The Swissy bounced off its recent lows, as the franc took a hit thanks to poor economic data. After testing lows around .9070, USD/CHF bounced up to as high as .9192, before settling at .9160, marking a 23-pip gain on the day.
The Swiss franc may have taken a hit due to slightly disappointing economic data that was released yesterday.
First, the Swiss economy grew by just 0.2% last quarter, down from the 0.5% we saw during the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] quarter. This also marked the slowest pace of growth since the end of 2009.
Then later on, the SVME PMI printed worse-than-expected at 44.8. This marked the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] consecutive monthly decline and was its lowest reading in over two years. This means that managers expect manufacturing activity to dip in the coming months, which obviously wouldn’t bode well for the economy.
Later today, Swiss retail sales will be released at 8:15 am GMT. Word is that sales grew by 1.2% last October, which would be a nice improvement from the 0.9% decline we saw the month before. Perhaps this will give the franc the boost it needs to recuperate some of its recent losses.
After last week’s jam-packed action, trading on the Swissy was a lot more subdued to start this week. USD/CHF didn’t set off to make a new high or low and traded within a 70 pip range. By the end of the day, USD/CHF had closed at .9207, just 3 pips above its opening price.
Later today at 8:00 am GMT, data regarding the Swiss government’s foreign currency reserves will be released. This could give us insight as to how much money the SNB has in case it wants to intervene in the markets once again.
Also, don’t forget that inflation data will be released in the form of the CPI report at 8:15 am GMT. Word on the street is that consumer prices rose by just 0.1% last month. Chances are that we won’t see any wild moves following the release, but you never know what might happen!
Boy did the Swiss franc have a tough Tuesday! Against the dollar, it lost 58 pips as USD/CHF closed at .9265. Meanwhile, EUR/CHF ended the day 82 pips higher at 1.2415. And you know what, some investors are saying that the SNB might have had a hand in the franc’s losses yesterday. Uh-oh.
The rumors started going around after we saw the CPI report for November print a 0.2% decline and disappointed expectations which was for a 0.1% uptick. Some market junkies said that the negative figure may just be enough reason for the central bank to lower the ceiling on the currency’s exchange rate to the euro which currently stands at 1.2000.
Speculations then continued to heighten when the foreign currency reserves report indicated that the SNB could be more confident and aggressive in taming the franc’s strength. Data on currency reserves showed that despite repeated intervention by the SNB to buy euros, the central bank’s reserves didn’t increase from 245.0 billion CHF in September. In fact, October’s reading was only at 229.3 billion CHF.
For today we only have the unemployment rate for November on tap at 6:45 am GMT. With talks of an impending recession in Switzerland happening in 2012 already gaining steam, a figure worse than the expected 3.1% reading would probably be bearish for the franc as it would only confirm investors’ fears. So watch out!
Whoa, what a wild ride! The Swissy’s price action yesterday turned out to be a very crazy one as it fell sharply during the European session but quickly recovered during the U.S. session. At the end of the day, the Swissy was actually able to post a 24-pip gain over the Greenback.
The labor report from Switzerland yesterday shared some good news. It showed that jobless in the country has fallen to 3.0% from 3.3%.
No major news release from Switzerland today so the Swissy’s price action will probably be driven by events from other major economies like the U.S. and the euro zone.
What a wild and wacky day for the Swissy! After spiking to as low as .9177, USD/CHF soon recovered and managed to close at .9263, marking a 22-pip gain on the day.
No data on tap coming out from Switzerland today, so chances are that we could see consolidation to end the week. Watch out for any rumors coming out of the EU summit. If we hear more that progress is being made towards more fiscal unity, it would be a game changer in the markets and we could see risk appetite take over.
Despite the European Summit, the Swissy found itself barely changed versus both the euro and the dollar last Friday. EUR/CHF ended the day with just a 9-pip gain while USD/CHF closed 14 pips lower.
The big event for Switzerland this week is the Swiss National Bank (SNB)'s interest rate decision. The market widely expects the SNB to keep rates unchanged below 0.25%, so focus will probably turn to the accompanying statement.
Currency intervention talks have abated as of late, but that doesn’t mean that it won’t be talked about. If the bank starts jawboning again, then we could see the Swissy find some sellers!
When risk sentiment is in play, you know you can count on the franc to show some interesting price action! Concerns on the euro zone debt crisis took its toll on EUR/CHF as it dropped by 26 pips to 1.2359, but demand for the low-yielding dollar also boosted USD/CHF to .9371, a high not seen since March this year.
Of course, it might have helped the franc that Switzerland’s quarterly employment figures showed a solid growth of 4.05 million in the third quarter, a bit higher than the second quarter’s 4.02 million figure. And to think that expectations were only at 2.79 million new workers!
At 6:45 am GMT today the SECO economic forecasts are scheduled for release, but that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t pay attention to risk sentiment! Remember that many investors still see the franc as a “safe haven” despite the SNB’s floor target on EUR/CHF, so a dramatic increase in risk aversion could still boost the franc against its other counterparts.
The Swissy found itself trading in a mixed fashion versus other major currencies yesterday. While it gave up a lot of ground versus the strengthening Greenback, it was able to post gains over the euro. USD/CHF ended the day 87 pips higher while EUR/CHF fell 28 pips. It appears that even though traders prefer the Swissy to the euro, the dollar remains their primary choice.
A bit of economic good news was published yesterday. Switzerland’s employment level report showed that the number of people employed during the third quarter was at 4.05 million, significantly higher than the 2.79 million figure initially expected. It was also a slight improvement from the previous quarter’s 4.02 million.
No data coming out of Switzerland today. Pay attention instead to the developments in the euro zone to determine the Swissy’s direction for today.
Who’s one of the biggest losers yesterday? I’ll give you a clue. It starts with F and ends with –ranc! That’s right, it’s the franc! Poor economic data from Switzerland weakened the low-yielding franc despite the risk aversion in the markets, and sent USD/CHF 66 pips above its open price.
With the disappointing economic data that was released yesterday, who could blame the franc bears from attacking? Switzerland’s producer price index dropped by another 0.8% in November after already slipping by 0.2% in October, while the ZEW economic expectations clocked in at a -72.0 reading in December. Remember, only a reading above 0.0 is considered as economic optimism.
Will the franc trade on economic data again today, or will its safe haven status provide some relief for the currency?
At 8:15 am GMT Switzerland will release its quarterly industrial production figures, with the data expected to show a 0.7% decline for the third quarter against the second quarter’s 0.6% growth.
Of course, the bigger report to watch out for is the SNB’s interest rate decision and press conference coming out at 8:30 am GMT. Word on the street is that the SNB could raise its floor on EUR/CHF to as high as 1.3000, but others believe that the central bank could only open its gates for the move this month instead of actually implementing it. What do you think?
Stay at the edge of your seats for this potential market-moving reports!
Let’s go, Swissy, let’s go! The Swiss franc was able to end the day higher than the euro and U.S. dollar as the SNB refrained from intervening in the currency market. USD/CHF opened at .9531 then closed at .9404 while EUR/CHF ended 136 pips down from its 1.2374 open price.
The Swiss franc was relieved that the SNB didn’t make any intervention moves during their monetary policy statement yesterday. Many were expecting the central bank to raise their EUR/CHF peg to 1.2500 or even 1.3000 but the SNB didn’t make any new efforts to weaken their currency. They simply reiterated their pledge to defend the EUR/CHF 1.2000 peg with “utmost determination” and left their Libor rate unchanged at 0.25%.
Switzerland won’t be releasing any economic data today so make sure you keep close tabs on market sentiment to find out where the Swissy could be headed. Stay on your toes!
Day two of the bulls and bears battle belonged to the franc bulls last Friday as Switzerland’s economic reports and the SNB’s lack of action on the franc strength kept the demand for the low-yielding franc steady. USD/CHF fell by another 40 pips to .9364, while EUR/CHF also dropped by 30 pips to 1.2208.
Though the economic boards were empty in Switzerland last Friday, the franc bulls kept the party alive with the thought that the SNB won’t be actively weakening the franc against its counterparts, at least until the end of the year.
Still, it doesn’t mean that the central bank isn’t watching the price action closely! Though no reports are scheduled from Switzerland again today, reports from the U.S., euro region, and the other major economies might influence the franc’s price action so make sure you stay glued to the tube, aight?
The Swissy sure knows how to keep it tight! USD/CHF stuck close to its week open price of .9365 while EUR/CHF managed to stay below the 1.2200 handle. Will the Swissy find a clearer direction today?
The lack of hard-hitting reports from both the U.S. and Switzerland left the Swiss franc in consolidation with its counterparts yesterday. Today, Switzerland is set to print its trade balance for November and this report could add a little more volatility to the Swissy’s price action.
The report could show that the surplus widened from 2.15 billion CHF to 2.47 billion CHF during the month, as exports are expected to outpace imports by a larger margin. A higher than expected surplus could give the franc a boost and push it out of consolidation.
The Swiss franc pulled a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde yesterday as it put up mixed results. On one hand, it gained ground against the dollar as USD/CHF fell 56 pips to .9318. But on the other hand, it weakened slightly against the euro as EUR/CHF climbed 5 pips to finish at 1.2186. Will we see more of Dr. Jekyll today or will Mr. Hyde show up?
The franc got a boost from November’s positive trade balance report, which showed a wider surplus of 3.0 billion CHF, up from 2.16 billion CHF in October. A 3.8% year-on-year rise in exports (in real terms) helped November to surpass expectations, which had the Swiss trade surplus coming in at just 2.47 billion CHF.
Since we won’t have any major reports coming from Switzerland today, momentum will continue carrying it higher, at least against the dollar. But just to be safe, I suggest you keep track of what’s happening in the euro zone as well. Negative developments in the euro zone could easily spill over to Switzerland and in turn, weaken the franc against the dollar. Also, I think it would be wise to read Forex Gump’s post on how to handle Christmas volatility so you can make the proper adjustments in your trading. Good luck, fellas!
I guess it’s true what they say… With less liquidity comes more volatility. And that’s exactly what we saw with the Swissy’s price action yesterday! USD/CHF opened at .9318, jumped to a high of .9394, then closed at .9357. EUR/CHF topped at 1.2243 before closing at 1.2208.
Switzerland didn’t release any economic data yesterday as traders were unable to keep the risk rally going for yet another day. It turns out that market participants were extremely disappointed when the ECB decided against increasing their lending between banks.
There aren’t any top-tier reports on Switzerland’s schedule for the rest of the week so make sure you keep close tabs on what’s going on in the euro zone to help gauge market sentiment. Stay on your toes!
Boy, was the Swissy hard to trade yesterday or what?! Save for a few spikes here and there, it traded relatively flatly and ended almost unchanged against its major counterparts. USD/CHF formed a perfect doji as it inched 1 pip higher to .9358, while EUR/CHF crawled 6 pips higher to 1.2214.
As I mentioned yesterday, we didn’t really have much to work with since Switzerland didn’t publish any reports. I suppose this explains why the Swissy ended practically unchanged yesterday.
With today being the last trading day before the holidays, we might just see more of the same from the Swissy. But just to be safe, I suggest you keep your eyes and ears open for any last-minute developments in the euro zone that may affect overall market sentiment. Good luck and happy holidays, kids!
Aside from a mid-week spike, we didn’t see much action on the Swissy last week. By the end of the week, USD/CHF was at .9394, up just 22 pips from its weekly open price.
No data on the docket from Switzerland today, so chances are that we’re gonna see some tight trading on the Swissy. We could see the pair breakout a bit later in the week, when the SVME PMI (Tuesday) and CPI figures (Friday) are released.
First day of the year = first loss of the year! Though it didn’t really see much action, the Swiss franc edged lower against its two major counterparts. After falling to as low as .9353, USD/CHF rallied to end the day 14 pips higher at .9403. Meanwhile, EUR/CHF inched 6 pips up to 1.2156.
The Swiss franc didn’t really have much to work with considering that most markets were closed yesterday. But today could be a different story as traders get back into action!
At 8:30 am GMT, Switzerland is due to publish the SVME PMI report, which measures the relative level of business conditions in the country. Look for the index to tick down from 44.8 to 44.5. Also, be sure to keep track of risk sentiment as it could affect demand for the franc, particularly against the euro. Good luck and may the pips be with you!
Taking advantage of the greenback’s weakness, the Swiss franc sliced and diced its way to a victory yesterday, as USD/CHF dropped 82 pips from its opening price to finish at .9321.
One report that may have given franc a boost was the SVME PMI report, which printed much better-than-expected at 50.7. This was much higher than the projected score of 44.8, and a big improvement from the 44.8 we saw last month. This also marked the first time in four months that the index printed above the 50.0 mark, indicating that business activity could expand in the coming months. Boo yeah!
For today, nothing on the docket from Switzerland, but make sure you keep an eye out for reports from other countries, as this could set the tone for risk sentiment.
Unlike Switzerland’s world-famous chocolates, the Swiss franc didn’t really appear sweet and mouth-watering to investors yesterday. The currency lost to its major counterparts, giving up 22 pips to the euro as EUR/CHF closed at 1.2187, and 93 pips to the dollar as USD/CHF ended the day at .9414.
Aside from concerns about the euro zone debt crisis highlighting the dollar’s safe haven reputation, perhaps the controversy surrounding the SNB also took its toll on the Swissy. There have been reports that SNB Chairman Hildebrand was involved in insider trading. Uh-oh…
But don’t worry. From what I have heard, the SNB head honcho has agreed to an interview sometime today to answer allegations against him.
Aside from that, keep an ear out for developments in the euro zone as they may continue to affect the Swissy’s fate on the charts.
Make that two in a room! For the second consecutive day, the franc found itself on the losing end versus the dollar, as USD/CHF rose another 111 pips to close at .9525.
Also, keep an eye out for the Swiss CPI report, which is scheduled for release at 8:15 am GMT. Expectations are that inflation remained flat in the past month, so we might not see much of a reaction when the report is released.
Instead, I’d keep an eye out for the U.S. NFP report, which will be released during the New York session. With USD/CHF now trading below its December highs, it’ll be interesting to see whether this resistance level holds, or if it’ll get blown out of the water when the employment figures come out.