Wow! Let me read through these posts to catch up a bit.
Fortunately for me, I’ve been out for a few days and haven’t been able to trade. The reason I say this, there were 3 setups that would have failed right in a row for USDJPY for strat #2.
Tonight, however, I decided to go ahead. Here’s my trade on the Daily TF.
Trade was triggered and I’m sitting at +4 pips at the moment. I’ll update as soon as it succeeds or fails! In the meantime, I’ll go through all your trades. Technically the 3SMA didn’t create a ‘hill’ but that pinbar is hard to resist
599GTO, technically, yes, look for a pullback to at least 38.2 to validate the 127+ extension. I make sure that price is respecting Fib lines to strengthen my resolve.
Vijaim,
Unfortunately 599GTO is right. If you look at the Daily Time frame, you’ll notice the pull back setup is beyond the 78.6 Fib level, which nullifies the trade. But this is what I’m talking about as well. You’ll see price respected the 50 level first, and now it respected the 61.8 and 78.6 level in one candle. I’ll talk more about it tomorrow when i have more time.
Because I’m an idiot and didn’t read my rules before placing the trade needless to say, I closed the trade at -1 pip. Thanks for catching it for me, could have ended up losing a lot more than 1 pip
I think lack of sleep and not reading my rules is where I went wrong. See what I mean, write up your own set of rules, and read them before entering each trade, no matter how well you think you know your system!
Thx for saving me a headache 599GTO!
To be honest, I’m not quite understanding what you’re showing us. But technically, if there’s a reason something is invalid, then yes, you would start your analysis over from the lower high.
So that USDJPY trade #2 got stopped out at breakeven. Nothing lost, nothing gained. +51 pips total for this trade, at 2.5% of my account balance. Not too shabby of a trade!
Now, for a few tricks or ideas I’ve been toying around with. For P1, often price respects Fibonacci Levels and we end up missing on golden opportunities. I’ve been trying to find a way to apply some of the ideas for P2 to work with P1 but I get 1/2 wins 1/2 losses. Here’s what I’m thinking:
Use confluence - areas in the past where Fibonacci Levels line up. For this, I’m thinking 50 candles in the past should be more than enough to gauge any confluence areas. Using this technique, I’ve been able to increase the likelyhood of a good trade, however, there are still great chances that are missed.
If we wait until price respects a Fibonacci Level, then get in the trade, again, we get about a 50/50 chance of a successful trade. Consider this, price is moving up, retraces down and respects say the 61.8 Fibonacci Level. We set a pending buystop at the high of the candle that respected the level. The only problem with this is the stop loss tends to be too small.
Those are just a few things I’m working on to improve P1. I’m meticulously backtesting based on these ideas with mixed results. If anyone has any other suggestions to help please fire away!
Right you are, 599GTO. I was just logging on to post up the trade I JUST entered on EURUDS, Daily Time frame!
Entry: 1.2773 (was able to enter right at the Fib Level, didn’t need to follow the 30% rule as price was already below it!)
SL: 1.2721 (52 pips)
TP1: 1.2825 (52 pips)
TP2: 1.2947 (P1 trade set here!)
Will post results as they happen!
There’s also a P1 setup occuring on AUDJPY. See if you can find the entries and I’ll verify them for you
I still used the 30% rule and it didn’t trigger. Price has now pushed down again and just approaching 132.8. Will keep watching for where it closes tonight.
I should have followed my own advice and stuck to the 30% rule! Trade got stopped out and lost 104 pips! Grr!
New setup occurring now though on the same pair. Price is respecting the 150% extension. Setup your trade using the 30% rule and it should have been triggered.
SL 56 pips
TP1 56 Pips
TP2 (no P1 setup so I’m going for 700+ pips at the 261.8 fib extension!)
needless to say, I closed the trade at -1 pip. Thanks for catching it for me, could have ended up losing a lot more than 1 pip 