Forex Price Action

[EJ_2301]

Yep looks solid area to get long on daily to me…

thanks Johnathon for your quick response. I really appreciate to hear from you

EJ

[machal]

@EJ_2301

Is this also A+ setup?
anyone took this trade?

EJ

Hey, from this level you should look long but pin bar must be inversely

Cheers

[EJ_2301]

How about this setup on Silver H4?
the PB is a little bit small compare to other candle, and it is not with the trend. Still hope some input from others here.
I really like to learn.
thanks
EJ

[Spongybob]

There you have your two reasons to not trade. :35:

[EJ_2301]

Hey, from this level you should look long but pin bar must be inversely

Cheers

I was thinking the price break the support and will continue to drop.

But however, lesson learned, it means this is not A+ setup.
Thanks machal

EJ

[varnuunas]

How about shorting gbp jpy H1. Looks like price rejected the daily level.

[NorwoodFX]

How about shorting gbp jpy H1. Looks like price rejected the daily level.
<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>

That chart looks beautiful. Strong downtrend, that’s for sure. But why do you think about going short? Following the trend?

“Vi veri universum vivus vici.”

[michalkraus]

take a look on daily, see the TREND, I wouldnt risk it.

[varnuunas]

Have seen that and changed my mind.

[Paddymctaff]

daily trend doesn’t matter, think how many trends there are on the 1hr during the course of a daily trend. a small pullback on the daily could be a perfect and significant trend on the hourly.

[filipl]

@Gangman_style

Oh, I almost forgot, we shoudn`t open position on friday and sunday after midnight right even we have signal?

This is about taking trades from intraday charts (lower than 1-day) as they are skewed in terms of covering positions before the weekend and low liquidity right after the weekend. It’s OK according to this method to trade from 1-day and longer charts on Fridays/Mondays although you need to be aware that some brokers will have much higher spreads during these periods (late_Friday-through_the_weekend-early_Mondays)!

@varnuunas

How about shorting gbp jpy H1. Looks like price rejected the daily level.

It looks like you were fairly beginning with this method, Varnuunas (apologies if I’m incorrect). Why not to start with 1-day charts instead of 1-hour ones?

Fil.

[str8]

I can see that you risked about 16% on one particular trade ($80/$500) which I think is highly [B]overrisked[/B]. It will create huge tense on your emotion and It will likely lead you to revenge trading. I suggest you to reconsider/restudy your money management plan by risking lesser % on your account. For me, I never risk more then 3% of my acccount size on a trade. This helps alot in reducing volatility and drawdown on account.

I think it’s a good idea to risk a small % because he’s a beginner.

But when he will have more experience and he will estimate more correctly what is his probability of win and how much does he win in average (the reward:risk ratio) he can risk a bigger %.

For instance, let’s say the probability to win is 0.7 and the reward:risk ratio is 1:1. Let’s say you want to risk 10%.
If you use this calculator (change the loss level to 100%)
Risk of Ruin and Drawdown Calculation Tool | Au.Tra.Sy blog - Automated trading System
you will find the risk of ruin is only 0,02%

Moreovor that calculator assumes you always risk the same amount. For instance if you have $500 you always risk $50.
If you risk a % of your account instead of a fixed amount you can risk even more.

The maximum % you can risk in order to have risk of ruin close to 0 can be determined using the kelly criterion.

The KC is f = (bp - q) / b
where b is the payout in b:1 format, p is the chance to win, q is the chance to lose

Now I will determine the KC for my example. 0.7 probability to win , 1:1 payoff
f = 70% - 30% = 40%

Of course KC is too agressive, and while the risk of ruin is close to 0 there is a big chance you will lose a lot of your account if you use it. I prefer to use a fraction of Kelly. For instance if KC is 40% I may risk 15%. If the probability to win estimated and the payoff are not far from reality I don’t overrisk if I risk 15%.

From what I understand the strategies that you use (A+ trades) are high probability trades. I think you will not win as much as you can if you only risk 3% using these high probability trades.

The hard part I think is to estimate the probability to win and how big is your payoff in average.

[forex4worth]

@Forex_School_Online

Hello my name is Johnathon Fox.

I am a professional trader and trade solely using high probability Price Action signals from very good levels alsong with strict money management and a few techniques to protect capital at all times. Most of my trading is done of the 4hr and daily charts.

The Price Action trading method I use is very clear and simple and something others can learn very easily. I have not invented this method and everything I teach is something I have learned from someone else and have perfected to suit myself. I am a very straight forward and simple person and have tweaked my trading technique to reflect that.

Price Action trading has been around for a long time and will be around for a long time to come. Unlike other indicators and black box systems Price Action trading does not stop working when the markets change! Traders who learn this method will have a trading method for life!

I have now committed myself to helping other traders learn how to trade Price Action and how they can drag themselves out of the indicator hole! Nearly everyone starts with indicators until they work out that they simply do not work and learning to read price action and how it behaves is the key to successful trading.

I hope everyone enjoys this thread. This thread is for anybody who wants to trade successfully using nothing but raw price! Please read the instructions below and please feel free to comment and ask questions. I started this thread for everyone to join and get involved so please don’t worry about asking any questions at all! We have all been new traders once and I will make sure everybody is treated fairly and in an friendly environment where people can learn and feel safe to ask any questions.

EDIT:

INSTRUCTIONS FOR FOREX PRICE ACTION THREAD. PLEASE READ BEFORE POSTING.

Please read the first 50 pages minimum before posting. A ton of information can be found in these first few pages that will show you what we do and how we do it. There is also videos in the first few pages that will explain clearly the simple price action setups we look for and how to trade them.

This thread is for Price Action discussions only. Please do not post about indicators or news. There are plenty of other threads where traders can discuss this info.

We are only concerned with high probabily Price Action setups that form at great levels. If you are after a thread that simply enters inside bars and hopes to make money this is not it. There are other threads for that.

We are not about making a million trades but making a few really great ones that have a high probability with low risk!

When posting please include charts to explain what you are looking at. The charting equipment we use is New York close 5 day charts charts. If you need a link to open a free MT4 broker please just message me as this is very easy. A few MT4 providers with these charts in demo are FXDD, FXpro, Pepperstone, Axi Trader and HotForex…

If you have any questions that can’t be answered in this thread you can either PM me or email me direct.

Safe trading and all the success,

Johnathon Fox
Forex School Online

Hello) First of all i would like to say thanks to you for helping out new bies like me and others.But one thing you didnt tell us for us is how to to put stop loss and take profit levels on a chart.You told us in the begining that you use stricit money management.Look at the USDCHF 4 hour chart below with a clear bearish pin bar which i traded few minutes ago and tell me how should i put my stop loss and take profit on this?

[allarigs]

Hi

Not sure how the trade will go but its one of the trade i will not take. For me you entered in to Resistance and price seems to be consolidating hence not very clear to me on how the breakout will be.

[varnuunas]

Nice looking pinbar 1.2700 level

[Gangman_style]

I think it’s a good idea to risk a small % because he’s a beginner.

But when he will have more experience and he will estimate more correctly what is his probability of win and how much does he win in average (the reward:risk ratio) he can risk a bigger %.

For instance, let’s say the probability to win is 0.7 and the reward:risk ratio is 1:1. Let’s say you want to risk 10%.
If you use this calculator (change the loss level to 100%)
Risk of Ruin and Drawdown Calculation Tool | Au.Tra.Sy blog - Automated trading System
you will find the risk of ruin is only 0,02%

Moreovor that calculator assumes you always risk the same amount. For instance if you have $500 you always risk $50.
If you risk a % of your account instead of a fixed amount you can risk even more.

The maximum % you can risk in order to have risk of ruin close to 0 can be determined using the kelly criterion.

The KC is f = (bp - q) / b
where b is the payout in b:1 format, p is the chance to win, q is the chance to lose

Now I will determine the KC for my example. 0.7 probability to win , 1:1 payoff
f = 70% - 30% = 40%

Of course KC is too agressive, and while the risk of ruin is close to 0 there is a big chance you will lose a lot of your account if you use it. I prefer to use a fraction of Kelly. For instance if KC is 40% I may risk 15%. If the probability to win estimated and the payoff are not far from reality I don’t overrisk if I risk 15%.

From what I understand the strategies that you use (A+ trades) are high probability trades. I think you will not win as much as you can if you only risk 3% using these high probability trades.

The hard part I think is to estimate the probability to win and how big is your payoff in average.

Thank you, I think first what I have to do is to change my broker, becouse is on GMT time… and this 80$ I lost when I have on my chart good signals but on Pepperstone (for example I opened) there wasnt any signals for go.... there is a large discrepancy between charts and times. I didnt want to go with foreign broker becouse my english isn`t such a good to talk per phone, but obviously I must do this step… thanks people for everything

[Spongybob]

WOW, talk about keeping it simple! :22:

I think it’s a good idea to risk a small % because he’s a beginner.

But when he will have more experience and he will estimate more correctly what is his probability of win and how much does he win in average (the reward:risk ratio) he can risk a bigger %.

For instance, let’s say the probability to win is 0.7 and the reward:risk ratio is 1:1. Let’s say you want to risk 10%.
If you use this calculator (change the loss level to 100%)
Risk of Ruin and Drawdown Calculation Tool | Au.Tra.Sy blog - Automated trading System
you will find the risk of ruin is only 0,02%

Moreovor that calculator assumes you always risk the same amount. For instance if you have $500 you always risk $50.
If you risk a % of your account instead of a fixed amount you can risk even more.

The maximum % you can risk in order to have risk of ruin close to 0 can be determined using the kelly criterion.

The KC is f = (bp - q) / b
where b is the payout in b:1 format, p is the chance to win, q is the chance to lose

Now I will determine the KC for my example. 0.7 probability to win , 1:1 payoff
f = 70% - 30% = 40%

Of course KC is too agressive, and while the risk of ruin is close to 0 there is a big chance you will lose a lot of your account if you use it. I prefer to use a fraction of Kelly. For instance if KC is 40% I may risk 15%. If the probability to win estimated and the payoff are not far from reality I don’t overrisk if I risk 15%.

From what I understand the strategies that you use (A+ trades) are high probability trades. I think you will not win as much as you can if you only risk 3% using these high probability trades.

The hard part I think is to estimate the probability to win and how big is your payoff in average.

[Merchantprince]

Thought I would share a trade I just took last night. This was a price action setup on UJ. Normally I trade off the Daily and 8H charts and draw my SR lines from the Daily and Weekly. However, when price nears an SR line I have also been glancing at the 4H charts to see if an engulfing or pin bar is occurring on that chart.

UJ broke through a weekly Resistance line I had drawn, then had come back to retest the line as Support. On the 4H chart price did come back and form a bullish pin bar. I entered the trade and am currently +60 pips, which is 1:1 ratio. My target is 1:2 ratio, +120 pips.

[DayTraderDad]

Hi - great thread. After reading this thread (currently up to page 125) I realize that I have been seriously overtrading! Now I’m trying to be much more selective. I’ve got rid of all indicators and will just be using price action. I’ve been watching the EUR-CAD H4 chart today and I’m thinking of shorting it…

[Spongybob]

Nice going there Merchantprince

I saw that setup yet did not take the trade as I was hoping for that kind of pin closer to support. Nice reading of the market though.

@Merchantprince

Thought I would share a trade I just took last night. This was a price action setup on UJ. Normally I trade off the Daily and 8H charts and draw my SR lines from the Daily and Weekly. However, when price nears an SR line I have also been glancing at the 4H charts to see if an engulfing or pin bar is occurring on that chart.

UJ broke through a weekly Resistance line I had drawn, then had come back to retest the line as Support. On the 4H chart price did come back and form a bullish pin bar. I entered the trade and am currently +60 pips, which is 1:1 ratio. My target is 1:2 ratio, +120 pips.