Oh, the bloodbath! The pound got heavily sold off against the U.S. dollar last Friday, as GBP/USD crashed from a high of 1.5458 to end the day at 1.5365. What the heck happened?!
The U.K. trade balance figure came in worse than expected for March, as the deficit came in at 9.1 billion GBP instead of the estimated 8.9 billion GBP shortfall. Still, the March figure was a small improvement over the 9.2 billion GBP trade deficit, which was revised up from the initially reported 9.4 billion GBP shortfall.
However, cableâs sharp selloff was more of a dollar move than a result of pound weakness. As it turns out, the Fed started mapping out its plans for withdrawing monetary policy stimulus, which led traders to show some love for the Greenback.
There are no reports due from the U.K. today, which suggests that GBP/USD trading could be dependent on U.S. events once more. Take note that Uncle Sam will print its retail sales figures during todayâs New York session and that stronger than expected data might suggest that the could implement its exit from stimulus pretty soon.
Perhaps the biggest event for the pound this week would be the claimant count change release on Wednesday. After that, BOE Governor Kingâs speech and the BOE inflation report could also have an impact on pound price action. Stay on your toes!
The bleeding continues! For the third consecutive day, GBP/USD closed lower, as it finished at 1.5297, down 59 pips from its opening price. Now that the pair is trading below the support line of the rising channel, could the pound be headed for more losses?
No biggies on tap for today, so we may see consolidation take place on pound pairs. Watch out though for the German ZEW economic sentiment report, as this may cause a ruckus on EUR/GBP trading. That report could indirectly dictate GBP trading across the board, so pay attention when it hits the market at 9:00 am GMT. Good luck trading, homies!
Make that four! The pound bears extended their party yesterday as they dragged GBP/USD a couple more pips lower than its open price. Not only that, but the pound also lost against the euro and the yen!
The U.K.âs CB leading index came in at 0.4% like last month, so the poundâs weakness probably had more to do with dollar strength. Still, that doesnât mean that you shouldnât look at economic reports on the U.K.âs docket today!
At 8:30 am GMT we will see employment-related reports such as the claimant count change, unemployment rate, and the 3-month average earnings index. Claimant counts are expected to decrease less than it did last month (-0.3% vs. -0.7%) but the unemployment rate is seen to remain at 7.9%.
Then, at 9:30 am GMT BOE Governor Mervyn King will talk about the U.K.âs inflation. Commodity prices have taken hits in the past couple of weeks, so overall inflation is expected to remain within the central bankâs estimates. All the same, you shouldnât miss this speech as King could also hint at the bankâs future inflation expectations and monetary policy decisions.
Cyclopip can learn a thing or two about resilience from the pound instead of easily giving up on his crazy diets. Yesterday, the currency was able to hold its ground against the mighty dollar. GBP/USD closed higher from 1.5209 to 1.5235 while all the other major currencies gave in to the Greenbackâs strength.
Good news from the U.K. just kept the pound bulls coming. For one, the claimant count change report for April showed further improvements in the labor market. The reading came in more that double the 3,100 drop in claims at 7,300.
To top it off, the BOE upgraded its forecast for economic growth for the first time since the financial crisis. The central bank now sees the British economy to print a growth rate of 1.2% versus the 0.9% uptick that policymakers initially estimated. Boo yeah!
I wonder though, will the pound be able to hold its ground today without any economic reports from the U.K.? What do you think?
Iâm really not sure what to expect but I have a feeling that weâll see the currency react more to market sentiment. With that said, make sure you gauge the marketâs mood before jumping in on a pound trade. Remember that it usually does well when risk appetite is up!
The pound sure knows how to make a comeback, doesnât it? GBP/USD bounced back above the 1.5300 major psychological level in yesterdayâs trading while GBP/JPY rallied up to 156.00. Whatâs boosting the pound these days?
There were no reports released from the U.K. yesterday, leaving GBP/USD vulnerable to U.S. data. Luckily for the pound, the U.S. printed another round of bleak figures which caused dollar demand to weaken.
The U.K. economic calendar is still empty again for today which suggests that pound trading could rely on market sentiment. Remember that the pound is currently enjoying a pretty good run since the BOE recently upgraded their growth and inflation forecasts. Stay on your toes for any possible changes in sentiment though!
The pound eventually gave in to dollar strength on Friday, as GBP/USD tumbled from the 1.5300 area to end the week at 1.5168. GBP/JPY also ended the week in the red as it closed 11 pips below the 156.00 handle.
The U.K. didnât release any data last Friday, leaving GBP/USD very sensitive to U.S. data. As it turns out, the U.S. printed a stronger than expected consumer confidence report, boosting the dollar higher against the pound.
There are no reports due from the U.K. today but this could just be the calm before the storm as several important releases are scheduled for the rest of the week.
Tomorrow, the U.K. will print its CPI figures and possibly show a drop in annual inflation from 2.8% to 2.6% in April. Wednesday has the BOE monetary policy meeting minutes and the U.K. retail sales on tap, along with the CB industrial orders expectations report. On Thursday, the U.K. will print its second estimate of its Q1 2013 GDP figure while the BBA mortgage approvals report is due on Friday.
If youâre planning on trading pound pairs this week, better take some time to do your research to figure out how these upcoming reports could turn out!
It seems like pound bulls got a lot of R&R over the weekend! They certainly looked energetic in yesterdayâs trading as they managed to take GBP/USD 84 pips up to 1.5259. Do they have enough stamina to keep the rally going?
The answer to that question might depend on the results of todayâs CPI report! At 8:30 am GMT, weâll take a look at the the U.K.'s latest inflation stats. Survey says that weâll probably see inflation temper down from 2.8% to 2.6% because of falling oil prices.
Seeing as the Bank of England has been eyeing consumer prices like a hawk, this report could turn out to be a catalyst for a breakout on GBP/USD, which has been trading between 1.5270 and 1.5170 for the past few days. Donât even think about missing this one, folks!
The pound was the biggest loser in the major currency block as a weak U.K. report reignited fears of more easing. GBP/USD plunged by a steep 108 pips, GBP/JPY fell by 72 pips, and EUR/GBP shot up by 71 pips. What the heck was released from the U.K.?
Itâs all about inflation, of course! Data printed yesterday revealed weak increases in consumer AND producer prices. Annual CPI dropped from 2.8% to 2.4% while its core reading also disappointed estimates at 2.0% instead of 2.3%. Heck the 2.3% decline in producer prices was even sharper than the expected 1.2% downtick!
The reports probably wouldnât have dragged on the pound as much if there werenât speculations that the BOE is about to pull the trigger and add more stimulus to the economy. But with consumer prices coming in weaker-than-expected, word around the hood is that it wouldnât take much for the BOE to pump more money into the economy.
Today at 8:30 am GMT the MPC is set to release its meeting minutes. However, the report will be printed at the same time as the U.K.âs monthly retail sales and public sector borrowing, so make sure that you mull over the potential impact of each release if youâre planning on trading the pound today!
With poor data released, pound selling was all the rage, as it struggled against its major counterparts. GBP/USD dropped 108 pips to finish at 1.5044, while EUR/GBP rose to as high as .8591 before finally settling at .8545, up 28 pips from its opening price.
First, the U.K. got crappy retail sales figures, as a report showed that sales declined by 1.3% last month, after it was projected to remain steady. Meanwhile, public sector net borrowing figures rose by 8.0 billion GBP, slightly more than the 7.6 billion GBP. This means that the government is still spending more than itâs taking in.
Moving on, the meeting minutes showed that for the fourth meeting in a row, the doves were outvoted by the hawks, 6 to 3. This means that rates remained steady at 0.50%, and that the central bank didnât make any changes to its 375 billion GBP asset purchase program.
In any case, the markets didnât respond positively to these news, as traders shorted the pound left and right. Could we see more of the same in todayâs trading?
Watch out at 8:30 am GMT, as the second edition of the quarterly GDP report will be released. No changes are expected from the preliminary release, as itâs projected to show a 0.3% quarterly increase.
Nevertheless, you should pay attention during the release because any deviation from the anticipated result could lead to a ruckus in the markets!
Thanks to comments from a Fed member, Cable was able to recover some of its gains yesterday. According to the Fedâs James Bullard, the central bank wasnât really âthat closeâ to tapering off its QE program. This resulted in Cable rising to 1.5113 from 1.5043.
Data from the U.K. was mixed. On the one hand, the second estimate of U.K.âs Q1 2013 GDP confirmed that the economy did indeed grow by 0.3%. Unfortunately, the reports on both preliminary business investment and index of services failed to meet forecasts. The preliminary business investment report showed a 0.4% decline while the index of services only grew 0.6% and not 0.7% like initially expected.
U.K.âs forex calendar for today only has one important piece of data for us. At 8:30 am GMT, the BBA Mortgage Approvals report will come out. It is anticipated to print a reading of 32,700, which is slightly higher than the previous monthâs 31,200. A rising reading is normally seen as bullish for the domestic economy because it means that consumers are confident enough with their financial situation to take out a home mortgage .
Relatively quiet end to the week for the pound, as it pretty much stayed within range versus its major counterparts last Friday. GBP/USD traded as low as 1.5064 before eventually finishing at 1.5126, up 14 pips form its opening price. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP ended the day trading at .8551, 10 pips lower on the day.
With no hard data released over the next couple of days, we could see more ranging take place. Watch out though, as MPC members Paul Tucker and Charles Bean will be speaking at separate economic events. They could use these events as platforms to voice their opinions on monetary policy, and this may lead to some volatility in GBP pairs.
The pound started the week on a bleak note as it edged lower against the U.S. dollar in yesterdayâs trading. GBP/USD slipped from a high of 1.5156 to a low of 1.5087. GBP/JPY, on the other hand, struggled to hold on to the 152.50 area. Whatâs in store for the pound today?
There were no reports released from the U.K. yesterday, as banks were on a holiday. For today, there are no U.K. economic reports set for release but BOE monetary policy committee member Paul Tucker is scheduled to give a speech at 6:00 pm GMT. Watch out for any remarks containing clues about future monetary policy, as these could dictate the poundâs direction for the day!
No reports from the U.K. yesterday, so the pound was at the mercy of its counterparts. Dollar strength dragged Cable by 56 pips while yen weakness boosted Guppy by as much as 126 pips.
Traders from the U.K. might have returned from their bank holiday, but the lack of major data from the U.K. prevented any consistent move among the pound pairs. Will the pound get to set its own price action today?
MPC member Charles Bean (No, heâs not Mr. Bean) is scheduled to speak at 9:30 am GMT, which will be followed by the CBI realized sales at 10:00 am GMT. Both news events arenât expected to have significant impact on the pound pairs, but watch them closely nonetheless in case we see any surprises.
Thanks to broad-based dollar weakness, GBP/USD was able to shrug off disappointing economic data and dovish remarks from MPC member Bean to finish 82 pips higher at 1.5131. Overall, it was a good day to be a pound bull!
The CBI realized sales report printed below expectations, as the index dropped from -1 to -11 instead of posting a rebound to 4 as many had predicted. What this actually means is that retail sales fell at its fastest pace in over a year! Apparently, the month of May saw big drops in food and drinks, as well as clothing and footwear, which led overall sales volumes to fall below average for this time of year.
In other news, BOE Deputy Governor Charles Bean showed signs of concern for the economy in his speech yesterday. He said that the countryâs high debt levels and weakness in exports might weigh down the countryâs growth prospects. Yikes! Looks like Mr. Bean thinks the country ainât in the clear yet!
Today, we have the Nationwide HPI due at 6:00 am GMT, and itâs slated to print a 0.5% increase following the previous monthâs 0.1% slide. Also, at 11:01 pm GMT, the GfK consumer confidence report is expected to rise from -27 to -25. Though these reports arenât usually known to be big market movers, they might just help the pound erase some of its recent losses if they both print big upside surprises.
Back to back baby! Once again, the pound found itself seated in the winnersâ table, as it simply ran the table against the dollar. GBP/USD rose a solid 100 pips to finish at 1.5230.
The pound got a slight boost from the Nationwide HPI report, which indicated that housing prices rose 0.4%. This was a sweet turnaround from the previous month, where saw zero growth in home prices.
Donât get too excited though, as the real reason why the pound pushed ahead of the Greenback was actually because of overall dollar weakness. Make sure you hit up my USD writeup for the 411 on the scrilla!
For today, the only bit of data headed our way from the U.K. will be net lending to consumers figures, due at 6:30 am GMT. Expectations are that credit given to individuals clocked in again at 900 million. Still, I donât know if this will affect pound trading all too much. Instead, make sure you pay attention to dollar flows, as that has been the major driver of GBP/USD trading throughout the week.
The pound did such a good job holding on to the 1.5200 handle during the Tokyo and London sessions in Fridayâs trading, however, it lost its grip towards the latter part of the day. GBP/USD tumbled below the level, closing with a 37-pip loss for the day.
No top-tier reports were released from the U.K. and this left the pound vulnerable to market sentiment. Unfortunately for the pound, we saw a reversal in U.S. equities which translated to a stronger dollar versus its higher-yielding counterparts.
Donât fret though! Today, the manufacturing PMI report for May will be released at 8:30 am GMT. If youâre looking to trade the pound, you can look to the report for any cues on which direction itâs headed. A figure better than the expected 50.3 reading will probably be bullish but a negative reading would have a bearish effect. Watch out!
Is that a bird? Is that a plane? No, itâs just Cable soaring through charts! Thanks to positive data, Cable, which began the day at 1.5213, found itself more than 100 pips higher at 1.5318 by the end of the U.S. trading session.
Yesterday, the U.K.âs Manufacturing Purchasing Mangersâ Index reported well above forecast. It came in at 51.3 instead of 50.3. It was also a welcome improvement from the previous monthâs 50.2 (revised up from 49.8). This indicates that the U.K.'s manufacturing industry is in expansion mode, affirming BOE Governor Mervyn Kingâs earlier statements that the economy is starting to improve.
Today, weâll see another PMI, but on the construction sector. Itâs anticipated to print a reading of 49.7, which is slightly higher than the previous monthâs reading of 49.4. The actual figure will publish at 8:30 am GMT.
Stronger-than-expected PMI? Who cares? The strong U.K. construction PMI report was mostly shrugged off yesterday as Cable registered a 10-pip loss while EUR/GBP also rose by 11 pips. What the heck happened?!
Yesterday the U.K.âs construction PMI should have provided good vibes for the pound bulls. The report came in at 50.8, which is not only in the expansionary territory, but is also the highest reading since October 2012. The positive report followed the upside surprise in manufacturing PMI last Monday.
Unfortunately, traders paid more attention to the poundâs counterparts. Positive data from the euro region boosted the demand for the common currency while a slight recovery in dollar demand weighed on GBP/USD.
Will the pound have a chance at gaining pips today? The last of the PMI trio, the services PMI, is due at 8:30 am GMT. The report is expected to clock in at 53.1 from last monthâs 52.9 figure. An even higher reading could finally convince the pound bulls to attack, so you better watch out for this report!
Strike three for the bulls! The pound got another boost yesterday after a third PMI report from the U.K. hinted that the economy is firing on all cylinders. Cable popped up by another 93 pips while EUR/GBP slipped by 44 pips.
Yesterday the U.K.âs services PMI energized the pound bulls after it printed at 54.9. Not only is it the highest reading in more than a year, but it also followed the upside surprises in construction and manufacturing PMIs released earlier in the week.
Will these positive reports convince the MPC to ease up on its stimulus programs? We wonât know for sure until we see the committeeâs decision at 11:00 am GMT. Since the U.K. economy doesnât seem to have improved or deteriorated enough to warrant action, market players arenât expecting changes from the BOE. If that is indeed the case, then we might have to wait for the MPC meeting minutes before we find out what the members think of the recent reports.
If you canât wait for the MPC decision though, you might want to trade the Halifax house price index data out at 7:00 am GMT. The report is expected to show a 0.2% growth following last monthâs 1.1% reading, but youâll never know when you get upside surprises!
There is just no stopping the pound! It extended its gains against the dollar yesterday, stretching its winning streak to 4 days. GBP/USD rallied almost as soon as it opened at 1.5400. By the end of the New York session, the pair was up at 1.5600!
As expected the BOE rate statement didnât really surprise the markets. Rates were held steady at 0.50% and no changes were made on the bankâs asset purchases.
Outgoing BOE Governor Mervyn King and the rest of his crew think that the recovery will be sustained as weâll continue to see the effects of the bankâs previous asset purchases and the Funding for Lending scheme boost the economy.
Will the pound extend its winning streak to 5?
Be sure you keep tabs on the U.K. trade balance report due at 8:30 am GMT. A figure higher than the expected -8.8 billion GBP reading may just allow GBP/USD to sustain its move above 1.5600.