EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair traded uneventfully around its Friday’s high for most of this Monday, but managed to extend its gains up to 1.1392 during the American session, following FED’s Yellen words on a speech over current conditions and the outlook for the US economy in Philadelphia, in where she acknowledged the disappointing jobs´ report, but also reiterated that a rate hike is appropriate if the right conditions are met. Without saying much, Yellen tried to dismiss the relevance of one negative Payroll reading, although the market is not convinced now that the FED will be able to act this summer. Despite higher, the common currency has found little support in local data, as German Factory Orders fell by 2.0% in April compared to the previous month, far beyond the 0.6% decline expected. Compared to a year before, new orders fell by 0.5%. The EU Sentix Investor Confidence index, however, rose above expected, printing 9.9 for June, the highest for this 2016. The dollar saw a shortlived rally following Yellen’s words, resulting in the EUR/USD pair falling down to 1.1325, level that continues attracting buying interest. Now above the 50% retracement of its May’s slide, the pair is biased higher according to technical readings, as in the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA heads sharply higher above the 100 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have resumed their advances, despite being in overbought territory. Adding to technical readings is the negative sentiment towards the greenback that will probably persist until the upcoming FED meeting, next June 15th.
Support levels:1.1330 1.1280 1.1240
Resistance levels: 1.1415 1.1460 1.1500
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EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair trades flat for a second consecutive day, stuck around the 50% retracement of its May decline, the price zone reached after a horrid US Nonfarm Payroll report put the greenback in selloff mode. The pair held within Monday’s range, as a scarce calendar failed to motive investors. A review of the Eurozone Q1 GDP confirmed that the region grew 0.6% during the first three months of the year, whilst the most relevant piece of news coming from the US was the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index that dropped 0.5 points, or 1.0%, in June, posting a reading of 48.2 against 48.7 in May and expectations of 49.1. As for the technical picture, the pair has little directional strength, and there are good chances that it will continue trading range bound ahead of next week’s FED meeting. Overall, technical readings favor the upside, as in the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has extended its rally after crossing the 100 SMA and is about to advance beyond the 200 SMA, while the RSI indicator keeps consolidating in overbought territory, while the Momentum indicator keeps correcting extreme readings, heading south within positive territory. The line in the sand towards the downside stands at the 1.1280/90 region, where buying interest will likely surge on dips, whilst the critical resistance comes at 1.1460 a major long term static level.
Support levels:1.1330 1.1280 1.1240
Resistance levels: 1.1415 1.1460 1.1500
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EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair trades flat for a second consecutive day, stuck around the 50% retracement of its May decline, the price zone reached after a horrid US Nonfarm Payroll report put the greenback in selloff mode. The pair held within Monday’s range, as a scarce calendar failed to motive investors. A review of the Eurozone Q1 GDP confirmed that the region grew 0.6% during the first three months of the year, whilst the most relevant piece of news coming from the US was the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index that dropped 0.5 points, or 1.0%, in June, posting a reading of 48.2 against 48.7 in May and expectations of 49.1. As for the technical picture, the pair has little directional strength, and there are good chances that it will continue trading range bound ahead of next week’s FED meeting. Overall, technical readings favor the upside, as in the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has extended its rally after crossing the 100 SMA and is about to advance beyond the 200 SMA, while the RSI indicator keeps consolidating in overbought territory, while the Momentum indicator keeps correcting extreme readings, heading south within positive territory. The line in the sand towards the downside stands at the 1.1280/90 region, where buying interest will likely surge on dips, whilst the critical resistance comes at 1.1460 a major long term static level.
Support levels:1.1330 1.1280 1.1240
Resistance levels: 1.1415 1.1460 1.1500
EUR/USD
Risk aversion took over the financial world this Thursday, with stocks weakening, treasury yields reaching multimonth lows and gold rallying to a fresh 3week high. The catalyst beyond this sudden change in market’s sentiment was Chinese inflation data, up by 2.0% yearly basis, missing expectations of a 2.2% gain and below previous 2.3%. Monthly basis, inflation fell by 0.5%. The Producer Price Index showed an improvement, printing a 2.8% decline against previous 3.4%, improving as a result of higher commodity prices. Contracting inflation, revived fears of a local economic slowdown, and that it could quickly spread to other major economies. In the West, the calendar was again scarce, with only Germany releasing its April trade balance, which showed a surplus of €25.6 billion in April 2016, compared to a year earlier, when the surplus was of €21.8 billion, and the US publishing its weekly unemployment claims, which came in at 264K, beating expectations, for the week ending June 3rd. For a change, the dollar benefited alongside with gold and the Japanese Yen in a riskaverse environment, leading to a decline in the EUR/USD pair to a fresh weekly low of 1.1305. Having bounced modestly from this last, the technical outlook for the pair is bearish, although a break below the 1.1280/90 region is still required to confirm further slides. Technical readings in the 4 hours chart favor such decline, as the technical indicators have broken below their midlines, and stand at twoweek lows, although with limited downward strength due to the reduced volumes seen during the last hours of US trading.
Support levels:1.1280 1.1250 1.1210
Resistance levels: 1.1355 1.1380 1.1420
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EUR/USD
The American dollar recovered a good portion of the ground lost after the release of poor Nonfarm Payrolls data this past week, and in spite of chances of a FED rate hike remaining low. The US FOMC will have its economic policy meeting this week, and the decision will be unveiled next Wednesday, when the Central Bank is largely expected to remain on hold. Greenback’s gains by the end of the week, were underpinned by a raid of riskaversion, spurred by worsethanexpected Chinese data, which revived fears over a global economic slowdown.Fueling the dollar at the end of the week was the US University of Michigan consumer sentiment index that come in at 94.3 in June, slightly below the 94.7 previous, but above the 94.0 consensus. The macroeconomic calendar will be extremely light this Monday in Europe and the US, although the week will open with plenty of data coming from China, which will likely define market’s sentiment until the FED. From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair’s latest decline could have also been fueled by profit taking ahead of the major events including Central Banks and the Brexit referendum, but whatever the reason behind the retracement a bearish continuation is not yet confirmed, given that in the daily chart, the price is above the 20 SMA and 100 SMAs, which converge around 1.1220/30, the immediate support, whilst the technical indicators have turned lower, but are unable to confirm a downward breakout. In the 4 hours chart, however, the pair presents a clearer bearish momentum with indicators heading south near oversold levels, and the 20 SMA turning south around 1.1340.
Support levels:1.1225 1.1190 1.1160
Resistance levels: 1.1290 1.1340 1.1385
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EUR/USD
Risk aversion dominated the first half of the day, although sentiment improved after Wall Street’s opening, with US stocks and oil rising. The risk off environment weighed on Asian and European equities and safe havens gold and Japanese yen extended their gains. The American dollar extended its rally against its European rivals and the EUR/USD pair traded as low as 1.1231, but later bounced up to 1.1302, being unable to settle above the critical figure. The lack of macroeconomic releases, added to the upcoming risk events later this week, keeping most major pairs within limited intraday ranges.The EUR/USD pair holds near the mentioned 1.1300 level, but is overall looking bearish, as in the 4 hours chart, the rally stalled right below a sharply bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have corrected oversold readings reached earlier in the day, before turning flat within bearish territory. The EU will release its April´s production data this Tuesday, while in the US it will be the turn of Retail Sales, which may bring some action to the pair, although the most likely scenario is that investors remain in cautious mode ahead of the FED’s announcement next Wednesday. Should the pair settle above 1.1295, the 38.2% retracement of the May’s decline, the downside risk will be limited, with scope then to advance up to 1.1385.
Support levels:1.1250 1.1215 1.1170
Resistance levels: 1.1295 1.1340 1.1385
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EUR/USD
The American dollar rose against most of its major rivals, but those considered safehavens, such as the Swiss Franc and the Japanese yen, as market’s negative mood continued. The EUR and the Pound suffered the most, with the first down towards the 1.1200 region, barely 50 pips away from the preUS NFP report which triggered these last days’ bullish run, and the second flirting with the 1.4100 level. Fears over the result of the upcoming Brexit referendum has kept investors moving away from risk assets and running into safehavens, although the FX market entered waitandsee mode mid US session, ahead of the FED’s economic policy decision this Wednesday. The Central Bank is largely expected to remain on hold, but whatever the decision is, it will surely result in sharp moves across the forex board.Macroeconomic data was largely ignored, although generally encouraging. In the EU, Industrial Production rose by 1.1% in April, having declined by 0.7% in March. Retail Sales in the US beat forecast, increasing by 0.5% in May, below previous 1.3%, but above market’s expectations of a 0.3% advance. As for the EUR/USD technical picture, the risk is towards the downside, as the price is now below the 23.6% retracement of the May’s decline, around 1.1220, and below all of its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators have lost directional strength, but remain within negative territory. There is a daily ascendant trend line coming from November 2015 low, coming in at 1.1135 for this Wednesday, the first bullish target, should the FED raise rates. The critical resistance for this Wednesday, is around 1.1235, where in the daily chart, the 20 DMA converges with the 100 DMA, which means that a recovery beyond this area should favor additional gains up to the 1.1300 region.
Support levels:1.1210 1.1160 1.1120
Resistance levels: 1.1250 1.1295 1.1340
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EUR/USD
Markets were extremely thin at the beginning of the day, with the dollar easing alongside with riskaverse sentiment, and the EUR/USD pair recovering up to 1.1244, ahead of the US FED meeting. Once again, Yellen delayed a rate hike, and the dollar plummeted against all of its majors rivals, on news that FED members unanimously voted to live rates unchanged. The dot plot showed six officials look now for just one rate hike this year, while expectations are of three rate hikes in 2017 and another three in 2018. Growth forecast has been revised lower, to 2.0% from previous 2.2%, whilst they reckon that "the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up."During the press conference, Janet Yellen said that economic indicators have been mixed and that there´s no preset course for the economic policy. Nothing really new, but she also added that growth has posted a “sizable rebound” in the second quarter, but it has been “lackluster” according to her words. Also, she said that they expect core inflation will reach the 2.0% target over the next twothree years. During the press conference, and after being questioned, she added that a July hike “it’s not impossible” if data improves enough.The EUR/USD pair flirted with the 1.1300 level, but despite the dovish stance, the pair was unable to break above it and pullback to the 1.1250 region, meeting some buying interest around its 20 SMA in the 4 hours chart. The technical indicators in the mentioned time frame remain below their midlines, modestly retreating from them, whilst stronger selling interest remains around 1.1295, the 38.2% retracement of the May’s decline. Nevertheless, the FED has painted a gloomy picture, something that should keep the greenback under selling pressure.
Support levels:1.1245 1.1190 1.1140
Resistance levels: 1.1295 1.1340 1.1385
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EUR/USD
Markets were in a rollercoaster this Thursday, as adding to four Central Banks´ decisions in less than 24 hours, there were rumors pointing to a suspension of the Brexit referendum, after a British Parliamentary was shot dead in the street. David Cameron actually suspended the campaign activity for next week’s referendum on the country’s EU membership. The American dollar began to advance at the beginning of the London session, as after a dovish FED and BOJ’s inaction, investors’ attention flipped back to Brexit concerns. The greenback accelerated its advance when the Bank of England also decided to maintain its economic policy unchanged, and warned once again over the risk of a Brexit for the UK. Despite the US release some mixed macroeconomic data, high yielding currencies sunk, with the EUR/USD pair down to 1.1130, its lowest for the month. The common currency trimmed almost all of its daily losses after Brexit fears receded with the shooting, on speculation this will end up favoring the “remain” campaign, as the victim was proEU. Coldblooded, but market’s belief anyway. From a technical point of view, is quite interesting that the pair tested and bounced back from the daily ascendant trend line coming from November 2015 that also triggered a strong bounce once approached late May. In the 4 hours chart, the upward potential is still seen limited, given that the technical indicators have bounced sharply from oversold territory, but are not yet confirming and extension beyond their midlines, whilst the latest recovery stalled right below a bearish 20 SMA. The pair needs to settle above the 1.1245 to attempt a retest of the 1.1290/1.1300 region, and it will take a recovery beyond this last, to confirm a bullish continuation for this Friday.
Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120
Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1295 1.1340
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EUR/USD
Markets were in a rollercoaster this Thursday, as adding to four Central Banks´ decisions in less than 24 hours, there were rumors pointing to a suspension of the Brexit referendum, after a British Parliamentary was shot dead in the street. David Cameron actually suspended the campaign activity for next week’s referendum on the country’s EU membership. The American dollar began to advance at the beginning of the London session, as after a dovish FED and BOJ’s inaction, investors’ attention flipped back to Brexit concerns. The greenback accelerated its advance when the Bank of England also decided to maintain its economic policy unchanged, and warned once again over the risk of a Brexit for the UK. Despite the US release some mixed macroeconomic data, high yielding currencies sunk, with the EUR/USD pair down to 1.1130, its lowest for the month. The common currency trimmed almost all of its daily losses after Brexit fears receded with the shooting, on speculation this will end up favoring the “remain” campaign, as the victim was proEU. Coldblooded, but market’s belief anyway. From a technical point of view, is quite interesting that the pair tested and bounced back from the daily ascendant trend line coming from November 2015 that also triggered a strong bounce once approached late May. In the 4 hours chart, the upward potential is still seen limited, given that the technical indicators have bounced sharply from oversold territory, but are not yet confirming and extension beyond their midlines, whilst the latest recovery stalled right below a bearish 20 SMA. The pair needs to settle above the 1.1245 to attempt a retest of the 1.1290/1.1300 region, and it will take a recovery beyond this last, to confirm a bullish continuation for this Friday.
Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120
Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1295 1.1340
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EUR/USD
Market’s sentiment continued improving last Friday, although uncertainty over the upcoming Brexit referendum has kept majors within familiar ranges. The decision of several Central Banks to remain onhold last week, has been partially influenced by this upcoming event that could make the whole EU tumble. The EUR/USD closed near the higher end of its weekly range, just shy of 1.1300, as the dollar suffered from a dovish FED, which has delayed once again a rate hike. During the upcoming days, Janet Yellen will testify before the Congress, but given that it will be before the Brexit poll in the UK, market moves may be short lived. The macroeconomic calendar will be quite interesting these upcoming days, with the release of European PMIs, German’s ZEW survey and US Durable Goods, but once again, investors won’t pay much attention to the world’s economic health until pass the UK poll.As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it has bounced from a critical support, a long term ascendant trend line coming from 1.0505, November 2015 low, but has been unable to advance beyond the 38.2% retracement of the May’s slide around the 1.1300 figure. The daily chart presents a neutral stance, with technical indicators heading nowhere above, but above their midlines, and the price standing a few pips above 1.11245, a critical support in where the 20 and 100 DMA are currently converging. In the 4 hours chart, the pair presents a modest upward tone, as the price is standing above a mildly bullish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators also hold within bullish territory, but with no directional strength.
Support levels: 1.1245 1.1190 1.1140
Resistance levels: 1.1295 1.1340 1.1385
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EUR/USD
High yielders soared at the beginning of the week, as the “Bremain” intention vote took the lead according to the latest polls, released over the weekend. Thin liquidity and a lackluster macroeconomic calendar, however, saw majors retreating as the day went by, although the dollar remains broadly lower across the board. Europe released some local data, with the German PPI improving modestly in May, up by 0.4% compared the previous month, and down by 2.7% on a yearonyear comparison, from previous 3.1%. The common currency rallied up to 1.1382 against the greenback at the beginning of the day, but overall remained subdued, retreating towards the 1.1300 level ahead of Wall Street’s close, still above Friday’s close of 1.1278. Markets are all about the upcoming Brexit referendum, and will remain so, until the poll that will take place next Thursday. In the meantime, the 4 hours chart for the EUR/USD pair, shows that it was unable to settle above the 50% retracement of the May’s decline around 1.1360, where selling interest has steadily rejected attempts of advancing. Nevertheless and according to the same chart, the bias is generally bullish, as the price is well above its moving averages, whilst the Momentum indicator keeps heading north above its 100 line and the RSI indicator turned lower, but stands around 54. The immediate support comes around 1.1295, the 38.2% retracement of the mentioned decline, with a break below it favoring a deeper correction down to 1.1245.
Support levels:1.1295 1.1245 1.1210
Resistance levels: 1.1330 1.1365 1.1400
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EUR/USD
The financial world kept spinning around the upcoming Brexit referendum next Thursday, with mixed results coming from polls marginally favoring the “remain” side, and keeping risk sentiment on. Generally speaking, high yielders end up gaining against the greenback, while safehaven assets fell, although the EUR/USD pair plummeted to 1.1242, and remains nearby at the end of the day, finally filling the weekly opening gap. On two separated events, Central Banks’ heads, Draghi from the ECB and Yellen from the FED, gave testimony of the ongoing monetary policies before parliamentary commissions, offering cautious approaches ahead of the UK referendum. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen noted that the economy has picked up during the second quarter of the year, adding that low interest rates and job gains will likely support consumer spending. Draghi, on the other hand, said that the economy is expected to proceed at a moderate but steady pace, but added that inflation is expected to hover at low levels, and therefore “further stimulus is in the pipeline,” this last triggering EUR’s decline. Trading a few pips above the mentioned daily low, the 4 hours chart for the EUR/USD pair shows that the technical indicators have pared losses around their midlines, indicating the downward potential is still limited, despite the intraday decline. In the same chart, the price is currently below a bullish 20 SMA, which converges with the 38.2% retracement of the May’s decline, acting as immediate resistance around 1.1295. The pair will probably continue trading on sentiment rather than technical studies as the key UK date looms, with investors probably turning more cautious this Wednesday and keeping most major assets range bound.
Support levels:1.1245 1.1210 1.1160
Resistance levels: 1.1295 1.1330 1.1365
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EUR/USD
Liquidity plunged and major pairs remained confined to their early week’s ranges, as uncertainty reached new highs ahead of the upcoming Brexit referendum. A day before the UK finally votes, a couple of polls showed a small advantage of the “leave” side, pushing Wall Street into the red, but hardly affecting currencies. The American dollar is modestly lower across the board, while equities are mixed but not far from their daily opening levels, as the financial word awaits the key decision that will define the future of the economic union. The EUR/USD pair surged up to 1.1337 before settling around the 1.1300 figure, in spite of positive US data showing that existing home sales grew 1.8% in May, the strongest pace in over nine years, up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.53 million from a downwardly revised 5.43 million in April. Euro zone consumer confidence in June declined to 7.3, worse than the expected 7.1 and the previous 7.0.As the markets are waiting for the results, the EUR/USD pair technical picture remains neutral, as in the 4 hours chart, the price is hovering around a slightly bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have turned modestly higher, but remain within neutral territory. The pair is not expected to do much this Thursday, as the final results of the referendum will be out next Friday around 4:00 GMT, although a break below 1.1220 or above 1.1360, could see some wide directional move amid stops getting triggered.
Support levels:1.1245 1.1210 1.1160
Resistance levels: 1.1330 1.1365 1.1410
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GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair surged to a fresh yearly high of 1.4946 after London’s opening, underpinned by market’s optimism, after a UK betting agency said that odds of a Bremain were at 84%. The British Pound advanced against all of its major rivals, having advanced over 900 pips against the greenback in a bit less than two weeks, from the bottom at 1.4012 set last June 16th. After testing the mentioned high, the pair began retracing, but maintained the positive tone all through the day. Now standing above the 1.4800 level ahead of the results, the 4 hours chart shows that buying interest has surged on approaches to a strongly bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have turned flat within positive territory, supporting some further advances for this Friday. A positive result can see the pair surging back, up to the 1.5000 figure, although at this point, seems most of such outcome has been priced in. In the case of a Brexit, the pair will likely plummet towards 1.4500 and below, with the decline then set to extend into next week.
Support levels: 1.4800 1.4760 1.4720
Resistance levels: 1.4870 1.4915 1.4950
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair remained under selling pressure this Monday, in spite of US data which was for the most tepid, as markets continued focusing in the UK postreferendum consequences. The common currency fell sub 1.1000 early Europe, testing 1.0970 before bouncing modestly to end the day in the 1.1030 region, still in the red for the day. The EU released its monetary figures for May, showing that the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 4.9%, from 4.6% in April. In the US, the Goods Trade Deficit widened to $60.6 billion, worse than market’s expectations of $59.5 billion. Also, the June Flash Markit Services PMI showed that growth in the sector remained subdued in June, printing 51.3, unchanged from May’s final result. The Markit Flash Composite PMI Output Index registered 51.2 in June, up only fractionally from 50.9 in May.As all high yielders, the common currency is being weighed by the economic and political future of the region, after the UK voted to leave the EU. And despite turmoil has partially ease, it would take a long time for the markets to settle. The EUR/USD stands now around the 23.6% retracement of the Friday’s slide, and has been unable to advance beyond the 50% of it on an initial attempt to recovery, exposed therefore to extend its slide down to a major long term support in the 1.0800/40 region. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has extended its decline down to the mentioned 50% retracement, whilst the technical indicators have bounced modestly from oversold levels, but remain within negative territory, with no actual upward momentum that may suggest a steeper recovery for the upcoming days.
Support levels: 1.1000 1.0960 1.0920
Resistance levels: 1.1045 1.1080 1.1120
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EUR/USD
Safe havens eased, giving high yielding currencies a breath this Tuesday, as postBrexit panic paused. Nevertheless, the issue is hanging like a Damocles’ sword upon the financial world. Asian shares closed mixed, but European ones opened sharply higher and held on to sharp gains all day long. In the macroeconomic front, Germany released import and export prices indexes, with the first falling by by 5.5% in May compared to a year before, better than the 5.8% expected. Compared to April, the index advanced 0.9% also above expectations. Export prices decreased by 1.6% in their annual comparison, and advanced by 0.2% from the previous month. In the US, the final revision of Q1 GDP showed that the annual rate of growth was of 1.1%, below2015 Q4 of 1.4%, but better than initially estimated. US consumer confidence, surged to 98.0 against expectations of an advance up to 93.3. The market, however, is all about sentiment and little about data. The EU Prime Ministers have met in Brussels, but by the end of the US session, there was no official statement on the matter, and news only focused in the verbal battle between Junker, and Nigel Farage, the leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party who backed the Brexit. Technically, the EUR/USD pair maintains a negative bias, as the intraday recovery stalled right around the 38.2% retracement of its daily advance. Also, and in the 4 hours chart, a sharply bearish 20 SMA, capped intraday advances, and now stands around 1.1080, providing an immediate short term resistance, in the case of further gains. The Momentum indicator in the same time frame, has reentered negative territory after correcting overbought readings, whilst the RSI indicator consolidates around 42, all of which maintains the risk towards the downside, particularly on a break below 1.1020, the 23.6% retracement of the mentioned decline, and the immediate support, with scope then to test the 1.0910/30 region.
Support levels: 1.1020 1.0970 1.0930
Resistance levels: 1.1120 1.1160 1.1200
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EUR/USD
The American dollar traded softer across the board, as markets have now completely absorbed the initial Brexit shock. As panic subsided, stocks edged strongly higher worldwide, whilst commodities gained on broad dollar’s weakness. The foreign exchange market has continued trading on sentiment, following the positive mood of Asian trading, and still paying little attention to macroeconomic releases. In the meantime, the EU summit continued this Wednesday, with officials pushing the UK to activate the orderly exit mechanism as soon as possible, and the UK showing no rush to do so. In the data front, Germany released its May inflation figures, still close to zero. German headline inflation rose to 0.3% in June compared to a year before, and 0.1% compared to May. The GFK Consumer confidence survey, however, rose to 10.1 beating expectations of 9.8. In the US, personal income rose by 0.2% in May, whilst personal spending surged by 0.4%. Housing data, however, disappointed, with pending home sales down by 3.7% in May after advancing steadily for three straight months. As for the EUR/USD pair, it reached a fresh weekly high of 1.1130, but was unable to settle above the 1.1110 level, the 38.2% retracement of Friday’s slide, unable to confirm additional gains for the upcoming sessions. In the 4 hours chart, the price has been consolidating above a now flat 20 SMA at 1.1055, the immediate support, whilst the technical indicators lack directional strength within positive territory, limiting the downside, but without signaling a possible upward move. The pair has scope to extend its recovery up to the 1.1160/80 region, the 50% retracement of the mentioned decline and the postBrexit highs, although further gains are unlikely at this point.
Support levels: 1.1055 1.1020 1.0970
Resistance levels: 1.1130 1.1165 1.1200
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EUR/USD
It was a quiet start for the week given the US Independence Day holiday, which ensured thin trading conditions. The US dollar traded mixed across the board, while commodity currencies were among the best performers in the FX market.European stocks ended broadly down, but the euro managed to post mild gains, extending its recovery from postBrexit lows. EUR/USD continued to move with a bullish bias and it stabilized around 1.1150, having scored a daily peak of 1.1159 during the American session, although finding little followthrough beyond 1.1150. The pair needs to clear that area to extend the rally; a break would expose the 1.1200 1.1215 zone where 4 hours chart moving averages (100 and 200) are seen and also the 20 DMA. In the same time frame, price is being supported by the 20 SMA on the downside; a break below 1.1110 would favor a bearish correction. On the daily chart, a close below 1.1080 would add bearish pressure while to the upside a close above the 20 DMA at 1.1200 could see the pair achieving a more stable bullish tone.
Support levels: 1.1110 1.1070 1.1020
Resistance levels: 1.1175 1.1210 1.1235
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EUR/USD
The euro failed to hold above relevant technical levels against the US dollar during the New York session. The decline pushed the price below and shortterm uptrend line and the 1.1100 1.1080 support zone. A consolidation around current price could open the doors for more declines, with targets at 1.1020 (June 30 low) and then 1.0970 (June 28 low); below there, 1.0900/1.0920 would be exposed. In the shortterm the bearish bias is clear, with the 4 hours chart showing price below the 20 SMA, the Momentum indicator breaking under the 100 line and the RSI moving south toward the 30 level. However, a phase of consolidation could be expected before another leg lower. If the euro recovers and climbs back above 1.1160, it could regain strength and clear the way for a test of 1.1180. On a wider perspective the euro appears to be setting up a test of postUK referendum lows if it remains under 1.1100 as after being unable to rise above the region between 1.1160 1.1200, a correction seems more likely. On Wednesday the FOMC minutes will be released, but considering the meeting took place before the UK referendum, its impact could be limited.
Support levels: 1.1070 1.1020 1.0970
Resistance levels: 1.1120 1.1160 1.1210
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