Hi jui25,
Sorry, but your question is pretty general :), and I’d rather not write down everything again – I hope you’ll understand. Please read through the first part of my thread, where I describe the main cot signals that I watch and where I show you many examples for these.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C-36%, LS-32%, SS-24% /
COT Long-term Trend: DOWN
Large Speculators could not stay long, thus we may easily see the further widening of the cot extreme: Commercials heading back to above 20.000 contracts net long levels. If this is the case, we should expect prices to continue their decline, even if the change this time can be regarded as a bullish signal (but of course we should know by now:) that cot changes have a short lasting effect -> prices may rise for a few days).
Wheat (Chicago)
COT Change (52W) / C-24%, LS-20%, SS-30% /
COT Extreme / not far from all time COT extreme /
Both of our major cot signals are pointing upwards, a large change in traders positions and the extreme in the market. The last two extremes lasted for quite some time, so we may need to wait a bit for the rally to happen.
British Pound
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
Until we reach the bottom in prices of early this year, the preceding cot extreme is still in place and prices can continue their rally. If the mentioned level is broken and prices fall deeper, we may find ourselves in a similar situation as we had in Japanese Yen a few months ago, a Commercial Capitulation. Of course these rarely happen, so it’s not the scenario we should bet on.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Nasdaq-100
COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme /
The cot picture suggests that the rally we see in prices has come to an end, at least temporarily.
Silver
COT Extreme / C – 616 report, LS – 527 report COT extreme /
There’s an unquestionable bullish picture in metals now if we look at the cot report. The question is of course – as always – when would prices react?
Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / LS – 306 report COT extreme /
We know now, that the All Time COT extreme that developed at the end of 2012 did not produce a rally, but rather a rare situation that we call commercial capitulation. The extreme in this market is still present, yet we do not see the weakening of this decline.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C&LS 22% /
The latest cot report shows us that both the change in trader’s positions and the extreme in the market are painting a bullish picture. If we look at the longer term charts, we can see that NZD nicely reacted to these extremes. We may need to wait one or two more weeks, before the bottom develops, but it’s definitely getting closer.
Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS & SS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme is more evident here than in NZD. The COT report shows us that all major players in the market are at their all time extreme level. The picture is very bullish.
British Pound
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Seems that the cot extreme that developed a few months ago and which started to push prices higher is still widening. Prices should continue their rally.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 53%, LS 60% /
The large change in the commitments of traders report can be considered a bearish signal, so we may see a bit of a price decline. We can’t talk about a very large cot extreme, but there is a relative one if you just look at a shorter period of time, such as the one-year chart.
Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme is still widening even though prices have reacted to it many weeks ago. We can expect prices to go even higher.
Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture in the commitments of traders report is the same as last week, we have a beautiful All Time extreme situation. If you haven’t seen my earlier warnings, it is still not late to take a trade!
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 42%, LS - 53% /
If you remember, we talked about rough rice a few reports ago and now looking at the chart, we can see that the large cot change back then was a very nice bullish signal that resulted in a successful trade for anyone, who took it. This time, we have another large change, but it is a bearish signal. Since we are also close to a bullish cot extreme, the question is: which signal to follow (?). Well, the shorter, one year charts suggests that we should expect a decline in prices --> rough rice reacts to these large changes, so we may expect it to do so again. Of course we shouldn’t forget about the longer term picture too…
Crude Oil
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Even if Small Speculators seem to be pessimistic about this market (which usually is a bullish signal), the other two major participants are at cot extremes that have a bearish bias.
Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Another Commercial Capitulation? The pictures is very much similar to the once we had in Japanese Yen. We’ve got a huge (All Time) cot extreme, but prices seem to neglect the signal. If this is the case, we can expect a very serious decline in prices.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
I’ve never been much of a fan of the COTs for various reasons. It seems that its catching tops and bottoms, using 7 day old data. Plus the general concept of the COT is somewhat flawed but that would be a long essay.
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS - 31%, SS - 41% /
Large changes in Traders positions that have a bullish bias, but let’s not forget that the recent cot extreme triggered the down leg which may continue further. Analyzing the Volume and Open interest last week, we can see that it is also a bearish signal.
RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 26%, SS - 22% /
COT Extreme / C – 143 Report, LS – 144 report COT extreme /
Bullish picture supported by the large change in the commitments of traders report and also the cot extreme.
Copper
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a huge COT extreme (All Time) in Copper that is telling us: the decline in prices may be over soon.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 40%, LS - 53% /
It seems that we are witnessing again another large change in traders positions. The last couple of times the signals were affective, so we can expect prices to react to the recent one as well.
Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C – 121 Report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long).
Gold
COT Extreme / C – 601 Report, LS – 439 report COT extreme /
The stress level in Gold is extremely high… we’ve reached levels that we didn’t see for over ten years now. In my opinion, we are looking at an extremely bullish picture.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report
COT charts
Commitments of Traders basics
Good idea to trade along the larger market players so that we could be making more money with confidence.
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS - 26% /
A bit larger change then average, but I don’t think it deserves too much attention. What’s more interesting is that the extreme is again widening, which means the rally is still not over.
Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C ,LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week’s comment is still in place: “The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long).”
Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The All Time extreme situation in Australian Dollar has been present for over a month now and it seems that prices are starting to react.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
Why is here always a killjoy twot who thinks he/she knows better with an anal-ego which pushes them into pontification as an “I know better” expert (‘x’ is an undefinable quantity and a spurt is a drip under pressure.)
It just ruins a contribution started by someone who has the goodwill, like Dunstan, to help others.
If your so clever, mrchilled, here’s a polite suggestion. Why not make a constructive contribution yourself?
Keep up the good work, Dunstan.
pip-pip,
Hamish.
Hi Hamish,
I would like to thank you for your support, although I do feel a bit uncomfortable here:)
I have no problem with anyone and I respect all views shared on my threads, even if they are sometimes critical.
If mrchilled were to come back to the thread and wanted to discuss material on the cot report, I would be more than happy to be part of the discussion.
I’m glad that you are enjoying the thread Hamish, just let me know, if you have any questions!
All the best,
Dunstan
Your work is appreciated Dstan.
The latest data from the Cot Report do not seem to highlight a situation of too unbalanced sentiment. It seems to me that only on Aud there are some assumptions for a primary bottom.
very interesting, keep us updating! Eur/usd is strong buy(?), because myfxbook community is selling? If this client sentiment can be compared with COT…
Hi everyone,
Sorry, but it seems that COTbase.com did not post a new Commitments of Traders review this time. Anyhow, I will give you an update as usual:)
Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS - 22% /
The change in the cot report was large and suggesting a bearish move --> as we see it today, prices did decline a bit. The longer/wider picture on the other hand is still pretty bullish: Commercials are net long, which in most cases throughout Coffee’s history happened when prices were low.
Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Prices seem to support us --> the cot extreme may be in effect, thus we can expect the decline to continue.
Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Commercials and Large Speculators (unfortunately without Small Speculators being in extreme) are at an All Time extreme level in their net positions. This, as we can see in the past is a very bearish signal, so we can expect prices to continue their decline that started roughly two weeks ago.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi Marting,
If I may, I will ‘copy+paste’ my view on EUR that I’ve sent 11 days ago to a Friend of mine, just to save some typing for myself:) I believe that it is still in place -->
"[I]I understand your question. Unfortunately today, COT data will not help us determine the next move, since there is no extreme at the moment. In the last report, we had a relatively larger change in trader’s positions and this was a bullish signal, since commercials moved towards the long side of the market. Of course, this will not help us determine directions for a longer period of time, but it did help for the first couple of days of the week.
If you look at the chart below, I tried to mark all the major cot extremes that happened in the last few years. These were significant stresses in the market, when the picture was more clear. I’m not saying that only large, close to All Time cot extremes will effect prices, but they are definitely more reliable signals then relative (smaller) cot extremes.
The last major extreme, as you can see on the chart, was a bullish extreme, which in my opinion is still in place. There were relative extremes afterwards, when LS went under 0 line, but price reaction (decline) was short living. I think to get an unquestionable bearish cot extreme signal, we need Commercials to reach at least 150.000 contracts net short level / Large Speculators reaching at least 100-120.000 contracts net long level.
The level of extreme we have now, does not allow us to get a clear direction --> I advise you to consider scaling out of your EUR/USD position and look towards other markets, where the cot data is giving us more support.[/I]"
All the best,
Dunstan
Such a negative sentiment from Aud on the Cot Report never occurred even in 2008. It’s evident that the trend has changed, but now the chances of a rebound are quite high.
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 22%, SS – 30% /
The change size in recent cot report and the relative extreme that we’re at suggests a bottoming of prices soon. Since we are not at a major extreme level, which would be a clearer signal to act on, we should be careful with a long trade.
Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
All market participants are at All Time or close to All Time extreme levels in their net positions. This means that stress levels are very high in Australian Dollar --> the bubble should burst our sooner or later. Of course the big question is as always: when?
S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The COT Extreme in Indexes is getting larger and larger as prices are moving higher. In my opinion the rally will continue into September and we will get much larger extremes before we reach the top.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
