Did someone hit the snooze button on the Swissy? It looks the risk of the SNB intervening again is preventing currency traders from putting on position on the USDCHF. The pair ended Friday at risks of currency intervention 1.1491, barely changed from its opening price of 1.1507 that day.
For this week, the important report to keep an eye for is the KOF economic barometer that will be released on Friday. The report, which is designed to predict the direction of Switzerland’s economy for the next six months, is expected to print a reading of 2.04 for May, up the 1.99 reading seen the month before. If it comes in higher, we could see the Swissy regain some of its losses.
The USDCHF edged slightly higher thanks to some renewed dollar strength, but it wasn’t enough to completely bust out of its range. With the pair now trading a hair above the 1.1600 handle, what could be in store for us today?
The only piece of data coming out today is the UBS consumption indicator index. Last month, the index posted its highest score in two years at 1.71. Will today’s release show a similar figure? If it does, it may keep the franc from experiencing more losses versus the dollar.
Finally! The USDCHF pair was able to bust out of its range yesterday as risk aversion prodded the greenback higher. However, the pair’s rally seemed to lose steam as it slid back below the 1.1600 level during the US session.
Fresh concerns from the euro zone, this time from Spain and not the usual culprit Greece, and the ongoing tension in Korea allowed risk aversion to dominate. Not even the rebound in Switzerland’s UBS consumption indicator was able to provide the Swissy support. The reading climbed from 1.68 to 1.76 in April, reflecting an improvement in Switzerland’s consumer sector.
No economic reports are due from Switzerland today, which could mean that the Swissy is once again vulnerable to changes in risk sentiment. If risk aversion extends its stay in the market, the USDCHF could zoom past yesterday’s high of 1.1697.
As expected, the absence of economic reports yesterday kept the Swissy bouncing its intraday highs and lows yesterday. The USDCHF closed the US trading session at 1.1595, barely changed from its Asian session opening price of 1.1572.
For the mean time, it looks like the usual inverse correlation between the USDCHF and the EURUSD is broken. We saw this yesterday, when the EURUSD found itself falling over a cliff while the USDCHF stayed comparatively calm and within range.
No important data coming out of Switzerland today, so keep a close eye on the preliminary estimate on US’s GDP to determine where the Swissy is headed today!
With the dollar bulls taking a day off, the franc was able to post some decent gains versus the dollar as the USDCHF closed at 1.1565. Can the franc keep up its good fortune? We shall have to wait and see!
After a week in the ice box, we could see some strong moves in franc trading today, as trade balance data and the KOF economic barometer index are due today.
Early estimates are saying that Switzerland posted a surplus of 2.17 billion CHF last April, which would be a nice improvement over the previous month’s figure of 2.01 billion CHF. It’ll be interesting to see whether this can continue in following months, considering all the weakness in Switzerland’s major trading partners (ahem, euro zone countries).
The KOF index is also expected to show improvement, with analysts projecting that the index will rise from a reading of 1.99 to 2.04. This would indicate improving economic conditions. If this report comes in much better than expected, it may just give the franc another lift in todays trading.
"Nope, not yet,” said the Swissy bears last Friday when news broke out that Fitch decided to downgraded Spain’s sovereign credit rating. The currency finished the week at 1.1592 against the dollar and 1.4225 versus the euro.
Traders have been very edge when it comes to any debt news from the euro zone, and last Friday’s event was no different. Fitch’s downgrade of Spain’s credit rating to AA+ from AAA sent currency traders and investors scurrying away from euro-related assets like the Swissy into the dollar and yen.
Better-than-expected economic data from Switzerland was unable to keep the Swissy afloat. The KOF Barometer, which is designed to predict the direction of Switzerland’s economy by using a combination of several economic indicators, revealed a reading of 2.16 figure. This was its strongest reading since August 2006.
Due to an unexpected rise in exports, Switzerland’s trade balance surplus widened to 2.02 billion CHF. The 11.5% increase in exports was largely due to strong demand for Swiss watches from the emerging economies like China and Hong Kong. Hmm, with growing economies developing a taste for luxury, it looks the Swiss won’t have to worry about their exports getting more expensive than the competition.
Too bad the Swiss National Bank thinks otherwise. The Swiss economy’s good performance added to the pressure for SNB to hike rates, but hiking rates would also make the Swissy more expensive. What will be their decision? We’ll know on June 17.
We can get some clues on their decision when Switzerland’s GDP and retail sales report publishes this week. Increasing GDP and retail sales signal healthy spending and a healthy economy, which can lead to a rise in interest rates.
I’m sure it comes as no surprise that the newswires were once again silent in Switzerland yesterday. yawn! The snooze-fest continued on the charts as the USDCHF traded with a slight downward slope throughout the day, starting out at 1.1598, and finishing off at 1.1553.
For today, keep an eye out for GDP figures which will be available at 5:45 am GMT. Consensus is that the economy’s growth accelerated to 1.8% from 0.6% year on year. If actual results manage to show a better-than-expected improvement, we could see the Swissy gain some more in the coming days.
At 7:30 am GMT, we can take a look at the SVME- purchasing managers’ index numbers, which is forecasted to show a decline from a reading of 65.9 in April to 64.7 in May. The index is considered by many as a leading indicator of Swiss output, and often matches the growth of the economy as a whole. If the PMI numbers disappoint, it may keep the franc from extending its wins against the dollar.
Remember, since data releases only happen once in a blue moon in Switzerland, you can bet traders will be anxious to see what these reports have to say about the country’s performance! Don’t miss out!
Like other major currencies, the Swissy went on a wild rollercoaster ride yesterday. The USDCHF rose as high as 1.1731 during the Asian session, before slumping back down to 1.1574 during the European and US trading sessions.
Once again, the culprit for the Swissy’s drastic moves was the shifts in risk sentiment. At first, the Swissy took a dive on worse-than-expected results on its GDP report, worries over the health of euro zone banks, and fear that France might also lose its AAA sovereign debt rating. However, as the day moved along, these concerns faded and were replaced by a strong case of risk appetite. Supported by better-than-expected data from the US, major currency pairs bounced from their intraday lows against the dollar.
For today, the primary driver of the Swissy’s price action will be Switzerland’s retail sales report. Set to come out at 7:15 am GMT, the retail sales report is expected to show a rise of 3.7% for the month of April. Given how risk sentiment has been driving currencies, a higher-than-expected figure may lead to a rally in the Swissy.
The USDCHF pair seemed to be walking on a tight rope yesterday as it tiptoed around the 1.1540 and the 1.1600 levels. Even though Switzerland saw a weaker than expected retail sales figure, the Swissy was able to hold its ground against the greenback.
Retail sales rose by a mere 1.3% in April, half the expected 3.7% increase and much less than the previously reported 4.0% rise for March. But hey, an uptick is still an uptick, which is why the retail sales report still provided support for the Swissy. Besides, better than expected economic reports from the US helped keep risk aversion in check, allowing the Swissy to stay resilient.
No economic reports are due from Switzerland today but keep an eye out for the ADP non-farm employment report due from the US. A stronger than expected report could signal that the non-farm payrolls report would also print improvements, possibly giving the greenback a boost. Maybe this report could be the catalyst for the USDCHF pair to bust out of its tight range!
Rinse and repeat, my old man used to say! Once again, the USDCHF stayed within a tight range of just 80 pips. When are we going to see this pair break out of its range?
Well, that night might be tonight! For the first time since the start of the week, we have a potential catalyst for big moves in the Swissy. At 7:40 am GMT, SNB Chairman Philipp Hildebrand will be speaking at the Swiss Economic Forum. Now, I don’t expect any comments about interest rates, but we may hear him talk about the value of the franc.
If you take a look at a chart of the EURCHF, you’ll notice that th franc has been gaining as of late, and is fast approaching the all time low just above the 1.4000 handle. Will Hildebrand deliver us some verbal intervention?
In just one day, the Swissy managed to burst past through the 1.4000 handle against the euro. This came quite a bit of a surprise to traders because this was the level wherein the Swiss National Bank was said to have last intervened. SNB, where are you?
Keep a close eye on those CHF longs. You never know when the SNB would step in to sell their currency to buy up the euro again. If this happens, the USDCHF might be affected and rise as well.
In any case, please do watch out for Switzerland’s consumer price index (CPI) later. Set to come out at 7:15 am GMT, the CPI is expected to show that the average price of consumer goods and services rose 0.1%. Judging from the overall trend, it looks like inflation isn’t a concern right now of the SNB. This gives me reason to believe that an interest rate hike from the bank is still highly unlikely.