Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 22%, SS – 30% /
Having no extreme in the market, it is only the cot change signal that we can act on. The change in Traders positions was significant, much larger than usual. It is a bullish signal that may influence prices in the near future. Analyzing the effectiveness of cot change signals in heating oil, we can come to the conclusion that the signals are pretty effective.
Platinum
COT Extreme / C – 71 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
There is an unquestionably large cot extreme in the market (LS have never been so optimistic about the market as they are today). It would be nicer if SS were as extreme, but never the less, it is still something to talk about! Ohh, if anyone is unsure, we are talking about a bearish cot signal here:) As always, my warning: all time cot extremes can be present in a market for even months before price reaction, so be careful, pleeeease!
Soybeans
COT Extreme / C – 405, LS – 225 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
What a beautiful picture we have in Soybeans!! All major participants of the market hold extremely large net positions… (bullish cot extreme signal) If you look at the charts for all soybeans market, you’ll see how well they react to cot extreme signals, so I’m personally really excited now!
RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 28%, SS – 22% /
The change in Traders positions was significant, we can talk about a cot change signal. It is bullish and looking at the last one year, we can see that in the majority of cases, these signals could effectively be used.
Soybeans
COT Extreme / C – 429, LS – 226 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme is becoming larger and larger. It is of course extremely difficult to tell, when the decline will end, but it is pretty clear that stresses in this market will soon burst and eventually create a bottom.
Silver
COT Extreme / C – 196, LS – 198 report COT extreme /
Not too long ago we were talking about a bullish cot extreme, but as you can see, things can change pretty fast in the market we are now seeing a bearish extreme. This is a warning for those of you, who took the bullish signal earlier and built up a long position.
Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 13%, SS – 18% /
The largest change in Commercials positions was in Heating Oil this week, so we definitely have a cot signal that we can act on. Of course examining the chart closer, we can see that two weeks ago we had an even greater change that most probably already influenced prices and that is why we see rising prices. You may ask logically if this is gonna continue? Well the extreme situation in the market also supports further rises in Heating Oil I believe.
Euro
COT Change (52W) / C – 14%, LS – 16% /
COT Extreme / C –99, LS – 86, SS – 110 report COT extreme /
The change signal and the extreme we have in Euro both point upwards… If you look at small specs, you can find them as pessimistic about the market as they were back in mid 2012 when we Euro reached an important bottom. Prices may of course continue their fall, but I don’t think it would last too long…
Soybeans
COT Extreme / C – 430, LS – 406 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
Do I really need to say anything here? The pictures says it all!! (unquestionable large cot buy signal)
I’ll be out for a summer holiday during the next two reports, so sorry in advance for not posting. I’ll be back for the 32nd cot report this year.
Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 26%, SS – 10% /
The only clear signal we have in mxp right now is the cot change signal, which is bullish. After the relative bearish extreme we had, we are moving fast towards another bullish extreme.
Dow Jones-30
COT Extreme / C – 212, LS – 359 report COT extreme /
The bullish cot extreme we’ve got here suggest that prices will continue the rally… We will see.
Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 95, LS – 91 report COT extreme /
The picture is pretty obvious: judging by the past reactions of cotton after such extremes, we should expect the downtrend to end soon.
Palladium
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 26%, SS – 10% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Both of our major cot signals this week are producing strong bearish signals. The change was quite large besides having all time extreme both in Commercials and Large specs positions. The question may be: should we start shorting the market? Well that’s up to your system to decide, but keep in mind, that these all time cot extreme are capable of being present in a market for some time before any price reaction.
Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 37, LS – 141 report COT extreme /
The extreme has become large again, has a reached a level where we can start considering a trade. It would be nicer if SS were also in a align with LS and C, but nevertheless, we have a supporting cot report for thinking long.
Euro
COT Extreme / C – 107, LS – 106 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a considerable extreme in C and LS and an unquestionable large extreme in SS. It is of course a bullish picture, but again, I need to repeat what I just said in my analysis on Palladium: these extremes can stay for long, widen even more before any change in the trend. Still, it’s good to know that we have such stresses in the Euro, cause we can start thinking of a possible long trades.
Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS – 23%, SS – 36% /
Without having a significant extreme in the market, it’s only the cot change signal that we can act on. The change in traders position was very large, so the signal is good, but it might be that we received it a bit late.
Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The all time extreme we can see in this markets is telling us: warning!! The fuel in this rally is running out. Well yes, it is, but let’s not forget about the fact that all time extremes can be present in a market for many weeks or even months before any change happens in the trend.
Coffee
COT Extreme / C – 337, LS – 338 report COT extreme /
We are seeing a huge extreme in Coffee that is indicating a price fall. Will it happen in the near future or only in a matter of weeks, months… well it is hard to tell. We can see that a few months ago, the level of extreme was similar, prices fell a bit, but now they are once again rising. If this rally continues, we should see the widening of the extreme.
Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 26%, SS – 17% /
The cot change signal is clear, indicating a possible drop in prices, while the cot extreme signal is not strong, although still more bearish than bullish.
Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The all time cot extreme is still present in Palladium, but if you remember what I said last week, this should not be a surprise. I’d recommend you analyze other metal markets also to get a picture of metals in general. We may see Palladium further strengthen, until we get similar bearish signals elsewhere. Let’s not forget about the existing correlation between these markets.
Soybeans
COT Extreme / C, SS – All Time, LS – 412 report COT extreme /
The extreme in Soybeans is unquestionably large, but we don’t seem to see any reaction from price yet. Patience I say:), patience…
I have not talked to you for a while, only looked your reports. Hope your trading is going well. I have a question though as you make your reports very long. Is there a website/link where I can get the actual COT Index? I would like to use the cot index and not the net positions for a measurement but I do not find it.
I use cotbase.com for my cot analysis, they show the cot index for each trader category. I don’t know how other services do it, but here it is simply a number, showing you at what level it is at.
I have attached a chart for better understanding, I hope it will help!
It’s important you know, that you can set the so called lookback period. For a shorter term trader, a 1-2 year lookback period may be enough, but for a longer term trader I would recommend you to use at least a 3 years lookback period.
thanks for the fast answer. It explains it good. I have one problem though. I do not have the setting you posted above my chart. Do you pay for the site? Are you registered? I only have the charts but cannot change anything and do not have any setting option.
The weekly COT-report for the most part is useless for trading as the data is heavily delayed. Sure, you can build nice crossover-systems around it, with mediocre performance, if any. But the real edge comes if you can analyze the positioning of other players in realtime. And that’s exactly what the system does I am using…
You are very welcome! Your assumption was correct, I am a subscriber of the service. They’ve got a good video explanation, I think you should see it. You’ll get a brief picture of what kind of tools they have to offer: HOW TO USE? | COTbase.com
Thank you for joining the thread! Your real time system sounds VERY interesting. I’m assuming that it doesn’t give you similar data as the cot report, so tell me, what is it exactly?
The cot report is delayed, true, but (!) who cares, if you are a swing trader for example? It really doesn’t matter that much. Of course, I hope one day we will have cot report daily, or even better, real time!
well, it’s an orderbook system, created for hedgefunds. in short, it analyzes the orderbook and trades upon it. that’s what makes it consistent.
the timeframe doesn’t matter. it makes hardly any difference if you wait two hours for your 200 pip winner or two days, same with losses. you have to let your winners run and cut your losers short anyway.
the point is that 95% of the traders out there (especially the retail traders) make trading decisions based upon wrong information and bad (or at least delayed) data. and that’s why they lack consistency.
In my experience, the cot report really helps you measure the stresses in markets. The market is not only traded by hedge funds… the cot report shows positions of all main Trader categories. That’s something extra. How else would you know for example that large speculators in Rough Rice built up such large positions (Short) that they have never held in their entire history (cot history)? That is information that you can get from the report, it is value.
Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 25%, SS – 12% /
Not much to say hear, since we’ve only got a change signal, no extreme. The change was large, so it may influence prices this week in a positive way (= pushing prices higher)
Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
As you can see, last week we’ve witnessed a significant price decline, so it may be that prices have reached their top already. If so, we shouldn’t be surprised, knowing how extreme the market is. Of course it is also unnecessary to be disappointed if you haven’t entered the trade, in the long term there is still profit to me made on this decline. Question is: are we really over the top? This will be answered only is some weeks’ time, when stress levels change: if they further increase, we may see further strengthening of Palladium, if stress levels start to shrink, we should see the continuation of the decline.
Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1144 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
What a beautiful extreme we have here:) Do I really need to write anything --> the charts tell it all:) For anyone new here, I’ll explain: the cot extreme is HUGE and if you look at the chart, RR usually reacted to these large cot extreme signals. I’m expecting prices to rally soon.
New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 43%, LS – 43%, SS – 34% /
COT Index (3yr.) / C – 82%, LS – 18%, SS – 27% /
Both of our major cot signals this week are very bullish. The change in Traders positions was very large and with large movement, their positions have reached an extreme territory where we need to be cautious. If you look at the chart, you can see how well this currency reacted to these major extremes in the past. I’m expecting price to reach a bottom soon.
Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1145 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme has grown larger, we’re still waiting for the rally:)
Soybeans
COT Extreme / C, SS – All Time, LS – 415 report COT extreme /
Incredibly large cot extreme in Soybeans… Looking at the chart, there is no question that we are expecting a bottom, but (!) be careful, they extreme is capable of widening even more, or we may even witness a commercial capitulation. There is little chance for that, but it’s always amongst the possibilities.
Palladium
COT Change (52W) / C – 52%, LS – 56% /
This was a large change is Traders positions, but hey (!), let’s not forget about the cot extreme situation that we were in a few weeks ago… the decline we are witnessing now is a consequence of that extreme. So what I’m trying to say is that we may see prices bounce back up, but the medium/longer term picture still looks bearish.
Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1146 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme has grown larger, prices have started to rise a bit.
USD Index
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
When we have such an extreme in a market, commercials and large specs holding positions that they have never held before, then I feel a little bit uncomfortable about what to say:) This picture is so very clear: we have a very large bearish cot signal that will – with high probability, nothing more – end the rally.
Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 14%, SS – 31% /
COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 85%, LS – 15%, SS – 21% /
The picture has become nice and bullish here in the Mexican Peso: we have a reasonably large change in Traders positions, giving us a bullish cot signal and also we are getting really close All Time extreme levels.
Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 411, LS – 396 report COT extreme /
The extreme has become HUGE, we should be getting ready for another rally here!
RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C – 64, LS – 211 report COT extreme /
The bullish extreme signal suggests that we should see higher prices soon, but of course the dynamics of last week’s decline should make us cautious with entering the trade.
