And now for MY ‘junk’ Oliver1968!!! LOL!!! Only taking the ‘pi*s’ with you (as always) but goldenmember did do a stirling job of that post. Anything after that is a sort of ‘anti-climax’ really!!!
I never saw this last night while I was posting.
And the alternative is… It could go NOWHERE!!! LOL!!!
As of RIGHT NOW at my time of posting it’s trading at 1.2677/1.2681. How do I know??? Here’s a little ‘pressie’ that I normally give out from time to time (usually after it’s ended up in some ‘corpse thread’ somewhere):
Those are live Interbank Spot Rate (live as in 24/7 i.e. including weekends). All you have to do is click of the ‘Refresh’ button when you want to see if the rate has changed.
What’s REAL nice about that site (and there’s another in New Zealand) is that you can get VERY long term charts of just about any currency in the world vs. just about any other currency in the world. They’re simple charts but I’ve used them to demonstrate to those ‘talented few’ that say to not trade with stops and keep adding to a losing position because 'the trade will eventually come back to break even or better JUST how wrong they can be!!! LOL!!!
Anyway: at this stage it doesn’t look like there’s going to by ANY gap (maybe a pip or two)!!! So ‘that is that’ (for now).
I used to use that site when I was trading Spot FOREX to know whether I was GOING to be laughing or crying at the open!!! LOL!!!
The only thing I’ve noticed TODAY is that the chart data is not available for some reason (below the rate data). And they’ve changed the colours of their website which are REALLY just a ‘tad’ ‘hard on the eyes’. It’s also a good place to check rates if you ‘suspect’ your brokers rates (during the day).
So in all probability: the only gap I’m going to see is on the CAC40. Sorry ‘chasps’!!! LOL!!! But note: EVEN THAT is no ‘guarantee’ of a gap i.e. the FUTURES could gap an hour before the actual market opens but could trade right back down to their open so that when the market opens nothing happens. Just some useful (useless???) insights for Spot FOREX traders is all.
No. VW doesn’t stockpile euros. They stockpile “dollars”.
They are a European country doing business in the US. Their forex trips are one way. You think they would swap out a few billion at 1.49? A 0.10 drop in the euro nets them an awful lot of cash that they didn’t need manpower, or inventory for.
Boeing, Caterpillar, Ford, etc. stockpile euros, and wait for the boat to lean to the other side. Think they would trade euros for dollars at 1.10? No, they’ll wait until 1.45. None of those guys really factor into the market moving equation via the COT, because their money isn’t really in the market until the market favors them.
Well after all that I decided to make 1 trade just to see. I have no worries though as I only placed 1 of Oanda’s finest units. 1 ten thousandth of a dollar so not really a trade more of an experiment to see slippage and whatnot,
Interesting to note though is that I place the trade several hours ago, it is only 2.9 pips down.
(was 10 when I opened the trade) but Oanda have widened there usual 10 pip weekend spread to 20 pips, I wonder if they
know something I don’t…well yes I know they know more but in the figure of speech!!
Hence what D-pip said about the REASONS why commercial hedgers being record long on euro is wrong isn’t it? If anything they are stockpiling DOLLARS longs NOT EURO longs like you say - but guess what, commercial hedger DOLLAR SHORTS are at a high. Basically COMMERCIAL HEDGERS are NOT Boeing, Caterpillar, Ford which was implied and you are still implying.
23 pip profit so far! + oanda’s got 20 pip spread! looks like trading has started early today,
order was executed at market value this morning!
oops, spoke too soon! 10 pip profit now!..4 now!
12 now, it’s moving as I type!!!
Unrealised P&L 0
good old 1 unit!
14.3 now!
I didn’t imply that Boeing, nor anyone else were commercial hedgers.
What I said was, their money was usually sidelined until the market favored them.
Don’t put words in my mouth that weren’t there.
And while we’re at it, I didn’t see where d-pip stated anything about WHY the market was long, only that the COT showed a segment of it was. And it was said that way to back up the statement about not just blindly expecting a huge market drop on open.
I haven’t come across anybody here that thinks this, in fact quite the opposite.
In all the discussions I have seen on this topic so far, people seem to have a pretty good grasp on it.
Maybe its a good thing I stay out of chat rooms …lol
I am not an expert in COT report but I think there is a misunderstanding about how to use it.
We have to remember that COT is about fx futures and no the Spot market, so the information is limited.
Commercial positioning in the COT report is not that relevant as they use the future market to hedge and most of the commercial exchange is actually done in the spot market, that is why they look like dumb traders in the futures market, that most of the time are in the losing side of the trade. But they are not there for profiting or speculation, they need to offset the risk of their operations. On the other hand Non-commercials ride the trends set by fundamentals, that is why they always seem to be right in their trades.
Meanwhile in the spot market, commercials (as Master Tang said) can keep their money at the sidelines until the market turns and favors their trades, if you check volume in the weekly chart you can see that the fall of E/U is due to the lack of interest in the pair, so you can infer that huge amount of money is at the sidelines.
The reason extreme points in COT reports are somehow reliable to pick a reversal is because when speculators are so heavily net short/long, then nobody is left in the other side of the trade, this means price can fall/climb fast and less or no traders will follow the trend at extreme points.
When prices are at extreme points any fundamental factor will have an extraordinary effect, so speculators will cover any positions quickly (remember they are trading for profits) and price will climb or fall pretty fast.
I wouldn’t go worrying TOO much about it. So far as I can tell the ‘slam dunk’ opening gap was around 47 pips. Hardly ‘life changing stuff’!!! LOL!!!
Put it this way: the information shared here is worth WAY more than 47 pips (unless of course you’re trading $1 000 pips and were ALREADY short on Friday night in which case I’d have to retract this statement)!!! LOL!!!
