The lack of economic data from Switzerland kept well within its trading range again yesterday. The Swissy hardly posted any gains or losses, ending the US trading session at 1.0187, just three pips away from its Asian open price of 1.0184.
For today, expect to see Switzerland’s producer price index for the month of December at 8:15 am GMT. The PPI measures the monthly change in price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. Because of this, the PPI is a good leading indicator of inflation since businesses tend to pass on additional costs they incur to consumers. The forecast is a 0.2% rise, an improvement from the flat reading seen in November. A rising PPI is usually seen as positive for the domestic currency because it could indicate future rate hikes.
Also watch out for the US consumer price index and preliminary UoM consumer sentiment report later. If the results of these reports come out grossly off-target, we could see the Swissy bust out of its trading range.
The Swissy took a huge hit last when a wave of risk aversion hit the markets last Friday. The USDCHF was trading at 1.0188 when the Asian trading session began and was bought up to 1.0267 when the foreign exchange markets closed for the weekend.
Switzerland’s PPI, which was released last Friday, provided little support for the currency. Even the result was better than last month, the PPI revealed that prices rose only 0.1% in December, and not 0.2% like expected.
No high-profile report coming of Switzerland today but we will see ZEW economic expectations survey on Thursday. The ZEW survey asks economist and investors on their sentiment towards Switzerland’s economy. A positive reading means there were more optimists than pessimists. The figure for December was 54.0 and any improvement from the reading could be provide support for the falling Swissy.
The franc started the week off right, as it gained back some of its recent losses despite the slow trading yesterday. The USDCHF pair closed lower at 1.0252.
Nothing coming out over the next few days, so be on the look out for news coming out from other countries. More specifically, watch out for the ZEW economic sentiment indexes to be released at 10:00 am GMT. Take note that the franc is highly correlated to the euro, so if these reports come in worse than expected, it could cause a sell off in the euro, which in turn may hurt the franc as well.
The Swissy bowed down to the US dollar yesterday, pushing the USDCHF up to the 1.0350 area. Switzerland’s economic docket was empty then, leaving the Swissy vulnerable to US dollar strength.
News of a possible Republican victory in the Massachusetts special Senate elections drove the US dollar higher. This was based on speculations that a resulting delay in the passing of the US health care bill would help curb the growing government deficit. Meanwhile, an economic report showing a strong rise in purchases of US long-term securities boosted the US dollar further.
Switzerland’s economic schedule is empty again today, which means that USDCHF price action could be mostly affected by economic reports from the US. These are building permits, housing starts, and PPI figures. Keep an eye out for those!
For a second time this week, the Swissy dropped like it’s hot against the dollar yesterday. The USDCHF soared to a high of 1.0463 before settling at 1.0441 from 1.0320.
No economic reports were due in Switzerland yesterday. The Swissy got axed due to the resumption of risk aversion in the US markets.
Switzerland’s Zew economic expectation for January will be on deck today at 10:00 am GMT. The index for the previous month was pegged at 54.0. Given the euro zone’s and the UK’s recent economic struggle, Switzerland’s economic outlook could be negatively affected as well. I’ll not get surprised if the index prints a lower score. Remember that the former two are Switzerland’s major trading partners. Any decline in the index could also pull the Swissy lower.
Supported by positive economic data, the USDCHF was able to hold its ground in yesterday’s trading session. The pair opened the Asian trading session at 1.0440 and close the US session slightly lower at 1.0422.
The ZEW economic expectations survey released yesterday printed a reading of 56.2 for this month, up from the 54.0 reading seen in December. The report revealed that analysts are starting to get more optimistic and that inflation expectations for the future have picked up.
No major economic data for today but given the amount of ground the Swissy lost this week, we could be in for a Friday correction.
Tight trading on the USDCHF last Friday, with the Swissy somehow staying slightly ahead. The pair stayed within range and closed the week at 1.0415. Will Swissy bulls strike back and go on a run this week?
Nothing much coming up this week, with only the UBS Consumption Indicator and KOF Economic Barometerindexes coming out tomorrow and Friday respectively. The first report is an index based on 5 economic indicators. It is expected to have a reading of 1.28, which would mark an improvement from December’s reading of 0.88. This would mean that the Swiss economy is doing slightly better.
The second index tries to predict the direction of the Swiss economy for the next 6 months. It is a more complex index as it is based on 12 indicators. It also tends to have a stronger impact on currency markets. The index is expected to have improved from December’s score of 1.68 to 1.72 this month.
While both these indexes are expected to show improvements, I suspect that franc trading will be driven once again by degrees in risk sentiment. With a lot of high impact news coming out across the board, we may just see some volatile moves this week.
Consolidation was the name of the game for the USDCHF tandem yesterday as the markets await the high-impact economic events for this week. Although the USDCHF pair dipped to a low of 1.0370, it struggled to stay on top of the 1.0400 handle.
Switzerland did not release any economic reports yesterday, leaving the USDCHF pair vulnerable to economic releases from the US. However, the pair seemed to be unfazed by the disappointing US existing home sales report. More economic reports are due from the US today, namely the CB consumer confidence index, S&P house price index, and the Richmond manufacturing index. Aside from that, the US Senate is expected to vote on whether FedChairman Ben Bernanke would get another term in office. These could make way for a pretty exciting day in the currency markets so stay on your toes!
The Swissy buckled against the dollar as fears that China’s growth will slow down mounted in the minds of investors. The USDCHF rose and closed at 1.0461 from an opening of 1.0398.
As mentioned, the Swissy as well as the other anti-dollars slid late in the Asian session and throughout the euro session as China’s authorities followed up on their plans to raise the reserve requirements of some of its banks. It seems that China is trying prevent the country from overheating from too much growth and also avert an asset bubble similar to what happened in the US. This new policy was done on top China’s earlier moves to increase the interest rate on the central bank’s 3-month bill. Contractionary measures such these stunt the potential growth not only of China but of its trading partners as well.
The Swissy got some additional selling pressure when Switzerland’s UBS consumption indicator declined to 1.20 from 1.26 in December. While the figure still indicates an expansion private consumption, its pace still remains below its long-term average of 1.5.
Switzerland’s economic calendar is report-free today. This means that the Swissy may be left at the mercy of the events in the US. Later, the Fed will release its decision regarding its monetary policy. Data on new home sales in December will also be released. On top of these, the Senate will continue to vote on whether to confirm Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for another term.
No thanks to the FOMC’s statement yesterday, the Swiss franc lost for the fourth straight day yesterday. The USDCHF found itself at 1.0526 by the end of the US trading session, 60 pips higher from its Asian open price.
Switzerland’s economic calendar today is completely barren. Tomorrow, however, do watch out for the KOF economic barometer. The KOF economic barometer is designed to predict the direction of the economy for the next couple of months by using a combined reading of around 12 indicators. The forecast is a reading of 1.72 for January, up the 1.68 figure seen last December. A better-than-expected figure could help the Swiss franc retrace some of its losses.
Tough day for the Swissy, as it lost out against the USD for the 4th time this week. Will the USDCHF complete a sweep and close higher once again today?
The KOF Economic Barometer index will be released today at 10:30 am GMT. The index is predicted to print a score of 1.72, which would be a nice uptick from last month’s reading of 1.68. This would indicate that the Swiss economy is slowly improving. However, given how risk aversion has been driving the market, the CHF may not make much gains even if the index comes in better than expected. Furthermore, traders may be waiting for the release of US data later in the day, so they may overlook the results of the index.
Watch out during the US session, when US GDP figures will be released. This could cause some volatile moves in the market, so be careful!
Ouch! The Swissy was pummeled by the greenback last Friday after the US reported a very strong GDP figure. As a result, the USDCHF reached a high of 1.0643 and stayed above the 1.0600 area during the entire US session.
Switzerland is set to release its SVME PMI at 8:30 am GMT today. The report could show that the manufacturing industry continues to expand as the index climbs from 54.6 to 55.4 in January.
On Tuesday, we’ll see the SECO consumer climate report at 6:45 am GMT. Consumer climate could be less gloomy for the past three months since the indicator is estimated to climb from -30 to -23.
Lastly, on Thursday, the trade balance data is due 7:15 am GMT. Switzerland’s trade surplus could widen from 2.14 billion CHF to 2.33 billion CHF in December, indicating that exports continue to outpace imports.
Although positive reports from Switzerland could provide support for the Swissy, the greenback could maintain its strength based from the US economic reports due this week. Also, the strong GDP figure reported last week could have a lingering impact on the USDCHF price action.
The Swissy snapped its 5-day losing streak against the dollar in yesterday’s trading. The USDCHF fell and settled at 1.0558 from 1.0609.
Switzerland’s SVME PMI rose to its 20-month high in January with a score of 56.0. The consensus was only 55.4. The index has now been above the 50.0 mark for 5 straight months. Remember that a score of above 50 indicates expansion in the industry. While the SNB expects the Swiss economy to grow further this year, it also warns that the recovery might still be delicate.
The Swissy gained some ground following the result.
Today (6:45 am GMT), Switzerland’s SECO consumer confidence will be released. The index compiles the survey of 1,100 households regarding the level of past and future economic conditions. The index is seen to improve slightly to -10 from -14. While the Swiss economy is largely improving as of late, households are still somewhat pessimistic about it. In any case, an increase in the index could still give the Swissy some support at least in the very short term.
The Swissy continued to take ground away from the dollar yesterday. The USDCHF, after touching 1.0600 during the European session, was brought down by currency traders to close the US session at 1.0550.
The quarterly SECO consumer climate survey released yesterday was able to give the Swissy some support. It printed a reading of -7 for the final quarter of 2009, beating the -10 forecast and better than last reporting period’s reading of -14.
No data coming out today from Switzerland but expect to see its trade balance tomorrow at 7:15 am GMT. The trade balance measures the net difference in value between exported and imported goods. A positive balance is called a surplus, indicating more goods were exported than imported. The forecast is a surplus of 2.33 billion CHF in December, higher than the 2.14 billion CHF surplus seen the month before.
The end of the European session was tough on the CHF, as the USDCHF looked headed for new lows, before it promptly changed course. The pair ended back up 1.0590.
Later today at 7:15 am GMT, trade balance figures from Switzerland are due. It is expected that the surplus widened from 2.14 billion CHF to 2.33 billion CHF. Still, I highly doubt that traders will be keeping an eye out for this report. Most likely, traders will be gearing up for the interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank later today. The reactions to these reports could dictate CHF trading for today.
The Swissy crumbled like moldy Swiss cheese yesterday, with risk aversion pushing the greenback higher against most majors. Apparently, credit concerns in the euro zone were back to haunt the markets, causing investors to flee to the safe-haven currencies.
The USDCHF surged to a high of 1.0676 during the US session as the greenback rallied on risk aversion. Since Switzerland just reported a weak trade balance for December, the Swissy became even more vulnerable to greenback strength. Their trade surplus narrowed from 1.98 billion CHF to 1.26 billion CHF during the month as Swiss exports to US, Japan, France, and Italy dwindled.
Aside from that, traders started unwinding their positions on higher-yielding currencies ahead of the volatility-inducing NFP report due today. A positive reading is expected for January, possibly allowing the greenback to gain more fundamental strength.
The Swissy, for the third day in a row, slid against the greenback last Friday despite the rebound in the US capitals markets. The USDCHF climbed to as high as 1.0796 from 1.0657 before settling at 1.0729.
Today (6:45 am GMT), Switzerland’s jobless rate for the month of January will be released. The country’s unemployment rate is seen to have worsened slightly to 4.3% from 4.2%. While an increase in this figure is usually bearish for the Swissy, the result of this account is expected to just have a negligible impact on it.
Also due today at 8:15 am GMT is Switzerland’s year-on-year retail sales in January. Sales are projected to have climbed by 1.3% during the period from 0.6%. Such expansion in the number could halt the Swissy’s decline at least in the short term. Some economists, however, say that a strong retail sales number could prompt the SNB to intervene in the markets to prevent the currency from gaining ground.
On Thursday, the country’s CPI figures will be issued. The month-on-month consumer prices are seen to have decreased again by 0.4% in January on top of the 0.2% decline in December. This drop could once again reflect negatively on the country’s short term fundamentals and the Swissy’s valuation. In any case, the year-on-year account is still projected to be at 0.8%.
Thanks to better-than-expected results on economic data release, the Swissy was able to hold its ground against the dollar yesterday. The USDCHF closed the US trading session hardly changed at 1.0738, just 20 pips higher from its Asian session price.
The labor market report released yesterday showed that joblessness in Switzerland, which was expected to hit 4.6% in January from 4.4% the month before, only increased to 4.5%. Furthermore, retail sales report revealed a whopping 4.7% (December 2009 on December 2008) increase in sales, almost four times the forecast.
All this recent optimistic data from Switzerland has pushed some experts to speculate that the SNB could raise rates come the second half of 2010. Well, I don’t know about that, especially now that the market is starting to price in the double-dip recession we’ve all been hearing for so long… Then again, we all know how sentiment can shift on a dime so it’s best to be aware of all the possibilities, right?
The Swissy rode the wave of optimism yesterday to finish higher against the dollar. The USDCHF pair closed at 1.0652 as risk appetite was the name of the game.
With no major news coming out over the next few days, watch out for news and data coming out from other countries, more specifically from the European nation surrounding Switzerland. News broke out yesterday that Greece may actually get some help. This is what caused the rally in higher yielding currencies yesterday. If optimism continues to grow, we could see the CHF recover more the losses its posted this year.
The USDCHF pair rallied then reversed yesterday when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech caused a ruckus in the markets. The pair climbed from a low of 1.0618 and topped out at a high of 1.0722 during the US session.
Switzerland did not release any economic reports yesterday, leaving the CHF at the mercy of economic reports from the US. When Bernanke hinted that the Fed was moving closer to implementing an exit strategy, the CHF easily gave way to USD strength. However, when the Fed Chairman reiterated his cautious monetary policy outlook, the CHF struggled to recover part of its losses.
Looking ahead, Swiss CPI is due 8:15 am GMT today. It could show that price levels dipped by 0.4% in January after declining by 0.2% in the previous month.